IN EDIT TUESDAY: Jeffchristie has posted the answer to this week's Moneytalk Final Exam Question: "My answer this week is Andy in Redwood city. I believe he has gotten on the air more often than any other caller to Moneytalk. Andy in Redwood City has racked up quite a few frequent flier miles here on the starship moneytalk. Honey has documented seven calls in the last eleven months. He was also on 11 February 2011 when Lynn was hosting. He said the government has failed us when it comes to solving the unemployment problem. Lynn got upset with him. He often gets argumentative with Bob defending DNC talking points."
Jeff also posted a full list of all the calls that have been documented on this blog -- VERY interesting ! You will find it in the comments section.
STOCK MARKET....Brinker said: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average....stands at 13075. The S&P 500 close to 1386, giving it a year-to-date total rate of return of 11%. Nasdaq at 2958. The stock market in general had a great week. When you look at this zero interest rate world we live in.....that's pretty good. And those of you who have been fully invested this year and able to take full advantage of this positive market environment we have seen, congratulations to you....
.....What we've seen this year is the market do what it always does in a situation like this year which is climbing the wall of worry.....The worries about the growth rate of the economy, the worries about Europe, the worries congress and its inability to function.....But what they really care about is return on investment, and I think most investors are very pleased with 11% S&P 500 total return year-to-date."
Honey EC: I'd like to congratulate Marketimer subscribers who follow Brinker's equity model portfolios II. As of the end of last month, it finally recovered almost all losses it incurred during the 2008 bear market. Only $600 more and it will be back to what it was five years ago. :) Brinker kept all Marketimer model portfolios fully invested throughout the 2008 bear and they have been recouping those losses since the March 2009 low. Unfortunately Marketimer model portfolio I is still about ten thousand dollars underwater from its October 31, 2007 high.
EARNINGS....Brinker comments: Good earnings reports so far -- a number of companies have reported. Some have disappointed, but 2/3 have reported positive earnings surprises for the second quarter -- the stock market likes this.
INTEREST RATES....Brinker said: "When you look at interest rates, you don't see much movement there because the Fed continues to hold them down."
JUNK BOND FUNDS....Brinker commented that junk bond funds have done very well. He recommends Vanguard High Yield Fund (VWEHX).
Honey EC: Brinker has included a 25% weighting of Vanguard's High Yield Fund in his (off-the-books) Marketimer income portfolio. The Vanguard Fund is now closed to new investors. Brinker has recommended Metro West Total Return bond Fund (MWTRX) as a substitute. I question the validity of that advice. MWTRX is quite different from VWEHX and is not a high yield fund.
SLOW GROWTH ECONOMY....Brinker comments: We got the real GDP number for the second quarter -- it can be revised -- was initially reported as 1.5 annual growth adjusted for inflation. The first quarter was revised upward to 2.0. For the first half, you have an annual rate of growth of 1 3/4% -- a slow-growth economy, below trend.
THINGS THE STOCK MARKET LIKES VERY MUCH.....Brinker comments: A slow-growing economy with rising earnings, very low inflation, very low interest rates. All of those things provide the fundamental underpinnings for stock prices.
ZERO TOLERANCE FOR RISK: Caller James from Alabama asked Brinker to recommend an investment for his parents in their mid-80s, who, because of memories of the depression, have no tolerance for risk. Brinker recommended FDIC-insured laddered CDs.
VANGUARD INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES: Caller Ron from Hot Springs said that he followed Marketimer model portfolio III, but now about half of his fixed income investments are in TIPS. "Brinker replied: Of course we don't have any of that fund at this time in our balanced model portfolio III which is on page 8 of the investment letter. We sold it all. Took profits in it. It was very good to us."
Honey EC: Brinker sold all holding to that fund in all of his portfolios, including the fixed income portfolio.
BEWARE OF INVESTING IN SOLAR AND WIND STOCKS....Brinker comments: I'd be careful. There's been so much money lost particularly in solar stocks, but also wind stocks, in the past couple of years....I'd probably only consider it speculation with money you are willing to lose.
INFLATION PROTECTED BOND FUNDS (TIPS)....Brinker comments: TIPS continue to have negative base yields...five year TIPS negative 1.17%....The only chance for return is inflation, otherwise you are losing money.
VANGUARD GINNIE MAE FUND (VFIIX): Caller Ron followed up by asking Brinker about Ginnie Mae fund. Brinker replied: "Well, we actually still have the Ginnie Maes in the portfolio. We have an allocation to the Ginnie Mae Fund in the portfolio and that fund has been absolutely incredible. It's been a great fund for us. We still have that in the balanced model portfolio III.....Hey, listen, believe it or not, there were people out there shorting the bond market because they thought interest rates were going to go up. They were selling short the bond market....And of course that was a bloody debacle for anybody that did that."
Honey EC: Oh my goodness, I wonder why Brinker never mentions the important fact that he has lowered his Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund holdings in model portfolio III. And his income portfolio is down to a puny 15%?
HOUSING MARKET....Brinker comments: In the opinion of an economist at Goldman Sachs, we are going to get a strong housing recovery. We'll see how that plays out....a lot of people would like to see that. It's definitely a positive for the economy.
