STOCK MARKET Bob Brinker quotes today: "For someone who is near retirement, I'd be near the 50 to 60% in the stock market at this time." "Those who have used index funds over the years, have benefited great because they are very efficient."
BOB BRINKER'S STOCK MARKET VIEWS TODAY.....BB said: "Remember, my views are subject to change and they have changed in the past. But for a long time, we have taken a fully invested position for many, many years in the stock market. And we have maintained that position with the knowledge that we have the option of making a change in our stock market allocation if we believe it is necessary to do so. We certainly did that back in January of 2000, and we certainly can do it again. But we are not going to do it in a market that has favorable characteristics - and we've had favorable characteristics in the market especially since 2009 where we have seen the market more than triple during that time."
Honey EC: It seems incredible that Brinker hearkens back SEVENTEEN years to find a time when he actually raised cash from the market (65%). The only other time that he ever raised cash was in 1988-89 and that was a disaster because he missed out on huuge gains before getting his subscribers fully invested again. And that's it folks. He has never again raised case. Marketimer just rode that 2008 bear down until it bottomed 57% lower. It took a few years to recover losses - beginning in 2009.
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS VEU AND VEA....BB said: "There is a slight difference between them.....we matched that up with the holding in the model portfolios. If you take a look at the underlying fund in portfolios I, II and III (Vanguard FTSE ll-World, VFWIX), and the active/passive, you will find that that international fund now matches up with the VEU recommendation on page 7 in the individual issues section identically now. The difference between that and VEA.....is a developed ex-North America Fund following the FTSE Index....Whereas VEU is an all world ex-US.,,,,The most obvious difference is that if you X-out North America, you X-out Mexico and Canada....along with the United States....Also if you're using developed countries, you're not using non-developed countries.....The All-World X-US would include Mexico and Canada and all the other country markets.....It's not a dramatic difference, but it is a difference."
VTI COMPARED TO TOTAL STOCK MARKET INDEX.... BB said: "If you take the total stock market index no-load fund and compare it to VTI, you will see that the performance is close to identical....The major difference is that the exchange-traded-fund (ETF) is traded during the day, whereas the no-load fund is priced at the close and that's the only time it is priced."
WHAT IS SHORT SELLING....BB said: "For the uninitiated on short-selling, what happens you sell a stock short because you think it is going to go down in price, and you will be able to buy it back at a lower price and make the difference. If you sell a stock short at $20 and you buy it back (which is called covering the short) at $10, then you just made $10 a share - or 50% on your money.....But in order to sell it short, you have to borrow the stock....."
INTEREST RATES....BB expects higher rates going forward and is maintaining low duration bond funds in Marketimer......FOMC did not change interest rates or Fed policies this week.
MARKETIMER BOND FUND INVESTMENTS... BB said: "If you check the investment letter, you will see this - what we've done on the bond side of the portfolio, we have managed our interest rate risk by keeping our durations down, The bond portfolio has done very well without taking interest rat risk....Our average duration in our bond fund is close to the 1 1/2 year area....Why take that interest rate risk when you can sidestep a large part of that by keeping durations down and by having some credit risk in the portfolio. And the credit risk has worked out extremely well for us in the portfolios."
Honey EC: Here are Brinker's Marketimer bond funds that he explained so extensively: (DLSNX, MWCRX, OSTIX)
INFLATION....BB comments: "...inflation is very, very low."
FOOTBALL IS GOING AWAY, HE SEZ.... Brinker called football a "game of insanity," and said that "it is going away." In essence, he recommended now as a good time to sell any football teams you own - while you can still make some money. Here is a Forbes article published yesterday: "The Study that Could Kill Football"
NO POLITICS, HE SEZ.... Brinker said: "Here on Moneytalk, we do not have anybody's talking points - Democrat or Republican."
Honey EC: That was Brinker's laugher of the day!
FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY:
Here is the third hour guest summary: " ."
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KKOB770
36 comments:
WNTK.com is working great today.
Sorry, WNTK is now choppy again, like last week.
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So far, I am having good luck with 710KNUS.
wow, Bob is hitting a number or buttons today. From Clown show to Concussion. Interesting!
smile
Me too HoneyB.
Ya, the clown name calling, wonder who he is talking about? Funny, latter he mentioned the non inflation adjusted GNP is 3.6%. Round that figure and your in clown country. So he appears to be inflating clown talk to agitate partisan political rhetoric.
When he spouts the end of football per safety, he is hurting many poor athletes chances for success. One must remember how popular and beloved the game is and temper the medical reports as with tobacco the money invested to "discover" the harm is more than all the rest of human activity. I do believe once this hatred and targeting of hate gets rolling within the popular climbing activist they will eventually kill the freedom. You are to stupid to have freedom and must be regulated to safety. Thank goodness government can take our freedom away and keep us safe.
I have played football and will rate ice skating as dangerous to head trauma. Same with bicycle riding. Even jogging or walking is rated the number one stat for death per mile. Pools kill more kids then all the baby seats could possibly save. Speed kills more than inflation devices save. Pot and texting kills a multitude more than alcohol. Antidepressants and antipsychotics degrade more lives, create more loss of quality of life, and lesson lifespan as compared to much less dangerous tobacco. Same for tobacco ability to keep weight off and minimize health cost within the most expensive end of life expenditures. It has been proven that tobacco over all will shorten life, but improve quality of life if keep in moderation. Same for alcohol and maybe pot.
