February 11, 2018.... Bob Brinker was NOT live on Moneytalk. Re-run monologues and old calls ....(comments welcome)
In light of the stock market volatility, Brinker's absence was very disappointing for his listeners. The market closed below official 10% correction territory last week, but later rose to end the week at about an 8% decline from the all-time-high:
Here is a list of the daily stock market closes:
==> Monday, Feb. 5: Dow plunges 1,175 points
==> Tuesday, Feb. 6: Dow adds 567 points
==> Wednesday, Feb. 7: Dow dips 19 points
==> Thursday, Feb. 8: Dow slides 1,032 points
==> Friday, Feb. 9: Dow rallies 330 pointsFrom my Moneytalk Summary of January 28, 2018 - about ten days ago:
Brinker defines a bear market as a decline of 20% or more, a major correction between 10% and 20%, and a "noisy" correction as 10% or less.
January 2018 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "Marketimer economic outlook for 2018 does not anticipate a recession. This suggests that the risk of a bear market decline in excess of 20% is low, unless our economic outlook changes. In the absence of a recession, the most likely risk for the stock market is the development of a mi-term off-presidential election year correction. Whether such a decline is a major correction of 10% to 20%, or a smaller decline of less than 10%, remains to be seen......"
January 2018 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "Marketimer economic outlook for 2018 does not anticipate a recession. This suggests that the risk of a bear market decline in excess of 20% is low, unless our economic outlook changes. In the absence of a recession, the most likely risk for the stock market is the development of a mi-term off-presidential election year correction. Whether such a decline is a major correction of 10% to 20%, or a smaller decline of less than 10%, remains to be seen......"
As of Brinker's February 2018 issue of Marketimer, and the two hours that he was live on air last Sunday, he has made no changes, sells, or buy-signals in equity allocations. He is still fully invested and recommending dollar-cost-averaging for any new money.
- Brinker also believes that a correction will be "health-restoring" for the stock market.
166 comments:
I agree, spliced audio already. WOW
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My sincere apologies to the almost 600 Moneytalk listeners who hit this blog as the show started to find out if Brinker is live today.
He isn't right now. Will he come in later? I'll keep listening so that I can let you know if he does.
I think Gabe would be a wonderful final hour guest on Money Talk.
Thanks appreciate the heads up.
Thanks appreciate the heads up.
Honeybee-
"My sincere apologies to the almost 600 Moneytalk listeners who hit this blog as the show started to find out if Brinker is live today."
I don't know whether to laugh or cry...
Thank you for your blog.
E. Coli
I'm betting he won't show up at all today.
It's now official. Kudlow has a better show than Brinker.
When Bobby B starts off the program with an editorial recording used in the past...doesn't appear he has a live broadcast that day. Or, maybe today, cause he was not expecting last week's market gyrations, and probably the top of the equity market (S&P 500 for several months), BB like 2007-08 had his readers fully invested.
With no comment on last week's market, doesn't appear his show is live.
Let us know if HB if Brinker had any special alert in his newsletter - stay the course, take some of the table, dollar-cost average at this stage, etc. How low he feels S&P 500 if indeed a -20% bear market correction. Already had a -10% correction.
It has been Brinker's practice in recent years to take vacation the week after the Super Bowl. Today he needs to be careful to not include any calls where he states the market is trading at records highs. To do that would give away to everyone that he is not live.
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Joe Tong, and all....I posted comments in the Summary Window.
No bulletins, no words whatsoever except what he said last week during the first two hours that were live. It is of course, in my summary from last week.
This Sucks---VACATION---BULL SHIT---A THREE HOUR SHOW---ONCE A WEEK---FORGET ABOUT IT!
This Sucks---VACATION---BULL SHIT---A THREE HOUR SHOW---ONCE A WEEK---FORGET ABOUT IT!
Yes, it is disappointing. However, thank you for sharing the information in the February bulletin.
Do we know if Mr. Brinker is still personally active in the creation of his recommendations,or if he has distanced himself from the whole process as he seems to have done with his radio show? I am wondering if he is still "at the wheel."
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Irishcajun....I do not want anyone to misunderstand what you said about bulletin. I am sure you are talking about the "investment letter."
I said there was NO special bulletin, and no changes in Marketimer in stock allocation.
John from SF said:
Maybe we need to have a game called "Where's Bob?", we could play it on re-run days like today. The problem is that crafty old Bob Brinker plays it pretty tight to the vest about his non-MoneyTalk activities.
I'd bet he's busy with either the Winter Olympics on TV but more likely at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Monterey California, probably a spectator. He tends to favor warm climates with his past residence in Florida and current residence near Las Vegas. The other attraction of Pebble Beach is that he would be closer to Honey.
Hey Honey, your name rhymes with Money, I just realized that, perhaps I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Yes, I meant 'investment letter." Sorry for any confusion.
"I know this is tremendously disappointing to Moneytalk listeners and Marketimer subscribers who anxiously awaited hearing Bob Brinker comment on the extremely volatile week in the stock market again this week."
++++++++++++++
I agree, very disappointing.
We wanted to hear BB's opinion of the market and the marked volatility we saw this week.
Robert
Screener to boB: Your first 100 callers want to know why you missed the correction if you are so omnipotent....over 60 want to know if you are really impotent?
boB to screener: Let's get the hell out of here right now. Put the tape on.
"This is moneyscam...coming to you live from 2010"....
We are witness the end of the 3rd largest bull market in history. A record breaking expansion coming to an end. The deficit is ballooning again with zero talk of a balanced budget. With interest rates climbing the service of the national debt will cost us 4%.
Wake up! Lock in those wonderful gains from the last 8 years. This isn’t going to be pretty.
I’m currently 60% cash with 10% gold.
Kilgore
Are there any other LIVE radio shows that discuss the market and personal investing? Most are infomercials like Rice and they are pre-recorded. Rice is pre-recorded every week. I think the only place to find something like this is maybe a podcast, but they don't take phone calls and pre-recorded.
If I was a subscriber to Marketimer (which I'm not), I would be upset about not receiving a market bulletin update this week. Maybe it's time for Bob to turn things over to Jr.
Somebody asked: where is BB:
Well, without being too specific there was a verifiable sighting of BB in a "warm climate" in the recent past; is Del Mar, California a warm climate? ... not sure if it was between 4 PM ET & 7 PM ET on a Sunday!!
I am told this "BB impersonator" was spotted at a residence on the last block before the ocean on the "even" side of the street, 3 houses West of Stratford Ct.
It's a rare coincidence, I guess, that house shows an owner to be: Hillary B .... Who is married to Hillary B??? That's what the county records show on that Diez Calle ..... those that don't know Spanish can hire translator for that street name.
Maybe BB is there today !! I'll have the neighbor that reported the sighting some time back go search the area!!!
Where is BB?
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Paul S....Brinker has no intention of turning Moneytalk over to Jr, or he would have had him making guest appearances long before now.
No, as long as Brinker's health and voice hold out, he will continue to do his usual nine hours or less per month to promote his and Jr's newsletters.
If/when Brinker Sr ever leaves the air entirely, he will simply walk away without saying he's retiring, or kiss my foot. He views radio listeners as contemptible freeloaders (that's not my opinion - he has written it on the internet).
He might continue to play re-runs in order to advertise Marketimer and Moneytalk on demand until the network shuts them down.
BTW: If Brinker turns the show over to Jr (he won't), I will go on record saying right now, Jr. will be eaten for lunch by Moi and an army of people that know plenty about him.
That two-bit newsletter-scamster, Kirk Lindstrom, is just lucky that he doesn't have a radio show. His newsletter dishonesty is well known by many.
To Paul,
There is Gary Kaultbaum that comes on live at 6pm eastern time and there is also Mo Ansari that comes on daily. Both are pretty good and I enjoy listening to them. I listen to them on the computer. Also, Gary is on TV on some Saturday mornings on Fox.
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John from SF....I'm sure that BB keeps a sharp look out over his shoulder if he gets as close as Pebble Beach. :)
Not that he knows what I look like. I have made sure that there are no photos of me on the internet over the age of three.
What the heck is Bob up to? We shall see in “The fullness of time!”
Hahahahahaha!
Pavlov’s Cat
Sad that Bob isn't live - he missed a great time for commentary. Maybe he really doesn't care anymore?
