STOCK MARKET....No changes in Brinker's dollar-cost-average advice or 50-50 asset allocation for those in retirement. Brinker commented to Bob from New Hampshire: "There is no stock market weakness right now. It's only down about 1% from all-time-highs."
DOLLAR COST AVERAGE, BUT ALWAYS BE WORRIED.... Caller Marie from Chicago wanted to know if her son should just dollar-cost-average into the market at these levels and not worry about it,
BB agreed with this exception: "I think you should always be worried.....I think if people are not worried at the world they are looking at today they are not paying attention.....Where we get on this is complacency. If we are just going to take the don't worry-be happy road, then we are complacent. And I think that is a dangerous state of mind to be in....DON'T GET COMPLACENT ABOUT MARKET... BB continued: For example, occasionally you will hear someone call the program and say, hi Bob, I'm retired and have 80 or 90% of my money in the stock market.....To me, that is the definition of complacency. And any time the market takes a hit, you have a chance to reevaluate your risk tolerance. Any time the market is under pressure, and there have been plenty of times it was under pressure in the last decade, that's for sure......Are you truly comfortable with what's going on in your portfolio at any given point. What happens when you see your portfolio take a hit. Does that bother you? Or do you say, I didn't know that stocks can go down in value.
LAST GOOD SIZE CORRECTION? BB continued: "We had a really good size correction, if you recall......dating back to 2015 - 16. Remember that correction. It started in mid-2015 and continued to February 10th 2016 when it bottomed out in the low to mid-1800s. Now we were fortunate enough there to trigger a buy signal - and outright buy-signal. Upgrading the market to attractive for purchase at that time....We were certainly grateful for that opportunity.....Such opportunities don't occur every day and this market has been on a run from the spring of 2009 - the likes of which has rarely been seen. So the idea that you are going to watch a market more than triple in price in 8 1/2 years, you certainly don't want to be complacent."
Honey EC: I have to research my old Marketimers. I do not recall a buy signal in 2016 - and even if there was, it was just as useless as horns on a brass monkey (or however that old saying goes). Brinker has not raised cash for ANY corrections since year 2000.... Yep, that's YEAR-2000. It's always ride it down - ride it back up, unless you happen to have some spare cash lying around the house.
IN EDIT: I have been informed by reliable sources that Brinker actually did issue a buy-signal in February 2016 - as he stated. But as usual, no cash raised for it in advance.GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ESTIMATE UPGRADED: Q2 estimate is now at 2.6 - new estimate is now at 2.8%....If that happens, the annual rate which is now 2.0% will go to 2.1% - which is "closer to the average GDP growth."
FEDERAL RESERVE....BB comments: The Jackson Hole confab is now in the record books. Monetary policy was not discussed.
LUMP SUM VS MONTHLY PAYOUT FOR MULTI-MILLIONAIRE.....Bob from New Hampshire - net worth $2.6 million - said he was "nearing Critical Mass" and wanted help choosing between a lump sum payout of $417,000 and $2272 monthly payout. BB advised him that if he took the lump sum, that would increase his net worth by about 20%, but that the monthly payout yield was about 6 1/2%. He seemed to encourage the caller to take the lump sum.
MULTI-MILLIONAIRE WORRIED ABOUT MARKET:....JayJay in New Haven, "Sitting on $2 Mill" net worth .....with asset allocation at 60-40 and worried about "market overheated." BB told him he recommends 50-50 for those in retirement, depending on risk tolerance.
BRINKER'S POLITICS....BB waxed on with his speculation about what was going to happen after Congress goes back to work on tax reform and a few other things. He made the usual point that they are "dysfunctional" and a few other insults that probably made him feel good, but may not have helped investors very much. You be the judge:
=>TAX REFORM, WHAT'S IN, WHAT'S OUT, WHAT'S UP, WHAT'S DOWN. dRahme's audio clip from opening monologue.
LOTTERY WINNER....BB had some fun advising Ms Wanczyk about how she should have acted after winning a lump sum payment of $480 million. Seems that she did it all wrong, according to BB she should have gone into hiding and not told anyone.......Massachusetts state lottery officials named Mavis L. Wanczyk of Chicopee as the winner of the $758.7 million Powerball Thursday in a press conference.
