Sunday, August 12, 2018

August 12, 2018, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Pre-recorded Monologues and Repeated Old Calls

August 12, 2018....Bob Brinker was not live on Moneytalk....(comments welcome)

In Bob Brinker's absence today, here are some investing tips, ingenious analysis and great humor sent by top-notch gurus on this blog - for your enjoyment and entertainment:

TODAY'S "WORN-OUT RETREAD" PROGRAM, COPYRIGHTS AND BANANAS:

Vegas Vulcanizing has left a new comment on your post 

Could hear the deafening whine generated by those worn-out retreads on the greasy Clinker Highway today. Gosh, even the roadkill and the empty beer cans were stale leftovers from days of yore. Could feel a snooze or an oil change coming on rapidly, whichever arrived first.

But then my head jerked back, as if yanked into the present rudely by an audible screech, by a comment seemingly spliced and diced into the trailing entrails of the radio show's first hour. It was a pin prick heard 'round the world, "From the islands of... to the shores of... (you know the drill)"

The radio DJ said, with an intentional Hollywood dramatism (quoted loosely, haven't seen the instant replay yet) "...and our broadcasts are...(insert drama) copyright...(more drama) protected."

What's that supposed to mean? Is it that people can't discuss what he said because if someone didn't hear the original broadcast with its commercials then it's a copyright steal to tell them? That sounds like dumbass logic to me, as is his statement.

If he's not reading the latest M* thread and intentionally commenting on it, I'll be a monkey's uncle. Got a banana? 

LOOK AT PERCENTAGES, NOT NUMBERS:

birdbrain said...

I have informally advised more than a few folks over the years about investing and an saddened with the lack of basic mathematic knowledge that has been heard.

Investors may hear on the news "the Dow fell 100 points." Is this bad? Terrible? No big deal? As I say, you need to look at the percentage change. Had the Dow been at 1000, that would represent a ten percent decline, a financial earthquake for a market index. With the Dow currently over 25000 it would take a 250 point drop to represent only a one percent slip.

Unless you trade equities (as I did in a former life), and have a long term term outlook with your retirement account, look at market moves on a weekly or quarterly basis. Forget the day to day gyrations. More often than not after five days of wild swings the index you follow will be close to where it started.

Thank you for attending. Class dismissed.
July 31, 2018 at 11:49 AM
 
BOND INVESTING, BALANCED FUNDS AND THE ENERGIZER BUNNY:

Trees
said:

I read of the benefits of pivoting from growth stocks when they are high priced to value and dividend paying stocks. This is the category wherein Wellington lies.

Also, we read that bonds may have a weaker future given the expected interest rate increase over long term future. It may be better to be 70% stocks with bonds reserved for safe money.

We know how hard the bond market or income producing investments are, given Bob's costly investment advice to stay ultra short duration for some years now. From my personal research, my faith in knowledge of the income investment market is weak, but my faith in the Wellington's expertise is high. An active managed fund has better return in this category. May be do to the knowledge of real risk vs return and not just some radio host's easy talking point.

Also, these balanced funds have return opportunity to increase the bond or stock percentage within appropriate time periods. The one referred to does typically have low a percentage of foreign stock for same purpose to increase yield and lower volatility. Rebalancing the funds investment occurs not upon some random year anniversary, but upon intelligent time frame. For example, best to let winning bets run. Yet, it is wise to pull money from winners to invest in value such as our lower priced bonds at some point that I'm clueless to know.

I've moved some investments and have 50% of portfolio in cash. There isn't much cost to be in cash, now, since markets are going sideways. Better for the short term to be in the low interest trading account. Not for the long term, but for some buying opportunity if such appears. I think a boatload of investors are doing likewise and as a result no opportunity will appear unless? No one knows. My retirement plan was to spend down taxable IRAs before Social Security and that is a 5 year span. Most will advise to stay in safe investments for this short time period.

I'm thinking that the economy could do extremely well during the Trump reign and if so could be another 8 yrs after that. So, many good things that know one could have thought were possible. This Energizer bunny is pushing hard to MAGA. Those aren't empty words, apparently. We'll see in the long term if he can be successful. IMHO, everything is spot on. Early in the political campaign I liked the guy after hearing his management philosophy. Get the best you can get to do a good job and empower them to do so. This is good management to delegate and hold these people accountable, Trump knows how to market and manage the Left and their press. Politicians in general can't delegate as they have crafted their popularity and career gains by grabbing all the credit.

Listen Talk Radio:
TALKOFCONNECTICUT;  



88 comments:

Honeybee said...

.
Another Moneytalk without Brinker having to leave his easy chair or miss his golf game with Jr.

Already selling his "investment letter" to people that think he would never deceive them in any way, while he is deceiving them into thinking the program is not recycled by splicing old calls and playing old monologues:

2018:
January 14: Reruns
February 11: Reruns
March 11: Reruns
April 8: Reruns
May 13: Reruns
May 27: Reruns
June 17: Reruns
July 1: Reruns
July 8: Reruns
August 12: Reruns

Stinky said...

What is that - four weeks in a row he was live?

Give the man a break. He CLEARLY deserves a vacation week.

Bluce said...

Honey: Not to mention the poor slobs who PAY FOR his podcasts, erroneously thinking they are all current.

Honeybee said...

.
Stinky....Nope, not four weeks in a row - only three weeks in a row of live shows.

He NEVER works four weeks in a row..