Have we ever determined if Kirk Lindstrom is a real person or a sock puppet? He has his own Bob Brinker fan club page, but its more like a mock up than a real site. And his "analysis" never seems consistent. Its scary to think people may use his "advice" for investment decisions.
And what do we know about Bill Dirlam at decisionmoose.com? He publishes a free "signal" every week. For a few $$ he sends out a weekly commentary on the market too. The sample commentary looks like it contains a ton of info. Is he worth listening to?
Sorry to ask so many questions, but I'm searching for someone new to listen to on weekends. I can't take any more repeats. There isn't a real TV program on the subject -- places like Wall Street Week, Cashin In, Bulls and Bears, etc are nothing but political crappola these days. Even the Money Honey is all blather. Trump was elected, Russians didn't cause that, Hillary lost. Lets get back to business talk for G sake.
tomfrompv@yahoo.com
Two (2) horses Sunday ran out of the money!
Gabe
I found the picture of Honey at three!
Glad I didn't knock myself out to get to a radio today. And besides, it's not like anything is going on in the markets.
rasputin
"Paul S. said...
Are there any other LIVE radio shows that discuss the market and personal investing? Most are infomercials like Rice and they are pre-recorded. Rice is pre-recorded every week.
-snip-
If I was a subscriber to Marketimer (which I'm not), I would be upset about not receiving a market bulletin (newsletter - my edit here) update this week. Maybe it's time for Bob to turn things over to Jr."
Actually, a re-run (or, more accurately, a compilation of questions and answers from previous shows) offers the benefit of having topics raised and discussed more selectively, with less time spent on insignificant chit-chat about unrelated topics. In many ways, a re-run could be a more informative show regarding the subject matter for more listeners than a LIVE show. In fact, if I were a Moneytalk On Demand subscriber, I would probably be much more inclined to archive the re-run shows for repeated listening in the future (if it is possible to archive the shows. don't know) than the LIVE shows precisely because they are more apt to be packed with more useful information and less pleasant but irrelevant banter.
For that reason, I also don't see a benefit to the broad radio audience for them to be told whether the show they are about to hear is LIVE or a compilation of the same useful general information about the market and personal investment they tuned in for in the first place. If anything, I see more downside than upside in doing that. If there is a chance a sizable percentage of newer listeners who should be hearing these compilations would tune out because they have just been told this is not a LIVE show, then announcing it is as such is doing a greater disservice to them than not informing them of something that is immaterial anyway. Worse, if listeners, new or regular, are tuning in to hear for example that last week's events are "Run for your lives!/Blood in the streets!!" inflection points when Bob Brinker's obvious position is that they were not and then they tuned OUT of Brinker's show on the announcement that it is not a LIVE show and instead go to listen to some other show that might be jumping on a "Run for your lives!/Blood in the streets!!" hysteria, then that would be an even greater disservice to them as far as Bob Brinker's position is concerned. Touchy situation I know, but best solved by simply not announcing anything about an issue that is largely immaterial to the point of the show, imo.
I am a subscriber to Marketimer, although I'm not sure why one would expect an update of that on his radio show. But as a listener, or rather a follower of his radio show on this blog, if Bob Brinker has already stated that he would judge what happened last week and might continue happening within a range for a while as merely your garden variety mid-term election year correction not predictable or fundamentals-based enough to justify trying to act upon it within minutes, hours or even days of occurring, nothing to be alarmed about or to make a major move on, etc., why would I need him to rush into his studio to give a breathless LIVE comment on it or issue a Special Bulletin to Marketimer subscribers about it when what he already stated we could probably expect it to happen sometime this year finally, predictably, began to happen? To do so would give greater weight to it than Bob Brinker clearly wants his followers to give it.
However, if the general media buzz on this garden variety correction (as I assume Bob Brinker sees it at this point) becomes so heated and scary, highlighted by calls from more and more high profile prognosticators to "Run for your lives!" because there is "Blood in the streets!!" and Bob Brinker continues not to see it that way, I suspect he very well could and probably should issue a Special Bulletin to the subscribers and cover it extensively on his LIVE radio show in order to make sure his followers are reminded of his take on it vs many others.
tom from PV: My experiences, FWIW.
I used to listen intently to Brinker too, starting in 1990. Until he totally blew the 2007-2008 bear, didn't talk about it, and tried to bury the fact that he missed it and was blindsided by it -- as were most people. Humility is not something that exists in Bobby's universe. He lost all credibility for me after that.
There are no successful market timers, despite all the hoopla from the media. Getting one or two calls right doesn't cut it; that is likely just sheer luck, or the same odds as flipping a coin. You have to be consistently right, over several market cycles for it to matter. And, according to what I've read, getting out at or near the top is one thing, but knowing when to get back in is much trickier.
So I started reading some of the classic investment books, some of which Bob himself recommends. Authors like William Bernstein, Charley Ellis, Larry Swedroe, etc.
The lesson that I gleaned from it all is: Construct a portfolio according to your age, your goals, your risk tolerance and let it run. Sooner or later nearly every fund returns to the mean (or worse). So instead of jumping in and out of the market, or buying the latest hot fund, be the mean -- hold mostly index funds and ETFs.
So now I listen to Bobby mostly for the humor and to nitpick at him, thanks to Honey's blog. I also listen to Rice (who, despite all his BS, is NOT a market timer) but I now take ALL of it with the proverbial grain of salt. My portfolio is set at 35/65, and will not change until I retire in a few years. I will probably trade my total stock market fund for a stock dividend fund, but the asset allocation itself will likely not change.
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Gawd....I have no desire to get into a spitting match with you to dispute all of your cleverly worded insults on me, my posters and the blog.
However as I was reading your comments, I was struck by the professional quality writing.
That sent me down memory lane a ways think about the usual tone of your comments.
Be careful. You are about to give away your true identity to me.
So many questions. Here's the answers:
BB was shackin' in Del Mar because he secretly attended the Winternationals drag race show at the L.A. County Fairgrounds in Pomona. He was the invited guest of some rich gear head.
For a "better" radio financial show, try Clark Howard (or is it Howard Clark) because his aw-shucks demeanor couldn't upset a hornet's nest with a baseball bat.
The reason a stock market correction is "health restoring" is because it shakes out all the Nervous Nellies and establishes a new low valuation upon which a ton of new money jumps on and pushes up the prices simply from buying demand. And since that habit is well-documented, everyone jumps aboard for the party.
On the other hand, maybe BB is blowing his Philly football bet proceeds on the classics, you know wine, women and song. Probably mostly song.
Jethro
Yes, I remember Gawd's prior style and it's much different now. He musta hijacked the handle.
-Sven, King Of Prussia
lol! Honeybee, I assure you I have no secret identity or hidden agenda other than to express my opinion of re-runs/compilations vs LIVE shows and why I don't see a benefit but rather more of a detriment for people tuning in to Brinker's show to be told whether it is a LIVE or compilation show. The exception would be if a general info compilation show is aired and no Special Bulletin is issued to Marketimer subscribers at a time when Bob Brinker honestly feels there is something to be alarmed about and acted upon as quickly as possible. In that case, I would definitely feel he was misleading and providing a disservice to his listeners and subscribers. But I don't believe that condition exist right now because his oft stated position about what happened last week wouldn't warrant it.
Still, if stating my opposing opinion from most published posts sounds like I am insulting those posters or you, I apologize for that but I really don't see how I can express it more dispassionately and matter-of-fact than I did.
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Gawd...I guess you weren't around as the market crashed in 2008-09.
Brinker never once mentioned anything about a reason to alarmed - ever.
All he did was issue new bottoms all the way down.
Honeybee, I was around when the market crashed in 2008-09. I had been listening to Brinker's show for more than a decade by then and been a Marketimer subscriber since the early 2000s. I know his position all through 2008 was we were in a deep correction but not on the verge of a crash or major bear market. And for months if not a year or so prior to the event that triggered the crash the market hovered at and bounced around 20% down from its previous high, give or take a few percentage points it hit temporarily on either side of 20%. He based his opinion on knowable data, not being privy to the hidden fact that, for instance, Moodys and S&P rating agencies were lying to us about the true quality of loans on banks' books.
