This is a Bob Brinker Fan Club and Critic Club. We join the Starship Moneytalk each Sunday on our way to Marketimer's Land of Critical Mass. We will post brief commentary about Bob Brinker's Moneytalk.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
December 31, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk (ReRuns)
December 31, 2017....HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!
As expected, Bob Brinker was not on live today. Moneytalk was all re-run monologues and spliced-together old calls. (It would be more honest if that fact was announced on air.)
. MikeE...Basically it is his third week in December.
Bob Brinker played reruns on December 10th, December 24th and December 31st (today)
Here is the list for 2017:
2017 January 1st: Re-Runs January 15th: Re-Runs February 5th: Two Hours Live; Re-run calls 3rd hour February 19th: Re-runs March 5th: Re-Runs April 9: Re-Runs May 14: Re-Runs May 28: Re-Runs July 2: Re-Runs July 16: Re-Runs September 10: Re-Runs October 22: Re-Runs November 26: Re-Runs December 10: Re-Runs December 24: Re-Runs December 31: Re-Runs
. There are 52 weeks in a year. Bob Brinker's Moneytalk is broadcast once per week (on Sundays).
He cleverly deceives the audience into believing he is on the air live but we here all know better.
Too bad that over 1/4 of the programs that people are paying to hear via Moneytalk on Demand, are really re-runs. That is the reason Brinker doesn't announce the re-runs (IMO).
As Brinker often preaches: Beware of those SHARKS out there trying to take a bite out of your wallet. I would say to him: Yes, Bob, and you certainly know about sharks.
That’s four weeks of reruns out of the last six. Hard to believe that anyone would pay for Moneytalk on Demand if Brinker was honest about repackaged shows.
FWIW: Although we don't know how long ago it was, Bobby was just preaching (yet again) about staying short on bond fund durations. Well short rates have gone up in the past two years, but long rates haven't responded in kind.
What about that grammar-school math exercise for calculating principle losses during rising rates in all bond funds, Bobby? I'm not a financial expert but you supposedly are, so what's the answer?
Maybe I'll wait until you get your crystal ball fixed. Meanwhile, my bond-heavy portfolio did well for 2017, and the portfolio duration is going to stay at 4.5 years.
Anybody have an opinion on what intermediate term bond ETFs may be worth looking into? I have allocated enough to stocks for my comfort zone and the cash I have sitting in money markets I would rather boost the yield via bonds.
I think Lou,the bond caller from the 15 minute mark of hour 3 was trying to ask Bob whether a bond fund would effectively "break even" if it is held long enough. The thing is, if rates keep rising slowly over the years, the NAV will drop commensurately I believe.
I think you all have looked at the charts that show how the US dollar graphed against gold, bonds, and stocks looks. Stocks do the best but bonds do great versus cash. I don't see why bonds get trash talked as much as they do.
JC: Haha, doing reruns of reruns. Why didn't I think of that? Something tells me Bobby has already has, and is probably doing it.
But it must get really confusing. To "change" a rerun he could mix the hours back and forth with existing reruns. And to paste together a "new" rerun, every call has to be listened to so there is no reference to current events. I hope he has a good way of keeping track of everything.
Seems like it would be easier TO JUST BE HONEST and announce them as reruns, as EVERY OTHER talk radio host does.
. Andy D.....I haven't checked to see if Brinker has posted his portfolio's performance for 2017 yet, but I sure know this: I'll take a steak just like that one - well done, please. :)
If you're not already using the Walmart app on your mobil device you might want to start.
If you install this on your mobile, open it & under Tools there's something called The Savings Catcher. It allows you to scan your Walmart receipts for purchases within 7 days. It compares Your purchase prices against competitors and gives you the price & tax savings if there are any.
You can spend accumulated savings using an e-card or Wal-Mart pay using ur device or at Wal-Mart online.
FWIW: My "juicy" 40/60 portfolio returned 9.65% for 2017 (everything is reinvested). S&P was +21.83%.
If you multiply 21.83 by 40%, you get 8.73%. So I'm close enough for brain surgery. This is surprisingly accurate, year after year, no matter what your AA is -- assuming one has mostly plain vanilla/index funds, and bonds don't move much, and also assuming you don't jump in and out of the market every time the wind blows.
It's all gravy for me anyway, as I've been at escape velocity (or is it critical mass?) for some time now. But I'm too chicken to stop working, relax, and actually start taking the income from my portfolio. Buy I enjoy my business so I guess I'll wait and let the nursing home have it all.