LOTTERY WINNER....BB had some fun advising Ms Wanczyk about how she should have acted after winning a lump sum payment of $480 million. Seems that she did it all wrong, according to BB she should have gone into hiding and not told anyone.......Massachusetts state lottery officials named Mavis L. Wanczyk of Chicopee as the winner of the $758.7 million Powerball Thursday in a press conference.
BRINKER'S CORRECTION FROM LAST WEEK.....BB very subtly corrected what he said last week about mortgage interest deduction being on the table for possible elimination, He only said it once with no explanation about why he said just the opposite last week. (Too embarrassed?) I did the research and proved that it wasn't. Did he read the facts here? Why so little concern for misleading (and in some cases) scaring, audience members?
HONEY'S QUIZ: WHO CAN GUESS BB'S FAVORITE NEW INSIDE JOKE WORD......BB uses this word several times on each program now when talking about political issues. Can anyone guess what it is? First person that guesses it, I will post here with their handle/name.
==> Two hours later: Biker said...OK, I'll bite. I noted the use of the term "Donnybrook" several times when describing the expected deliberations over tax reform. Not sure why that would be considered an inside joke, though.
August 27, 2017 at 7:17 PM
HONEY HERE: That didn't take long. That's the answer. Anyone who knows Brinker's sense of humor sees a big watermelon-eating grin on his face every time he announces some upcoming government issue will be a "donnybrook." His own inside joke against the President.
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST AUTHOR SUMMARY
OK, this interview was pretty lackluster in my opinion, so I am going to default to bullet points:
- · The Fed reacted quickly to the 2008 meltdown and the US began to recover before the UK and Europe.
- · Super Mario (Draghi) is doing the best he can, given the politics he has to deal with.
- · There is no deposit insurance in the Eurozone.
- · Of the Fed’s QE efforts, QE1 was the most successful, 2 and 3 were less successful.
- · The Fed has to be very careful when unwinding its balance sheet to avoid anything like the taper tantrum that occurred in 2013. Communication is important.
- · Our current $600 billion in deficit spending might be viewed as fiscal stimulus. The deficit should shrink in relation to the economy as the economy grows.
- · Spending $100 billion per year for the next 10 years on infrastructure: “won’t help that much,” the real benefit will be the productivity boost that results in, later.
- · He agreed with Bob that interest rates have been too low for too long.
- · US tax policy needs to be simplified to help small and medium sized businesses contribute to growth.
- · Our $20 trillion in national debt is a time bomb (my words) if interest rates begin to “normalize.” Each 1% rise in interest rates adds $200 billion to the interest owed.
Honey Here: Thanks Frankj....I agree that this guest did not add much value to Moneytalk today, but your summary is interesting, as always.
=> THE CANYONS OF WALL STREET NEXT WEEK: Thanks to dRahme, here is BB's report.
KKOB770
72 comments:
John from SF said:
I'm getting worried about too many live broadcasts from Bob Brinker, is he ill? Has he become an invalid?
Or maybe he's just banking up a bunch of live programs so he'll have a larger inventory of material for likely repeats.
John: I agree. Being live last week was out of character for him -- as I noted then -- and now here he is again.
I will have to check back through Honey's previous pages, but I'm guessing this has to be around week six of consecutive live shows.
Ya think this blog's constant shaming of him and his sleight-of-hand "live" shows (unannounced old shows re-wrapped as new) is getting to him?
The guy on now with the question of taking $400k +- cash out on pension - this one is a reapeat from just a couple weeks ago or so.
Filling in ....
bfc
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BFC....Are you sure? I don't recall this caller, but there have been several that are VERY similar. Almost like they are planted so Brinker can sell newsletters.
But he sure could be a plant....
Maybe he is Voice-Tracking
https://goo.gl/rPYFY2
It's unusual John, but all streaks must end sometime. With next weekend being Labor Day weekend I expect Brinker's 6 week streak of perfect attendance will end next Sunday. Six weeks was an incredible run for him.
With Cumulus in trouble, does that but the Monweytalk program in danger?
http://www.wnd.com/2017/08/network-carrying-imus-levin-savage-tanking/
Honeybee,
Unless I am mistaken I believe you meant to post 'about mortgage interest tax deductibility' not changing.....In reluctant defense of Bob I did read several stories quoting politicians who stated that mortgage interest and or real estate tax income deductions existence were potentially on the chopping block.
We will all not know, however, exactly what really happens until we are into the fullness of time.