But he still deserves a vacation if he wants one. That is why I don't understand why he just doesn't say it's a vacation.

Jim said...

Brinker probably home watching the final round of the PGA Championship.

Unknown said...

OLD MAN WALKING!!

Honeybee said...

.
Just a word of encouragement to all the Trump-haters who spew their venom at this blog - which shows they are mentally ill because they know I not only don't publish, I only read the first few words and then hit delete - here's my message to you:

Make them longer, longer, longer! That gives me more satisfaction as I hit the delete button knowing how much time you wasted.

LOL!

Vegas Vulcanizing said...

Could hear the deafening whine generated by those worn-out retreads on the greasy Clinker Highway today. Gosh, even the roadkill and the empty beer cans were stale leftovers from days of yore. Could feel a snooze or an oil change coming on rapidly, whichever arrived first.

But then my head jerked back, as if yanked into the present rudely by an audible screech, by a comment seemingly spliced and diced into the trailing entrails of the radio show's first hour. It was a pin prick heard 'round the world, "From the islands of... to the shores of... (you know the drill)"

The radio DJ said, with an intentional Hollywood dramatism (quoted loosely, haven't seen the instant replay yet) "...and our broadcasts are...(insert drama) copyright...(more drama) protected."

What's that supposed to mean? Is it that people can't discuss what he said because if someone didn't hear the original broadcast with its commercials then it's a copyright steal to tell them? That sounds like dumbass logic to me, as is his statement.

If he's not reading the latest M* thread and intentionally commenting on it, I'll be a monkey's uncle. Got a banana?

Honeybee said...

.
Correction and apology to Stinky:

You are right!

I was wrong!

Sheesh, I just couldn't believe that Bob Brinker was on live four weeks in a row.

I thought pigs would have to fly before that happened. :)

Anonymous said...

Re: Brinker's show, and Brinker himself: To borrow from the old Miller Lite commercials, "I feel strongly both ways."

On the negative side: There's no question that he's mailing it in these days. And for several years really. The show has gotten repetitious, and there's little territory he covers that he hasn't covered many times before.

BTW: I don't know why the promos say he's done the show for 25 years. Unless there were several years he wasn't on, and then he came back, he's done the show for more than 32 years. (Maybe they're subtracting the days he's taken off!)

On the positive side: Full disclosure, in my previous life I covered TV and radio for a large newspaper. I once did a long Sunday feature on radio shows, local and national, that dealt with finances. Bob was a pleasure to interview, a real mensch. And, looking back, he was about the only one I talked with who wasn't full of it.

My investing background would be graded a C-minus or D-plus. It's not that I made poor choices; I just didn't invest enough. But, considering the airwaves are full of sharks, gypsies, tramps and thieves, Bob was always level-headed and his advice often several cuts above most. With him as a guide, I did pretty well. That I didn't do better was all on me, not him.

When you look at his list of affiliates, it's dwindling each year, and a lot of major cities have fallen off. I think it's likely that the show is on borrowed time. I'll be honest, for all his faults, and sometimes spotty track record, it's sort of comforting to listen to him. Even now.

I'll miss him when he's gone.

Jayne, not my real name said...

You know, that Morningstar discussion forum about BB is weird. I go there maybe once a quarter, but I always see comments by users whose handle is a bastardized key word from a discussion or a contributor over here.

It might be an investigative attempt to "cross-link" identities. For instance, if I post a comment here under the handle "Motor Mom" about dividends and then later an entry appears at M-star from "MotorMomDiv" with an opposite view, the investigator is expecting me to dispute the post and self-identify that I visit both sites and hold a certain view.

Is that what is referred to as the "bots" over there?

Honeybee said...

.
Note to Anonymous....

You made the cut of the 1% that I publish of posts that do not have a Google account or at least a "handle" that can become recognizable to me, but only because I believed your comments were honest and well-thought out.

Please create an identifying handle, and use it so that we can get to know you.

Honeybee said...

.
Jayne not my real name.....

That's interesting, but I can't tell you anything about Morningstar.

All I know is that when we use the word "bots" here, we are referring to people who kiss the Bob Brinker's ring. And will say and do anything to discredit anyone on the internet who says anything negative about them.


Jay said...

Honeybee - Appreciate your running my comments as Anonymous.

This time I clicked Name/URL. (I wasn't sure what was meant by URL.)

Hopefully this works. Thanks.

Honeybee said...

.
Jay...yes, that is fine.

As far as I can tell, the URL-word means nothing unless you want to put in a link to your own blog or website.

I may add a not above that posting-window that it is not required.

Unknown said...

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/feds-collect-record-individual-income-taxes-through-july-still-run. I'm sure Bob won't mention the Trump tax cuts when discussing the deficit.

Trees said...

I'm planning on reinvesting our HSA (long term) to replace long term health care insurance. So, maybe 20 years of compounding returns. I would like a higher risk aggressive investment for this need. Looking at Amazon and IJR. Wow, no thank you. AMZ sits at 350 p/e. No way is the magic sauce of Amazon worth this premium. It is in bubble phase. Sure the sales generated per employee is something over a million dollars and the company does not have much need for capital spending, but as with all vaporware, the secret sauce could be copied, replicated, and easily hit the market running. Some young entrepreneur is already plotting.

IJR or small caps are on a huge run as well p/e 50.14. Small caps may be a good place to hide if we have trade war. VTI sits at 26.21 p/e and Wellington 16.20.