THEY MAY DELAY FISCAL CLIFF....Brinker comments: President Clinton had to correct himself and apologize for saying that the fiscal cliff should be delayed after the White House got in an uproar about it. Now amazingly, congress is considering a delay in the automatic budget cuts on the fiscal cliff....until March -- a three month delay....These are the spending cuts that are supposed to kick in January 1, 2013....one of the ten-year, 1.2 trillion dollar, spending cut program. About $108 billion of it comes next year --- about half of that comes out of the Defense Department.....This would require a piece of legislation that would delay the automatic budget cuts that would fund the government through March (or later)....And would also extend the current tax rates and other tax laws.
NEW TAXES SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 1, 2013: Brinker covered this subject today, but he also covered it a couple of weeks ago and I reported on it in detail in my July 15th Moneytalk Summary.
FACEBOOK IPO FIASCO...Brinker comments: In all of my years in the canyons of Wall Street, I've never seen a bigger debacle than the Facebook initial public offering....Here's a stock that came public a few weeks ago amidst more hype than I've ever seen before.....When I think back to the high profile IPOs of the past, the Apple....even to the Google....I've never seen a bigger fiasco than Facebook. The stock cracked $24 on Friday...It lost over a third of its price in a very short period of time. So in addition to raising the price, the underwriter clowns decide they are going to increase the size of the number of shares they are selling.....Facebook opened at $42 on its way to $24....Facebook has lost $34 billion dollars in market value since its IPO two months ago.....On Friday, when the market was doing very well, Facebook lost another 12%.....
......The CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, he's a wealthy individual, but Friday, he lost $1.6 billion in stock value....He still has $12 billion in stock....I have no recommendation on this stock. I avoided like the plague on the IPO.....The P/E ratio on Facebook is double the price-earnings ratio on Google....Is that amazing or what? It's more expensive than Yahoo! which has a new CEO.....How much money are they making? They are not making any money. They are losing money. Facebook reported a net loss of $157 million for the quarter they reported on the end of the week.....In the fourth quarter of this year, there will be a release of a huge shares that will become available to the marketplace.
Honey EC: Blog reader, RP, sent the link to this article and video about Facebook: Zuckerberg Speaks!
WOULD INTEREST RATE INCREASES AFFECT GOLD AND SILVER....Caller Joe from Carmel asked Brinker if rising interest rates would negatively affect the price of gold and silver. Brinker replied: "Obviously the biggest future potential negative for any speculative metal is that speculators will take a hike. The only thing that can push the price precious metals higher is speculation because that's all it represents. A bar of gold bullion earns no dividend.....It's entirely dependent on what speculators are willing to pay for it at any given point.....When interest rates go up, there are holders of gold that would rather have the interest and will switch into interest bearing securities and sell their gold. So that's the connection between interest rates and gold.....
.....Regarding how to buy gold, and I DON'T OWN GOLD, but for my money, there's only one way and that's the Exchange traded Fund.....the symbol is GLD. It is backed by gold bullion. And from my point of view, IF I WERE INTERESTED IN OWNING GOLD, that would be the only way that I would consider owning gold....I would never go to numismatic gold coins."
Honey EC: I added the emphasis to Brinker's EXACT words above. In May 2009, Brinker added GLD to his Marketimer recommended Individual Issues List and it has been there ever since....So Mr. Brinker, are we to understand that your Marketimer recommendations are not your own cuppa tea?
BRINKER RECOMMENDS BUYING REAL ESTATE IN LAS VEGAS: Donna, the Prima Donna from Lincoln, said her son had move to Las Vegas and was thinking of buying a home. She asked Brinker for his opinion of the Las Vegas real estate market. Brinker replied: "I have to tell you, as a Nevada property owner, I think values are good right now. And I think that this is a good time to be a buyer...There's been a tremendous adjustment in prices in that market, and I think that you son has the right idea. A lot of good values out there, in my opinion."
Honey EC: It's easy to see why Brinker thinks now is a good time to buy in Nevada. But he no doubt wishes he would have waited awhile. He bought his condo at Lake Las Vegas for a cool million in 2006 and it is now estimated to be worth $217,346. This from Zillow:
20 Via Mantova UNIT 405 Henderson, NV 89011 Not for Sale Zestimate:$217,346 Beds:3 Baths:2.5 Sq ft: 2,021 Lot:--Type: CondoYear built: 2006 Last sold: Mar 2006 for $1,021,523BRINKER'S FUNNIEST REPLY OF THE DAY: Scott from Albuquerque said: "I've been exposed to some alternative energy ideas. Understand of course the debacle that's gone on with some of the green energy programs. Obviously that the president had put a lot of money into....."
Brinker replied: "By the way, that was not the president's money. Not to correct you, but so listeners will know. Unfortunately that was not the president's money that went down the drain on some of those deals. That was your money and my money that went down the drain. That was taxpayer's money. Let's get that straight. It wasn't his money."
Jeffchristie's Moneytalk Final Exam Question for today:
The most frequent caller to Moneytalk is:
A) Lynda Belinda from Yorba Linda.