Sorry , not here to debate nor convince anyone of anything.
My larger question was , did you really intend to write , 'facts about mortgage interest RATES not changing' ? The part I heard today was Bob addressing mortgage interest, income tax deductibility not mortgage interest rates . If I missed the mortgage interest rates discussion, then please, never mind. I will catch that in your courteously provided program summary.
.
Somewhat Anonymous... You are correct. I was entirely wrong.
I was doing three things at once and mistakenly added the word RATES.
I sincerely apologize - it was all, as they say, "my bad."
.
Somewhat Anonymous....I have deleted my posts so as not to embarrass you with my snarky request. Again...sorry.
A comment on the protected tax deductions vs. the ones on the chopping block:
Mortgage interest which looks like it will be protected, tends to go down as a deduction as people re-finance or pay off the loan over the years. Keeping it is good but over time, it declines as a deduction.
Property taxes (which may get the axe as a deduction), tend to creep up over the years so their importance would increase to homeowners.
BB had an interesting conversation about the Partisan Conflict Index.
I don’t recall him speaking about this in the past. Interesting nevertheless.
HONEY'S QUIZ: WHO CAN GUESS BB'S FAVORITE NEW INSIDE JOKE WORD?
OK, I'll bite. I noted the use of the term "Donnybrook" several times when describing the expected deliberations over tax reform. Not sure why that would be considered an inside joke, though.
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Biker.....BINGO! I should change that to an inside Brinker joke.
You just have to know - since you know his sense of humor - that Brinker has a big watermelon-eating grin on his face every time he labels some supposed upcoming government fiasco a "donnybrook."
Donny, Donald, Donald Trump....
I can think of some other past fiascos: Donny, Donald, Don Lane....
.
That's another BINGO.
Don Lane AKA Bob Brinker......Later changed to "mistertopes" in an effort to disguise Don Lane. To this day, many of the responses to mistertopes are addressed to Don. He has now made a real effort to cover up mistertopes, too - gave him a whole new profile.
BTW: He has no doubt used the word "donnybrook" before, but it was so seldom that I never noticed - and believe me, I notice most of what he says - that's why I get the big bucks. :)
OMG! Here we go again. The awesome BB continues to employ the time-honored Philly tactic of, "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, then baffle them with bullshirt."
Oh yeah, during Sunday's first hour (19:15 on the On Demand) Steve from Austin called to ask BB about the Fed and, "What will they do with the money?"
At that point, BB magically changed into David Copperfield and started tossing red herrings into the air with one hand, and then he pulled a few rabbits out of his behind with the other.
My point is, BB has NEVER given a lucid answer to the question of, "What will the Fed do during their drawdown?"
He continues to pontificate, speculate, obfuscate and denigrate the Fed governors but he never offers a rational expectation nor explanation about the process.
Therefore, I'm betting that he doesn't know a scintilla about it. He always references "the balance sheet", as if it's some magical device. HEADS UP! They teach balance sheets and cash flow statements during the first 3 weeks of Accounting 101 at your local community college. I guess BB wants to dazzle us with that knowledge.
Or maybe he feels compelled to baffle us with his comments about the "big fight" and the lopsided wager it was, and of course he took full advantage of it.
Once a gambler, always a gambler. Watch out for the sharks. Got any financial advice?
-Mr. Rheingold
I am guessing the reason Bob is live more often is stations threatened to cancel him. Or he needed more free ads for his letter
Spent much of yesterday with CNN watching the wrath of Harvey. Heartbreaking to see neighborhood after neighborhood submerged along with most of the freeways in the Houston area. Have in-laws living north of San Antonio who told us plenty of rain and downed trees but no loss of power, though much more rain due the next few days.
Listened to Moneytalk enough to hear the host wish the best to the folks of Texas "many of whom have been with us since Super Bowl Sunday 1986."
Thought it inappropriate for Mr B to tie-in the longevity of his program to the ongoing devastation in south Texas.
BB sounded less bullish and reminded listeners of stock market risks.
Kudlow guests said they were still bullish on market, but were watching the dollar index. They claimed the teck and financial stocks risky at this time and one should think about defensive stocks, instead. True defensive stock are up, but we know gov't will spend more. Infrastructure not as certain.
Lance Roberts from his Real Investment Report, continues to recommends to take some actions in rebalancing portfolio risks, take some profits, raise some cash, and sell your losers. Nothing dramatic, but button down for potential risks.
