Sunday, April 1, 2018

April 1, 2018, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Stocks, Bonds, Economy and Investing

April 1, 2018....Bob Brinker was live on  Moneytalk today...(comments welcome)
(Because of family commitments, Honey was not available today.)


FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK SUMMARY

Greetings and Salutations to all MoneyTalk regulars and Honeybee fans this Easter Sunday, April 1, 2018.  Bob Brinker was live today but I had my doubts, initially, because his opening comments didn’t address any current events, and he delayed giving out the toll free number until about 6 minutes into the broadcast. 

(Editorial comments in italics, as usual.)
That said, his initial comments bear repeating, especially if a listener is an investing novice:
·         You get to the Land of Critical Mass by saving and investing – turning your income stream into assets.

·         (In the Land of Critical Mass, you don’t need an alarm clock to wake you up for work).

·         Invest a minimum of 10% of your earnings.

·         Invest in yourself by keeping up in your field and getting a good education.

·         Don’t depend on someone else for your income, and don’t depend on a union.

·         Learn about the power of compounding – the Eighth Wonder of the World.

·         Take advantage of the many tax sheltered savings programs available:  401K, 457 plans, 403B, Traditional IRAs, spousal IRAs, Roth-IRAs, 401K-Roth plans. 
The Chinese Space Station, Tiangong-1 is on its way back to earth.  Bob spent a little time reviewing the situation here.  Tiangong means “Heavenly Palace.”   (A good name for a Chinese restaurant, I think.)   The 9 ton space station is going to enter the atmosphere in about 8 hours from the start of the show.  You have a better chance of winning the lottery than getting hit by debris from Tiangong-1.  One in 292 trillion.    
Bob did mention the market but it was more or less in passing:  The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 2643,  the Dow at 24,147 and West Texas Intermediate is at $64.94 per barrel.  In the second hour he mentioned Facebook telling us the “stock got whacked and whacked hard.”  The whacking came as the result of the revelations about Facebook that were recently in the news, particularly the news about a 2016 memo from top exec Andrew Bosworth who said FB’s growth comes at any cost, even the deaths of people.  Bob cited a Bloomberg article titled, “How Facebook helped shady advertisers pollute the internet.”  
Tino from Connecticut said he’s been listening a long time and sought Bob’s comment on a question Tino says he’s asked friends regarding money:  “How much is enough?”    Some of his friends say there is never enough.  Bob said if you’re not at critical mass then you need to accumulate more assets, but if you are already at critical mass, then “more” is not the right answer. 
How do you avoid paying taxes on your Required Minimum Distribution from a retirement account?  Bob told Kathy in Sebring FL that she could have her custodian sent the dough directly to the charity of her choice.  The key word here is “directly.”  Don’t take the possession of the money and then give it to the charity.   Then she wanted to know about giving the RMD to nieces and nephews for college expenses.  Sure, fine, but she would pay taxes on the RMD.   The gift limit is now at $15K per year, that’s the amount you can give to anyone, not just a family member. 
A later caller asked a question that has been dealt with many times on MoneyTalk:  “I gave my kids $12K in stock, do they have to pay capital gains?”   The answer from Bob was “No, as long as they haven’t sold it.”  
Bob is OK with the way Patrick, calling from Cheesehead Country, (Wisconsin) has sliced up his portfolio.  He has 80 percent in equities and 20% of that is in international stock.  Bob mentioned that a lot of large US companies actually have a lot of overseas sales.  
“Run it past a tax pro.”  That’s what Jack in Nashville better do to find out if he can contribute to a Traditional IRA while also maxing out his 401K.   Sure, he can do both, the question is whether he gets any deductibility.  With the numbers Jack was throwing out my guess is, no deduction.  In that event, he’d be better off with a Roth-IRA but Bob did not suggest that.

A couple of callers had real estate questions.  One took a lump sum retirement and asked about investing in real estate via his tax sheltered account.  Bob said he’s done that himself (invested in real estate) but he did it with personal money because of the tax advantages that don’t exist in tax sheltered accounts.   Caller Bob in Cape May, NJ is heavily invested in real estate and he’s worried about inflation.  Advisor Bob was sanguine.  He said the Fed has targeted a 2% inflation rate for the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index and it is not there yet. 