Smile: Thanks for the tip on Walmart's Savings Catcher. I see another option is to access this online via https://savingscatcher.walmart.com if you registered on Walmart.com (without using the app).
Bluce: Yes, 2017 was a profitable year. My 30/70 "Portfolio 3 Lite" produced 9.19% internal rate of return.
Has it occurred to anyone that the increased frequency of Brinker rerun programs over time may be connected to the increasing financial challenges of Cumulus Radio which broadcasts Brinker’s MoneyTalk Program. Maybe it’s not under Brinker’s control and Cumulus is increasingly trying to save Money out of Brinker’s hide.
Post with a handle or don't waste your time. This is the last time I will repeat this request THIS YEAR. I have made a New Year's Resolution that I intend to keep - no more anonymous comments will be publish.
And second: That may win the ridiculous comments for the rest of 2018 award.
Yes I was going to mention the online method but got lazy on the dictation of that post from my tablet, also felt the app was easier in that the online one you have to enter the 20 digit TC# but with the app all you do is scan the little square info graphic and it pulls that automatically.
Good that you mentioned the online method for those who can't or choose not to use the Walmart app. with the Savings Catcher tool.
Predictions: the last time Charlie Maxwell was on in August (from the 3rd hour summary):
"Bob queried Charlie on the prices for West Texas Intermediate. Charlie said it is now at $45-46 per barrel and should range from $38 to 50 for the rest of the year. Prices in 2018: $49, and in 2019 and 2020, $54 and $57 respectively. These higher prices reflect a lack of investment over the last few years. "
The Wall Street Journal reports crude oil at $60.42 per barrel, a 52 week high. As Charlie once said,"if you're going to make predictions, do it often,"
Marketimer portfolio performances have been updated and congrats to Mr B for beating VTSMX with his equity selections for 2017. However his Portfolios 1 and 2 still underperform over the last five and ten years from his fully invested stance during the 2008-09 bear market.
On the bright side he is proudly named to the Hulbert Financial Digest 2017-2018 Honor Roll. As previously discussed here, we all know what that is worth.
. Hi Birdbrain....I will pull one of Brinker's tricks and choose where I want to go back to.
These numbers came from Bob Brinker's Marketimer website. Notice that the much-touted fixed income portfolio is not included - it never is.
10 years ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios: Portfolio I: 116% Portfolio II: 118% Portfolio III: 80% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities) Active/Passive: 106% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 128% (VTSMX)
5 years ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios: Portfolio I: 96% Portfolio II: 94% Portfolio III: 52% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities) Active/Passive: 91% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 104% (VTSMX)
1 year ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios: Portfolio I: 23% Portfolio II: 23% Portfolio III: 14% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities) Active/Passive: 22% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 21% (VTSMX)
. Birdbrain...You and nobody else wants to get me on my soapbox about one of the biggest scams being perpetrated on investors - and has been for almost 20 years: Mark Hulbert and Bob Brinker making up an "honor roll" that means nothing and using it to sell "investment letters" for both of them.
For 2017 Brinker's Fixed Income Portfolio returned 3.9% which beat the 3.2% return on the funds he owned prior to the "taper tantrum" of 2013. This was mostly due to his inclusion of junk bonds in the portfolio. It had little to do with duration. Currently I cannot find the numbers I posted a year ago but Brinker's current portfolio was trailing his older portfolio by around 5-6% going into 2017 so picking up a small gain of 0.70% still doesn't make up the deficit. Once again 2017 was a good year for Long-Term bond funds. Those funds returned anywhere from 8-12% so anyone who sold Long-Term bond funds based on Brinker's advice during the taper tantrum of 2013 has missed out on more than the 5-6% I mentioned.
. Thanks Jim. I will see if I can find your numbers from before.
He traded the solid safety of a big Vanguard Ginnie Mae holding for the risk of junk bonds and high expense costs. And those junk bonds don't even have the solidness of being a Vanguard High Yield Fund.
. Note to Jim from Carmel....Take your hate for President Trump and his supporters some place where it will be welcome. It is not welcome here.
I'm curious as to why you would think this is the place for your disgusting lies and bias that is going to destroy this country if you and your ilk continue down that road.
But don't bother to explain, I'm not that curious.