I read a piece that had info on how the different sectors performance during the downturns. The .com bust and financial recession. Found the value large cap got hit hard in the financial bust (Wellington). The fund did extremely well during the .com bust and not that bad in the recession. The article's point was that each downturn is different with different winners and losers. I will add the biggest losers are usually the ones priced high.

Tesla is another high p/e company that appears to be supported by a rich fan club. I have manufacturing background and read about Tesla from their beginning. Basically, it was luck to be at forefront of a battery car hype and environmental movement. So, much garbage being spun to focus on value of battery car. Also, China with our strong dollar at this time was a extremely cost effective source of manufacturing low volume. New companies could achieve startup for production for pennies on the dollar compared to U.S. typical costs. Musk did the same as Bill Gates. Taking the already available technology to mass production. Stealing much of it and running on the forefront of popular movement. Tesla competition has caught up. The competition has lower cost product of better quality and engineering. No way should Tesla be valued over Ford. Bubble.

gabe said...

Trees: AMZN was a very good buy 10 years ago.....A $1000 invested would return approximately $23,000 today without reinvested dividends.

Gabe

birdbrain said...

Honey,

I'm flattered and humbled that you would include my past ramblings in your, cleverly, repeat of past comments to coincide with Mr B's rehash of previous calls. However, the fine print of our agreement specifies any secondary use of my words triggers residual monetary compensation. You will be contacted by my legal rep, Frankj esquire.

I'm sure you have seen his late night cable commercials, accompanied by scantily clad women as he belts out his slogan to a catchy beat. "Debts you can't pay? Call Frankj!"

Wait a minute. Could this be your cohort with the Buzz? Possible conflict of interest, never mind.

Honeybee said...

.
Birdbrain,

ROFLOL!

I shouldn't admit this, but I have been doing a two-step around your copyrights - just a bit ahead of your legal team, but I can't speak for Frankj.

Honeybee said...

.
Any lawyers in the house?

Over on Morningstar Bob Brinker message board, someone posting as Bobnotbrinker posted this.

Anyone know if this would apply to Moneytalk?

47 CFR 73.1208 - Broadcast of taped, filmed, or recorded material.
(a) Any taped, filmed or recorded program material in which time is of special significance, or by which an affirmative attempt is made to create the impression that it is occurring simultaneously with the broadcast, shall be announced at the beginning as taped, filmed or recorded. The language of the announcement shall be clear and in terms commonly understood by the public. For television stations, the announcement may be made visually or aurally.

(b) Taped, filmed, or recorded announcements which are of a commercial, promotional or public service nature need not be identified as taped, filmed or recorded.

Bluce said...

Honey: Haha! Veddy veddy intellesting about Bobby Binky's phony "live" shows!

I'm not a lawyer, but I have a retainer with Dewey, Screwem & Howe. I will contact them.

Stinky said...

Very interesting post on M* from Bobnotbrinker.

He poses an interesting question. Is Brinker violating FCC rules by playing previously recorded monologues and calls without being identified as such.

To Honey's prior message - I'm definitely not a lawyer. Nor do I play one on TV.

But I do think that somebody should send a "communique" to Brinker, asking if he's violating FCC rules. While they're at it, they could also send a "communique" to the radio stations carrying Brinker's broadcasts, letting them know that there's a potential FCC violation from one of their hosts.

Honey, please keep monitoring M*. It will be fascinating if any of the Brinker-bots response to the M* message.

Jim said...

I think the broadcast of July 1 2018 needs to be examined regarding this law. It was not live and was a compilation of old calls, however during the monologue Brinker said something like "It is now July" or "We are now in the month of July". To say that in the monologue on July 1 while not being live seems like a clear attempt to create an impression that it is occurring simultaneously with the broadcast.

Honeybee said...

.
Jim…..There have been a couple of other times that Brinker interjected some kind reference to a date that were obviously added to make the audience think he was there live.

I just wish that I had documented them when I heard them. I will from now on - and I will also document them in plain sight on the blog.

frankj said...

birdbrain said,

"I'm flattered and humbled that you would include my past ramblings in your, cleverly, repeat of past comments to coincide with Mr B's rehash of previous calls. However, the fine print of our agreement specifies any secondary use of my words triggers residual monetary compensation. You will be contacted by my legal rep, Frankj esquire."

Birdbrain's unprecedented request puts me in a delicate ethical position. One where indeed, a conflict of interest may exist on my part. Birdbrain has requested my assistance but at the same time I am part of the Blog Research Team and as such I provide assistance to Honeybee.

My proposal is that birdbrain receive some nominal compensation for HB's re-use of his posted comments. Ms. HB pushed back at first, pointing out that any posting on her blog becomes her property and can be used as she sees fit and she was in no position to compensate every "yahoo" who tried to extort funds.

I reminded her that birdbrain was the Chief Operating Officer of the almost-defunct newsletter "BulbTimer," a publication devoted to the preservation of incandescent light bulbs which was founded in response to Draconian federal legislation outlawing the traditional light bulb. Ms. HB was the editor/publisher and yours truly was the Marketing Director.

Her reaction, "Oh yeah, I remember now, so I'll make an exception for him only."

Because you are a valued client I bargained hard on your behalf. As a savvy businessman and consumer I think you will appreciate the settlement:

Ms. HB has agreed to provide compensation in the form of grocery store discount coupons which she will clip from the newspaper. The amount is not to exceed $10 worth of savings. These will be mailed to my law offices where I will deduct my fees and forward the remaining coupons to the address we have for you which is: General Delivery, Tucumcari, NM.