Antone in Florida wants compounded interest on his CDs.  He said he has $335K in CDs going out 3 years and he’s getting 2% simple interest.  Bob told him with that size account he might do better by shopping around.  Hopefully, when Antone shops around he won’t run into a banker who tries to sell him an annuity instead … that’s what happened to Sharon in Castle Rock, CO when she spoke to a “financial advisor” about buying CDs.  This person said CDs are “the worst” form of fixed income – take your $260K  and buy an annuity instead.   MoneyTalk regulars know what Bob’s response was.  If you’re not a regular and you don’t know the answer, you better study up, this question will be on the final exam.
Jim in Tennessee said he used money from his 401K account to buy an annuity “in a moment of insanity.”  Can he make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear?  In other words, when he has to start taking RMDs, will the $6000 annual income from the annuity qualify as part of the RMD?   Bob said no.  He spared Jim a tongue lashing over using tax sheltered money to buy an annuity.  (Another final exam question.)
The Hits Just Kept Coming:  Ed and his wife (in their 60’s) inherited $ 1 Million from a relative of his wife’s.  The money was in mutual funds managed by a wealth manager who recommended to Ed that they re-invest at least half in annuities.   Bob told Ed that he and his wife inherited the money, not the salesman.  They never explored the reason why Ed might be considering an annuity, namely the need for steady income and the concern about running out of money.  Bob told Ed to do a side by side comparison of the offered annuity and a similar one from Vanguard. 
Another shark attack:  Michael.  Retired 2015.  Age 67.  $800K in a Traditional IRA.   A financial advisor advised him to move it to a Roth-IRA.   Bob said it was “dreadful” advice.  Michael would not be subject to RMDs for another 3 years so by converting (a taxable event) he’d be prepaying taxes. Converting would also put Michael in the highest tax bracket, another downside.  Bob got very agitated at this really bad suggestion and for good reason.     
Darrell in Houston is on solid ground (pardon the pun).  Darrell’s question was whether he could consider $10K in net income from a rural property worth $300K as part of his fixed income stream.   Bob said yes after getting assurances from the caller that the appreciation outlook for the property looked good. 
What do you know, Charles Schwab got a mention today.  Phil, listening on KSFO wants to move some of his stash from Vanguard to Schwab because a friend working there will look after his accounts and help with diversification.   Bob pointed out that Chuck Schwab has been on the show, is a friend of the program and is a fantastic person.  He told Phil he’d be inclined to use both firms in order to keep access to Vanguard’s huge stable of no load funds.  No mention of whether this was tax sheltered money or personal money that would trigger a tax event.
Bob’s third hour guest was a perennial favorite, Barbara Weltman, tax expert and contributing editor to the J. K. Lasser tax advice books.  Barbara is usually on twice a year, once toward the end of the calendar year when people are making last minute gyrations  that affect their taxes, and then about this time of year when people (some anyway) are scrambling to get their taxes filed.
For those who may be scrambling, you can always file for an extension.  You don’t need to give a reason, just get the one page form, fill it in and mail it.  They didn’t mention it, but my understanding is you need to also send along what you think you owe, to avoid penalties.  The extension gets you an extra six months.  Bob and Barbara chewed on whether the extension increases your audit risk, Barbara said no.  
Speaking of audits, they’re at an all time low.   Funding for the IRS has decreased 25% since 2010 and audits are down 25% since then.   It’s all about politics.   What politician wants to tell his constituents he or she wants more money for the IRS?  
With a $21 Trillion debt, the government needs all the legitimate tax money it should be collecting to pay the interest on the debt.  Just my opinion.  If we’re going to have a tax code then enforce it. 
Some people are whining about delays in their refunds.  Barbara pointed out that by law, the IRS cannot issue a refund to anyone when the refund is the result of tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit.   These are “free money from the government” programs. 
Oh, wait, correction:  “free money from other taxpayers” programs.   So, if people have to wait a little, too bad. 
Lucas called from Buenos Aires with a property tax question.  In 2017 he prepaid his 2018 taxes for property he owns in Virginia.  However he had not received an actual tax statement for 2018 – would this payment be deductible on his 2017 taxes?  Barbara said the IRS said before that this would not be deductible unless you actually received a bill for the 2018 taxes, but … there is a lot of pushback and they may accommodate people who have done this. 
“Talk to your IRA custodian.”  Barbara’s advice given to Clark who converted $45K in Traditional IRA to a Roth-IRA in late 2017.  Now it is worth only $36K so he wants to know if the conversion can be undone.   So why would he want to re-characterize it?  The $45K is treated as ordinary income on his tax return for 2017, that’s why. 
Whether disability income is taxable …. that depends.  Barbara said such income from Social Security IS taxable.  If it is from private insurance or an employer it depends.  You’ll get a statement telling you how to handle it. 
David from Reno got a surprise from his former employer.  He retired from the financial services industry and sold his book of business to a co-worker.  His former employer treated this income as wages, and reported it to him (and the IRS) on a W-2.  David wants it treated as “1099” income.  Social security and Medicare taxes were taken out.  Tricky one.  Barbara said take it up with your former employer. 
I hope everyone had a good Easter or Passover.



96 comments:

Bob (not THAT Bob) said...

Well I certainly hope he shows.

I told the kids that we were having a Brinker-Bunny party today, and I certainly do NOT want to disappoint them!

Bluce said...

Hi Frank!

So far it sounds like the typical non-specific, milktoast cut and paste reruns. I didn't notice the 800 number being announced.

Bluce said...

Ha, scratch my previous post. The moment I sent it, he announces the 800 number. Oh well.

Anonymous said...

Happy Easter! Happy Passover! It appears that Bob took calls during the first hour. The first segment could have been live or recorded; hard to say which. But then Bob talked about the Chinese space station that is due to burn up as it re-enters the Earth's atmosphere. Not economics, equity vs. fixed income markets, or anything of the sort, but the Chinese space station. He also corrected an erroneous statement on the annual gift exclusion amount (now $15,000 annually). Go Bob!

Anonymous said...

Second hour appears live, too --- go Bob! The commentary on Facebook was pointed; Bob recommended this week's article in Business Week on its shady advertisers.

House Doc said...

CNN reported Brinker is retiring and is headed off to Critical Mass Lane to live the good life.

April Fools

Biker said...

At 1 hour, 40 minutes into the broadcast, Brinker went ballistic against Roth conversions in early retirement (prior to RMDs).

The following article shows why he is wrong. There are situations where partial Roth conversions are more tax efficient than waiting.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/tax-efficient-retirement-withdrawal-strategies-to-fund-retirement-spending-needs/

Quote:
"After all, for the retiree who doesn’t need the IRA account, taking no distributions from the IRA and allowing the account to compound can actually create less wealth in the long run. The reason is that, as noted earlier, taking large IRA distributions all at once can drive up the retiree’s tax bracket. And this is equally true regardless of whether the “large” IRA distributions are because the retiree needed the withdrawal, or was simply forced to take it as a required minimum distribution.