. Jim...Unfortunately your hostess, Moi, made a big mistake a while back and learned a very hard lesson. On some things Google is very unforgiving. I accidentally pushed the wrong key and blew away all of 2016 - my QQQ blunder for this blog.
I could find no way to bring it back. IOW: No second chances from them. Talk about furious with myself and them! That was me!
However, I found your work where you researched what Bob Brinker's income portfolio did compared to what it would have done had he not gone off the deep end in 2013 and dived into low-duration bond funds. I don't see how there is any way his followers ever could have made up what was lost just that first year.
It's important to know that in 2013, Brinker moved into all low-duration, high-credit risk funds. Jim researched how much these moves cost Brinker's followers in missed profits. Please carefully read Jim's numbers:
Jim said... I've taken a look at Bob Brinker's final performance numbers for his fixed income portfolio. For calendar year 2014 his Income portfolio was +1.10%. If he had not made any changes from his prior holdings he would have been +6.11%. Here is the breakdown: DLTNX +6.47 vs. DLSNX +1.35, DODIX +5.48% vs. OSTIX +1.26%, MWTRX +5.83% vs. MWLDX +1.39%, and finally VFIIX +6.65% vs. FFRHX +0.41%. All this was calculated using the numbers from M*.
Using the numbers from Yahoo Finance I've come up with the performance from the point he made his changes. They are as follows: DLTNX +7.66% vs. DLSNX +2.02%, DODIX +6.99% vs. OSTIX 1.79%, MWTRX +6.54% vs. MWLDX +2.09%, and finally VFIIX +8.2% vs. FFRHX +2.23%. Overall that computes to an average of 7.35% vs. 2.23%.
Using either time frame Brinker's funds that he sold outperformed the funds he bought by 5+%. It's going to be difficult for his followers to ever make up the 5+% of additional gains that they missed by following his bond timing advice.
Happy new year everybody. We do have allot to be thankful for. My 401k is +30%. Trump is the best President ever. He saved over $1 billion on the new Air Force One contract, then he got Carrier & FORD to stay in the USA, created thousands of coal jobs, got NATO to increase their payments, got Intel to open a new $7 billion plant, building the wall and will get Mexico to pay believe me, found 3 million illegals voting for Hillary, caught Obama wire tapping Trump Tower, did more than any President ever so far! We can say Merry Christmas again! and know what bathroom to use, he won't let boys marry boys and he increased the stock market way more than that Muslim Barry Obama and took unemployment from 42% down to 4.1%. Trump will nuke Iran and North Korea because they deserve it. Next he will get rid of the media and FBI, then lock up rapist Bill & crooked Hillary up for colluding with Russians, and don't forget the email server and Benghazi. She said it was a cartoon!!! MAGA!!!
Another possible reason why Brinker is playing reruns so frequently - the man was born in 1941 per Wikipedia. That would make him 76 years old at the end of 2017. Most 76 year old folks are slowing down, and Brinker may be no exception
That being said, age alone is no good reason for Brinker to give us repackaged calls for four out of six weeks. If he can’t do the job, he should give up the program.
. Stinky...Brinker needs to hold on the Moneytalk (national radio broadcast) as long as he can do it and still live the good life.
How else would Marketimer and his son's "investment letter" get free national advertising every week.
How many $millions has Brinker's son made just by using his father's name online and in his newsletter? He's a guy with a degree in Computer IT, who loves to ski and is married to a linguist.
How did he make it on Hulbert's list IMMEDIATELY when he began with his "fixed income" advice? Ya think it might have had something to do with his daddy, Hulbert's BFF?
I calculated portfolio II 118% total return for 10yr at 8.1% average annual return.
Port II 8.1% VTI 8.5% Contra 9.0% Sm Cap 9.9% Juicy 9.2% mentioned in comments Welles 7.0% wellesley
Comments- Small cap always does a tad better in long run. Port II has the highest return for BB, but other funds do as well in stand alone. Wellesley is a very good conservative fund and low cost with good return. Read Rick Ferri article "The center of gravity for retirees". It looks like very close to Wellesley.
The Juicy link had some interesting info. The '71-'17 growth of $10k wherein juicy outperformed VFINX S&P 500. The interesting part is how much the S&P dropped during recessions/bear markets. I do think timing the market is mostly a fools errand, but getting out of market during recession risk is wise. The only way one would have a chance of that is to forget financial advise and rely on six or so stats that foretell of economic danger. One could be a simple moving average of the index dropping below mean. In dangerous times it is better to act than ride. Currently, no such danger.