B) Andy from Redwood city.
C) Donna Donna the Prima Donna.
D) Theodore from Vancouver.
Brinker's guest-speaker was Simon Lack: The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It's Too Good to Be True
San Francisco, Ca. KSFO 560: 1-4pm (KSFO archives Moneytalk Free on Demand for seven days after broadcast. You can download and listen on the go.)
67 comments:
Bob Brinker said:
Hey, listen, believe it or not, there were people out there shorting the bond market because they thought interest rates were going to go up.
Yes Bob, there were also people who were putting balanced funds in their fixed-income portfolios because they thought interest rates were going to go up.
I enjoyed checking out that Zillow link on Bob's condo. I was curious how much he had lost buying at the top of the market in one of the hardest hit areas. I checked out a few of his neighbors who were trying io sell. I saw this:
Bought 5/2006 for $965,000
Sold 5/2012 for $110.00
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20-Via-Mantova-UNIT-305-Henderson-NV-89011/70056379_zpid/
By the way, I've heard that Bob also offers a Real Estate Timer news letter.
Jeffects,
Yes, wonder how Bob Brinker feels having a condo right next to his sell for $110,000.
Brinker's condo is a penthouse, so that may have helped him a bit.
Heck, I could afford to be his neighbor -- YIKES, that will give him nightmares. LOL!
Here is your link live: 20 Via Montavo Unit 305 Henderson NV
Jeffects,
Yes, I heard that Bob Brinker's latest newsletter is called, "Brinker's Real Estate Timing-Advisor."
Like with stocks, Brinker is a buy-and-hold advocate, but he watches for those "buying-opportunities" and when the prices get low enough to become "attractive for purchase," he will send out a special online bulletin and announce it on the air.
Towards the end of the second hour Bob took a call from Theodore from Vancouver.
He also called in to Moneytalk back on 24 June 2012. Frankj identified him as a liberal activist. He started out by asking about the negative yields on certain government bonds but his real agenda was a rebuttal of what Bob said about how it would be wrong to raise taxes at this time. Bob must have been wise to him because he didn't let Theo get his dig in on taxes
What follows is a comment posted after the 24 June show:
Frankj noted:
"Caller Theodore from Vancouver. Serial caller to conservative talk shows in Portland, OR area. I recognized the name and the voice. He and BB were getting along swimmingly until Theo stepped in it.'
I found this Youtube audio that explains Theo's real agenda.
Theodore From Vancouver
Kudos to Bob for exposing this guy.
The HottieBee writes:
Heck, I could afford to be his neighbor
Then Da Brink would never get any sleep, he would be too busy repeatedly self pleasuring himself while thinking of you, the HottieBee laying there in bed, only a thin wall away. - LOL!
tfb
Tfb,
LOL! Your humor is a bit risque, but in light of the fact that this morning, "someone" sent some comments about my being able to afford to live next door to Brinker, that were really vicious, I think that "someone" deserves your bit of graphic humor.
I make no pretense of being wealthy like Bob Brinker -- never have. But on the other hand, I don't lie, cheat, steal or impersonate my father to get rich either.
Brinker said he doesn't own any gold. Then tell us Bob or Bobby, either one, why is GLD a Marketimer recommendation?
What a sad lack of integrity. Bernie Madoff on a smaller scale, but smarter because no actual law-breaking.
Honey, regarding your gold comment:
When I heard Bob say yesterday that he owns NO GOLD, I kept thinking I'd heard him sometime in recent years saying that he DID hold gold, and GLD specifically -- if memory serves.
So it was, and still is, a MT recommendation? That means that my memory DOES serve??
And that means The Bob is being deceptive yet again? Say it ain't so!
What a sad lack of integrity. Bernie Madoff on a smaller scale, but smarter because no actual law-breaking.
Depends on your viewpoint. The Ten Commandments are known as the laws of God and I can think of at least four Da BRink violates.
1. Thou shalt have no other gods before me.
I think you could make a more than fair case that Da Brink worships money. He certainly has more than he is likely to ever utilizes, and to use chicanery to obtain more, indicates a worship of monetary means.
4. Remember the sabbath day, to keep it holy.
When is MoneyTalk on? - nuff siad.
8. Thou shalt not steal.
Bingo - Knowingly using decpetion to enrich yourself to someone else's detriment is theft.
10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's goods.
Once again back to the lust for money issue.
So while he may not violate the laws of man he certainly is violating the laws of God.
tfb
Tfb, LOL! Your humor is a bit risque
I am risque? You are the one who treats us each and every week to a picture of your pussy. And you call me risque...sheesh. LOL!
tfb
P.S. it helps if you are a fan of "Are you being served".
"I make no pretense of being wealthy like Bob Brinker -- never have. But on the other hand, I don't lie, cheat, steal or impersonate my father to get rich either."
Nope. All you do is take insurance proceeds and a divorce settlement. Pretty close to living off the work of somebody else I would say.
You might be a loud mouthed bitch but you certainly are NOT a self made woman by any stretch.