By contrast, doing partial Roth conversions not only ensures that the distributions themselves occur at more favorable tax rates in the early years, but can whittle down the IRA to the point that by the time the RMDs actually kick in, the IRA has been reduced to the point that the RMDs aren’t actually very large. Which allows the retiree to remain in that lower tax bracket!"

Anonymous said...

Hour two's last call came from a sixty-something year-old gentleman whose wife had inherited appreciated mutual fund shares, and apparently an adviser, too. The gentleman claimed that the adviser had implored him (and his wife, presumably) to diversify these shares, selling a portion to --- you guessed it --- buy an annuity!

Bob launched into his boilerplate tut-tutting of annuity sales pitches, etc., something any longtime listener is well accustomed to hearing. And it's something I generally applaud.

He should go deeper on a call like this: did the shares' cost basis get stepped up? How do the funds correlate with positions you and your wife previously established? Would there be any back-end sales charges? How does this change your net worth? Any plans for the money?

We know Bob's aversion to annuities. He could easily compress that argument and do listeners a service by asking even the most basic questions. I'd start by asking whether the adviser offered a rationale for recommending the annuity... you never know when you'll hear a compelling argument (not holding my breath here, however!).

alpaca said...

Just a quick thanks to everyone. I never participate but love reading the analysis and comments. I learn so much. Thanks!

Honeybee said...

.
Frankj....I just finished reading your fabulous Moneytalk Summary.

Thank you so much!!!!

Anonymous said...

Terrific wrap-up of today's broadcast by Frankj... well done and thank you for a clear and concise report.

Anonymous said...

Spectacular summary.

KC Chuck said...

Great summary writeup today-Gracias!

Unknown said...

Excellent Job Frankj

Anonymous said...

A very well written summary & I'd also like to say thanks for those that do the heavy lifting...

frankj said...

Wow! Thank you all so much for the compliments, which feel extra special on this day, which is my birthday.

Topdaddy4 said...

Hi Frank,
Thanks for the summary and for filling in for Honey on a holiday.

Honeybee said...

.
Frankj.......HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

Anonymous said...

John from SF said: Let me add to the chorus of Happy Birthday wishes and thanks for the summary to Frankj.

howard said...

The Masters Golf Tournament will be concluding next Sunday. This put the chances of Bob being live next weekend at ZERO. . .

Karl said...

Good comments and points made by 'Anonymous' re: Bob's call from caller on new broker he "inherited" on converting mutual funds to an annuity!

What I really miss are the "annuity salesmen" that would call Brinker from time-to-time to argue with him about why it's such a good deal!!! They were classic!!

I think the current ad being run by Ken Fisher (Fisher Investments) is doing some of Bob's work also when Fisher says: "We don't sell annuities. Annuities have nose bleed fees, tax problems, hard to get out of and are confusing ....."

I don't recall anyone bringing up Fisher's commercial ....says it all !

Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etKliHgsGSI

Anonymous said...

Zoe,

Time to buy on weakness on this Monday sell off?

Karl said...

RE: Howard's odds of Bob hosting during final day of Augusta Masters!

Easter Broadcasts
Apr 1 2018 LIVE
Apr 16 2017 LIVE
Mar 27 2016 LIVE
Apr 5 2015 LIVE
Apr 20 2014 LIVE

Augusta Masters Broadcasts
Apr 8 2018 ???
Apr 9 2017 TAPED
Mar 27 2016 Tom Vacar
Apr 12 2015 TAPED
Apr 20 2014 LIVE (Hmmm ? doesn't fit the trend ... maybe my error)

Odds are pretty good he'll be off; I'm sure he will mention in Newsletter today or Special Message to Subscribers and Listeners!

House Doc said...

Happy Birthday Frank. Your contributions are appreciated

Anonymous said...

Ace Freeman's Chinese wife's birthday is today also, April 2nd, one day after April Fool's day, a little too close for comfort in my "Dash One" checklist (referring to the Chinese wife).

Mr. Frankj, how should I diversify out of 500k in one stock that was inherited? Every local financial advisor says, "Sell now! Too much risk!" But, man, there's a 30% uptick in capital gains on it so my tax return would explode, or implode, depending upon your frame of reference.

I feel like I'm pulling back on the stick during a stall. Help me.
-Ace

Unknown said...

I thought brinker said that the markettimer would be out by noon today. I do not have any email saying it is out, and it is past 2:30 EST. Any feedback from anyone else? I just thought I would add that I am underwater by 700 shares of VTI I bought at an average price of 134 "on weakness". Just a sidenote. I am not selling them.

birdbrain said...

Is there room on the Frankj bandwagon? Great job with yesterday's summary.

My one takeaway is funding for IRS.

With this administration unwilling to address entitlement reform and the GOP's spending spree with no answer to our debt crisis, the one agency responsible for collecting revenue should not be shortchanged. Even if the Treasury's claim that every dollar invested in tax enforcement yields sixfold is exaggerated, there is need to act on an annual underreporting of $400B+.

Enjoy your birthday Frank. Easy on the expense report.

Anonymous said...

Most proxy and annual meeting notices now are "internet only" voting. Suppression and desire to "disenfranchise" shareholders naturally allows the corporation boards to do whatever they want, good or bad, raise their "compensations" Irwin in Skokie

Honeybee said...

.
Natasha...About the new issue of Marketimer...rumor has it that it will be available later today.

Angie said...

The April Newsletter has been out for several hours now. Go to Bob's website & click on the link. I never wait till I get the alert, for some reason it always comes hours after the newsletter is posted.

Steve said...

I am a newbie here,I did buy today on the weakness at 3:45pm. Added the S&P 500 index admiral.

Anonymous said...

Probably a good move.

MK

Unknown said...

Money flow turns positive. So Tuesday or Wednesday should start the swing to the upside.