The Juicy portfolio has gold 15% as leverage for bad conditions. The site had this link of interest /www.hedgewise.com/blog/marketcommentary/still-diversifying-wrong.php
The suspicious part of the 60/30/10 portfolio was a large chunk of time was left out of the evaluation. Why?
After reading several of your recent posts, I must conclude that you too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful Button than either rocket-man's or President Trump's.
. Mad as Hell....Weeelllll....My big, beautiful, powerful nuke button gets pushed a lot these days.
It seems like there are some who think they may teach me a thing or two about President Trump. LOL! They are clueless about me and what I have been doing for the past couple of years.
"Prosecutors said Tucker’s Kansas-based business, which operated under names including Ameriloan and OneClickCash, routinely charged interest rates as high as 700 percent, exploiting more than 4 million people from 1997 to 2013."
Complete Article: (Check out the photo - it's priceless!)
49 comments:
Is this Bob's third week in a row that he has been on leave?
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MikeE...Basically it is his third week in December.
Bob Brinker played reruns on December 10th, December 24th and December 31st (today)
Here is the list for 2017:
2017
January 1st: Re-Runs
January 15th: Re-Runs
February 5th: Two Hours Live; Re-run calls 3rd hour
February 19th: Re-runs
March 5th: Re-Runs
April 9: Re-Runs
May 14: Re-Runs
May 28: Re-Runs
July 2: Re-Runs
July 16: Re-Runs
September 10: Re-Runs
October 22: Re-Runs
November 26: Re-Runs
December 10: Re-Runs
December 24: Re-Runs
December 31: Re-Runs
Bob takes off about a third of the year. This show needs more guest hosts. No new blood wants to sit in for him?
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There are 52 weeks in a year. Bob Brinker's Moneytalk is broadcast once per week (on Sundays).
He cleverly deceives the audience into believing he is on the air live but we here all know better.
Too bad that over 1/4 of the programs that people are paying to hear via Moneytalk on Demand, are really re-runs. That is the reason Brinker doesn't announce the re-runs (IMO).
As Brinker often preaches: Beware of those SHARKS out there trying to take a bite out of your wallet. I would say to him: Yes, Bob, and you certainly know about sharks.
That’s four weeks of reruns out of the last six. Hard to believe that anyone would pay for Moneytalk on Demand if Brinker was honest about repackaged shows.
Happy New Years to all who know the inside scoop on Rerun Bobby.
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Stinky...It is hard to believe, but I have gotten mail from people who did not know there were re-runs until they read it here on this blog.
So rest assured, Brinker is still raking in the dough for Moneytalk on Demand by selling re-packaged old programs.
Imagine yourself getting a fat deposit to your PayPal account each month for doing nothing. Nice, huh?
That's it in a nutshell, Honey.
So long Bobby, cya next year (maybe?)
FWIW: Although we don't know how long ago it was, Bobby was just preaching (yet again) about staying short on bond fund durations. Well short rates have gone up in the past two years, but long rates haven't responded in kind.
What about that grammar-school math exercise for calculating principle losses during rising rates in all bond funds, Bobby? I'm not a financial expert but you supposedly are, so what's the answer?
Maybe I'll wait until you get your crystal ball fixed. Meanwhile, my bond-heavy portfolio did well for 2017, and the portfolio duration is going to stay at 4.5 years.
Anybody have an opinion on what intermediate term bond ETFs may be worth looking into? I have allocated enough to stocks for my comfort zone and the cash I have sitting in money markets I would rather boost the yield via bonds.
tom: outside of individual CA Muni bonds that I own, both VTEB and VCAIX and both are working fine for me as sweeps when my short term munis mature.
tom: for a list, start here:
https://www.thebalance.com/bond-etfs-the-complete-updated-list-416949
I think Lou,the bond caller from the 15 minute mark of hour 3 was trying to ask Bob whether a bond fund would effectively "break even" if it is held long enough. The thing is, if rates keep rising slowly over the years, the NAV will drop commensurately I believe.
I think you all have looked at the charts that show how the US dollar graphed against gold, bonds, and stocks looks. Stocks do the best but bonds do great versus cash. I don't see why bonds get trash talked as much as they do.
Honeybee,
That rerun list is astounding!
Going forward in 2018, I wonder if Bob will start rerunning reruns?