Honey,
Any chance you could post the answer to Jeffchristie's Moneytalk Final Exam Question each week? Perhaps a few days after? TIA
DD,
That's a good idea. Let me check with Jeffchristie and see how he'd like to handle that. I expect to be talking to him from the Pacific to the Atlantic later today. :)
TFB...Yes, I am a fan of "Are You Being Served" -- a wonderful old British comedy.
I literally roared when I read what you said about the picture of my "pussy." LOL!!!!!!!!
For those who haven't seen this show that plays on PBS, do try to see some episodes of this comedy.
The vulgarity is all in the mind -- and Mrs. Slocum was always concerned about getting home and taking care of hers. :)
I hope you all read what an anonymous person wrote just above. He/she said:
"Nope. All you do is take insurance proceeds and a divorce settlement. Pretty close to living off the work of somebody else I would say.
You might be a loud mouthed bitch but you certainly are NOT a self made woman by any stretch."
I published it because this is the sort of thing that I often receive from an anonymous source, and the numbers increase when I show proof that Bob Brinker is less than trustworthy -- like recommending gold in Marketimer and then saying he owns none.
Today, I think he is also mad about my exposing how much money he lost on real estate. For a "trusted financial advisor" that doesn't inspire much confidence, does it?
I'm not making any specific accusations as to the identity of this person....you draw your own conclusions.
But let me state unequivocally that every thing he said about my personal life is totally MADE UP LIES.
I have never gotten any insurance settlement from anyone at any time, and I have never gotten a divorce settlement -- of any kind.
The only personal thing about myself that I have revealed on the internet is that my husband died unexpectedly -- very young by today's standard.
He and I were hiking at Rancho San Antonio Park not far from Stanford when he had a heart attack and died in front of my eyes.
You might be a loud mouthed bitch but you certainly are NOT a self made woman by any stretch.
Dearest asshole type dude, I hope to hell I get to run into you sometime, someplace.
I would enjoy watching you spit up blood, choking as your lungs fill with your own fluids, that frightened little look you all get when you realize you are suffocating in your own blood as the desperation creeps in.
It is interesting, at the last, your body spasms vigorously as you try to expel the fluids from your lungs, but of course you are simply expelling your own vital fluids, rather pointless, and I suppose terrifying.
Have a nice day.
tfb
Here are some examples from "Are You Being Served"
Mrs Slocombe's Pussy
tfb
Well, TFB, I think this person would never be brave enough to meet you face to face.
Heck, even though I think he may have actually stalked me physically (or hired someone to do it for him) he's never had the nerve to show his face to me.
Indeed, he makes sure he only sends comments to the blog because he is computer savvy enough to know that there is no way of tracing who sends them.
He too big of a coward to use email -- even with a phony address because he knows that contains an ISP#....
TFB...That's seven minutes of non-stop laughing out loud.
Mrs. Slocum's Pussy
Frankj:
Pursuant to JeffChristie's comment about Theodore from Vancouver. I listened to the youtube clip that JeffC put up.
Yep, that was our boy, the clip was from a Michael Berry show which originates in Houston and is carried on a Portland station.
Most of the clip is Berry excoriating Theodore -- something Berry can do very effectively. If there is a button that mutes the caller, Berry must have had his finger on it because Theo is not the type to sit still for that kind of criticism.
I enjoyed Are You Being Served but for British comedies the crown goes to Fawlty Towers. Only a dozen episodes produced in the 1970s with all of them top notch. John Cleese was brilliant as hotel host Basil Fawlty.
Birdbrain,
My all time favorite British comedy is Keeping up Appearances. I will watch reruns every chance I get.
Like all of them, you have to get acquainted with the characters, and this cast is fabulous.
Here is one of the episodes: Keeping Up Appearances
Bluce said: "When I heard Bob say yesterday that he owns NO GOLD, I kept thinking I'd heard him sometime in recent years saying that he DID hold gold, and GLD specifically -- if memory serves.
So it was, and still is, a MT recommendation? That means that my memory DOES serve??
And that means The Bob is being deceptive yet again? Say it ain't so!"
Bluce,
You made me stop and think about this and I think you may be right.
I've been too busy today to do the research, but I will. I think I may find it documented on this blog where he said he owned some gold.
Brinker's investment advice regarding gold is of no consequence.
Bob's precious metal holdings that serve him best is his silver tongue
and golden mike that he has cashed in on for decades.
A U Ric
DD ask...
Honey,
Any chance you could post the answer to Jeffchristie's Moneytalk Final Exam Question each week? Perhaps a few days after? TIA
Yes I can do that. My answer this week is Andy in Redwood city. I believe he has gotten on the air more often than any other caller to Moneytalk. Andy in Redwood City has racked up quite a few frequent flier miles here on the starship moneytalk. Honey has documented seven calls in the last eleven months. He was also on 11 February 2011 when Lynn was hosting. He said the government has failed us when it comes to solving the unemployment problem. Lynn got upset with him. He often gets argumentative with Bob defending DNC talking points.