Honeybee said...

.
Message to Bob Brinker: LOL! I just read the April issue of Marketimer©.

I think we here are well aware that Marketimer© is copyrighted, but you may want to read up on Fair Use Laws. They even apply to Marketimer©

OR, did you simply decide to mimic Kirk©? You "investment letter" shysters would be truly funny if not for the disasters that you leave behind as you make your $millions.

Honeybee said...

.
Steve...Welcome to our blog. Hope you enjoy it and learn a lot.

The market certainly was on "weakness" today. It may still have some volatility for awhile, but it could have been a great buying opportunity.

So you wisely decided not to wait for Brinker to find that huge "buying-opportunity," as he remains fully invested?

Bluce said...

Always fully invested ^ wonders:

Wow, there sure are a lot of market-timers around lately.

Do y'all have functioning crystal balls?

Anonymous said...

I wouldn’t be too concerned with the correction. Trade wars are easy to win.
President Trump is making America great again!

Rex Roland

Ruyfa said...

Buy buy buy easy money, panic selloff on nice big volume.

Anonymous said...

In markets like this I have none, crystal or otherwise. That is why I just dollar cost average and go long.

MK

J Wales said...

Bottom spotters (!)are everywhere. You can censor me Honey. I'm on a beach in Mexico & my mind wanders. I'm on subject sort of.

Anonymous said...

imho, FRANK's outline of this past weekend's Moneytalk Program WAS TOTALLY EXCELLENT !!!!!!

Honeybee said...

.
NOTE TO ANONYMOUS POSTERS: I have made some exceptions because I want FrankJ to have all the kudos he deserves, but this last one without a signature or name was the last one that gets published.

Jim said...

Another bounce off the Feb lows for the stock market. Brinker had two chances to give a buy signal on a retest but didn't pull the trigger. The only reason I can think of that he didn't might be because he's fearful that trade war fears will cause a further breakdown in stocks. Looking at the April Marketimer his two remaining bond funds aren't doing anything special. He might as well have put everything in the Vanguard Prime MM.

frankj said...

Thank you again everyone for the praise on the summary I did. It is gratifying.

And I thank Miss Honeybee who for years, has run this blog in an efficient and informative way, and who trusted me early on, with my submissions.

Bluce said...

The reason Bob hasn't "pulled the trigger:"

He doesn't know what to do any more than any other market timer does. So he fudges everything: "Dollar cost average on weakness," or "buy the dips," and whatever other non-specific nonsense the timers come up with, that conveniently insulates them of being pinned down on anything.

Ever since he totally missed 2008, and never admitted it, but rather buried it like a cat with diarrhea, he's been chicken to make any specific recommendations. He just makes muddy suggestions and uses MT to fudge any leftovers.

What to do? Ignore him except for the humor, read books written by well-known investors, laugh at all the ridiculous market-timing nonsense documented by said authors, set up an asset-allocation portfolio that you are comfortable with and let 'er run.

Then, tune in every Sunday for three hours of humor, the occasional twisting in the wind, and the mental image of Li'l Bobby stamping his little feet at the occasional caller that gets through and nails him on some of his nonsense.

Gawd said...

Bluce said...
"The reason Bob hasn't "pulled the trigger:"

He doesn't know what to do any more than any other market timer does. So he fudges everything: "Dollar cost average on weakness," or "buy the dips," and whatever other non-specific nonsense the timers come up with, that conveniently insulates them of being pinned down on anything.

Ever since he totally missed 2008, and never admitted it, but rather buried it like a cat with diarrhea, he's been chicken to make any specific recommendations. He just makes muddy suggestions and uses MT to fudge any leftovers."

When Bob Brinker says his position during current stock market/economic conditions is to "Dollar cost average" new money into the stock market, new money that is earmarked for stock market investment, that is, he is recommending it be done today, right now, as soon as you can start doing it with that new money. His reference to doing it "on weakness" is merely to indicate that he is "especially" high on that recommendation during these current conditions at times of market weakness, such as the sell-off/correction we have been experiencing since the end of January.

Also, I distinctly remember Brinker admitting on his radio show that he "missed" calling the September 2008 panic sell-off crash and what a great call it would have been had he made it.

Bluce said...

Market timers:

BUY Monday.
SELL yesterday.
BUY today.

Do I have that right?

J Wales said...

Does anyone have an opinion on why the Japanese stock market never recovered & went to new highs? It will be 30 years next year. Is it all a fuction of central bank & govt policy? Is it possible the US stock market could decline & never recover in 30 years? Or is the US system so much different that it could not fall & not get up?

steve said...

I sold that S&P500 index the next day. Just a 1 day trade. Waiting for more weakness to buy back in.

Karl said...

RE: J Wales Japan Market ....

Well, when interest rates were declining in the 1980s, the Nikkei was less than 10,000.

The interest rate decline exacerbated a real estate bubble (not just investing in Japan RE but around the World). I recall LA had mega RE purchases in late 80s / early 90s from Japanese investors. Remember they also bought Pebble Beach!!

The ensuing years included the liquidation / write-down of many of these real estate investments (abroad and at home) at great losses and staggered many Japanese banks, who had a few of their banks in the Top Ten World Banks at the time. They attracted deposits from around the world with very high CD rates ....

So, in '89 the Nikkei reached 40,000 ... which turned out to be a gigantic bubble as interest rates suddenly shot up in the early 90s and the Nikkei dropped from 40,000 to the 16-18,000 level in 2 years time !!

Today: The Nikkei today (about 26 years later) is just 21,300 !!

The past 30 years has been painful for Japan. Their demographics (aging population) have been part of the challenges they have faced and the culture still tends to be net savers rather than consumers.