I did read smart money (institutional) are selling stocks and companies have slowed stock buy backs. I personally think tax reform will help the markets. Our tax situation is a joke and removing some of the nuttiness of that regulation would help. It depends on how crazy the politics go. Will DC political machinery purposely burn the country to empower politics. It looks like everything is on the table to inflict damage. Who you gonna blame? Of course easy to blame Donnybrook as the problem on both sides. The Right doesn't want to govern anyways. They like the comfy back seat and merely blame others.
HI Honeybee,
Thanks for this greatwebsite and all your effort that you put into it. I believe if not pointed out that in February 2016, Bob did give a buy signal on the market. Course he did not give a sell previously, but if you had cash as I did, you could take advantage of it.
Charlie B.
Wot goes on here?
PS: dad, I'm coming back from vacation, you can take the next 2 weeks off moneytalk.
.
Dear Mr. Brook Esq. That is one of the funniest comments ever.... LOL!!!
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Mr. Reingold.... I think I need to archive all of those descriptive words for use in the future - perfect!
Bob can't seem to win with some on this site.
I, like many here have benefited from listening to da Brink for the beginners investment advice early on 30+ years ago.
Recently for me his take on pension annuity v lump sum gave me an additional avenue of analysis to help in this decision process - simplistic but practical methodology.
I am steering the younger generation of those in my life to Brinker's program for the investment 101 advice not the newsletter except for maybe the free sample.
I find it funny that some here who criticize Brinker also maybe listen intently for his buy the dip signals for new cash and past MOABOs. Nothing wrong with the critics but would suggest that those critics who also benefit from the free radio program also mention this side too just out of a sense of fair and balanced reporting.
BTW I did buy some qqq's on Bob's advice back in 2000 but I waited and averaged in at better lower prices. I still own about 340 shares with a 2 bagger return approaching a triple.
I also unfortunately bought T but fortunately when they split out the shares I chose what eventually became comcast shares so that turned out well too. Heading for a 3 bagger there too.
I also got caught up on first hand funds but funneled all that money into tefqx which is making bank for me also.
So I guess I'd be ticked off too if I lost money following Bob's advice. Fortunately I am not in that camp which goes back to Bob's initial free advice which was:
the person staring back at you in the mirror is the best person to manage your money. What ever free advice I followed I always recognized the choice to follow that advice was mine. Blaming Bob for free advice is just silly in my eyes, but I admit I might feel different if I lost money on the advice.
Again nothing wrong with pointing out Bob's blemishes it helps forewarn those not familiar with Bob's complete history - as long as we recognize the choice to follow the free advice (usually worth the price you paid for it) is the person starring back at you in the mirror.
smile
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Smile.....I sure hope that Brinker reads your post. It will make him very happy.
MOF, I would have no trouble believing that he wrote it. Sounds just like him.
I'm sure knowing that will make your day.
HB, FTR, I just got a little tired of the nit-picking, but again I understand the criticism.
You know that post was from me, not Bob from the following:
I was kind of ticked at da Brink after the 1987 crash when Bob professing to be this great market timer rode the crash down without a peep. I told the story of my call to him so won't repeat the entire off air conversation which at the time of the call I thought was on air (Bob said "I got caught") an honest response, but shady since he responded to my call off-air. I stopped listening to Bob based on this for a few years. Not so much as blaming Brink for missing the obvious crash call and professing to be able to make these calls but for the shady way he took the call off-air, which I believe is his MO of covering bad calls. So again the work being done here is good pointing to the blemishes so others can learn and not fall for the trap. The reason I stopped listening for a spell was I felt I gleaned all I needed and was frankly bored by the show and repetitive call ins.
I listen now to opening monologue live only and a couple of the calls before turning off or as long as it takes me to do 7 miles and burn 175 calories on my recumbent exercise bike in the airconditioned comfort of my home.
FAB as Fox news professes is how I like to play it. You know you can always count on me for the truth LOL no political spin at all. Hope that wasn't too liberal for ya rotflol. Oh the good political conversations we used to have on the suite. Not longing for them but just a memory of a simpler time LOL.
Riding this current wave is going to be interesting to see if all that I have learned gets me safely out at the appropriate time.
smile
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Well, Smile...I have made it clear that this blog is for Brinker fans as well as Brinker critics. Both have equal access to make comments. Surely, you are aware of that by now.