December 19 2010
Caller Andy from Redwood City disagreed with Brinker that the tax cut extension will create jobs and he was for tariffs to protect union jobs. Brinker told him that he had recited all of the Democrat talking points very well and suggested that he contact Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
March 13 2011
Andy called in from Redwood city. He said he didn't agree with Bob's position on nuclear power but he didn't want to go into it. Then he quoted some statistics on tax revenues and felt they justified increasing taxes. Bob didn't agree. He said that the problems caused by Sacramento were the result of run away spending and mismanagement. Andy went on to blame prop 13.
May 1 2011
Andy in Redwood city called in the last hour. He talked about an effort to reinstate the Glass-Steagal Act. He claimed that some democrats supported it but NO republicans did. According to the Huffington Post John McCain was one of the sponsors of the bill. I don't know if Andy is just ignorant on this or if he is a liar with a political agenda.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
BI-PARTISAN EFFORT TO SELL U.S. DOWN THE RIVER...Caller Andy from Redwood City said he agreed with Brinker's monologue about the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. Brinker said: "I know I'm correct.....This is what drives me nuts, so many people out there are missing the point I made earlier. This is a bi-partisan effort to sell the United States down the river. It's not one party or the other. It's both of them."
Andy continued: "They are both against us. Phil Graham, Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton and Alan Greenspan did us in." Brinker replied: "There you go, you have two Democrats and two Republicans right there."
September 18 2011
Andy from Redwood City said that he totally disagreed with Bob on Warren Buffett. He said that when this country went to war in the past (he mentioned Lincoln, Civil War; Roosevelt, Spanish-American War; Wilson, WWI), the rich came up with the money to pay the debt -- but that this didn't happen with Iraq and Afghanistan.
Bob managed to talk him down and asked him what he thought was a fair amount of tax for high-earners. Andy said 50%. Bob reminded him that in California it's already there. Bob ended by saying, "Andy, you are so misinformed on this subject, it is sad."
02 October 2011
*Andy from Redwood City talked about Keynesian economics...Bob said he was "sick and tired" of the "distortions" of Keynes -- that Keynes recommended saving money in the good times to prepare for the bad times.
30 October 2011
BOB'S FUNNY OF THE DAY....Bob said: "Let's go out to California, welcome to Moneytalk." A familiar voice replied: "Hi Bob, this is Andy."
Honey EC: I need to point out that Bob ALWAYS begins his calls by introducing the caller by name and location -- always, always, always. LOL! I conclude that this is one of Moneytalk's Frequent Flyers, good old Andy from Redwood City.
Bluce,
I have spent some time searching the blog and cannot find anywhere that Bob Brinker has said he owns gold.
So we are back to the fact that he does not own it, calls it speculation and yet has it on his recommended issues list.
Another important fact. He has never given a buy-price on it or designated a limit on how much to own.
Since it is an ETF that holds only one thing (gold bullion), should one assume that it fits into his 4% rule? Or is it like SPY and VTI -- the 4% rule doesn't apply?
Brinker doesn't care what you conclude. He makes lists, repeats them every month and laughs all the way to the bank that people actually pay to read the same thing every month.
"I have spent some time searching the blog and cannot find anywhere that Bob Brinker has said he owns gold."
I don't know if Brinker ever said he owned gold but I have heard him say that if people want to own a small amount of GLD, or whatever the symbol is, as a hedge that he has no problem with that.
Faktia
Oops:
Facebook shares hit new low, 43% below IPO price
Excerpts:
The worst may be yet to come. On Aug. 16, 91 days after the IPO, insiders, such as company officers, directors and employees, can sell 268 million shares of stock. Between 91 and 181 days after the IPO, insiders can sell an additional 137 million shares.
Given the stock's plunge so far, investors are braced for an avalanche of available shares from insider sales, putting more downward pressure on the stock price.
It's a stunning reversal of fortune in a short period of time. Facebook is now the second-worst performer of all IPOs in the U.S. so far this year, says IPOScoop.com.
Around the time of the IPO, individual and institutional investors alike were clamoring for shares of the multibillion-dollar IPO. Facebook shares' precipitous 43% price drop is slightly better than the 51% decline by Renewable Energy Group, which went public in January.
The fallout from Facebook's dismal performance isn't confined to the billions of dollars erased from CEO Mark Zuckerberg's personal fortune. Analysts attributed at least part of Tuesday's selloff to the announcement of Facebook-related losses by a large Swiss bank. UBS Tuesday reported a disappointing 58% decline in quarterly profits, in part, to a 349 million franc loss ($357 million U.S.) from its handling of Facebook stock at the IPO launch. The bank says it lost money due to technical problems handling orders of Facebook stock for clients.
"Facebook doesn't have any friends on Wall Street or Silicon Valley," says Gaskins. "That's a problem. Their brand has been damaged a lot."
After mercilessly ridiculing the stock performance of Facebook, Mr B valiantly proclaimed "I avoided the IPO like the plague."
Does anyone here believe for a moment that he had any interest in these shares?
Mr 4%? I think not.
Much safer to criticize from the rear view mirror.
Birdbrain,
It sounds like you listened to Bob Brinker rant about Facebook. It seemed endless and a bit over the top.
I wonder if there isn't more to that story than meets the eye.
Perhaps he still stinging from being so very wrong about GOOGLE.