Not sure that an "apples to apples" comparison can be made of Japan vs USA as demographics, diverse economy, etc. differ significantly. Others may have observations / assessments, also.

Honeybee said...

.
gawd said: "Also, I distinctly remember Brinker admitting on his radio show that he "missed" calling the September 2008 panic sell-off crash and what a great call it would have been had he made it."

Firstly, let me remind you and others that the "panic sell-off" was a lot longer than September 2008.

And: I don't remember hearing Brinker say what you claim you heard, which seems odd since my ears would have been flapping if that subject came up.

I remember there was one caller that finally got through long after the megabear ended, who asked about his "timing model"©". As he hung up, he curtly replied that his "timing model©" had "missed it."

That's it! That's all I ever heard him say about riding that bear down 57% top to bottom.

J Wales said...

So its a complicated mish mash not likely to be replicated in the US? Our American culture & demographics are sufficiently different to keep the US from a prolonged decline? Did the central bank in Japan do QE or just very low rates? I just can't imagine what would happen to the US if the stock market went down 50-70% and stayed down for 25 years.

Honeybee said...

.
Hi Gee...So you follow Brinker's buy signals.

I'm curious. Do you also keep all of your stock market allocation in the market? Brinker has since March 2003 - but I'm sure you know that.

Also at the same time, do you dollar-cost-average any new money that you get - like he constantly advises his followers?

If you do all of that, would you share with us where you get new money to use for his "buy signals"?

Bluce said...

Honey: Yes, the "sell off" started in September/October 2007 and continued until March 2009 when it finally bottomed out. Roughly a year and a half, not a month as "Gawd" (cough) Mr. Topes, or whatever alias Bob uses on this blog would like us to believe.

Gee: My post was tongue-in-cheek. I make no attempt to hit moving targets; I'm always fully-invested within my AA.

Trees said...

You have to put investment risk into prespective.

1. The U.S. has the most dynamic and motivational capitalistic system. It is also the most open, lawful, and trusted economic system.

2. We have an incredible CIC who understands bushiness and economy.

3. The U.S. is purging corruption and weakness. We now stand up .

4. We are purging popular miss truths or dishonest information and communication. .

5. We have achieved an historic overhaul of tax system and useful regulation.

6. You reduce risk by being in equities. Also, by reducing debt.

Unknown said...

With money flow remains positive, if no bad news to sends the markets lower, expect to see more upside on Thursday.

Honeybee said...

.
Thank you Gee... I appreciate your answering my questions.

You and I agree that Bob Brinker has always been excellent at teaching good investing basics.

Bob (not THAT Bob) said...

WELCOME TO BRINKWOOD !

Folks say that it's sorta like Hollywood, but a lot different.

https://goo.gl/eUynqe

**If the URL opens to a very large photo you may need to pan right (via bottom scroll bar) to see the Brinkwood sign.

Anonymous said...

I had a date with Miss Truth one night. That was a toughie. My smooth moves and flim flam were deflected with more authority than Ken Dryden in the goalie net for the Canadiens during the 1970's. Both were champs.
Gordie

Honeybee said...

.
Bob (not that Bob)....You need to scroll right and then down to see it.

It's very nice, but probably covered with tar and cement now. :)

Anonymous said...

A listener asked about converting an IRA to a Roth, and Bob gave his standard answer that it is never smart to pay taxes before they're due. In my opinion, it's just not that simple, especially in the caller's situation: he was retired and not yet taking RMDs. Often in early retirement years before taking RMDs, a taxpayer's tax bracket is much lower than it will be once he or she begins taking RMDs. This interim period between a paycheck and RMD often presents an opportunity to convert retirement accounts to Roth accounts. As often is the case, the answer "depends" on the taxpayer's marginal tax bracket. Bob is a storehouse of information and I almost always agree with him, but on this question, I respectfully submit that it's "just not that simple."

J Wales said...

Trees you make good points about what a special place the US is.

Gawd said...

Bluce said...
"Honey: Yes, the "sell off" started in September/October 2007 and continued until March 2009 when it finally bottomed out. Roughly a year and a half, not a month as "Gawd" (cough) Mr. Topes, or whatever alias Bob uses on this blog would like us to believe."

Bluce, I was referring to and said the "panic sell-off", not the "sell off". The panic sell-off began in September, 2008. And to be even more precise, beginning on September 29, 2008 immediately after the first TARP vote failed to pass in the House of Representatives. There was no panic sell-off that began in September/October 2007.

Gawd said...

Honeybee said...
.
"gawd said: "Also, I distinctly remember Brinker admitting on his radio show that he "missed" calling the September 2008 panic sell-off crash and what a great call it would have been had he made it."

Firstly, let me remind you and others that the "panic sell-off" was a lot longer than September 2008.

And: I don't remember hearing Brinker say what you claim you heard, which seems odd since my ears would have been flapping if that subject came up.

I remember there was one caller that finally got through long after the megabear ended, who asked about his "timing model"©". As he hung up, he curtly replied that his "timing model©" had "missed it."

That's it! That's all I ever heard him say about riding that bear down 57% top to bottom."

Honeybee, my ears were also tuned into whether or not Brinker would ever say, "I/we missed it". And when I heard him say it, I took notice and even mentioned it to a friend who was also an occasional Money Talk listener. Mind you, he didn't bring it up as a special subject on his radio show. He didn't present it as a topic up for discussion at all. He merely said it in passing. As I recall it was right after a call from someone who was lamenting that he hadn't gotten his followers out before the crash. And it was right before going into a commercial break. It was really no more than a comment in passing, more or less agreeing (with a bit of a self-deprecating chuckle in his voice, too) with the caller who was lamenting about missing it and how much money we all could have made if he had gotten us out and back in as well as he did in 2000-2003. It certainly wasn't set up as a big mea culpa moment or anything like that.