And unless someone sends really personal and nasty insults of Brinker, I will always publish them.
Most of us have mixed feelings about Brinker. I admire how he has taught the basics of investing - he taught me - and I admire his entertainment value. Often one has to be really "tuned in" to catch his dry sense of humor.
But, the big one - I will always be his number one critic when I hear him spin, mislead, fib or disemble - like he did yesterday about the mortgage deductibility. Only readers of this blog will know that he said just the opposite last week.
If he was a totally honest man, he would have explained that he was wrong last week and he would have apologized for misleading the audience.
Instead, he just slipped it in there and moved on. You can hear it on dRahme's audio clip.
Honeybee,
From a historical perspective, (when we make reference to some of THAT Bob's bad calls such as QQQ), would it be appropriate to refer to those as donnybrokes?
JC
Yup, on the same page with shady Bob hiding whatever and same page on thanks for investment basics101 and tidbits of knowledge along the way e.g., alternative analysis of pension v annuity.
I truly understand and appreciate the critics and viewing all sides of Bob good bad and the ugly.
HB said "I will always be his number one critic when I hear him spin, mislead, fib or disemble"
Do you do this with politicians and current Potus or is this standard just for Bob? LOL just kidding. Rhetorical.
smile
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JC... LOL! I think that sounds very appropriate. And I think he was still posting at Silicon Investor as Don Lane when he made that call - or very close to it.
Smile: You were spot on your earlier post re: BB!
The financial literature I have perused suggests that this week will be a volatile one.
An important jobs report on Friday.
Gabe
Smile said "I find it funny that some here who criticize Brinker also maybe listen intently for his buy the dip signals for new cash and past MOABOs. "
What past MOABOs are you talking about? MOABO was March 9, 2009. Anyone who listened intently to him that day heard silence because he said nothing.
People paid money to him on the promise that his (magical) timing models and (magical) indicators would alert him when the Mother of all buying opportunities was happening, a once in a generation moment when total panic sets in and everybody gives up on stocks and sells, and just then Bobs indicators start ringing (bells ?) (red blinking lights ?) and his trusting followers would step in and become rich.
That didn't happen.
Sadly, he cried wolf about bottoms / near bottoms so many times before March 9, 2009 his trusting followers already had all of their money in the market, thus would not have been able to take advantage the magic.
I am the ghost of bob ( and i think smile might be "the bob" )
Do-It-Yourself guide to a pension lump sum vs. monthly payments.
1. What are the monthly payments, what is the lump sum?
2. Are the monthly payments indexed for inflation? The usual answer is no unless you are a public employee then they might be.
3. Multiply the monthly payment by 12 and divide the result by the offered lump sum.
4. Compare this amount to a long term market return. If 7% or less, then beware of the monthly payments, esp. if they're not indexed to inflation.
5. What is your take on the organization's ability to actually make the monthly payments far into the future?
6. Do you NEED the money, now, that the monthly payments would provide?
7. What is your expected longevity?
8. The monthly payments will count as ordinary income, will they force you into a higher tax bracket?
9. What is your net worth, not counting your primary residence? The lump sum represents what percentage of your net worth? (A percentage larger than 20% argues for taking the lump sum.)
10. Are you interested in your investment assets someday becoming a legacy for children/grandchildren?
Oh yes, smile's essay of Aug 28, 8:58 invoked every catch-phrase, buzz-word and cutesy-thing that Brinker has ever uttered. Must've been written by BB's speech writer, whomever that is.
Oh well, we will know in the fullness of time. So set your watch and hold your breath.
Larry, North Truro MA
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Ghost of Bob....Every word you wrote is right on target!!!
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Larry, North Truro MA....Correct!
Did you know that Brinker's daughter-in-law is a "college-edumacated" linguist?
Gabe, spot on re: your spot on!
Frankj, that was a good summary of pension annuity v lump sum decision. I would add if one takes the lump sum and are at 65 you are only 5 years away from having to pull RMD's on the added pretax portion of the IRA. Also for most pension lump sum amounts they are typically low balling the lump sum the exception probably are those big govmnt pensions. Also if health is good you stand a good chance of outliving the lump sum payment and pulling more out using the annuity. Roll of the dice.