But my opinion, as I have expressed here before, is the event that triggered that panic sell-off crash and without which I believe the market would have bounced back within that 20% down area as it had several times already and instead would have begun as steady a recovery as we have seen since the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was signed in late February of 2009, was not knowable, predictable or something that would reasonably belong in any timing model because it was practically unthinkable. And that was what occurred on September 29, 2008, when a handful of Congressmen in the House of Representatives snubbed their noses at history and shocked the world by reneging on their previously whipped "yes" votes to pass the first TARP legislation and it failed to pass.
Consequently, as unpredictable sell-off panics go, so can they turn around on just as much unpredictable stimulus. So I fully understand why Brinker could not say when the panic would subside and clearer heads take over. Meanwhile, I distinctly remember not long afterwards hearing him admit me "missed it", the crash, on his radio show and lamenting about how great it would have been had he not.
A small recovery last Friday. The NDX has only managed a +0.3% and the S&P a -2.0% YTD. However, the down side is not over because money flow is looking shaky. People are buying instead they are putting $ into the money market awaiting the right time to get back in.
Volatile markets like this one; things could get bumpy.
I was really hoping BB would be live today as I take some comfort in his comments and editorial - especially in turbulent times. With BB's frequency absence, I'm looking for something to fill this gap.
I do recall BB describing a "perfect market" just prior to the 2008 crash. In a perfect market things can only get worse, and they did. Recently, I've wondered if we were in another perfect market. I've been listening for BB to comment on this.
Gawd's current M.O. is the classic, "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, then baffle them with bullsh*t"
It's amazing how many insurance salesmen (whole life and annuities, you know who you are) still use that high-school-grad brain power.
Always lots of fear warnings about "losses" because the well-researched data reveals that humans fear a loss more than they covet a gain. So insurance salesman leverage it in every half-sentence.
George, Flint MI
Anonymous said...
Gawd's current M.O. is the classic, "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, then baffle them
-snip-
George, Flint MI
George, until Honeybee chimes in about your not so cleverly worded insult of me, care to site the specific instances in whole sentences of the "bullshit" in my post?
Thank you in advance.
*Bob Brinker Moneytalk Newsletters
It is quite apparent listening all those taped recordings(live,yah, right) of Bob Brinker, he belongs in Las Vegas with all the rest of the impersonators. Also, based upon best guesses of BB net worth, there must be alot of money in printing paper sheets of newsletters/& online for a fee. Kinda reminds me of the scamsters who travel around the country giving "free" seminars on how to get rich quick, only to hold you up when you get there for $400. or so, for a book on "How to": get rich in real estate, get rich in penny stocks, get rich in commodities, and get rich in everything.
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Gawd...I gave you enough rope and you have now hanged yourself. You said: I know his position all through 2008 was we were in a deep correction but not on the verge of a crash or major bear market.
I will not call you a liar even though that may be exactly what you are doing. Bob Brinker went into 2008 totally bullish. He was calling "gift-horse buying opportunities" at the top.
I get sick of him and his bots re-writing history, which is EXACTLY why I have documented it for these 15 or so years.
The following excerpts were written by me in February 2008 and are from the archived Honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2 in 2008. (I left there and set up this autonomous blog of my own to sever ties with Kirk Lindstrom after I found out he was another crooked newsletter writer - but one with no radio show to broadcast his scams.)
HONEYSBOBBRINKERBEEHIVEBUZZ2ARCHIVED
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Bob Brinker went into 2008 as bullish as he had been throughout the 1990's. He thought the correction in October, November 2007 had "restored health" to the stock market. He did not expect this deep correction. He had been predicting new highs and the S&P 500 Index into the mid-1600s for several months.
After the market dropped 15%, Brinker did away with the "attractive for purchase in the mid-1400's" buy signal. Here is an excerpt from what Brinker said on January 20, 2008 -- recommending only dollar-cost-averaging until a bottom is established: "Although our sentiment indicators are in favorable territory, we note that selling pressure has increased, which calls into question the area at which a bottom will develop. We recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing until a definitive bottom area is established."
In its issue dated Nov. 5, Marketimer summarized: "We remain bullish as we move toward the winter season. We continue to rank the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400s, in the event such weakness occurs. In the absence of such weakness, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for investing
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Honeybee here: Well friends, I checked in with Brinker in December and the first week of January, and Brinker was VERY bullish and VERY “wrong.”
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December 2007 Bob Brinker thought that the market had been "restored" to health: "The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P 500 Index in our view."
Bob Brinker wrote: “In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008”
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However, to Brinker's credit, he did admit to his Moneytalk audience that this intermediate-term correction was more than he "expected." That is admirable admission, but the fact is, he was completely blindsided by it and did not expect it at all.
(End of excerpts from 2008.)
PS: It's late tonight, but I will post some more excerpts from 2008 and 2009 tomorrow for those who want to know how Brinker can be expected to react SHOULD the market go into a full-fledge bear here in 2018
Honey, I never said Bob Brinker was not "bullish" during 2008. I said his position was we were in a deep correction, which by definition means he was not "bearish" and telling his listeners and subscribers to get out of the market but most certainly "bullish" and to stay in, even to buy on the dips, of which most of 2008 was one. But most of that year the S&P 500 was not 20% or more down from the previous all-time closing high. It only closed that low a few intermittent days prior to the event that triggered the panic sell-off/crash on September 29, 2008.
Here is the timeline and the numbers I am talking about when, as you accurately quoted of me, Bob Brinker's position all through 2008 was we were in a deep correction but not on the verge of a crash or major bear market. That is not disputing that he was "bullish" during 2008. In fact, it is agreeing with you that he was bullish during that time.
The all-time closing high in the S&P 500 prior to the 2008-09 crash was 1565.15, logged in on October 9, 2007. A 20% closing decline from there would be at 1252.12, right? Well, as late as Friday, September 19, 2008, almost a year later, a year filled with news about this and that venerable investment firm going belly-up and days after Lehman Bros. announced its bankruptcy, the S&P 500 was still closing at 1255.08, less than 20% down from the previous closing high. It only briefly closed more than 20% down on 3 days, Monday, Wednesday and Thursday of that same week. Bear in mind, this is when serious plans to put that TARP program up for a vote and in the system were taking place.
The following Friday, September 26, 2008, as we got closer to that first TARP vote, the S&P 500 was still closing less than 20% down from its all-time closing high, at 1213.27!
But two days later, on Monday, September 29, 2008, when a handful of Congressmen in the House of Representatives decided it would be a great idea to express their hurt feelings over something innocuous the Speaker of the House had said that morning by reneging on their otherwise already whipped “yes” votes at the last minute, TARP failed. At that moment, Wall Street along with most of the rest of the world was aghast, shocked and in a panic over the awareness that the U.S. Government just might not have the smarts, historical perspective and political will to do what was necessary to avert another Great Depression after all, the S&P 500 plunged 8.8% on that single day and continued to to plunge without looking back until it finally saw reason to establish a bottom in early March, 2009.
Yes, they took another vote soon after. But the trigger had already been pulled. You don't roll back a panic stampede by shouting, “Hey, just kidding. Come on back. We'll try that again, no problem.” And doing it again would do nothing to calm the justifiable fears that there were decisive factions in the U.S. Government who could again at any moment pull some new stunt to crash worldwide markets. It takes a long time to get investors comfortable with taking risk again after such a calamity. The healing didn't begin until it was certain the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was well and surely signed and on its way into the system. And even then the recovery would slow because confidence in the system would remain tenuous at best for years.
Aha. I see a blatant, unforgivable typo in that previous post: "The following Friday, September 26, 2008, as we got closer to that first TARP vote, the S&P 500 was still closing less than 20% down from its all-time closing high, at 1213.27!"
That should have been "less than 23% down from its all-time closing high..", still within the give or take a few percentage points of a deep correction I mentioned earlier. Sorry about that.
Are you 35 stocks and 65 bonds?
I was a Brinker Bot. For a number of years, I shelled out my $185’per year for Market Timer, and $60 for show replays, and thought that I was getting good value and good financial advice. I even called into the live show a few times.
Then my eyes were opened as I found this blog. I had been listening casually, but had no idea of the deceit and trickery from Brinker. The newsletter content started to look the same every month. And the shows started to all sound the same (because about half are reruns).