I would point out that Ms. HB is also a hard bargainer and I had to (reluctantly) agree that you would accept this settlement without recourse.

Best wishes,

Frankj Esq.

Anonymous said...

The Total Market Index fell below January highs.
Kinda happy I got stopped out with a 5% hit.
Sitting in $1.6 mil cash at the moment.
What to do with cash st the moment is my question
Please advise.

Over to you.

Gwen Miller
San Jose

tfb said...

Sitting in $1.6 mil cash at the moment.
What to do with cash st the moment is my question


This is one of the perils of market timing. If you are in a tax advantaged account you likely can get enough of return to beat inflation if you extend out your maturities. The trouble with that of course is you may lock yourself in if the market does drop(and it will, eventually) by going into extended maturity debt obligations and to be able to buy into the market on dip without taking a hit to principle. So likely even if in tax differed you are likely losing to inflation. And if you are in taxable, between income taxes and inflation it is likely you will be looking at an annual negative return.

This then, is one of the many troubles with market timing.

Trees said...

I have cash on the side to, but for a different reason. Looking for a buying opportunity. Much of the hype over Trump is overblown and business know this and continue to invest. Ed Yardeni has a good take on future economics, that I believe the best I've read, lately. It's hype to say our economy will maintain high growth, but it may or probably continue an upward trend. Inflation shouldn't be a concern given how jealous the feds are to raise rates. The fed won't be over jealous either way given, the improving means and methods they invoke. Yes, anything could happen, but I doubt world leaders desire trouble and look just to strike a good national bargain for themselves. Something they took for granted in bygone years. Thanks to our weak democracy/representatives that historically take the easy path, then sell citizens in the futility to do anything different. That or they come up with some lame excuse to use our wealth for good will. Notice this phenomena is always present when government reps attempt to negotiate with labor. Can't blame them as it is easy to spend other people's money. They just need to fool the public and with our weak investigative press (partisan) an easy ploy.

kenp11 said...

@Gwen Miller

Total Stock Market fell below January's high.

You do not have any dividend funds?

frankj said...

Gwen, we don't know enough about you to offer any solid advice although what tfb said was all true.

How old are you, or if you don't want to reveal that, how many years from retirement, or are you already in retirement?

Is this 1.6 million your entire investment money? Or was it the stock market portion? If so, what is your total investment money and is it in bonds or what?

Is there other income? SocSec, pension, etc., and is that covering your expenses or do you need income from your investments to cover expenses.

FritzZener said...

Nice post over at M* by Bobnotbrinker.

The argument that I am mooting is that is a moot point to try and mute the M* posters who insist upon muting the truth about Brinker reruns.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Frank.
I am currently retired at 62 with 100% cash.
Social Security pays my $800 per month.
I rent, have no car or any debts.
Where can I park my cash for security and income I don’t know.

Gwen

gabe said...

AMZN closed 1.23% higher. Unbelievable Corp. Also higher after hours.

Gabe

Bluce said...

Stinky is not mute nor moot.

Stinky said...

Bluce, thanks.

Just throwing a fishing line into the water over on M*. Seeing who or what bites.

Maybe radio silence, maybe not. As Brinker would say, “We will know in the fullness of time.”

tfb said...

Gabe (all)

Any idea why the Federal Government has not moved to break up Amazon, Google, Facebook etc under anti-trust regulations?

I get how difficult it may be to break them up...but what has surprised me is the lack of investigation into the possibility by the Government.

I think I know why they haven moved, but am curious what others think

tfb

tfb said...

Gwen,

A few thoughts. One , you should spend some time with longevity calculators and try and determine how long you may live. Here is a good one.

http://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/#13

Based on the result you may wish to rethink drawing your Social Security at age 62. Please note, you can withdraw your benefit and pay it back within the first 12 months. This may be good idea based on your assumed longevity. The reason for this, is that SS is indexed to inflation and therefore acts as defacto inflation indexed annuity which can be very pricey to purchase on your won. Inflation is the primary reason people feel the need to keep a high portion of their portfolio in equities in retirement.

I have used a number of longevity calculators and it is sobering. In my case the lowest numbers I have show me with needing to plan for 40 years in retirement.

We really need to know what your expenses are. 3 figures are good to know:

01 A bare bones, this is what it costs me to live a minimal lifestyle number

02) A desired happiness lifestyle budget. This allows for the small luxuries that make life enjoyable and give it that sweet flavor. This is your normal lifestyle.

03) A fly me to the moon budget, of your fantasy lifestyle. I strongly suggest everyone budget for a couple of years of high living, even if it is not really you, simply because you only go around once.

Everything flows from knowing what your lifestyle expenses are.

In addition do have financial legacy desires?

tfb

Bluce said...

tfb: The first answer to your question that comes to mind is that those companies are doing The Establishment's dirty work for them, so why mess with something that works so well?

"Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean that 'they're' not out to get me."

Bluce said...

Eh, just took that lifetime calculator test. I will be 68 next week and it says I have 21 years left but I doubt it -- that would make me 89. My parents both died at 86.

They were very religious and NEVER smoked or drank. I've been drinking for over 50 years and used to smoke too, although I quit 19 years ago.

Despite maybe better available health care in the past 20 or so years since my parents died, I never figured I would out-live them and still don't think I will.