"Welcome to HiatusTalk"
What a disservice to followers. What a snooze-fest.
JC
JC: Haha, doing reruns of reruns. Why didn't I think of that? Something tells me Bobby has already has, and is probably doing it.
But it must get really confusing. To "change" a rerun he could mix the hours back and forth with existing reruns. And to paste together a "new" rerun, every call has to be listened to so there is no reference to current events. I hope he has a good way of keeping track of everything.
Seems like it would be easier TO JUST BE HONEST and announce them as reruns, as EVERY OTHER talk radio host does.
Brian Wesbury, First Trust Securities. Great site. Great info. Solid economist. He would be a great replacement host.
Pavlov’s Cat
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Here's my opinion about a replacement for Bob Brinker.
It can't be done.
Bob Brinker is so unique and has such an amazing money-making model that it would be impossible for anyone to step into his shoes and be successful.
I guess I should clarify, Wesbury would be a great fill in!
IMO.
Pavlov’s Cat
Happy New Year Honey. My Juicy Portfolio returned 16.47% for 2017. I wonder how Bob's portfolios performed for 2017.
http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html
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Andy D.....I haven't checked to see if Brinker has posted his portfolio's performance for 2017 yet, but I sure know this: I'll take a steak just like that one - well done, please. :)
Attention Walmart shoppers
If you're not already using the Walmart app on your mobil device you might want to start.
If you install this on your mobile, open it & under Tools there's something called The Savings Catcher. It allows you to scan your Walmart receipts for purchases within 7 days. It compares Your purchase prices against competitors and gives you the price & tax savings if there are any.
You can spend accumulated savings using an e-card or Wal-Mart pay using ur device or at Wal-Mart online.
smile
FWIW: My "juicy" 40/60 portfolio returned 9.65% for 2017 (everything is reinvested). S&P was +21.83%.
If you multiply 21.83 by 40%, you get 8.73%. So I'm close enough for brain surgery. This is surprisingly accurate, year after year, no matter what your AA is -- assuming one has mostly plain vanilla/index funds, and bonds don't move much, and also assuming you don't jump in and out of the market every time the wind blows.
It's all gravy for me anyway, as I've been at escape velocity (or is it critical mass?) for some time now. But I'm too chicken to stop working, relax, and actually start taking the income from my portfolio. Buy I enjoy my business so I guess I'll wait and let the nursing home have it all.
Smile: Thanks for the tip on Walmart's Savings Catcher. I see another option is to access this online via https://savingscatcher.walmart.com if you registered on Walmart.com (without using the app).
Bluce: Yes, 2017 was a profitable year. My 30/70 "Portfolio 3 Lite" produced 9.19% internal rate of return.
Has it occurred to anyone that the increased frequency of Brinker rerun programs over time may be connected to the increasing financial challenges of Cumulus Radio which broadcasts Brinker’s MoneyTalk Program. Maybe it’s not under Brinker’s control and Cumulus is increasingly trying to save Money out of Brinker’s hide.
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Anonymous....Two things:
Post with a handle or don't waste your time. This is the last time I will repeat this request THIS YEAR. I have made a New Year's Resolution that I intend to keep - no more anonymous comments will be publish.
And second: That may win the ridiculous comments for the rest of 2018 award.
Biker,
Yes I was going to mention the online method but got lazy on the dictation of that post from my tablet, also felt the app was easier in that the online one you have to enter the 20 digit TC# but with the app all you do is scan the little square info graphic and it pulls that automatically.
Good that you mentioned the online method for those who can't or choose not to use the Walmart app. with the Savings Catcher tool.
smile
Predictions: the last time Charlie Maxwell was on in August (from the 3rd hour summary):
"Bob queried Charlie on the prices for West Texas Intermediate. Charlie said it is now at $45-46 per barrel and should range from $38 to 50 for the rest of the year. Prices in 2018: $49, and in 2019 and 2020, $54 and $57 respectively. These higher prices reflect a lack of investment over the last few years. "
The Wall Street Journal reports crude oil at $60.42 per barrel, a 52 week high. As Charlie once said,"if you're going to make predictions, do it often,"
Marketimer portfolio performances have been updated and congrats to Mr B for beating VTSMX with his equity selections for 2017. However his Portfolios 1 and 2 still underperform over the last five and ten years from his fully invested stance during the 2008-09 bear market.
