Since there is nothing new on Moneytalk. And having read the September issue of Marketimer, I can say there is nothing really new there either, But he does not see a recession or bear market this year.
September 4, 2017, Marketimer, Page Two; Paragraph Eight......Brinker wrote: "Our Marketimer economic indicators suggest that a recession remains a low probability in the foreseeable future. In the absence of recession, a bear market decline in excess of 20% is unlikely based on historical evidence. This suggests that any pullback related to mid-term election year history could be contained within the context of a correction of less than 20%. Over the past 14 mid-term election year declines, investors have escaped with corrections of less than 20% on eight occasions. Seven of the last eight mid-term election year bottoms followed declines of less than 20% based on the S&P 500 Index closing prices."Now we are going to have some fun. Here are some of the most entertaining and educational comments sent to the blog this week.
We start with Mr. Waiting, the Moneytalk caller of all time - and then Ghost of Bob:
Jester said...
… and our next caller is Waiting, you’re on MoneyTalk.
Hi Bob, been an avid reader of MarkeTimer until our local library stopped receiving copies, probably over a dozen or so years ago. Had been listening to MoneyTalk to Go, until I realized you no longer worked Saturday afternoons, yet I didn’t notice a 50% reduction in what you charged, so I budget-cut that over-priced expense. I noticed that when you take a “well deserved day off” from your Sunday shows, I noticed you no longer have guest speakers like the folksy Bill Flanagan (R.I.P.) or those two women, Lynn Jimenoz being one of those. Now only previously broadcast spliced-together callers’ Q and A and old commentary.
… and your question Waiting?
My retired friends and myself, on behalf of our little town of Godot, want to ask you, should we continue to stick with the short duration, low-quality bond funds you recommended for us amidst the “taper tantrum” in the first half of ’13? We have been taking a drubbing on the total return of these 3 bond funds, not in small measure to their expense ratios of .70%, 1.04% and .88%. Considering that the Fed has only raised interest rates 1% since the beginning of ’09 and not likely to raise rates again until sometime in 2018, should we continue to market-time what the Fed will do and when they will do it?
Waiting... Is it like “a broken watch is right twice a day”?
Bob… Yes, a broken watch is right twice a day!
Bob… I think you answered your own question Waiting and can go to the head of the class today! Another fine question deftly fielded here today on MoneyTalk, this time from Waiting for Godot.
Hi Bob, been an avid reader of MarkeTimer until our local library stopped receiving copies, probably over a dozen or so years ago. Had been listening to MoneyTalk to Go, until I realized you no longer worked Saturday afternoons, yet I didn’t notice a 50% reduction in what you charged, so I budget-cut that over-priced expense. I noticed that when you take a “well deserved day off” from your Sunday shows, I noticed you no longer have guest speakers like the folksy Bill Flanagan (R.I.P.) or those two women, Lynn Jimenoz being one of those. Now only previously broadcast spliced-together callers’ Q and A and old commentary.
… and your question Waiting?
My retired friends and myself, on behalf of our little town of Godot, want to ask you, should we continue to stick with the short duration, low-quality bond funds you recommended for us amidst the “taper tantrum” in the first half of ’13? We have been taking a drubbing on the total return of these 3 bond funds, not in small measure to their expense ratios of .70%, 1.04% and .88%. Considering that the Fed has only raised interest rates 1% since the beginning of ’09 and not likely to raise rates again until sometime in 2018, should we continue to market-time what the Fed will do and when they will do it?
Waiting... Is it like “a broken watch is right twice a day”?
Bob… Yes, a broken watch is right twice a day!
Bob… I think you answered your own question Waiting and can go to the head of the class today! Another fine question deftly fielded here today on MoneyTalk, this time from Waiting for Godot.
Ghost of Bob said...
Smile said last week, "BTW I did buy some qqq's on Bob's advice back in 2000 but I waited and averaged in at better lower prices. I still own about 340 shares with a 2 bagger return approaching a triple...So I guess I'd be ticked off too if I lost money following Bob's advice... Fortunately I am not in that camp... Blaming Bob for free advice is just silly in my eyes...