I might be able to find it in my old Suite 101 files I have on disc, but I remember that he told a caller to sell at about $100. I don't recall him mentioning it ever again because it's been rising ever since.
We also know that he has NEVER recommended APPLE, anywhere or anytime to subscribers or listeners. However, with the height of arrogance, a few weeks back, he was bragging how he owned APPLE.
So he recommends what he doesn't buy: Gold. And buys what he doesn't recommend and then brags about it: APPLE.
Nice, very nice. Meet "America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor", Mr Robert J. Brinker.
Okay this pisses me off:
"America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor
Brinker is not a Financial Adviser, he is a friggin' hack, market timer.
A financial adviser takes in to account individual circumstances.
Brinker does not; his advice on the whole is exceedingly dangerous in this regard and inaaporpraite. Brinker's show is akin to advising someone to perform their own appendectomy using Gray's Anatomy as a reference because they say their side aches. It really is disgraceful that he bills himself as a financial adviser.
I think the title Moneytalk is moderately appropriate. I believe he remains a consummate interviewer and certainly has interesting guests. And I don't even mind the market timing mumbo-jumbo (if you want to believe in the Loch Ness Monster go right ahead – and tell BigFoot I said hello) I only object to the disingenuous tactics he uses to hide is actual record.
But to call himself a financial adviser is really over reach. Calling Brinker a Financial Adviser is like calling a talk radio show psychologist a practicing therapist. I feel sorry for anyone who takes this hack seriously. It really is despicable behavior. "America's Most Trusted Financial Advisor" the same guy who recommends defraud financial institutions and lying about your assets – sheesh. Think about that one folks. Who would trust this guy?
tfb
"However, with the height of arrogance, a few weeks back, he was bragging how he owned APPLE."
He can brag that he owns ANY stock that he wants because he owns the total stock market index.
It just makes it sound better the way he does it.
Faktia
Faktia,
You know and everyone knows that Bob Brinker was not referring to owning Apple Stock in any indexes. He said he owned THE STOCK.
But nice try to spin for him.....
Oh I am not trying to spin for Bob Brinker, I am just saying he could claim that he owned Apple stock and he would not be lying.
I really don't know whether he owns more Apple stock that is not in the index or not. But he could claim that he owns almost ANY stock and it would not be lying. Do you see what I mean?
Faktia
Faktia,
Indeed I see what you mean.
You mean that Bob Brinker is such lying shyster that he would brag about owning a great stock, even though he only owns it in one of the stock market index mutual funds he recommends.
Yeah, I see that very clearly.
You say Brinker sold his TIPS funds. When was this? How have they done since he got out vs. the bond funds he kept?
VANGUARD INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES: Caller Ron from Hot Springs said that he followed Marketimer model portfolio III, but now about half of his fixed income investments are in TIPS. "Brinker replied: Of course we don't have any of that fund at this time in our balanced model portfolio III which is on page 8 of the investment letter. We sold it all. Took profits in it. It was very good to us."
Honey EC: Brinker sold all holding to that fund in all of his portfolios, including the fixed income portfolio.
Didn't he sell that fund a long time ago?
Vanguard says VIPSX is up 5.86% YTD with the admiral shares up 5.95%.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0119&FundIntExt=INT
GNMAs, VFIIX, are only up 2.22% YTD.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0036&FundIntExt=INT
The advice of another newsletter... I sold my GNMAs and bought TIPSs with the money and can say I'm quite happy with the results. What am I missing?
He can brag that he owns ANY stock that he wants because he owns the total stock market index.
It just makes it sound better the way he does it.
ROTFLMAO!
tfb
Tipsy asked: "Didn't he sell that fund a long time ago?"
Bob Brinker eliminated all Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX) from Marketimer portfolios in January 2011.
He also sold half of the Marketimer portfolio weightings in Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund at the same time.
At that time he increased the weighting in Vanguard High-Yield Fund and added Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund.
"Bob Brinker eliminated all Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX) from Marketimer portfolios in January 2011.
VIPSX
2011 = +13.24%
2012 YTD = +5.86%
"At that time he increased the weighting in Vanguard High-Yield Fund and added Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund."
I don't follow those. How have they done over the same period?
Thanks
Tipsy,
You asked how Vanguard Wellesley and High-Yield funds have done.
They have both done well. Although, they are totally different types of investments. The Wellesley Fund is a very conservative fund made up of about 65% income-paying stocks and 35% conservative bonds. As long as interest rates stay down, it's fine. It will react to stock market drops and interest rate increases.
The High-yield fund is a fairly conservative fund, but like all high-yield funds, it reacts strongly to stock market corrections or bears but mostly ignores interest rate changes.
During the 2008 bear, it dropped a lot -- actually, there were similar funds who did better during that year.
Brinker, of course, issued no sell signals on anything before that bear market, including the high-yield. Some of his subscribers wrote to me for advice on what to do. I told them if they had already suffered the drop, to stick with it. Of course it recovered.
But unlike Bob Brinker, I sold all of mine BEFORE the drop. He loves to rub it in that I went short bonds, but I am the one who made money on the high-yield drop by selling high and buying back in low.