But it ain't over until the Weight-Challenged Black Transcontinental Gender sings. (I hope that doesn't offend anyone)

tfb said...

Bluce,

Not only exactly what I was thinking, but more, what I know to be true.

tfb

tfb said...

Weight-Challenged Black Transcontinental Gender

Oprah?

Bluce said...

tfb: They're going after "the fringe" first, then they'll come for us (if we live long enough).

Famous last words: "It can't happen here."

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
-- Martin Niemöller

gabe said...

tfb: Too many powerful special interests? However, the FAANG Group ( minus 2) in my case, have done exceptionally well for me!

And, that is all that matters.

Gabe

Trees said...

BlueZone.com has a vitality test that was rated high. It's on submenu, takes about 5 minutes. They give you healthy age, expected age, and possible age. Also, some things you can do to increase lifespan. It was still was within one year of Bluce's link. My healthy life is seven years less than lifespan. Eighty three healthy, ninety expected.

Financial advice splits retirement into go-go, slow-go, and no-go years. Spending should be highest in the go-go years. Spending will naturally decrease every year in retirement. Good to spend IRA money upfront before receiving SS in my opinion as the income/tax rate should be less. Funny, I read the Roth is the last account to spend as it best value is to top off income needs without jumping to higher tax bracket. The advice guy then stated that this commonly results in the account going to inheritance. The Roth never made sense to me and boy did they hype its benefits.

Maxing SS is good for reducing old age health care cost, another benefit. Personally, even with expectations of lower longevity, still best to max SS for ensuring income. If you chose wrong, does it matter to you anymore? IOWs maximising this income will make the future brighter or financially easier on yourself. Also, since the value is high and rated the best guarantee of income you have in the uncertain future it's best for both spouses to do likewise. Financial advising industry will only quantify the strategy to maximise payout or to enable earliest withdrawal to save investment money. I'm thinking these guys have a natural conflict of interest as financial guys will always want their clients to save more, retire later, and spend less. Why? They personally make more and are competing with government SS benefits. This is why they claim you can't rely on SS anymore or that you best spend less than 4%.

Society in general would love for you earn and work until death. Pay more taxes and avoiding spending any of your resources. If you have high retirement balance the risk of society or taxpayer support is low. Is removing all society risk good for you personally? We need to realise our healthy lifespan is the most precious resource we own. Spend that wisely. Better to walk around with earthly possessions in your backpack than sit in hospital sick. Health care is not the same as good health. You can't obtain good health insurance not that it would do any good anyways. More and more I hear and read of healthy people receiving routine care to die from some weird complication. Did you read the Doc with bad record on colonoscopy? Infections are a big risk as well and life threatening. I'm thinking more the medical industry does little for quality of life (conflict), but can manage horrible quality of life with pain meds and some months of life extension, hence we have a opioid addiction not because those in health field business are shepards, but wolves. Double that for the mental health sector.

Bluce said...

Gabe: Nobody cares how well you've done. That wasn't the point.

tfb said...

For clarity on the SS thing. Your SS payment is actuarially neutral. By that I mean that the Social Security administration computes a lifetime value based on your current age and the average death date for your peer group and then parses it out over you expected lifetime. So when you delay taking SS at age 70, you are getting he same benefit as you would have is you claimed it at age 67, except it is adjusted upwards to compensate for the years you did not take SS. In other words you don;t actually gain anything if you live to your expected age. Then benefit comes in if you live longer than expected. The other benefit is the automatic inflation adjustment,kind of sort of. It is kind of sort of, because they never indexed the point where you pay 85% of your benefit to inflation. So at some point that little hidden gem will reduce the value of the inflation kicker.

And it should be rather obvious that delaying SS also leaves money on the table if you die before your expected lifespan.

frankj said...


Gwen:

tfb made good points. Look seriously at undoing the SocSecurity benefit and delaying it, using some of your $1.7M for expenses. And estimate your living expenses as best you can.

You should also set aside (mentally) a portion of this money for state and federal income taxes if it was "personal" money, i.e., not tax sheltered like an IRA or 401(K). You might want to let us know if it was tax sheltered or not. Tax calculators abound, I use the one at Bankrate.com to estimate federal taxes.

Where to put the money now that it is in cash? Fixed income investments offer less volatility than stocks but this security comes at the cost of losing purchasing power due to inflation. You probably have 30 years or so to live, so you must address inflation. Stocks are the way to overcome that but you have advised that you recently were 100% in stocks and now 0%.

An annuity? Not at this point, but not off the table either. And only a low-cost one like at Vanguard to be considered if an annuity is considered at all.

A ladder of CDs? Advantages: safe and no expense ratios. CDs might keep inflation at bay but little positive return. You won't find the best interest rates at your local bank in my opinion. You can build a ladder through Vanguard or other outfit. Disadvantages: money tied up for specified periods, so if you do this, do it with only a portion. Also, interest earned is taxed as ordinary income if the CDs are personal money.

Ultra low duration bond fund? A possibility. Little or no inflation protection and the added cost of expense ratio. But you won't get much loss in principal with a very short duration bond fund. And by short duration we're talking about 1 or less. More liquid than CDs. The interest is taxable as ordinary income if this is personal money.

I'm assuming the money is all at one financial outfit -- but you don't have to tell us which one. So, let us know if this advice helps and whether the $$ is tax sheltered or not.

frankj said...