On behalf of all readers, I want to congratulate Smile for being the only person who made money on the QQQ bulletin.
Also, let me point out some facts, so the readers don't get confused.
Bob sent out a special bulletin in Oct, 2000. His followers were 65% equities 35% cash at the time. Told us to put 30% to 50% of cash immediately into QQQ at $82 per share. (You didn't do that, you went against what he said and waited ) If you were very conservative he said to put in only 20-30%.
He said this was a short term opportunity trade of 2 to 4 months. (you didn't do this either, you held it for 17 years so far). Are you sure you follow his NOT FREE advice?
He said we could expect quick gains in excess of 20% in 2 to 4 months. We lost 70 % of our money in a little over 4 months. QQQ = $25.90 per share in March 2001. Thats not a typo, from ($82 down to $25.90) a 70 percent loss.
Again, congrats to SMILE for being the smartest person in the room. I would argue that you really didn't take any of his advice so he deserves NO credit from you.
Lastly Smile also said " I bought on 3/9/09 did you?
Im not sure why you included this as Bob never said anything on 3/9/09. He was very quiet that day. If I was a subscriber to his newsletter then, I had no money left to invest, because he already had told listeners to put their money into the stock market months prior to that opportunity. (like the QQQ event)_
Not sure why I ever listened to Bob, from now on I will listen to only you. You have magical insight, unicorn strength. Please start a newsletter and sign me up !
I am the Ghost of Bob
On behalf of all readers, I want to congratulate Smile for being the only person who made money on the QQQ bulletin.
Also, let me point out some facts, so the readers don't get confused.
Bob sent out a special bulletin in Oct, 2000. His followers were 65% equities 35% cash at the time. Told us to put 30% to 50% of cash immediately into QQQ at $82 per share. (You didn't do that, you went against what he said and waited ) If you were very conservative he said to put in only 20-30%.
He said this was a short term opportunity trade of 2 to 4 months. (you didn't do this either, you held it for 17 years so far). Are you sure you follow his NOT FREE advice?
He said we could expect quick gains in excess of 20% in 2 to 4 months. We lost 70 % of our money in a little over 4 months. QQQ = $25.90 per share in March 2001. Thats not a typo, from ($82 down to $25.90) a 70 percent loss.
Again, congrats to SMILE for being the smartest person in the room. I would argue that you really didn't take any of his advice so he deserves NO credit from you.
Lastly Smile also said " I bought on 3/9/09 did you?
Im not sure why you included this as Bob never said anything on 3/9/09. He was very quiet that day. If I was a subscriber to his newsletter then, I had no money left to invest, because he already had told listeners to put their money into the stock market months prior to that opportunity. (like the QQQ event)_
Not sure why I ever listened to Bob, from now on I will listen to only you. You have magical insight, unicorn strength. Please start a newsletter and sign me up !
I am the Ghost of Bob
Biker said...
Ghost of Bob:
I think you have a typo. Bob's followers were actually 35% equities, 65% cash in Oct 2000 (not 65/35). Just wanted to clarify this so readers don't get confused on how much cash was available for the QQQ trade. Those who followed Bob's QQQ advice exactly put a ton of money into those losing QQQ's.
I think you have a typo. Bob's followers were actually 35% equities, 65% cash in Oct 2000 (not 65/35). Just wanted to clarify this so readers don't get confused on how much cash was available for the QQQ trade. Those who followed Bob's QQQ advice exactly put a ton of money into those losing QQQ's.
d quinn said...
I used to enjoy Bob back in the old days when he was on Sat and Sundays.
He's a jerk and dishonest. Tell the audience your not on live. Tell the audience about Jr.
Take calls that are interesting and provide answers that give the audience real information.
I'm a CPA and owned business's in three states and have rented apartments and commercial for 50 years. He used to give great real estate and business advice. No more. A dishonest jerk.
He's a jerk and dishonest. Tell the audience your not on live. Tell the audience about Jr.
Take calls that are interesting and provide answers that give the audience real information.
I'm a CPA and owned business's in three states and have rented apartments and commercial for 50 years. He used to give great real estate and business advice. No more. A dishonest jerk.
burt said...
klashelle said...