But it was enough of an admission that he missed it that I can not say he has "never" mentioned and admitted missing it.

Chris in ATL said...

Like Bluce, I also thought Bob's opening remarks were part of a rerun.... so I have to say Good one Mr Brinker, you April-Fooled at least two listeners!

Chris in ATL said...

Great summary FrankJ! The only thing I can add is a link to the Bloomberg article Bob mentioned in his intro, "How Facebook Helps Shady Advertisers Pollute the Internet":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-27/ad-scammers-need-suckers-and-facebook-helps-find-them

Also thank you HB for keeping the blog going!

Honeybee said...

.
gawd...So let's assume that we both heard the same comment by Brinker, but simply interpreted it slightly differently.

Here's my question to you or anyone: Based on your last description of how he handled THE bear market of our lifetime (so far anyway) with one throwaway comment, how scummy is that?

You can read through all of my summaries in 2008 and much of 2009 and you will see that Brinker almost NEVER talked about the stock market during that bear. I think that was cowardly, shysterish and disrespectful to the people who made him and his family very wealthy.

Honeybee said...

.
One more comment, gawd:

If this blog did not exist, there would be NO record whatsoever of Brinker's repeated buy-signals or his fully invested position during that bear market.

Once he published them in Marketimer and the market dropped further and he published another one, the prior buys were never mentioned again - except here.

So a word to the wise - KEEP ALL OF YOUR OLD MARKETIMERS! More stuff has been buried in them than in Grant's Tomb!

Gawd said...

Honeybee said...
.
"gawd...So let's assume that we both heard the same comment by Brinker, but simply interpreted it slightly differently.

Here's my question to you or anyone: Based on your last description of how he handled THE bear market of our lifetime (so far anyway) with one throwaway comment, how scummy is that?

You can read through all of my summaries in 2008 and much of 2009 and you will see that Brinker almost NEVER talked about the stock market during that bear. I think that was cowardly, shysterish and disrespectful to the people who made him and his family very wealthy."

Honeybee, I totally agree with you that Bob Brinker should have talked about how and why he missed calling the panic sell-off crash that began on September 29, 2008. And he should have done it soon after it occurred and while the decline was in progress. However, I'm betting you and I would not agree on why he didn't. My feeling at the time and ever since was he didn't talk about missing it because, as I have pointed out several times here, it was triggered by a stunt pulled by a handful of members of the House of Representatives to thwart the passage of the first TARP vote.

That was, imo and as the timeline clearly shows, the trigger for the panic sell-off, without which I believe the stock market would have remained at or about the same 20% below its previous all time closing low that it had stubbornly hovered at for several months and struggled back into plus returns on the good news that the USA did indeed have the smarts and political will to avert another Great Depression and accompanying market crashes all over the globe.

But for Bob Brinker to talk about and really open up for ongoing discussion that unpredictable trigger caused by just a handful of Representatives from the same political party would have required him to place much greater blame for the panic sell-off on that one side of the political aisle. And that is where you and I would very much disagree about his willingness to blame that particular side of the aisle for THE bear market of our lifetime rather than happily denigrate and make fun of, say, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and others NOT on that side of the aisle, by name, as he had done so much more freely and consistently over the years.

Instead, the only "trigger" for that crash that I have ever heard him talk about was the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy announcement two weeks earlier and the Treasury Secretary's refusal to bail that institution out as his office had done for similar institutional failures during the previous year. But the timeline for the panic sell-off simply does not support identifying that day or week as the trigger for the real crash that began the afternoon of September 29, 2008. Therefore, his not talking about that far more obvious trigger point, how and why he missed it, meant he didn't have to point a finger of blame to a side of the political aisle he had never been inclined to denigrate over the years, by name, as much as he did the other.

Honeybee said...

.
gawd...

I am not going down this "September 2008 panic sell-off" crap with you again.

And as for your political views and what caused that bear market, I could not disagree with you more. But again, not going down that road anymore - and neither are you on this blog.

J Wales said...

What does JP Morgan CEO Jamie Demon mean by "drastic action"? Do they expect a spike in inflation? Why would he use the word drastic? Seems alarmist. Or do you just ignore it?

frankj said...

The conversion of a Traditional to a Roth-IRA spurred some comment here. This was Michael's call to Bob last Sunday. Michael said the financial advisor told him to convert his Traditional IRA, (worth $800K) to a Roth-IRA and Bob said it was dreadful advice. We can only go by what Michael said, which implied the full amount.

If that was what the advisor suggested then it WAS dreadful advice. The tax owed, which would have to come from somewhere other than the IRA withdrawal, would be in the six figures and would blow a hole in his asset base.

Can an advisor really be this stupid? Probably not. My guess is he meant for him to do it incrementally. It has to looked at on a case-by-case basis. Impossible to analyze in a short phone call.

Biker said...

Frankj: As stated earlier (backed up by a link to a professional opinion), I feel that Brinker really did a horrible job of handling the phone call about Roth conversions. I would suggest that rather than giving an immediate negative reaction at the first mention of a Roth conversion, BB could instead ask a few simple questions such as the caller's income level or tax bracket and how much did the advisor suggest converting each year?

If BB doesn't want to get into such details he could respond by saying it's generally not a good idea to convert all at once but that the caller could analyze the possible benefit of gradually converting over a number of years to fill low tax brackets that are otherwise unused. To simply make a blanket statement implying that all Roth conversions are always a rotten idea is a great disservice to his listeners.

frankj said...