Some financial advisors will tell clients to take SocSec at age 62 because then they will not need to draw that same amount from their investments. This preserves the funds managed by the financial advisor and also preserves the fees charged if they charge according to assets under management. I see it as a form of chiseling.

gabe said...

Bluce: Well, that might be correct but I do!.....then do you speak for everyone on this blog. Finally, no one (using your deduction) cares how old you are!

Gabe

Plight of the Starship said...

tfb said: "Your SS payment is actuarially neutral. By that I mean that the Social Security administration computes a lifetime value based on your current age and the average death date for your peer group and then parses it out over you expected lifetime. So when you delay taking SS at age 70, you are getting he same benefit as you would have is you claimed it at age 67, except it is adjusted upwards to compensate for the years you did not take SS. In other words you don;t actually gain anything if you live to your expected age."

Let me add a comment to the above statement. My understanding is that a SS payment is actuarially neutral for an individual. In such a case, it would NOT be actuarially neutral for a married couple with one spouse being the high earner. The joint life expectancy of the couple is considerably longer than that of each individual. In other words, there is a good probability that one of the individuals will live longer than his or her individual life expectancy.

Since the SS payment of the high earner transfers to the surviving spouse after his or her death, the actuarially expected duration of payout based on the high earners record is longer for a couple than for an individual. So if the high earner delays taking SS until age 70, the couple has a real probability of gaining over their joint life expectancy.

Jayne said...

How can I get Frankj to fix my financial life for free on the blog?

His summary for Gwen doubled everything I know, so now I'm twice as smart (financially). That was a great primer (is it primmer or primer, like the flat black on my Camaro fender?)

My case wouldn't be as big as Gwen's but the basics would hold true.

tfb said...

Plight of the Starship said...

Plight, I totally concur with your comments. Thank you.

tfb

Rod S. said...

If you want to talk Social Security twilight zone, here's a true episode, submitted for your approval.

Dad and Mom were married for 30 years, then divorced for 30 years. Dad never remarried, worked until 80 yrs old, took SS at 70 (you have to).

Mom remarried, took SS early but stepped up when her husband passed. The weird thing happened next.

As executor for Dad, I informed SS when Dad passed. A few weeks later, SS called Mom to tell her she was eligible for a nice step-up due to her marriage to Dad and his long working life.

She was cautious, too good to be true, but the increased SS arrived and continues two years and running.

I want to thank the Social Security workers who made that happen.

Anonymous said...

Thanks to those that took the time to make some thoughtful remarks regarding my 100% cash position.
I took early SS payments due to my lifestyle and life expectancy. (I smoke, drink allot and have frequent random unprotected sex).
My current plan is to wait for the next recession and dollar cast average back into stocks. Will probably want to go 60% equities. Just confused currently on where to secure my cash. Gold is looking attractive this week. Maybe I should put it all in gold.
Regards,

Gwen

Trees said...

I would like to add to the S.S. points that it isn't a dollars to dollars comparison. A few years back a free seminar on retirement from State Farm financial guy. Yes, selling annuities, but he made a succinct point that our end game of life for financial security is wrought with worry of living to long and running out of money. The result is we don't have fun with retirement money and postpone the trips, sailing, and RV playing only to fall victim to slow go and no go age restrictions. Then the children inherit the wealth wherein they retire early and do take vacations, sailing, and RV trips. Financial expert guy had to parents who enjoy long career of teaching. They had pensions and didn't worry.

If your planning your financial future to end of life do you count all the money invested in Netflix or Tesla? This is flash money that has little long term security. If you have a Chicago or Illinois pension are you planning your security upon that? U.S. government pension such as military probably a safer bet. State Farm could go bankrupt and destroy your annuity given some Black Swan event. You may get tricked with legal contract on the annuity that differs from salesmen speak. Stock market has historical risk to needed assets. Inflation will always be present and robs your future wealth.

So, maximizing an income stream that is guaranteed, safe, and for life is very good thing. Since long term is less predictable, wouldn't it be better to spend your current investments sooner than later given that you will increase SS monthly payments if you chose to delay payout? The higher the SS payment the less needed safe stash for contingency. You know the safe stash that you probably will never spend.

S.S. has great tax benefits. The income received from S.S. is either not counted in fed taxes, higher incomes only half of it, and with highest incomes at max only 85%. This income can have the same character as the expensive Roth investment route or at least a portion. The lower tax burden will make your dollars work harder or go farther. A good strategy is to decrease cost of living to do the same fun stuff at lower tax cost.

Know that S.S. payout is indexed to inflation. Delaying S.S. one will receive the 8% increase to benefit for each year delayed after retirement age. This higher benefit does adjusted up by inflation index.

Funny, how financial people say good to take S.S. early, then they attempt to sell you the benefits of annuity.

This might be wrong, but it looked to me that S.S. was decreasing benefit from retirement age at 8% per year for earlier dates and increasing at the same rate for latter years after retirement date. The latter years did receive COLA compound improvement the early years did not at least until the normal retirement age.

Finally, we all know our interests change in late life and so does our financial prowess. Most retirees will eventually put needed money in ultra safe investments and this will return probably less than inflation. How is that 8% investment looking at this stage of life.

Anonymous said...

True. The widow and even the ex spouse (married for 10 years or longer) can step up their payments if the old man croaks.
I married a gal in Bangkok for 10 years and divorced and she can piggyback in my record and receive 50% of what I earn or she. Can step up to my maximum when I go belly up.

Jim Latner

frankj said...