The fund is now closed to new investors, so if I ever do sell it again, I will maintain a small holding so I can add to it when I'm ready.
"But unlike Bob Brinker, I sold all of mine BEFORE the drop. He loves to rub it in that I went short bonds, but I am the one who made money on the high-yield drop by selling high and buying back in low."
But you missed out on all those fat dividends while you were waiting so you have to figure that in too.
I don't think anybody can time the bond market any more than they can time the stock market.
buyhold
rasputin here: Great summary and discussion. Thanks for working.
Pimco's Bill Gross says stocks are dead and don't put your money in bonds either.
Gross: Death of Equites
Hi ya Ras!!
It's great to hear from you!
And thanks for letting me know you are reading my work -- makes it worthwhile when I get feedback and comments. :)
Mark Hulbert says rough times ahead for market. All of the "market advisors" he follows are too bullish. (That would include Bob Brinker.)
It sounds to me like he is predicting a real drop.
Watch Mark Hulbert in Marketwatch interview
Gross didn't say NOT to invest in stocks or bonds, he said just be ready for much smaller returns.
And work longer!
"Together then, a presumed 2% return for bonds and an historically low percentage nominal return for stocks – call it 4%, when combined in a diversified portfolio produce a nominal return of 3% and an expected inflation adjusted return near zero.
The commonsensical conclusion is clear: If financial assets no longer work for you at a rate far and above the rate of true wealth creation, then you must work longer for your money, suffer a haircut on your existing holdings and entitlements, or both."
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Cult-Figures.aspx
I forgot to add that Gross has been way off base and totally wrong before. He sold all his treasuries with disastrous results. His funds performance dropped into the cellar and he later said he was wrong and he apologized profusely.
Well, Hal,
Did you notice that I didn't say you should believe Gross, but he is well-known financial advisor who has been right enough that Marketwatch interviewed him.
When's the last time Bob Brinker was asked to give his prognosis on Marketwatch?
Actually, if you asked 10 people on the street if they ever heard of Bill Gross and Bob Brinker, they would probably answer: "Bob" who?
"Did you notice that I didn't say you should believe Gross, but he is well-known financial advisor who has been right enough that Marketwatch interviewed him."
You really should check Gross out. He's not really a financial advisor but the multi-billionaire owner of PIMCO the largest bond fund company in the world.
He is the so called Bond King and is constantly all over the place giving interviews.
To compare Gross to Brinker a newsletter hack is just silly.
Hal,
I must have gotten the wrong impression. I thought you were the one comparing him to Bob Brinker, who regularly slams those who shorted bonds.
At least Gross has admitted that he made the wrong call when he sold all Treasuries too soon.
When is the last time that you ever heard Brinker admit any call was wrong?
Actually, if you asked 10 people on the street if they ever heard of Bill Gross and Bob Brinker, they would probably answer: "Bob" who?
Actually I have mentioned the show in mixed company before and the response I got was "oh you mean that really boring guy on the radio"!
tfb
When is the last time that you ever heard Brinker admit any call was wrong?
Actually, when was is last actual market call (i.e. all in or out) so you have something to actually track. If I thought I could actually time the market I would be either in it or out of it and I might use leverage to magnify returns.
Of course if I was a two-bit bull-shitter huckster hawking a newsletter I would not make a definitive call. I would list stocks and EFTs that I never mad a recommendation on. I would buy the Total Stock Market so then I could say I owned any stocks that showed great performance and I would dollar cost average rather then say buy or sell. But then if I did that I would not have subscribers now would I, because no one would be stupid enough to pay for such schlock advice now would they? Nawwww...
tfb
Just FYI
(August 1st, 2012) A recent article in New York Times by Geraldine Fabrikant put the salary of Bill Gross, the legendary manager of PIMCO Total Return Fund, at $200 million per year. The number two most recognizable name at PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, was reported to make $100 Million. The source for these numbers was not disclosed, and has come under criticism for being too high by Felix Salmon who writes for Reuters. I believe there is a strong argument to be made that even if Bill Gross made $1 billion per year that he would be undercompensated by several measures.
The New York Times article quotes Bill Gross as saying, “We all earn too much, but I can sleep because of the multiples we have provided for our clients over the years.”
http://www.learnbonds.com/bill-gross-compensation/
Does anyone else notice a sense of arrogance in Bob's voice? I find that attitude quite irritating.
I believe one caller on 7/29 asked Bob about giving significant financial assets to family members. Did anyone else consider Bob's reply to that question quite lacking? He never brought up the possibility of gift taxes or having to file IRS Form 709, and he did not suggest any kind of professional estate planning.
I assume the individual had a high net worth and felt he could give a large gift. But how does he know for sure? Bob never asked about his age, health, or expected longevity.
Ken:
Good catch! Your post reminded me of that phone call. When it ended, I thought, wait -- he didn't say anything about how such large gifts can trigger the gift tax.
You can give $13K each year to anyone you want. It is not counted toward your gift tax exclusion when your estate is settled.
You can also pay for college or medical expenses in any amount, no $13K limit. Those don't count as gifts, but you MUST pay the money directly to the school or medical provider.