Biker, I agree completely. I don't think Michael's financial advisor would be so out of touch that he would have recommended the wholesale conversion. I have looked before at that Kitches (sp?) website, it is very good.

Trees said...


This link not so nice for financial adviser worthiness or 401k. John Oliver humor making salient points that most investors need to understand. Way to many are taking a wrong turn in retirement investing. moneywise.com/a/john-oliver-lays-out-an-ugly-picture-for-your-retirement-plans

Ruyfa said...

I thought Mr. Brinker would wish are his listeners a happy Easter. I was surprised one of his listeners did it for him.

Unknown said...

Bad news for the markets:

Sino-US trade war is heating up! Trump adds more tariffs-- Trump’s Strong Counterattack Enlarges Recruitment: Additional US$100 Billion Chinese Tariffs

https://news.google.com/news/headlines/section/topic/WORLD.zh-TW_tw/%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B?ned=tw&hl=zh-TW&gl=TW

Honeybee said...

White House news, April 6, 2018:

The President’s agenda is defying critics

Last week, calculations of America’s economic growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2017 were revised upward to show growth of nearly 3 percent. “That revision didn’t get nearly as much attention as when the initial read of that quarter’s growth came in below expectations at 2.6 percent,” Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said.


Director Mulvaney delivered his verdict: Too many on the left and in the media will pounce on any news they can to throw doubt on the effectiveness of President Donald J. Trump’s economic agenda.

But the economy is booming, as nearly any statistic you could pick makes clear:

The U.S. unemployment rate in February marked a 17-year low.

The number of Americans rating the economy good to excellent has hit an 18-year high.

Average job growth numbers in 2018 are the strongest since 1997.

Since January 2017, more than 2.5 million jobs have been added to the economy.

Anonymous said...

Everyone should know by now that Mulvaney is presenting stats to help support his premise of boom town USA. Facts and stats are wide apart for this guy.

Those who read and understood my analysis of GDP know the true measure of GDP growth is YOY (year over year) which is stuck in the mid 2's not the headline quarterly annualized number (flaky number which takes the quarter over quarter number and then assumes the same level of growth for 4 quarters to produce an annualized growth rate).

Lending credence to the YOY analysis is non other than Rick Santelli who recently reported headline pending home sales of +3.1% month over month, which looked great but then followed with his own YOY stat which was down -4.4%. Obviously the YOY stat is more relevant and a better guage than the headline MOM#.

As for the labor stats Mike points to, those stats are also flaky. Just go here and see the monthly stats for yourself xcel table: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

avg jobs growth for the 3 month period is just a variable number since usually you get ups and downs for the year, but even if you look at his stat it is misrepresented since the 2018 number is strongest since only 2014, not 1997. Also the numbers for 2012 is substantially stronger at 282k jobs for the 1st 3 months. Not to mention the 2018 numbers for feb and march are subject to revision.

(oranges to oranges)

2018 thru march YTD 202k
2017 thru march YTD 177k
2016 thru march YTD 198k
2015 thru march YTD 185k
2014 thru march YTD 206k
2013 thru march YTD 209k
2012 thru march YTD 282k
2011 thru march YTD 160k
2010 thru march YTD 46k
2009 thru march YTD -764k
2008 thru march YTD -42k

annual numbers are as follows:

2017 182k
2016 195k
2015 226k
2014 250k
2013 192k
2012 179k
2011 174k
2010 88k
2009 -422k
2008 -297k

You would think that someone graduating from Georgetown with an economics degree and UNC Chapel Hill Law with a JD would know better.

Other stats reflect full employment and an economy doing ok as measured by YOY GDP.

Note as I said before a trade war with China will impact both countries' GDP. No one wins these trade wars. Also trade deficits are not zero sum games. If we get slices of growing oversees trade this helps US. There are trade offs.

smile

Kenp11 said...

Trade War fear mongers at it again. Any way to find out who the majority buyers an sellers are in this up and down market?

Bluce said...

The Tariff Tantrum is upon us.

But bonds are doing well!

Mad as HELL ! said...

Where the heck is Larry Kudlow?

He calmed the markets a few days ago.

I for one wouldn't mind a calming of the storm.

Honeybee said...

.
Larry Kudlow was on Fox Business this morning. The market did calm down a little.

However, this can't all be laid at the door of the "trade" negotiations going on. The Fed Chair said something about backing off the planned rate increases.

And they are claiming this latest jobs report is not all that good. Sheesh!

Mebbe the Fed should just put a sock in their mouth about future rate hikes until they get the information they need to make their decisions.

Honeybee said...

.
Sorry, but in my last post, I should have said that the Fed is for rate hikes - not backing off. From CNBC:

Fed Chair Powell says growth has picked up enough to justify rate hikes


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his first speech on the economy since taking over at the central bank, said growth is strong and more interest rate hikes are necessary.

He addressed a number of issues, including low productivity and labor force participation, the latter of which he partially attributed to the opioid crisis.

Rate hikes are needed so that growth doesn't get out of control and cause the Fed to move too quickly, he added.

Bubba said...

Anonymous Mad as HELL ! said...
"Where the heck is Larry Kudlow?"

Larry mentioned that he felt someone else with great financial chops might want to step in and voice their opinion. He did mention someone named "Bob" but didn't give a last name. (laff)

Jim said...

The other day a guy on TV was blaming Trump for the fall in the stock market. Claimed without Trump's tariffs we'd be at record highs. I think it was a bit unfair since according to Brinker the stock market was going to have a correction this year regardless. If the market wouldn't have had the tariffs as an excuse the market would have found some other reason to drop. When Bush had the steel tariffs on China the market actually rose. When the sellers are exhausted the market will start its rise again regardless of tariffs being on or off.