Thanks for the nice words, Jayne.

Carol said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

.
Love those long, moronic diatribes from those with TDS - it feels so good to deep-six them. Keep 'em coming.

Honeybee said...

.
BACK TO FINANCIAL MATTERS!

President Trump had a Cabinet meeting this morning. Our own Larry Kudlow gives a VERY informative speech.

U.S Economy and what about China

Dow up almost 400 points today!

(

Jim said...

I think we can forget about retests with the stock market. Brinker missed it. Next stop appears to be record highs.

Anonymous said...

Jim a 60% “retest” (remember 2,000 & 2008) will be seeing S&P1,100 again.
Be wise and keep tight stops.

Barney Tate

Bluce said...

Jim: LOL, Binky missed another call.

Honeybee said...

.
Barney Tate....And YOU don't forget that Bob Brinker raised only 65% cash reserves in Year-2000 and O% in 2008!

In the August issue of Marketimer, Brinker states: "the Marketimer stock market timing model continues to recommend a fully invested position in the equity portion of our model portfolios." (And DCA for new money.)


So, correction of 10 to 20% is a possibility according to Brinker, but no recession and no bear is visible.

Daddy Paul said...

Like your style

tfb said...

And YOU don't forget that Bob Brinker raised only 65% cash reserves in Year-2000 and O% in 2008!

As I recall the worst part of Da Brink's 2008ish prognostications was he kept seeing attractive for purchase opportunities up to 3/4 of the way down, so anyone who followed his advice was all in early on in the decline and faced a huge decline there after.

Moreover, as I recall, Da Brink did not even get close to calling the bottom.

The Hottiebee can correct any erroneous comments I just made, as I posted based on memory and could be mistaken.

Honeybee said...

.
TFB...Your memory is totally accurate.

Bob Brinker was calling a "gift-horse buying opportunity" in January 2008 - just above the market high.

Jim said...

Barney,
You can call a bear market another retest if you like but Brinker's definition of a retest is a drop to a prior level after a failed rally. Your hypothetical is not a retest because we have been making new record highs the past 9 years.

Honeybee said...

.
Job market news from Wall Street Journal:

Youth Unemployment Hits 52-Year Low

Data suggest more opportunities are available to some groups that historically struggled to find jobs



Bobnotbrinker said...

Honeybee,

The Morningstar brinky board has become hushed, indeed mum.

I hope that isn't due to my "47 CFR 73.1208" post.

Honeybee said...

.
Bobnotbrinker….Interesting. I haven't checked it in a day or two.

Maybe some serious contemplation going on?

gabe said...

At midday, AAPL is at all time high! Another great stock and part of the grouping known as FAANG!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

.
Nice couple of days in the Dow. From Fox Business:

The Dow added more than 500 points combined in the final two days of trading this week.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

.
Woody Marks..I know nothing about Warren Buffets cash holding, and don't give a flying fig.

But others might, so please post a link where they can read documentation to back up what you have stated as fact about him.

tfb said...

At midday, AAPL is at all time high! Another great stock and part of the grouping known as FAANG!

I am not sure I get the enthusiasm. 105 stocks hit all time highs today.

Apple, Aetna, Dollar General, CSX, Darden, McCormick, Norfolk Southern...etc

What am I missing here?

The only reason I look at stocks hitting all time highs is do measure the economy. What I see is the movers of the supply chain are up, the casual dining (vs fast casual is responding, and suppliers of high end goods (McCormick and Apple are doing well. This tells me this recovery is finally legitimate, with pent up spending just starting to be unleashed.

The biggie, is how we are going to handle the (theoretical) pending labor shortage. In the past we, unfortunately, off-shored and used immigration and illegal aliens, now, under a different mentality, we have are a real chance to push out the hard cored unemployed and into the workforce. If we do that could be looking at very, very extended market,on without a recession for some time. But once again we need to engage out internal resources, get them to participate in the miracle that is capitalism (even in a mixed economy). We do that, we could be looking at another 15 years of slow economic growth. My view, in that case it will be more of a pickers market vs the wonders so much of indexing, though indexing will do okay.

As I said, in my lifetime I have never seen such a pent-up burst of enthusiasm from would entrepreneurs. The key becomes handling the labor demand so we do not swamp ourselves with immigrants vs clearing our own native bench. The big prize in all this is a more bell shaped curve in terms of income outputs, a broadening again of the middle class and flatter tails.

We have an opportunity, I hope to heck we seize it and turn a deaf ear to the Business Roundtable the abhorrent Chamber of Commerce and the despicable SBA.

tfb

Bluce said...

Check out the recent Larry Swedroe article, Don’t Go ‘Mad Money’, about Jim Cramer and his stock picking and market timing "skills."

I skipped over most of the article, but towards the end under the heading "Post Script" is where it gets interesting -- although not surprising. Of all the gurus they tested, including Cramer, they had a forecasting accuracy of about 47% -- less than a coin flip.

Ha, I'm not sure why anyone bothers keeping track of this stuff anymore, because every book or article I've read comes to the same conclusion about market timing: You would be money ahead by flipping a coin.

tfb said...

While I am ranting, they really need to differentiate between earned income and unearned income in terms of SS taxation. We have a large swath of talented people who might otherwise be engaged in our economy if not for the purposeful, punitive design of SS.