I cancelled the newsletter, and then cancelled the On Demand service. No more of my money going to a guy who is just going through the motions in the declining days of his career.
For anyone who wants to get inexpensive market conditions and guidance, along with model portfolios, I strongly suggest Money For The Rest of Us Plus, by David Stein. Excellent, twice weekly podcast. And real market updates twice per month. Infinitely more value for about the same cost as Full Brinker.
Honeybee, thanks for this blog. If you had 600 hits yesterday to see if the show is live, you are providing a valuable service to a lot of folks.
Market timing is at best a game the most capable financial houses attempt and they get it wrong. Recession timing is worthy of your effort. If you can sometimes lower that expense, very healthy for average return.
The market review from my sources are all bullish. We have setup a best in 25 year environment for economy growth. Buy the correction then hold. This environment will have long term gains. The correction is near end, better if it goes sideways before regaining footing. Hopefully, it will go south a few ticks so we can invest cash. Tech, financials, and blue chip companies such as Caterpillar, Deere, etc. should perform well.
Market jitters probably a combined negative force of unusual politics, large '18 returns, history of '08/'09, no experience with inflation, or interest rate increase. There are those that lost big on leveraging a low volatility market. All of this is actually good happenings. Our economy is normalizing. We're just not use to normal. Funny, that we had so much money out their that the economy will shake it out the crevices. For example, the outrageous appreciation of collectibles and super star athletes bidding or CEOs compensation packages. We have regained normal wage growth and the financials are freaking out that the middle class will earn more. Also, the fear that the supply of low cost illegals wage earners will dry up and companies will have to pay more on average for low talent work force.
The only true negative is the outrageous 2 year spending bill. No one truly knows what to think of it? Do we have dysfunctional representative government that will always acquiesce to the desires of big government swamp practices of crony capitalism no matter what political party is in charge? It does appear the deficit spending and central control growth is unstoppable. Michigan has experience much good from term limits. Just saying. This national debt is presented by economist as sometimes a good thing unless utilized to excess. So, do we have self serving politicians or shrewd emissaries shepherding our future? I'm sure the wealth, power, and acclaim of the swamp wouldn't taint them.
If someone is looking for someone that has done a good job of timing the market over the years then go to investment-models.com and click around on his web site. I have heard him several times on the radio as a guest and he is interesting and is not a "crook". His name is Jim Rohrbach. I think you can get two free current newsletters if you send him a request at jim@rixindex.com
Uncle Mark: If you want to read something rather than listen to something, then take a look at Fear & Greed Trader on SeekingAlpha.com. This is a weekly column on the S&P 500 activity. You may have to register. It is no big deal, it is free and they don't bug you with spam. Bob Brinker, in my opinion is never going to give any solid advice on where the thinks the market is headed. Good luck.
In addition to what was published in Marketimer in early 2008 we also know Brinker was bullish on the market as late as May 31 2008 when he gave the famous "Cassandra Rant" on Moneytalk where he was making fun of the bears who were predicting a recession.
I've been listening to Brinker for almost 20 years & an off & on subscriber for 15. I find him to be very educational & helpful. I do remember in 2008 he didn't call it right, but I think there were things going on that no one knew about, including Bob. I also don't find it shady if his show isn't live, and I see no reason to be upset if it isn't. I still listen because I can always learn something. I had hoped he would be live this week with all the volatility, but he wasn't. When he sees something happening that warrants a bulletin, he'll issue one. Until then, go do something you enjoy. I remember back in 2008, I was up early with CNBC on till I went to bed. When I look back, I would have been better off if I had the Food Network or HGTV and saved myself all the emotional turmoil:)
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Jim...You are one of the greatest of a bunch of great BRT's (Blog Research Team). Thank you for the date of Bob Brinker's infamous "Cassandra" rant. (Kirk Lindstrom has fixed it so that I cannot even search my work on "his" blog now).
I will first post it here now. And later today- time allowing - I will make a front page post of it, along with warnings never to trust Brinker to get anyone out of the stock market ahead of a bear market.
.
The following is from my Moneytalk summary on May 31, 2008. The stock market continued to crash until March 11, 2009 when it bottomed at S&P 677:
RECESSION CASSANDRAS.... Brinker said: “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
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CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."
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LOST JOBS.... Brinker said: “And your questions to the Cassandras should be where are the millions of lost jobs that we would expect to see in a recession? In fact, in this economic slowdown, so far, we’ve only lost a few hundred thousand jobs total – dating back to the beginning of this year…………”
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STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
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We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
Honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2ARCHIVES
Hi, Bob just sent an update to the newsletter today morning. If anyone can share what his thoughts are on the market, please share with the group.
Thanks in advance.
Blogger Honeybee said...
Gawd....I have no desire to get into a spitting match with you to dispute all of your cleverly worded insults on me, my posters and the blog.
However as I was reading your comments, I was struck by the professional quality writing.
That sent me down memory lane a ways think about the usual tone of your comments.
Be careful. You are about to give away your true identity to me.
February 11, 2018 at 6:29 PM
-------------
Honeybee,
I'm sure I am on-track with what you are intimating here.
I'm also sure I had the same thoughts beginning about a week ago.
Great minds think alike!
JC
"Jigar - Ami Shah said...
Hi, Bob just sent an update to the newsletter today morning. If anyone can share what his thoughts are on the market, please share with the group.
Thanks in advance."
Essentially it is to stand by, have patience because it might take a while, but if he sees a successful test of the correction bottom, which usually occurs after a failed initial rally from that bottom, he might issue an "attractive to buy" signal through a bulletin to Marketimer subscribers or in the Marketimer itself.
@Honeybee
Once again, I find myself thanking you for the updates and for the clarity of your posts. The succinct summary of market activity last week and the simple direct summary of BB current recommendations are welcome. This is what I expected when I first started listening to the program and why for a while I was a subscriber. Its absence in recent years is why I no longer subscribe or listen regularly. Still, BB is a consistent voice that I think is worth noting.
I do not understand the vitriol in the above posts to your blog; I hope they do not discourage you. What you are doing is helpful.
Irishcajun
"Honeybee here: Well friends, I checked in with Brinker in December and the first week of January, and Brinker was VERY bullish and VERY “wrong.”
-snip-
However, to Brinker's credit, he did admit to his Moneytalk audience that this intermediate-term correction was more than he "expected." That is admirable admission, but the fact is, he was completely blindsided by it and did not expect it at all.
(End of excerpts from 2008.)"
I am sure I must be missing something here. But the S&P 500 Index was down 15-20% from the previous all-time closing high during the first 9 months of 2008 before the crash in late September of that year. And in each of those months Bob Brinker was certainly aware that we were in a Major Correction by his definition of the term, between 10% and 20% down (ok, I used the term "deep correction". Brinker prefers the term "Major Correction"), while at the same time judging it to be a correction and not as a prelude to a pending crash or a bear market. Therefore, doesn't your recap of what Brinker said all during that time provide support for my contention that, "his position all through 2008 was we were in a deep correction but not on the verge of a crash or major bear market," rather than refute it?
Honeybee said... Be careful. You are about to give away your true identity to me.
Too late, IMHO. She could have done a better job on helping him hide his tells. He's much better than in the old days, but than what do I know. (((ROAR)))
Jerrod Clarkson said... Great minds think alike!
When I get to see the Wizard, I'm gonna ask for one of those!
Brinker just issued a new subscriber notice this morning (Monday). I think I sort of have a vague recollection that in the past he has stayed off the air the day before issuing a notice, so now maybe it makes sense why yesterday's show was a rerun.
Jigar - Ami Shah said...
Hi, Bob just sent an update to the newsletter
--
Right. Any news on this?
Looks like we are well on the way for a trip to "Overbought Territory" again.
That will give the "Big Boyz" another chance to sell, thus giving the screws to individual investors - again.
JC
Hi Honeybee, do you know what the special subscriber message was that was posted today? Thanks
What an excellent discussion on Brinker's track record during the 2008 timeframe. Brinker never issued a sell signal. And never issued a buy signal either. He missed the whole damned disaster. HoneyBee reminds us that on his radio show, Bob mollified his audience with sweet talk of a deep correction. Bottom line: Brinker let us down even worse than that QQQ call years before.