I don't expect Brinker to be live on Sunday. As someone stated the final round of The Masters golf is on Sunday. I think the only reason Brinker would have worked on Easter Sunday like he did would be to take the following Sunday off.

frankj said...

Bogle on the market:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bogle-says-hes-never-seen-a-market-this-volatile-to-this-extent-in-my-career-2018-04-05

Honeybee said...

.
I'm sorry to say that I think age may be affecting Jack Bogle's mind. That is just plain silly if you look at percentages instead of numbers, which is the only thing that counts.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Honeybee,

I respectfully disagree with you regarding Jack Bogle.

While "father time" has added a few "character lines" to his face, I think Bogle was, is and shall remain sharp as a tack!

The Marketwatch story was poorly written and the video was likely poorly edited. Not unusual for a MW article if I may say so.

I think the point Bogle was (trying) to make is regarding the preponderance of intra-day volatility within the context of total volatility.

While not being a young sprout (nor an old fart) by any means, I certainly do not recall intra-day volatility such as we are currently experiencing this year.

I am currently out of the market and have been since 3-20-18. For the past year or so I have tended to not place stop orders, as I would receive multiple alerts if something detrimental was occurring.

When I do I re-enter the market I will be entering "contingent orders" rather than relying on stop orders.

This is definitely a much different market that requires much different tactical operations, IMO.

JC

Honeybee said...

.
Kilgore...Send your advice for the President to him, not me.

Honeybee said...

.
JC....I should have prefaced my comments about Jack Bogle with saying "if Mr. Bogle actually said what Marketwatch reported he said."

Gawd said...

I don't think the tariff talk has very much to do with the recent decline in the stock market either. The market has been declining quite steadily into correction territory since the end of January, before the strongest tariff talk and trade war mongering got underway. Clearly, that isn't helping the market. But more likely what we are seeing in the stock market is Wall Street's tepid and uninspired reaction to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed and passed at the end of last December. Yes, we were "supposed" to get a correction sometime this year, although most thought it would be later this year. However, a correction needs something to happen that prompts it to happen and the passage of the tax cut bill was the only meaningfully new thing that happened shortly before the correction began.

So we now have Wall Street's reaction to that first major economic legislation, the TCJA. Next will be to see how Main Street is reacting to it. This recent jobs report and what we have seen in the first quarter of 2018 on the jobs creation front isn't telling us anything particularly positive about Main Street's reaction to it so far. Adding to that March's planned job cuts were the highest in nearly two years. At 60,357 job cuts planned, it is nearly double the planned job cuts from the previous month.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-planned-job-cuts-hit-113000046.html

Honeybee said...

.
gawd....The "tax cuts" are causing the correction?!

Ohhhh, pullleezee!

Gawd said...

Honeybee said...
.
"gawd....The "tax cuts" are causing the correction?!

Ohhhh, pullleezee!"

Honeybee, I only hope we are talking about a mere correction now. But nobody knows for sure, right? The passage of major economic legislation has almost always been a marker for Wall Street moving in one direction or another. Forward looking investors take as full a measure of the legislation that they can, assess what it is or isn't likely to do to the general economy, and act accordingly. It has never been due to other markers like an election or an inauguration.

Two weeks after the passage of the previous administration's first major economic legislation, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (February 17, 2009), the stock market found a bottom from the biggest bear market in our lifetime, turned around and began one of the longest bull market runs in history. About 3 months and 1 week after its passage, the S&P 500 was up 16%.

By contrast, four weeks after the passage of the current administration's first major economic legislation the stock market began a decline and has remained in decline ever since. And at that same 3 months and 1 week point after the passage of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (December 23,2017), the stock market is down 3%.

Correction or the beginning of a bear market, that legislation said and meant something to investors and they acted on it. So far, it doesn't appear to have inspired anything close to "exuberance", irrational or otherwise.

Unknown said...

Bonds: I don't compare my bonds to stocks.
Instead I compare them to CD's. I am risk averse and live in a high tax state (9 percent).

I was all in laddered cd's. Now I am buying laddered bonds. After taxes, I am getting more money from bonds than cd's.
natasha

Gawd said...

I am not saying "Tax Cuts" are causing the correction. If this is a correction and not the beginning of a bear market, that is. The only reason I typed those words before is because they are in the name of the legislation itself. I'm talking about the reaction from Wall Street so far to that economic legislation in general.

As always, to whatever extent tax cuts might portend good or ill for the economic future, it depends on where the tax cuts will happen, who wins from them, who loses from them and so on. Tax cuts are not inherently bad for an economy, of course. For example, there were tax cuts in JFK/LBJ's biggest economic legislation, in Clinton's Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 and in Obama's ARRA. In none of those cases did those bills precipitate a major economic downturn. Quite the opposite. And when Wall Street did their due diligence on those bills, they were right not to find a reason to think they would precipitate a major economic downturn and that a bear market be coming along for the ride.

However, that can not be said for the economic legislation that included tax cuts under Coolidge in the mid-1920s, under Ronald Reagan in 1981, under George W. Bush in 2001 and under Bush again in 2003. Within a handful of years if not sooner after the legislation that included those tax cuts was passed, the country found itself in each of the 4 worst economic Depression/Recessions of the last 100 years or so. And for three out of those four major economic downturns, there was a major, historic bear markets standing right along side them.

Therefore, I don't really think it is out of line for Wall Street, having done its due diligence on this latest economic legislation from the same side of the political aisle that promoted and passed those four previous pieces of economic legislation, all of them promoted as saviors for business, growth and private sector jobs creation in virtually the same way as this one was, and not exactly see it as a sure winner all around for the stock market any more than those four others were.