For those who do not know, SS was never about providing retirement security, its main point was to mask the unemployment rate among the youth in FDRs economy. SS was designed to get those with seniority to step aside and allow younger workers to take their positions(which is an extra stimulate to the economy - via family formation)and at the same time to stimulate the economy by getting people to spend their SS checks as part of their patriotic duty(there was a massive advertising campaign to do so).

We are in a different world now. We have a lot of vibrant Seniors who would like to engage in the economy but are penalized for doing so. Yet we recognize this to an extent, by the provision on RMD distributions in 401K plans for those working past 70.5(several caveats apply). So it is not like it is not somewhat on the radar.

tfb

Honeybee said...

.
Woody Marks....I deleted your post.

Calling me a bitch as a response to my request for documentation of your Buffet claim, will now make it easier for me to know for sure that you are not a friend of the Blog, but a demented little weirdo in his mother's basement - no matter what kind of name you come up with.

tfb said...

Buffet and Munger have had the cash problem many, many, many times. It is compounded by the refusal to issue dividends (they are considering it) and the fact they designed BRK to generate cashflow in the first place.

Moreover, one ting not talked about, is the caution they have to exhibit in regard to companies carrying high levels of legacy defined benefit and healthcare costs. That single issue, greatly narrows their universe of acquisitions.

tfb said...

Excuse me, The Hottiebee is not a bitch. She is scrumptious mature woman. Learn some manners boy.

gabe said...

tfb: Well I am excited because I own Apple...and am pleased that I picked up a few bucks. I feel euphoric for having chosen this stock many years ago...good for my ego as well.

Gabe

Honeybee said...

.
Good news for young people who would rather learn to make their own way in life - and maybe even help pay for their own education instead of relying on rich parents and grandparents:

GREAT AGAIN: Youth Unemployment Rate in America LOWEST Since 1966
The number of young Americans entering the work force continues to soar under President Trump, with the official unemployment rate for the country’s youths hitting the lowest levels seen in over 52 years.

tfb said...

tfb: Well I am excited because I own Apple...and am pleased that I picked up a few bucks. I feel euphoric for having chosen this stock many years ago...good for my ego as well.


Ah, so I kind of get it. So, having revealed that, I am curious. Is it a significant portion of your portfolio?

I am simply curious how this works. I have some single stocks, from long ago. A few had spectacular growth over time, but still and all the biggest of them has yet to exceed 4% of my portfolio, most are far less such that even huge overperformance relative to the market as a whole will barely budge the return of my portfolio. So did you place a large portion of you assets in APPL or is more of a benign thrill ride? Just curious, I enjoy learning how other people think about things. The last single stock I bought was CAT, I dumped 50K in and it went to about 150K but 150K isn't going to budge the needle on my portfolio. Likewise the recent declines I see in my tobacco stocks (I still think MO is a strong buy) don't budge then needle either. So for me, the thrill seems gone with that or I need to have the cojones to make larger wagers on a single issue.

Well Gabe, I am glad your stock selection makes you happy, I truly am. Be good.

Trees said...

A few years back Apple was classified as a low risk investment given the extraordinary cash reserves. The article was convincing that Apple was so wealthy, that they could suffer many economic calamities and still do well. They could profit from their financial investments alone. Funny, the company had so many ardent supporters that were always willing to throw away money. It was support for the little company. The same happen will Bill Gates fighting evil IBM.

I don't know why more don't invest in these winners. Myself included. The reserved and discipline investor is not psychologically equipped to make such a leap of faith. I just read an article that those with less self control are better equipped to act on winner choices. Those of us that fear miss steps tread so lightly that we lose out.

One of my go to financial blogs from a experienced Millennial that learned from the school of hard knocks disclosed his 2017 investments and return. A lot of typical conservative investments that did average. The kicker was a small bet in bitcoin that propelled his entire portfolio up a couple percentages.

Trees said...

I read the recent news of Apple's CEO plans. My BS indicator is triggered. I've just had to much experience within this manufacturing area for this "new direction" stuff. Not that I was a executive, but did get to observe and sit on small and mid company management directions. Most U.S. CEOs have a poor understanding of manufacturing. This is not true of all companies such as Caterpillar or John Deer, and especially Germans and Scandinavian companies. Our CEOs look at manufacturing as just another and equal plant operation. Say, equal to sales and marketing. They hear the myriad problems and complexities of manufacturing and informed by consultants of easy solutions such as a expensive CAD/CAM or MRP computer system. Also, they exaggerate the benefits of integrated computer control as these companies stoke the CEO in that they can watch operations in real time. Thes execs think so highly of their thinking prowess that they believe the real problem is losing daily control of their decisions within operations.

The best managers are trained by executive branch to eliminate such bias such as groupthink. Instead to coach, challenge, the staff to be open and creative. Managers need to listen more and delegate with authority. They need to empower employees to make improvements on their own and upon the best rate of return for investment. CEOs need to understand why their company is successful and wherein the companies true strength lies. To focus assets to that endevor. To be bold within this vision. Steve Jobs hit this target with a hammer.

Apple is investing in U.S. and going to manufacture chips, etc. Really? They are group thinking success as do a lot of high tech companies succumb to. These companies don't have the right stuff for example auto manufacture. Neither chip and electronic manufacture. Elon Mush is a BS artist that is going to revolutionize the grid, housing, space exploration, vehicles, etc. Really, he may be smart but his folly is his imagination, ego, and lack of ability to listen and delegate. IMHO.

Bluce said...

The Binky Boys are wetting their pants, and need some help.