GoB you ain't Bob, neither am I and you missed the point of my prose. It sure wasn't Moabo's. Try and pick another nit. I bought on 3/9/09 did you? I said thanks to the guy staring back at me in the mirror.
smile
BTW, this income tax overhaul thing. Maybe I have more experience with communicating with less well off? My personality has traits that allow these folks comfort with conversation and I do move the bar to interesting talk. Lots of contacts on that front. If will say, that my experience has taught me the inner workings of underground economy of the poor. The special class of poor that works hard and are ingenious to find opportunities to maximizing earnings with minimal work/career.
I do believe a large section of population would work and enjoy working, for example, to pan for gold or betting for wealth. This is not a bad thing of course, but I've come to realize our income tax system has a fatal flaw. We are punishing the achievers and swaying motivation to become "poor". We promote victimhood and reliance on government agency. This has horrible morality concerns.
I've read blogs dedicated to the happiness zone calculations for minimal income vs personal freedom. To that extent, my guess the consumption tax would cure a portion of this.
Also, a natural way for citizens to save within a turn down. True that gov't will suffer inflows during such times, but they are big deficit spenders, right? We shouldn't be concerned with all government agencies at the maximum fill rates. In a down turn government operations are a drag other than their expenditures. But cost of government in general is a drag on the economy and their expenditures are economically less efficient.
However, money spent on infrastructure, R&D, less or more efficient regulations, and working within commerce/financial markets to make them more efficient is truly a long term wealth builder for nation. Often, our government chooses or falsely thinks their position is to oppose open markets, fair trade, and business. Sad fact.
Oh, I'm Forrest or Trees
Listening to some of those pension annuity v lump sum questions Bob fields on occasion I wish that he would ask the caller what field/profession they are in because the amounts given for the lump sum alternative appear to be much higher than what I am seeing for private industry. I am thinking that those high pension amounts are for government type workers who have lucked into pot of gold benefits at tax payer expense.
The following article although written 5 years ago supports my view that at least for private industry pensions the manipulation of interest rate and life expectancy tends to low ball the lump sum payout amount.
Six Ways Pension Annuities Almost Always Beat a Lump Sum
excerpt from the article:
4-Lump sum formulas aren't favorable. Pension plan sponsors calculate lump sums using longevity and interest-rate factors, aiming to match the amount that a pensioner would need to invest to match annuitized payments. In that sense, the choice between lump sum and annuity should be neutral, producing the same result over time.
But in fact, most people will come out ahead with an annuitized pension.
A key reason is a revision in lump sum calculations mandated under the PPA. The change—which was sought by plan sponsors—changed the benchmark interest rate used to calculate lump sums. They argued that lump sum payments—which move inverse to interest rates-- were being inflated artificially by ultra-low, 30-year Treasury rates. The PPA replaced the Treasury rate with a higher composite corporate bond rate that has been phased in fully as of this year. The corporate rate is a little over 100 basis points higher than the Treasury rate.
“All other things being equal, it means a lower lump sum,” says Alan Glickstein, a senior consultant and pensions expert at Towers Watson. “For someone close to retirement age, it works out roughly to a 10 percent change in value for every one percentage difference in interest rates.”
smile
A very nice reversal!
Gabe
HONEY: I sent in a post late late night (EDT). I don't even remember what it was, nothing important as usual.
Did it get lost?
.
Bluce...It must have gotten lost...Please send it again.
Ahhh...the 3 day float...we hardly knew ye...
T+3 is reduced to T+2 effective September 5, 2017:
SEC Adopts T+2 Settlement Cycle for Securities Transactions
https://goo.gl/nWbypG
JC
PS: Just wondering - Has Mister Topes ever mentioned anything about this on the "Bob's Alive" shows?
I think I understand the blog host's frustrations. On the Sunday show, Mr. Brinker implied that there was some notorious long-running "correction" beginning in 2015 that he called at the bottom in Feb 2016.
Yes, he called a bottom, but at the time he characterized it as a Fed. Vice Chair Stanley Fisher dumbass moment, when Fisher wistfully hoped for 4 rate hikes within the year while speaking at some unnecessary news conference. The stock market over-reacted for about 20 trading days as panic selling set in.
And Mr. Brinker hawked that gaff in those terms for over a year on the radio and in the newsletter, laying blame for the bumpy ride all over Stanley's new Adidas bowling shoes(Euros like Adidas, Yanks like Nikes.)