Fast forward to 2015. Even though Brinker was still fully invested during that correction, he still issued a buy call! Ostensibly for those "fools" who were still in cash. Why didn't he do that in March of 2009?
tomfrompv
Jigar - Ami Shah - If someone answers your post can you let me know? thanks much!
Jigar - Ami Shah,
If someone replies to your post, can you let me know?
Thanks much!
Honeybee thanks so much for all you do.
Sincerely,
Adele56
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Tomfrompv....You asked why Brinker did not issue a buy call in March of 2009 when the market bottomed. That is the month he threw in the towel!
It is hard for most people to believe, but THAT month in Marketimer was when Bob Brinker FIRST stopped calling bottoms - Remember that he had issued several buy signals all the way down to the bottom where he basically said it couldn't be done.
MARCH 5, 2009 MARKETIMER, Brinker wrote:
"The process of establishing a major bear market bottom can extend over a period of several months, as we saw in 2002-2003. Clearly, the process of registering the final bottom in this bear market has been relentless, which has rendered our efforts to date unsuccessful. This is, by far, the most difficult stock market we have ever seen.....
We believe a new bottoming process will be necessary in order to put an end to the bear market. this means that in order to set the stage for a sustainable market advance, we need to see a sequence of events consisting of (a) the establishment of an initial closing low; (b) a short-term rally; (c) a test of the area of the initial closing low on reduced selling pressure. Going forward, we expect the combination of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy measures, and initiatives to improve the health of the banking system, to favorably effect the economy.
Honey sez: Feel sorry for those that took his all-in buys at the top at 1400's, again at 1300s, 1200s, etc. I have them all documented and will post for anyone who wants to see them.
Did some sort of special bulletin go out today from Brinker? I received an email but it would not open. The market is way up as of 1:30 p.m.
My sources are saying it will continue this week.
KC
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Note to all about Brinker's Bulletin:
I cannot reveal any wording from it - as you know.
But I will say this: I will NOT be making any changes to ANYTHING that I have said, posted or put in any of my Moneytalk Summaries. There is no reason to do that.
So I will continue, as always, comfortably knowing that you are reading only the truth on this blog - both long and short-term. :)
Now relax and have a good day - and keep the good thought for rain in California.
Thanks for the update Honey and talking me off the ledge.
I will take your advice by relaxing and praying for some gentle rain in Cali and warm winds out here in frigid "fly over" country.
KC
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KC...Thanks, prayers for rain are appreciated - and not all in one hour. :)
Yes, stay away from that ledge - all is well. Absolutely nothing has changed.
Thank you HoneyBee. I had forgotten the buy signals in 2008 that he gave. Even worse. At that time, I had been selling shares since late 2007 but not on Brinkers advice. My wife had been listen to Glenn Beck's panel discussions on Fox News and was insisting we sell based on what was being said there (collapsing oil, Fed rate soaring, etc). It's hard to admit, but Beck saved us a lot, not Brinkers. Yes, NeverTrumper Beck, that guy. Should have listened to him about gold when it was in the 700s too! These days Beck is all politics and blather.
My biggest fault on Brinker was his abject failure to call a buy signal in 2009. He did in 2015, after the S&P had gone from 666 to 1850. But not a peep in between. Not much of a market timer IMHO.
I will throw out that Charles Payne has stated DOW 25,200 close is an "all clear" for the market to resume the up trend. Until then the correction is still ongoing. This is from his show on Fox Business last Friday. Other Fox Business hosts talked the other way - need a successful retest of the 200 day before the correction is complete. Good luck for us all.
Tomfrompv
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Dow up 410 points today. Another day or two on the upside and we should be off to the races again....I hope. :)
S&P 500
2,656.00
+36.45(+1.39%)
Dow 30
24,601.27
+410.37(+1.70%)
Nasdaq
6,981.96
+107.47(+1.56%)
The old fart could pull one out this time. I will stay tuned.
Pavlov’s Cat
what is bob's e-alert today about, a "gift horse" or a move to safety? Please help, thanks
Honeybee said...
MARCH 5, 2009 MARKETIMER, Brinker wrote:
"The process of establishing a major bear market bottom can extend over a period of several months, as we saw in 2002-2003. Clearly, the process of registering the final bottom in this bear market has been relentless, which has rendered our efforts to date unsuccessful. This is, by far, the most difficult stock market we have ever seen.....
-snip-
Going forward, we expect the combination of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy measures, and initiatives to improve the health of the banking system, to favorably effect the economy."
This is where Brinker missed his opportunity to issue a buy signal in addition to his general dollar-cost-averaging recommendations while President Obama was not shy about publicly suggesting one in an interview. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 had just been signed and passed right before the March 2009 Marketimer was written and published. That was the aggressive "fiscal policy measure" the stock market needed to see being put into the economy to justify establishing a bottom in the market and beginning the historic bull rally we are still enjoying to this day. He apparently sided with the nay-sayers on that legislation and didn't think it was enough to do the job. It was certainly smaller economic stimulus than it should have been. But it was the best we could get at the time and obviously enough to put us back into a stock market recovery.
THERE AREN'T ANY MARKET TIMERS WHO CAN DO IT CONSISTENTLY AND COME OUT AHEAD, CREATING ALPHA YEAR AFTER YEAR.
If there are, please post their names here. There will be plenty of people who will want to interview them, and they will have numerous book offers and business propositions.
IGNORE ANYTHING YOU SEE ON TV. It's all jibber-jabber and their forecasts are worthless. Half of them are right half the time, and the other half are wrong half the time.
I've posted this before, but will try again: I've read, in more than one place, that in a year when stocks go up substantially, there will typically only be around 20-30 days out of the entire year where it really jumps up, and if you miss those days you will miss the yearly gains.
Built a portfolio reflecting your goals and risk tolerance, let it run, and do something else with the time you save from not chasing gurus all over the airwaves.
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Gawd....The answer to your question is "NO!"
Now please don't ask me any more silly questions until you carefully read Brinker's "Cassandra Rant" above.
In 2016 Bob Brinker did post a buy signal in February. He did call the bottom that time, but I was too new in investing to take full advantage of it. It was my first "correction". Is this a good time to put new money in the market?
Honeybee, I read it. I'm fairly certain I read it whenever you post it. I see that in 2008 Bob Brinker felt we were in a correction but not on the verge of a crash or bear market, the same position I asserted that has was maintaining during 2008 (prior to the crash that began on Sept. 29, of course) and the same assertion that you quoted to suggest I was trying to lie and that prompted your decision to repost those excerpts.
Sorry, I just don't get where my assertion is not supported by those excerpts. But I'll keep trying. I never said he was bearish during that period instead of bullish. I don't know how Brinker or anyone else can be bearish while at the same time characterizing the downturn of 10%, 15% and more as only a "correction".
I would like a job where when everyone calls in to complain or ask questions, I just leave town. Where is BB when you need him? No one seems to know, but I feel so much better just listening to those old tapes and recordings from months/years past, I think I will subscribe to another BB newsletter. They could use one more Elvis impersonator there in Henderson, BB, want to give it a try?
Honeybee said...Be careful. You are about to give away your true identity to me.
Much too late for that. AAR, she could have done a much better job with his writing skills and especially his "tells". But than, what do I know. (((roar)))
Bob Brinkers new message? 2/12/2018
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Carol Crawford....I don't know if you are asking for Bob Brinker's opinion on new money or mine.
Here is Bob Brinker's opinion: use "dollar-cost-averaging on weakness."
Here's mine: Yes, but if you are in or near retirement, keep you total stock allocation about 50% of total.
And I will add the same advice I gave my daughter when she bought during this correction: Don't commit any money that you will need in the next five years.
Vanguard offers a slew of benefits if one has sufficient assets invested with them and is either a Flagship or Select Flagship client.
If so, no real need for BB unless as I do, to listen to his live broadcasts with a rum and coke in hand.
Gabe
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I have edited the front page to add Bob Brinker's latest stock market advice which is the same that it has been for a long time.
I will also repeat what I wrote here yesterday. (I will not be publishing any more questions for people who obviously have not read what's already available on the blog.)
Note to all about Brinker's Bulletin:
I cannot reveal any wording from it - as you know.