Bob deserves some time off like all of us do,
What about the 15+ Sundays that were repeats?
What about the days Monday through Saturday?
Add to that he used to do Saturday and dropped that.(but still charges the same for Money Talk On Demand).
Bob deserves some time off like all of us do,
What about the 15+ Sundays that were repeats?
What about the days Monday through Saturday?
Add to that he used to do Saturday and dropped that.(but still charges the same for Money Talk On Demand).
September 3, 2017 at 2:06 PM
Suzy Pie said...
Honey - You are right on! I am seeking the truth and I don't like it when people intentionally try to deceive me. It is sad that Mr Brinker does not have the courage to tell me that his show is not live.
frankj said...That said, I would be really surprised if BB himself, did not hold Apple stock. He likes technology and innovative stuff. This I know from the many 3rd hour guests he's had some focused on Apple and some on Steve Jobs.
klashell: When most other talk shows state that the show is a repeat or a "best of," the fact that Bob Brinker does not, makes his lack of transparency stand out. When callers tell him they subscribe to HIS fixed income newsletter and he fails to mention that his son is the editor, he takes credit by omitting to set things straight.
BB once commented on politicians claiming to pay off the national debt as fantasy talk by modern day huff and puff politics (my paraphrase). While in his context true, but his premise of what politicians are stating is false. BB was just making a cheap shot.
The Kudlow show on economics, tax, health care, and stocks all pointing in the direction of vastly improved economy. Politics aside as there is no personal benefit within that discussion, but one must pay close attention to the power of politics as I believe this is the primary driver to the countries wealth. This CIC is making a difference. The best part is coming from a slow economy and dampening effect for over 8 years. Meaning, the economy has stored energy waiting to be released.
One economist greatly discounted fed reserve policy as basically rounding error to economy. The general economy is the 200# gorilla in the room. One big factor is the regulation industry comparing last administration to current. The act of attempting to control economy from DC. Currently, through Executive action some 800 regs done away with.
Our tax policy may be close to the worst within our competing international economies. Much good can come from improving tax structure. Much benefit, possible, for the average wage employee and retiree. Also, very popular opinion that we truly need to reform. BB chimed in on this once and claimed more fantasy of current snake oil politicians that fantasise going against lobbyist and DC deep state wishes. Yes, lobbyist will be loaded for bear to make fed income taxes complicated as there is big money to be made in financial and tax advice. Also, real estate will fight their tax privileges as bankers and agents can hype consuming public into over spending.
I don't think it is a good time to be 50% bonds.
The Kudlow show on economics, tax, health care, and stocks all pointing in the direction of vastly improved economy. Politics aside as there is no personal benefit within that discussion, but one must pay close attention to the power of politics as I believe this is the primary driver to the countries wealth. This CIC is making a difference. The best part is coming from a slow economy and dampening effect for over 8 years. Meaning, the economy has stored energy waiting to be released.
One economist greatly discounted fed reserve policy as basically rounding error to economy. The general economy is the 200# gorilla in the room. One big factor is the regulation industry comparing last administration to current. The act of attempting to control economy from DC. Currently, through Executive action some 800 regs done away with.
Our tax policy may be close to the worst within our competing international economies. Much good can come from improving tax structure. Much benefit, possible, for the average wage employee and retiree. Also, very popular opinion that we truly need to reform. BB chimed in on this once and claimed more fantasy of current snake oil politicians that fantasise going against lobbyist and DC deep state wishes. Yes, lobbyist will be loaded for bear to make fed income taxes complicated as there is big money to be made in financial and tax advice. Also, real estate will fight their tax privileges as bankers and agents can hype consuming public into over spending.
I don't think it is a good time to be 50% bonds.
MK said...
HB: Brinker is a very smart man
You lost me right there :-). Seriously, BB is a very clever marketing guy I'll grant that but he never struck me as very bright (nor even overly educated, financially). Otherwise he probably wouldn't make such whoppers on the air. He does know the basics & has been pretty dang lucky (due to his bull-market era and temperament). As Buffet says, brains aren't what deliver returns but emotional stability, consistent behavior, and honestly/credibility. Er, strike that last one!