If I remember the gist of the call correctly, BB asked the caller "do you need the money?" The caller said, no, and BB said then give it to them.
If you give away more than $13K in one year, you have to fill out the gift tax form w/ your return, but no taxes are due. The excess gifts are kept track of via this form and ultimately things are settled when your estate is settled. It is the estate that gets tagged, not the recipient.
-- Frankj
Frankj:
Sad faces in Sacramento:
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-stock-crash-hoses-californias-tax-revenue-2012-8?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29
FrankJ,
Oops...they'll be picking my pocket some more. Here's your link hot:
Facebook Stock Crash Hoses California's Tax Revenue 2012
Oops...Facebook hit another new low:
By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shares of Facebook Inc. fell below $20 on Thursday, hitting a record low for the third straight day.
Ken and FrankJ,
Thanks for your comments about that call from the man who asked Bob Brinker if he thought it was okay to give away $260,000 in stock to their kids. The caller said he was 86 and his wife is 89 years old and had a large amount of money in 5 1/2% CDs.
For those interested in listening to the call, it's in the second hour-- about 15 minutes into it.
Ken you asked: "Does anyone else notice a sense of arrogance in Bob's voice? I find that attitude quite irritating.
I believe one caller on 7/29 asked Bob about giving significant financial assets to family members. Did anyone else consider Bob's reply to that question quite lacking? He never brought up the possibility of gift taxes or having to file IRS Form 709, and he did not suggest any kind of professional estate planning.
I assume the individual had a high net worth and felt he could give a large gift. But how does he know for sure? Bob never asked about his age, health, or expected longevity.
Yes...all excellent points. To me, it seems like Bob Brinker sometimes lapses into speaking to certain people other than the caller or audience.
Ken,
I felt like Brinker might have been "bragging" or "rubbing in" what he has done rather than actually caring about the caller enough to find out if he could afford to be as generous with his children as Brinker probably has been with his son and daughter -- and "young sprout" grandchildren. We know he has a few of those.
Brinker also becomes quite pompous when telling callers how they should provide for their grandchildren's education.
Brinker is so used to the Marketimer money train rolling in after Moneytalk airs that he forgets that there are actually people who struggle to help their own children through college and then have to prepare for retirement.
Those cushy 3 hour per week, 3 weeks per month jobs, are not plentiful. But a tip for those who find one, be sure you have a "investment letter" ready to sell. Preferably, one that dangles market-timing carrots. LOL!
I believe one caller on 7/29 asked Bob about giving significant financial assets to family members. Did anyone else consider Bob's reply to that question quite lacking? He never brought up the possibility of gift taxes or having to file IRS Form 709, and he did not suggest any kind of professional estate planning.
I assume the individual had a high net worth and felt he could give a large gift. But how does he know for sure? Bob never asked about his age, health, or expected longevity.
This is a perfect example of what I meant by Brinker not being a Financial Adviser but rather a hack.
tfb
FrankJ, Honeybee, and tfb,
Thanks for your comments on the gifting, and I stand corrected on some of the details on the caller.
Over the years, I've noticed many questions that I felt were not answered very well. Some responses have even been dreadful. In other cases the information was just plain wrong.
Several years ago I even emailed Bob to correct him on a statement regarding I-Bonds. The next week I heard him pass along the correct information on the air which made me feel very good. I could not find an email address for him anywhere, but I wound up sending the note to webmaster at bobbrinker.com. That must have worked.
I remember one question to Bob about a closed end bond fund. It was clear that Bob knew little if anything about closed end funds which have additional risks. In addition, he never asked if the fund was leveraged or unleveraged. That is the first question one should ask. The leveraged funds can be quite volatile and come with higher risk.
Regarding the Arrogance, I hear it in almost everything he says. Just listen to his tone of voice all through the broadcast. If he says the S&P 500 is up 9% year-to-date his tone of voice is also saying I told you to stay invested.
"I assume the individual had a high net worth and felt he could give a large gift. But how does he know for sure? Bob never asked about his age, health, or expected longevity."
Nobody, not even Brinker, has time on a radio show to ask questions about age, health or life expectancy. In the long run it really doesn't make any bit of difference and it turns off about 99% of his audience who just doesn't care.
Bob gave a general answer that applies to most and that's all that counts.
He isn't running a doctor's office you know.
KSFO
Anonymous said...
Nobody, not even Brinker, has time on a radio show to ask questions about age, health or life expectancy. In the long run it really doesn't make any bit of difference and it turns off about 99% of his audience who just doesn't care.
Bob gave a general answer that applies to most and that's all that counts.
He isn't running a doctor's office you know.
KSFO
You must no be a regular Moneytalk listener. Bob often asks about age, health and life expectancy when answering a question for someone about taking a lump sum retirement verses a monthly payment. He even asks if they smoke.
=============================
Bob gave a general answer that applies to most and that's all that counts.
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Nonsense.
Arch
KSFO, you don't know what you're talking about. One aspect of the show that BB mentions frequently is the educational aspect. So, the host should not give general answers for specific questions.
He frequently asks about the caller's situation. It provides info he needs to give a reasonably good answer and it give the audience some perspective.
-- Frankj
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