But I will say this: I will NOT be making any changes to ANYTHING that I have said, posted or put in any of my Moneytalk Summaries. There is no reason to do that.
So I will continue, as always, comfortably knowing that you are reading only the truth on this blog - both long and short-term.
Honeybee said... (I will not be publishing any more questions for people who obviously have not read what's already available on the blog.)
Was boB brinker on live last Sunday and did he say "sell everything and buy bitcoins"?
;-)
What happened to fill-in hosts. Larry Kudlow was the best. He created the guest segment that Bob uses today.
Remember: Bill Flanagan, Gordon Williams, Motly Fool, Larry Kudlow, Neal Godfrey, Tom Vicar, Lyn Jimez
Vanguard will also send you a great coffee mug free if you direct message them on twitter requesting one. Flagship services great. A .3 pct fee if you want advisor to totally handle your investment. I still like to play with mine but at RMD time I will let them handle it. Long way (10 yrs) till then.
House Doc said... but at RMD time I will let them handle it. Long way (10 yrs) till then.
They handle our RMD's without any special deals. I think it's just part of their fine service for everybody. They give the exact amount to the penny and warn you to have a taxable account ready for the transfer (if that's what you have in mind) and to allow enough time to liquidate. Some retirement plans need extra time.
Even E*Trade does this for you.
Blue wrote: "when stocks go up substantially, there will typically only be around 20-30 days out of the entire year where it really jumps up, and if you miss those days you will miss the yearly gains."
I've heard that a lot. As a doubting Thomas, I checked it out. In fact, the same thing can be said about down days. If one misses the 20 or 30 bad days each year, then they do great too! But is it possible to get in/out with such agility to do that? Of course not, so the adage is kind of useless.
I also found that those big up days usually occur in a long, grinding downturn. Like 2000-2002 or 2008. Just like sudden big drops usually occur in a bull market as we saw last week. To me, this was a big discovery. Bull markets are usually a grinding up, day by day, with a few sharp bad days down - so you have to stay in. Bulls are not built by a relatively few big jumps in other words, but by steady upward gains. Like steps up the Empire State Bldg.
tomfrompv
The Honorable Mr. Pig, Esq. asked: "Was boB brinker on live last Sunday and did he say "sell everything and buy bitcoins?"
No, but very close!!
He actually said: "Sell everything and buy pork bellies."
Tomorrow, the inflation number(s) will come out which will have a large impact on market performance.
Gabe
I learned from the boys and girls at the Clubhouse that trading future contracts have favorable tax treatment than stocks with respect to profits.......60% long term capital gains on contracts held less than one year and only 40% short term. Stocks are taxed at 35% on short term gains.....held less than a year. Very interesting!
Gabe
.
From CNBC:
The Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation trends, jumped 0.5 percent in January, well above market expectations.
Gabe this is question is for you. It involves the area of your expertise....futures. How come there's quite a difference between the last future lets say of the s&p 500, and it's almost immediately after opening price?
Flirty: My thought is that the futures are very much driven by institutional buyers and computer programs as opposed to when the market opens and primarily retail buyers and sellers play a large role. That is my understanding.
I do not see myself as an expert in futures or other aspects of market functioning.
Gabe
The 10 year is almost at 3%!
Gabe
For those keeping count the federal deficit with tax reform and recent budget deal will approach 1 Trillion in 2018 and breach the Trillion+ level in 2019 and beyond.
GDP growth is what those who voted for this mess are counting on to hold check over Trillion dollar deficits.
Interest rates and Markets will not be favorable to trillion dollar deficits in non-recessionary times.
The market sniffed this issue in the recent decline exacerbated by XIV etn and looks to be turning a blind eye.
Holding but looking for exits as we move higher.
smile
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So Smile....Why not get us all one of your crystal balls that sees the future so clearly?
I want everyone to know that those were all just your opinions - which you are entitled to....
Opinions are like body parts, everybody has at least one of them.
Honeybee,
Perhaps you should start charging for opinions and develop them as a profit center. (But that is only my opinion).
JC
PS: I sense that Bacon Boy has a vast depth of financial knowledge and acumen. Maybe offer him a position as CFO?
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JC....You are correct about "Bacon Boy" AKA Pig. He has vast knowledge about more than finances.
He has knowledge and talent that even I have not explored yet - Mostly because Mrs. Pig objects. LOL!
AMZN higher by 35 plus points at the close. What a stock!
Gabe
HB,
no crystal ball just simple math:
add to deficit:
1) tax cut bill: 1.5 trillion over ten years
2) 2 yr spending caps lifted: defense 165 billion and non defense spending 131 billion
add above to growing base deficit and you get over 1 trillion starting in 2019.
GDP gtrowth in 2017 was 2.5% and will not blunt deficit projection.
booming stock market added as much as half % to GDP (wealth effect).
you might be able to see it better here (top left corner ticking deficit bomb in the US National Debt box): http://www.usdebtclock.org/
simple math: expect 850 billion deficit in 2018 and over a trillion going forward starting 2019.
The 2k point DOW decline was nothing when/if house of cards begins to crumble.
If Bob is on this Sunday I "imagine" he will address this starting with the 2.9% pop in wage growth from the unemployment report, then a little bit on inverse vix etn's, as prelude to discussion of deficits and possible historical tipping point for debt and deficits. Now that is a crystal ball vis a vis to aforementioned simple math.
smile
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Smile.... Now tell us how the debt as a percentage of GDP might change.
MikeE said: "Opinions are like body parts, everybody has at least one of them."
Not if surgeons have removed any of them. I will let you guess what I no longer have.
LOL @ poor Bacon Boy and the future of pork belly futures.
I think the Tea Party has switched to herbal tea.
Pavlov’s Cat
HB,
I'll leave the debt to gdp prognostication to you. Suffice it to say that historically problems ensue as debt to gdp exceeds 100%. We are at about 119.4% debt/gdp now using chain weighted GDP output from Q42017. It's worse when you add in trade deficits and unfunded liabilities. The crumbling does not start overnight but over time. One day you wake up and Whaaam you have a debt crisis which craters markets. Pete Peterson group did a piece called IOUSA the movie and although dated (2008) gives rise to this concern.
I'm more concerned with the ticking deficit bomb 716B+ in a good economy (not even the worse case scenario which would be a recessionary economy) as per the debt clock I referenced as the Fed continues normalizing their balance sheet (QT) pushing more debt out... as they also normalize Fed Funds rate - naturally with increased supply interest rates must rise to attract buyers.
The approx. 300B add to deficit spending (tax cuts and budget caps removed for defense and non-defense spending going forward is not a good thing).
2017 GDP growth - 2.5% again not an offset to the spending especially if 50 bps is attributable to wealth effect of stock market.
The 2k drop in the dow was a shot across the bow... IMO, and although helped along by the inverse etn's and computer trading it was make no mistake a warning shot on the prospect of higher rates.
smile
For those looking for insightful market commentary try Larry Kudlow’s show on Saturdays, podcasts readily available. Kudlow has slowly grown on me. I still have issues with his past and his liberalism but he has good economic discussions on his show and specific investment advice. I also found his personal advice into how he conducts his own investments refreshing.
tfb
The Hottiebee writes:
Not that he knows what I look like. I have made sure that there are no photos of me on the internet over the age of three.
Not that you weren't the inspiration for every GILF site on the Internet.
tfb
So Bob Brinker failed once again as a stock market timer. Failed to advise his listeners and subscribers to get out at the top to take advantage of the 10% correction. He does not earn his subscription fees. I hope most of you no longer subscribe.
Anon: I've never subbed and have no plans to.
The Fluffy Bunny returns!
Anonymous, you'll have to live with disappointment. I have no intention at this time of discontinuing my Marketimer subsription or podcast subscription.
MK
Interesting, if we raise taxes the deficit will go down? If I understand the problem we are not taxed enough? We need to get serious and pay our fair share for government needs as they are currently forced to borrow money.
We should all quit spending so much and send more to federal government. That's the magic juice to improve the economic growth. The government will then spend our money more appropriately. Maybe to fight hunger as our overweight kids are starving.
This doesn't read so good. May a better course of action be to redirect fed spending to original Constitutional responsibility and allow the states to do the rest as they see fit? To utilize private sector as a more efficient tool to manage the needs of society instead of attempting to run to political solutions. Just saying.