But now... all of a sudden it was a great correction that he was all over like a mink coat on Marilyn Monroe, and he deftly snatched the family jewels from extinction with his Einstein genius call at the bottom in Feb.
Boy, that guy loves to rewrite history and embellish it at the same time.
-Mr. Mark Furriers, Rodeo Drive
I got out of financials yesterday. This sector really takes a hit upon downturn. I'm picking up that the general consensus of financial guys, that a near term -10% downturn should be expected, but the general market is healthy. The down turn would be healthy. Sure, many scenario's possible, just this appears to be most probable. Most will ride it out and a few will raise some cash and make portfolio adjustments.
I'm thinking Walmart does well in economic slow downs? They have the best chance to undermine Amazon growth. The media is always buzzing of the Amazon juggernaut changing everything i.e. Whole foods already is dropping prices. The examples were pathetic. The only reason Amazon likes Whole Foods is their marketing skill to sell very expense food. I think the hype on unhealthy food supply is way overblown. It doesn't cause bad health, making bad diet choices is the problem. I've noticed Amazon needs high markup sales. I don't think they can compete with Walmart on price alone. Investors will fade away from Amazon if earnings can't support mail order merchandising. Yesterday, It cost me $6 to make a Amazon return. I netted $5. The German grocery chains will shake up the market more than Amazon. Aldi, is my favorite but, again Walmart right there.
I like William Danoff's large cap Contra fund. But if one reads Forbes article on the real cost of owning mutual funds, I think I will dump and just invest in S&P 500 index. The turnover costs in Contra appear very suspicious 41%. I have noticed when the fund has a good run the turnover rate goes high. The investor is missing information as financial industry has tons of underhanded practices, that don't show up in the gross expense ratio. This is what Bogle refers to. I guess Vanguard is investor owned. That is proof enough for me that they are working within investors best interests.
Tax reform looks highly likely and my guess stocks will do good even financials. I needed to get out of mutual funds anyways, so not a mistake to sell at this time. If the economy can achieve 3% growth (very possible) the national debt will not be such a down force. This is the best scenario. Nkorea is appearing more like annoyance. If Trump ratings increase, we could be in for a good ride indeed. Still better to experience a short 10% downturn to temper investor spirit.
Watching Trump handle media on Harvey. Perfect. Refer back to Bush in which he thought best to take an aerial view instead of exploiting the usual politics and messing up relief efforts. Wow, Bush was clueless on how the media would judge/spin. Good to preempt media efforts.
.
OOPS....This is sure looking better than Brinker projected. From Forbes:
US revised second-quarter GDP up 3.0% vs 2.7% rise expected
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, notching its quickest pace in more than two years.
There are signs that the momentum was sustained at the start of the third quarter.
Gross domestic product increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said
Published 2 Hours Ago | Updated 44 Mins Ago
AAPL........a record performance!
Gabe
The big number tomorrow!
Gabe
Make the number...Friday!
Gabe
Gabe, what number are you referring to?
Bob (not That Bob)
The Jobs Number.
Gabe
Attn: frankj Nailed it with your 10 commandments of pension lump sum vs. monthly payments wisdom. (posted August 28, 2017 at 4:05 PM)
Attn: smile Great point-counter-point post and link to “Six Ways Pension Annuities Almost Always Beat a Lump Sum”. (posted August 29, 2017 at 10:39 AM)
Attn: Gawd Kinda quiet lately, everything O.K. with ya?
Isn’t Honey’s site awesome! Civil and educational – where the great financial literate folks congregate.
8:56a
UPDATED Sandra Bullock and Rachael Ray each give $1 million to Harvey relief — and other celebs are stepping up...No comment yet from BB.
Gabe I'm worried about you. Are you ok?
I applaud all who have donated to Harvey relief.
That said, what I find unsettling is that when these tragedies occur, shortly thereafter we always have a "running list" noting the "Highest Givers" and how much they have donated. Do those people really need more press coverage? I doubt it.
And, while many fans (among others) may seem surprised by the huge amounts the "High Givers" donate, please keep in mind that a million bucks (or more) is a pittance for most of them.
Take the case of "Joe down the street" who works 3 jobs to support his family and barely scrapes by. He donates 25 bucks to Harvey relief. Who is donating more, one of the "Hollywood Elite" or "Joe"? I say Joe is donating more.