BTW, here are the following market timing metrics from IQT. Within the hold zone for dividend investors, the selloff helped (Date; Dow Yld <2 .2="" ov="" uv="">2):
1-Sep-17; 2.30%, 17.2%, 56/40 = 1.40
15-Aug-17; 2.28%, 16.3%, 57/38 = 1.50
1-Aug-17; 2.28%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.63
15-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.5%, 58/36 = 1.61
1-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.62
You lost me right there :-). Seriously, BB is a very clever marketing guy I'll grant that but he never struck me as very bright (nor even overly educated, financially). Otherwise he probably wouldn't make such whoppers on the air. He does know the basics & has been pretty dang lucky (due to his bull-market era and temperament). As Buffet says, brains aren't what deliver returns but emotional stability, consistent behavior, and honestly/credibility. Er, strike that last one!
BTW, here are the following market timing metrics from IQT. Within the hold zone for dividend investors, the selloff helped (Date; Dow Yld <2 .2="" ov="" uv="">2):
1-Sep-17; 2.30%, 17.2%, 56/40 = 1.40
15-Aug-17; 2.28%, 16.3%, 57/38 = 1.50
1-Aug-17; 2.28%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.63
15-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.5%, 58/36 = 1.61
1-Jul-17; 2.32%, 15.0%, 57/35 = 1.62
Bob Wemer said...
BB used to use substitute guest hosts when he wasn't live. Can he not find substitute hosts any more?
Jerrod Clarkson said...
gabe said...
AAPL.......a record close! Bob would have a fit if I telephoned and said that I owned 9% of my portfolio in AAPl!
September 2, 2017 at 12:59 PM
gabe said...
Personally, I see September as being the worst month for equities. Perhaps, a 5% correction. Having cash on the sideline is a good thing!
If the correction mentioned above occurs..I would like to pick up the pieces.
September 5, 2017 at 8:02 AM
-----------------
Looking at $SPX during the month of September, historically it tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses.
20 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.9%
5 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.2%
Looking at gabe's AAPL during the month of September, historically it also tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses (or) minor gains.
20 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -1.0%
5 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is +0.1%
There are many, many current "negatives" to be considered when investing, but (prior to today) "the market" seemed to be ignoring most if not all of them. As a result, a buying frenzy has occurred and many sectors, industries and individual stocks are approaching "overbought status", in "overbought status" or in extreme "overbought status".
It would be foolish to predict how this month will perform. As THAT Bob often says, "we will know in the fullness of time."
JC
AAPL.......a record close! Bob would have a fit if I telephoned and said that I owned 9% of my portfolio in AAPl!
September 2, 2017 at 12:59 PM
gabe said...
Personally, I see September as being the worst month for equities. Perhaps, a 5% correction. Having cash on the sideline is a good thing!
If the correction mentioned above occurs..I would like to pick up the pieces.
September 5, 2017 at 8:02 AM
-----------------
Looking at $SPX during the month of September, historically it tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses.
20 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.9%
5 year history $SPX:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is -0.2%
Looking at gabe's AAPL during the month of September, historically it also tends to be a "so-so" month, i.e minor losses (or) minor gains.
20 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 50% of the time.
The month average G/L is -1.0%
5 year history AAPL:
The month closes higher that it begins 40% of the time.
The month average G/L is +0.1%
There are many, many current "negatives" to be considered when investing, but (prior to today) "the market" seemed to be ignoring most if not all of them. As a result, a buying frenzy has occurred and many sectors, industries and individual stocks are approaching "overbought status", in "overbought status" or in extreme "overbought status".
It would be foolish to predict how this month will perform. As THAT Bob often says, "we will know in the fullness of time."
JC
gabe said...
An up and down session so far. Market gyrations. Fed personnel change and proposed personnel changes anticipated. What an interesting market going forward. A bunch of legislative actions before end year? Who says we are not "living in interesting times"
Four horses going this weekend. The Stable holding its own!
Gabe
Four horses going this weekend. The Stable holding its own!
Gabe
Chris in ATL said...
I think the Sept 10 show is featuring Rerun Robert...