Bluce, I guess I am not a good guesser.
Volatility continues! Hold on!
Gabe
Stinky, thanks for the heads up on David Stein. I listened to his most recent Bond Bear Market podcast. I will continue to explore his stuff.
MK
quote: "Interesting, if we raise taxes the deficit will go down?"
smile responds:
The premise to your question is wrong. It is again math:
Federal Tax Revenues - Federal Spending = budget (deficit/surplus/ or balance)
If you spend more than you bring in then you have deficits unless you believe in dynamic scoring with offset being GDP growth.
The problem with the recent tax cuts, they were not paid for by cuts in expenditures***** and instead are relying on GDP growth to hopefully offset the Revenue loss from lowering Corporate tax cuts.
The largest Federal expenditures are: Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security and Defense and when interest rates normalize interest on the debt will again be on the radar.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Exactly which of the big three do you want to push to the states. Lack of Leadership in Congress is the problem. Those of us concerned about deficits were counting on the Freedom Caucus (old tea party) to stand in the breach but they folded.
smile
==========
p.s.
and BTW: ***** (this is the same problem Reagan had with his Tax cuts resulting back then in doubling the debt though we did manage to bankrupt USSR via defense spending. Those who lived thru this recall George H. W. Bush running against Reagan branding this as VOODOO Economics others just called it supply side economics others called it trickle down economics, Laffer Curve etc. whatever you want to call it, it doesn't work. Crash of 1987 anyone?)
Anyone still holding on to Vanguard VWEAX and VFSUX? Maybe the last 3 letters of the second fund was a warning......
seattledoc
No one cares about the deficit just yet. The post Curious George Obama (neg 10 Trillion) kids will have to deal with it. That's down the road. At present they are clueless and could care less about it. The legislatures are too worried about giving free cell phones, unwieldy wasteful top heavy free health care , and get mocked when they speak about it. Just ask Paul Ryan. No the vast electorate who have less than 400 dollars saved just want their free stuff? Their lives are unplanned, why ask for sacrifice?
That's how the game is being played. Hints on playing.
Hire dirt cheap labor. (learn how to say in their language things like please sweep the carpet more carefully next time. Don't leave any of those grass clippings on the sidewalk. Can you put some clean towels in the cabana? In a way I feel bad for winning this game while giving money to people would will bust this by increasing border security.
Have a fit if some one talks about changing any of our benefits like SS.
I have more if you want.
Over 50 why worry? I love singing Jerry Garcia "driving that train high on cocaine...." Me? up 42 plus percent since Nov 16. To the Trump haters I'll give you a bone. I credit my wealth increase to Nancy Pelosi's dementia.
Just who is John Gault?
Big F"n SMIRK!
So Bob Brinker failed once again as a stock market timer. Failed to advise his listeners and subscribers to get out at the top to take advantage of the 10% correction. He does not earn his subscription fees. I hope most of you no longer subscribe.
I cannot believe I am going to defend the charlatan known as Bob "my son is a wuss' Brinker or Da Brink as he likes to call himself when he is forging internet identities to use to promote his monthly fonts of ignorance publication, but...
Da Brink has been pretty clear that he only attempts to time 20% moves and only looks for buying opportunities above that level.
tfb
Hello Honey
I still hold VWEAX and VFSUX? Is there something I should now about these
Gosh, what an irony. The tickers for those funds are "weaks" and "sucks".
If James is serious about asking, those funds have a "duration" of about 4 or 3 respectively. That means if market-driven interest rates continue to rise, as they have lately, the NAV of the funds will drop accordingly.
To guage it, watch the 10-yr Treasury yield. If it goes up one percent (already went up half a percent lately) then the fund's NAV will drop by the "duration" factor. For example, 1 percent rate rise in the bond market multiplied by a "4" duration equals a 4 percent NAV drop.
Check Vanguard's web site to view the duration stats on those funds.
Brinker's long-held prediction of rising interest rates has finally begun to manifest itself after a prolonged era, similar to a nuclear winter, of being long and drawn out and full of hope and ultimately full of nothing.
I feel your pain. I hold "weaks" but not "sucks".
Johnny Ross, San Fran
James Emmanuele:
Yes, there is something you need to know, their duration for one thing.
VWEAX is a high yield corporate bond fund. Average credit rating of its holdings is "B" which is down there a ways. Yield is 5.3% The duration is 4.16. Have you been listening to BB when he discusses duration? If comparable interest rates go up 1% the net asset value will decrease by 4.16%. Also know that junk bonds and junk funds generally do OK when equities do OK. But when the tide goes out, junk bonds become difficult to market so a manager of a junk bond fund becomes a "price taker." Read Larry Swedroe's book on bonds.
VFSUX is a short duration bond fund. Duration 2.68 and yield 2.65. So, you may hold your own if interest rates go up 1% in a year, which I believe they will. We discussed this today at a meeting of a non-profit I am involved with -- meeting included our financial guy. We hold this same fund.
Another financial guy I spoke with in the past year in response to my question, "is it likely that bond funds will lose value equal to their duration." His answer was "it is not only likely, it is a mathematical certainty."
So, do your due diligence. Go to Morningstar.com. It is free. There is a membership option you can pay for but you don't need that to find out basics like this.
Vanguard offers an Ultra short duration fund, VUSFX. 2% yield. 0.93 duration. Note however that inflation will get you as it will with the above.
If you don't want to juggle the vagaries of duration and yield, then go to CDs or money market. They have no duration but you will lose out to inflation.
It is tough sledding for fixed income investors.
Yes the fed had no choice but to create a risk asset nirvana in order for the financial system to survive. The DOW closed at 25200. Now what? Is the correction over? Or will it reverse back down for a retest?
Hello :
Thanks for the information. I am aware of the key data both you provided. I have 20% of my fixed income in the prime money market, 45% in a stable value fund in 401k , 25% in Short Term Investment Grade and 10% High Yield. Overall the combined duration of these is under 2 years. I am happy with this for now and will keep it. VWEAX and VFSUX are solid funds with low expenses.
Thank you for the information. I was aware of these figures. In my fixed income, I have 20% in prime money market 45% in Stable Value fund in 401K, 25% is VUSFX and 10% in VWEAX. Overall duration is well under 2. I am keeping these for now as these are low cost bond funds with a solid track record
What makes more sense right now for CDs?
1yr @ 2.00%
3yr @ 2.30%
5yr @ 2.65%
Thank you for the information. I was aware of these figures. In my fixed income, I have 20% in prime money market 45% in Stable Value fund in 401K, 25% is VUSFX and 10% in VWEAX. Overall duration is well under 2. I am keeping these for now
Duration only matters in relation to one's time horizon. What is most important is a bond fund"s quality.
Gabe
The investing tactics for higher interests rates and inflation, from my reading, about the same. These two usually go hand in hand. Inflation will flip normal practices for security and the most devilish felon in the mix. It will force more money into stocks, so the rush to treasuries for security may have a fatal flaw. Short term bonds only alleviate one risk. Also, the math for future national debt load risk becomes harder to measure.
This environmental pressure is a earnings hurdle to overcome before real earnings can be measured. Buffet describes as an internal tape worm feasting on companies balance sheets. The bond market gets tricky as conventional wisdom fails. Those corp junk bonds become a better choice. International investment choices should help stability. The most efficient companies within trade sector do the best. Low capital companies that have ability to quickly pass on costs. This to me is high tech. Exxon has a long stellar record in such times. Real property especially income will do good. Forestry and rental property a winner if managed and priced well.
As always any personal investments you can make to reduce cost of living have tremendous return. First the investment enjoys tax free returns and secondly adds a level of financial stability. Non the least the investment will compound due to elimination of inflation and per ability to increase cash flow to investment opportunities. For example, I've never had a concern of life insurance for the family given the choice to move into small paid off rental home if a disaster strikes. That option magnified the value of rental property.
This year I bought a good snow blower for roughly $1,000. This is achieving a 50% return on investment. It's fun to operate, doesn't damage the lawn, does a better snow removal job, and is totally adjustable to my time schedule. Also, in the end it does save time per my normal practices within rental property. Before it was commercial plow and hand shovel. Now mostly snow blow. There are unlimited ways to decrease the cost of living. Very lucrative and most do come with personal enjoyment perks.