On the bright side he is proudly named to the Hulbert Financial Digest 2017-2018 Honor Roll. As previously discussed here, we all know what that is worth.
.
Hi Birdbrain....I will pull one of Brinker's tricks and choose where I want to go back to.
These numbers came from Bob Brinker's Marketimer website. Notice that the much-touted fixed income portfolio is not included - it never is.
10 years ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 116%
Portfolio II: 118%
Portfolio III: 80% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: 106%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 128% (VTSMX)
5 years ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 96%
Portfolio II: 94%
Portfolio III: 52% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: 91%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 104% (VTSMX)
1 year ended 12-31-2017 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 23%
Portfolio II: 23%
Portfolio III: 14% (balanced portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities)
Active/Passive: 22%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund: 21% (VTSMX)
.
Birdbrain...You and nobody else wants to get me on my soapbox about one of the biggest scams being perpetrated on investors - and has been for almost 20 years: Mark Hulbert and Bob Brinker making up an "honor roll" that means nothing and using it to sell "investment letters" for both of them.
.
Very nice! This from Fox Business alert:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs, as stocks rallied to kick off a new year of trading.
For 2017 Brinker's Fixed Income Portfolio returned 3.9% which beat the 3.2% return on the funds he owned prior to the "taper tantrum" of 2013. This was mostly due to his inclusion of junk bonds in the portfolio. It had little to do with duration. Currently I cannot find the numbers I posted a year ago but Brinker's current portfolio was trailing his older portfolio by around 5-6% going into 2017 so picking up a small gain of 0.70% still doesn't make up the deficit. Once again 2017 was a good year for Long-Term bond funds. Those funds returned anywhere from 8-12% so anyone who sold Long-Term bond funds based on Brinker's advice during the taper tantrum of 2013 has missed out on more than the 5-6% I mentioned.
.
Thanks Jim. I will see if I can find your numbers from before.
He traded the solid safety of a big Vanguard Ginnie Mae holding for the risk of junk bonds and high expense costs. And those junk bonds don't even have the solidness of being a Vanguard High Yield Fund.
.
Note to Jim from Carmel....Take your hate for President Trump and his supporters some place where it will be welcome. It is not welcome here.
I'm curious as to why you would think this is the place for your disgusting lies and bias that is going to destroy this country if you and your ilk continue down that road.
But don't bother to explain, I'm not that curious.
.
Jim...Unfortunately your hostess, Moi, made a big mistake a while back and learned a very hard lesson. On some things Google is very unforgiving. I accidentally pushed the wrong key and blew away all of 2016 - my QQQ blunder for this blog.
I could find no way to bring it back. IOW: No second chances from them. Talk about furious with myself and them! That was me!
However, I found your work where you researched what Bob Brinker's income portfolio did compared to what it would have done had he not gone off the deep end in 2013 and dived into low-duration bond funds. I don't see how there is any way his followers ever could have made up what was lost just that first year.
I will post it and a link to it in my next post.
.
This was published in an article I titled: April 9, 2015, Bob Brinker "2014 Bond Timer of the Year" According to Timer Digest
It's important to know that in 2013, Brinker moved into all low-duration, high-credit risk funds. Jim researched how much these moves cost Brinker's followers in missed profits. Please carefully read Jim's numbers:
Jim said...
I've taken a look at Bob Brinker's final performance numbers for his fixed income portfolio. For calendar year 2014 his Income portfolio was +1.10%. If he had not made any changes from his prior holdings he would have been +6.11%. Here is the breakdown: DLTNX +6.47 vs. DLSNX +1.35, DODIX +5.48% vs. OSTIX +1.26%, MWTRX +5.83% vs. MWLDX +1.39%, and finally VFIIX +6.65% vs. FFRHX +0.41%. All this was calculated using the numbers from M*.
Using the numbers from Yahoo Finance I've come up with the performance from the point he made his changes. They are as follows: DLTNX +7.66% vs. DLSNX +2.02%, DODIX +6.99% vs. OSTIX 1.79%, MWTRX +6.54% vs. MWLDX +2.09%, and finally VFIIX +8.2% vs. FFRHX +2.23%. Overall that computes to an average of 7.35% vs. 2.23%.
Using either time frame Brinker's funds that he sold outperformed the funds he bought by 5+%. It's going to be difficult for his followers to ever make up the 5+% of additional gains that they missed by following his bond timing advice.