Agree or Disagree?
JC
AAPL continues its record run!
Gabe
I sure am glad as I have a bunch of it with a very large profit in it.
Ya, I get turned off from the politics and Hollywood antics to afford oneself popularity upon national tragedy. I was listening to a good take on some hasbeen that made a ludicrous comment on Betsy Devost, claiming that she did more damage to Texas schools than hurricane Harvey. The uptake was that often hasbeens will go political outrageous to gain notoriety. It's the old adage that any press is good even bad press. How many actors attempt this feat. I do like the mentioned actors, but reminds me of Oprah investment method to gain popularity.
What is the best stock-to-bond ratio? Wow, BB may be out to lunch on this one, where he recommends retirees should be 50:50. Anyone familiar with Cassaday study? It shook up financial advisors. This guy gleaned 85 years of history to determine the best ratio. Come to find out their is no security in bonds if you need the money. Because, on average life expectancy is increasing and retirement funds on average decreasing the biggest threat of retirement is running out of $$. Cassaday determined the safest ratio was 15% bonds and 2.5% cash. They have tested his advice over time and it appears to do very well 9.5% roi. So, for retirees the safest bet if needing money (who doesn't want money? That's why it is called money)
Retiree portfolio:
Stocks 80%- U.S.,foreign,reits, and commodities. Anyone know a index that does this?
Bonds 17%
Cash 3%
The advice said not to be wooden on your investments. Meaning to keep up with economy and bias your investments somewhat to protect or invest upon perceived growing threat of change to bull or bear markets. No big changes and just "hold on to gunwale of kayak in rough water". Markets that sink will be elastic and bounce back unless government and politics enter in to help us.
I just calculated my rearrangement of financials (not done) and have 12% bonds. I think I will double that through Wellesley fund side of bonds 70%. Also, I like 6% cash to start with and will let that naturally drop from required spending. I'm thinking the rest should be as the above recommendation. Might take a variety of indexes or funds?
Sold off at the end but still did fairly well!
Gabe
Any chum with that FREE LUNCH?
Timeless
I see Buffet is 20% cash. He claims to haven't found good investments. Stocks are not a good buy right now and bonds even worse. He still likes Apple and will invest in stock market as equities have a much higher ROI. He prefers 4% cash. Maybe he was all right with 20% cash in the recent past?
AAPL.......a record close! Bob would have a fit if I telephoned and said that I owned 9% of my portfolio in AAPl!
Gabe
Gabe, he would not like it. My AAPL is 7.53% of my portfolio. He wouldn't like that either. In fact I am close to 80% in stocks and I am 77 years old, he really would not like that. I have really done quite well the past few years by being heavily in equities. I have a lot of unrealized capital gains so I find it hard to sell and pay all of those taxes and my Social Security Medicare premium and my wife's would increase also. Sure wish the prospective new tax changes would do away with capital gain taxes.
Jester, no free lunch here. It was taken from "Bonds for Dummies" by Russell Wild. The book reviews high on Amazon. The authors take on safety was to include running out of money with the losing money on markets. That stock markets will recover as the value shoppers invest. The commodities as usual the standard for doomsday scenario protection. I've never cared for the investment, but financial planners always want a small portion too. I think the Cassaday study was within financial planning trade. It was for internal consumption. 50% bonds at this time of really poor value and good value stocks would be a mistake IMHO. Funny, that institutions even are investing in horrible returns of income market. That spread compared to stocks is the biggest reason the Bull market will continue. The 08/09 turndown has really tempered exuberance with marketplace even though the recovery was good. Lots of money on sidelines waiting for value. Might be expensive wait. Coming off 8yrs of corrosive government actions (some good stuff though) and experiencing such a pro grow Executive will have a big impact. Things can go haywire, but seeking low returns for safety may not be a wise investment nowadays.
I was originally working on the BB advice to achieve 50% Bonds investment as I'm in retirement. I probably should have more bonds, but 20% now the goal. So far, it was a mistake to get out of financials, but probably good to shift away from managed fund to index? Still looking for something to average/step up into.
MikeE.....Well, I am in a similar predicament! But then I suspect others would not mind being at this place. In a way, I should be grateful given the fact that I can hedge my position with respect to taxes with a stable of horses.
Gabe
I don't have that luxury so I will just hang in there and leave it to my children, I guess. It is a nice position to be in like you said though.
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