For those of you wringing their hands over following a buy-and-hold strategy, here are 120 quotes on market timing that might make you feel better...
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_Larimore%27s_market_timing_quotes
Perhaps we are now witnessing BB's predicted "failed rally" in progress.
Are You a Buffett follower?
If so, there is a very detailed and interesting article over at Seeking Alpha regarding the BRK portfolio. (I received the article by email, but am not allowed to post a link).
The Author is John Vincent
The article is titled:
Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q4 2017 Update
JC
A profitable day at the Track! The Stable privately sold 2 (two) horses to a foreign buyer privately at a net profit of $13,575.
Three horses going this weekend.
Gabe
Alan in Bay Area asked:
What makes more sense right now for CDs?
1yr @ 2.00%
3yr @ 2.30%
5yr @ 2.65%
---------------------------------------------
Build a "CD ladder" of short and longer CDs. Just Google it, you will find plenty of info on how to do it and why it's a good thing.
Bluce, I'm in the process of doing just that.
If you go to Fido you can buy a CD ladder in one click. I am sure other firms have analogous ability, well, likely not Vanguard, but i was referencing quality firms. I tried to check but Vanguard's search function if not working again. FYI on the Fido thing, you can do better buying the CDs on the secondary market at Fido then the new issues.
tfb
The DOW closed at 25200. Now what? Is the correction over? Or will it reverse back down for a retest?
For anyone who cares, let me pose a question to you. On this date in 2009 where was the Dow at? If you had to look it up then I can likely assure you it really was not significant to you, now 9 years later. So, in analogous fashion, do you really think where the Dow is today will it matter to you?
If you believe Trump, that America is open for business, then where do you place your long term bets?
Logically the thing you need hedge against is having to liquidate equities in a down turn. The simple way to alleviate that problem is to create a CD or fixed income ladder to cover your need for security.
Personally I am very comfortable will 10-15 years expense in CDs and the rest in equities. But you can easily build out a 30 year CD ladder and even factor in inflation. I recently built one out for friend for 30 years, it adjust for inflation by 10% every 5 years, thus assuming roughly a 2% inflation rate, but I could have chosen any number. It is cheaper than you think, because today the interest rates are higher than the assumed inflation rate, so the present value of the future cashflows is palatable.
frankj: I've been meaning to do it for a while, just haven't gotten around to it.
I can do it right within my account in Schwab but too lazy to do all the mouse-clicks. Another First World Problem!
I don't know about ultra conservative bond ladder. My Ally savings account is within 1/2%. Reading the annual report of VWIAX- No way could I find a investment financial expert for .22% to conservatively manage keep safe. That risk is about as safe or low risk as I'm willing to go.
One has to remind ourselves that high evaluations are more susceptible to corrections, but corrections are just about impossible to time. Sure some major corrections occur in very attractive economy with high stock evaluations, but again staying in the market in such times has a better track record of wealth. These type of corrections just changes to rapidly to actively manage and some of the best growth occurs quickly. A different story if we have grey skies and sliding economics that risk recession. The Brinker and all other timing resources can only assist one to sidestep these events at least partially. I do think it is good to stay up on economic indicators as a recession can last for extended time periods.
Having said that I think Blinker's attempt to offer portfolio's with his special sauce at commission cost is a poor choice. I can grantee the guy has no Svengoolie power to know. He can only offer common wisdom with parasitic load to make one feel better. His talent lies in his early honed ability to make things appear more important in broadcasts. He would easily earn a living in infomercial business as the business skills are similar. Maybe selling gold or health supplements.
.
Trees....YES, indeed about Bob Brinker's selling skills.
He built up a mystique about his ability to call stock market tops and bottoms that he has skillfully maintained via the radio for some 30 years. That in spite of documented evidence that he cannot do either with any consistency - a coin toss could do better.
Notice the frantic pleas by so many (I didn't publish a lot of them), to find out whether or not Brinker's "special bulletin" was a buy or sell signal. It was neither!
So the mystique lives on even though he is down to about nine hours per month on the air.
tfb wrote: "Logically the thing you need hedge against is having to liquidate equities in a down turn. The simple way to alleviate that problem is to create a CD or fixed income ladder to cover your need for security. "
Thank you for your common sense book "Explore TIPS." To supplement social security I am building an inflation-protected pension-like income stream using a non-rolling government-issued TIPS bond ladder.
Honeybee said:
Notice the frantic pleas by so many (I didn't publish a lot of them), to find out whether or not Brinker's "special bulletin" was a buy or sell signal. It was neither!
Honeybee,
Would the missive be correctly categorized as a "Blinker Special Blatherton?"
JC
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So far so good with the stock market recovery after its 10% correction.
From CNBC:
Stocks close higher, S&P 500 post biggest weekly gain since 2013
The S&P 500 rose 4.3 percent this week, posting its best weekly performance in five years.
The broad index also closed higher for a sixth straight session, along with the Dow.
I expect Brinker to be live tomorrow. It should be interesting to hear if he mentions his Special Subscriber message at all. It could be fun to hear a caller try to bring it up and Brinker interrupt him mid-sentence to try to not let the cat out of the bag for all the "freeloaders", a term I believe that Don Lane and Mr. Topes liked to use for non-subscribers.
My money is on:
Blinker will be live tomorrow, but will not mention the correction other than to comment on it off-hand, and hoping people took advantage of it or whatever. He will never mention that people were expecting him to issue a signal or something.
Figure out what asset allocation you're comfortable with, build it, and let 'er run. Listen only to Bobby for the humor, as I do, then comment on it right here at Honey's wonderful blog.
.
Jerrod...very good description of the February 12th "special bulletin."
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Bluce...With every market move up, it becomes more unlikely that the 10.1% correction bottom will be "retested" as Brinker is hoping for....
If it never retrenches that far, he has blown another opportunity to issue another useless 'buying opportunity" for those who follow his advice and stay fully invested via dollar-cost-averaging.
.
Jim said: It could be fun to hear a caller try to bring it up and Brinker interrupt him mid-sentence to try to not let the cat out of the bag for all the "freeloaders", a term I believe that Don Lane and Mr. Topes liked to use for non-subscribers.
Jim, yes it will be fun tomorrow if someone gets on the air and manages to say he "followed" Brinker's special bulletin. LOL!
Of course, all one has to do to follow it is nothing they weren't doing before. So that might make it a subject that Brinker makes a great effort to cover up.
.
And Jim....You are correct. Brinker, as Don Lane and Mr. Topes made it more than clear that he utterly despises all radio "freeloaders."
Of course without them, he never would have sold enough newsletters to make him worth at least $28 million.
Still, the old fart may yet pull out a surprise. “The market will do, what the market will do!”
Stay tuned.
Pavlov’s Cat
Honey: LOL @ all the "negative" comments made by you and everyone here about what to expect. Haha. More:
"Nuttin' here, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
" . . . and the 'young sprouts' . . . " (Gads, he needs some new cliches)
" . . . all over you like a cheap suit."
" . . . the chances are somewhere between slim and none, and I saw Slim headin' outta town at high noon."
Blinker really should have been a comedian. Who else could come up with a show like his, disguised as a "get rich quick" shuckster side-show?
A major reason for my cancelling my subscription to Marketimer was the incompetent and rude office staff. Several requests and or inquiries were met with sarcasm and stupidity.
A third place finish yesterday. Two going today.
Gabe
Gabe: Some of Bobby's help is rude?
Hard to imagine Bobby hiring someone like that, with him always being so polite and civil with callers.
[cough]
.
Gabe and Bluce...I get emails from people who have encountered the rudeness of the Brinker office "staff" even when just asking a question while trying to subscribe.
The two Bob Brinker's are just too elite to be bothered with anyone on an individual basis.
Just send your money, sing their praises, and shut the heck up, seems to be their attitude.
HB and Bluce: 100% correct!
Gabe
I wonder if Brinker's staff even answered the phones during the QQQ debacle.
LOL, thanks Honey. I'm shocked!
I remember BB ignoring stocks during the 2008-09 downturn by talking endless about Dr. Wattenburg, natutal gas and how they took out a two inch ad in the Wash Post. And they just couldn't out why Obama would ignore their great idea. No mention of stocks, just nat gas.
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