January 2, 2015 at 9:44 AM
Thanks for searching, I appreciate it.
Happy new year everybody. We do have allot to be thankful for. My 401k is +30%. Trump is the best President ever. He saved over $1 billion on the new Air Force One contract, then he got Carrier & FORD to stay in the USA, created thousands of coal jobs, got NATO to increase their payments, got Intel to open a new $7 billion plant, building the wall and will get Mexico to pay believe me, found 3 million illegals voting for Hillary, caught Obama wire tapping Trump Tower, did more than any President ever so far!
We can say Merry Christmas again! and know what bathroom to use, he won't let boys marry boys and he increased the stock market way more than that Muslim Barry Obama and took unemployment from 42% down to 4.1%. Trump will nuke Iran and North Korea because they deserve it.
Next he will get rid of the media and FBI, then lock up rapist Bill & crooked Hillary up for colluding with Russians, and don't forget the email server and Benghazi. She said it was a cartoon!!!
MAGA!!!
Bill Thruxton
Another possible reason why Brinker is playing reruns so frequently - the man was born in 1941 per Wikipedia. That would make him 76 years old at the end of 2017. Most 76 year old folks are slowing down, and Brinker may be no exception
That being said, age alone is no good reason for Brinker to give us repackaged calls for four out of six weeks. If he can’t do the job, he should give up the program.
My two cents.
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Wow, this looks good:
U.S. manufacturing surges in December, ISM shows
By Greg Robb
Published: Jan 3, 2018 11:02 a.m. ET
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Stinky...Brinker needs to hold on the Moneytalk (national radio broadcast) as long as he can do it and still live the good life.
How else would Marketimer and his son's "investment letter" get free national advertising every week.
How many $millions has Brinker's son made just by using his father's name online and in his newsletter? He's a guy with a degree in Computer IT, who loves to ski and is married to a linguist.
How did he make it on Hulbert's list IMMEDIATELY when he began with his "fixed income" advice? Ya think it might have had something to do with his daddy, Hulbert's BFF?
I calculated portfolio II 118% total return for 10yr at 8.1% average annual return.
Port II 8.1%
VTI 8.5%
Contra 9.0%
Sm Cap 9.9%
Juicy 9.2% mentioned in comments
Welles 7.0% wellesley
Comments- Small cap always does a tad better in long run. Port II has the highest return for BB, but other funds do as well in stand alone. Wellesley is a very good conservative fund and low cost with good return. Read Rick Ferri article "The center of gravity for retirees". It looks like very close to Wellesley.
The Juicy link had some interesting info. The '71-'17 growth of $10k wherein juicy outperformed VFINX S&P 500. The interesting part is how much the S&P dropped during recessions/bear markets. I do think timing the market is mostly a fools errand, but getting out of market during recession risk is wise. The only way one would have a chance of that is to forget financial advise and rely on six or so stats that foretell of economic danger. One could be a simple moving average of the index dropping below mean. In dangerous times it is better to act than ride. Currently, no such danger.
The Juicy portfolio has gold 15% as leverage for bad conditions. The site had this link of interest /www.hedgewise.com/blog/marketcommentary/still-diversifying-wrong.php
The suspicious part of the 60/30/10 portfolio was a large chunk of time was left out of the evaluation. Why?
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Stock market today according to Fox Business:
Wall Street closed at new all-time highs Wednesday, bringing the Dow closer to the 25,000 milestone.
Honeybee,
After reading several of your recent posts, I must conclude that you too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful Button than either rocket-man's or President Trump's.
And your Button works!
;-)
.
Mad as Hell....Weeelllll....My big, beautiful, powerful nuke button gets pushed a lot these days.
It seems like there are some who think they may teach me a thing or two about President Trump. LOL! They are clueless about me and what I have been doing for the past couple of years.
Well Honey, what have you been doing the last couple years?
JC are you back in the market? It went straight up after you sold.
Is someone going to call the ROCKET MAN's bluff? Bush & Carter were week in the "nukular" pronunciation
Hey Ken, you might want to check the definition of "week."
Hey That Bob,
What is your guidance re: "payday loans?"
"Prosecutors said Tucker’s Kansas-based business, which operated under names including Ameriloan and OneClickCash, routinely charged interest rates as high as 700 percent, exploiting more than 4 million people from 1997 to 2013."
Complete Article: (Check out the photo - it's priceless!)
https://goo.gl/GNF4az
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