I have seen many quit smoking only to take pharmaceutical antidepressants and in doing so they get fat and lethargic. Often describes as incredibly happy or depressed. The happy part is short lived. Anti psychotics described at best as a feel no emotion experience, but once on the stuff for a year you hooked for life as most could not endure the withdrawal pain and again the feel nothing goes away more often than the painful reformulation requirements of new and more powerful chemical prescriptions. This is the stuff we read of of shooters off meds can rage. Note, the public is thinking the meds if taken prevent this, and this is true, but one must know the meds have chemically set this up at a incredibly cost to health care. I say give these people a six pack, maybe some pot, and smoke.
Because I like to listen to internet radio and am also many times forced to do so, I must deal with the drastically varying sound volume levels. Those levels would be the host vs callers vs commercials vs music, etc. I have purchased 3 different internet radios and returned all 3 since none of them did a thing to level the volume spikes and dips. Has anyone here found a device or an internet radio that auto compensates for volume changes without the listener repeatedly having to manually intervene ?
Thanks!
You would achieve above average return on investments if doing nothing other than the biggest Vanguard ETFs. Make sure they are ETFs and know you will do very well. One notch above that is to do invest in stocks. Keep it simple and pick a few winners often referred by the younger as good stuff. Don't invest in budding companies, just the established companies that can do much more. Keep the majority of money in index funds, but don't fear individual stock wealth.
I head the U.S. is rated #1 attractant destination for the most talented to migrate to and go to vaulted schools. This is the dream for international youth to achieve maximum wealth per U.S, capitalistic economy that awards achievers, producers, and winners. Other countries are polluted with the ever so popular "share the wealth toxicity" that allures most voting public to easy money solutions. What this means is the high tech brain powered economies within the U.S. do better.
(From previous thread)
frankj said...
Mad as Hell: I puzzled over the $70 million figure. The short article in the WSJ did not elaborate on how it was spent referring to it only as a cost. I do not think that the $70MM or any part of it went into people's accounts though.
Frank - yes, you are correct sir! It was operating / administration costs.
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I agree... the guest is a no show and BB can't be honest with us.
Bob's caller at 3:35 who wants to leave California. Hey Bob, don't recommend Washington State to any Californians. There are enough here already. Caller said he's leaning toward TX or ID. My guess is those states can do without Californians too.
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Understand your point exactly, Frankj.
But as a Californian, I'm hoping that the new President will get some immigration laws enforced in California, and clear out enough illegal border jumpers, to make life better for us - AND save us a boatload of money supporting them.
Rant over....
I think I just heard Bob tell a call to pat himself on the butt, then he said back. Did anyone else catch this?
The White Sox defeated the Cleveland I's today and not the Cubs who today beat Milwaukee.
In a previous series the Cubs won 3 of 4 over the Sox . When it come to sports, Bob really oughta stick to finances and investing......As far as I can tell, Bob has had no real grasp of major league sports rivalries and such for over 2 decades now.
Yosemite Sam set,
Hey honeybee, the NEW president might be the OLD president before the next election. What then?
Oh, Big Shimatta. Japanese word for 'oops.' Did not intend to insult our HB.
Here is the third hour guest summary: " ."
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FrankJ....I will be sure and add your summary when I get ready to publish today.
You may qualify for a bonus check today. LOL!
Mr B's Bond Fund Strategy:
"Keeping durations down...credit risk has worked out extremely well for us"
I've commented before on the underperformance of two funds in his portfolio. Honey knows when the switch to low duration began, but over the last three years Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX) has still gained more than DLSNX and MWCRX. Only OSTIX comes out ahead thanks to its huge junk allocation. 83% of holdings rated BB or lower with another 16% not rated. That's right, leaving all of 0.56% at BBB.
MWCRX expense ratio 1.05%!
Info from Morningstar.com
As someone who enjoys this blog, yet has only make a couple of online contributions to date; I feel compelled to chime in to PM's quiry:
YES, Bob said "BUTT" to caller.
Birdbrain: Ha, yes. I believe Bobby jumped on the "Taper Tantrum" wagon in 2013 and is still on it.
Right. Great move.
Unless drawing income, most people hold bonds as a counterweight to stocks. Yet junk bonds often follow stock prices to some degree, so holding a JB fund in this circumstance seems pointless.
But, I don't know -- Bobby has the financial sheepskin. I'm just a dumb toolmaker.
John from SF said:
Response to Dr. D regarding internet radio volume:
I've noticed the same thing about inconsistent volume levels on internet radio. I have some background in radio and while the uneven volume levels is due to shortcomings in automation and the absence of adequate manual intervention at the "internet station" I don't know of any internet radio device that could automatically compensate for the sound level volume differences that I have heard without screwing other things up. For example such an automated mechanism would not allow any sound to fade away. In broadcast terms it is the absence of a real "board operator" that causes these things, the internet stations don't even care enough to balance their source sound levels ahead of time. Some internet stations do seem worse then others in this regard.
I wonder if I would get on the air if I said, "Bob I subscribed to your newsletter for two years and lost thousands. You said own no more than 4% of anyone one stock so I sold some Berkshire, lost out. You said Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX) was headed down, so sold that, another loss, then you had me buy a Fidelity bond fund lost more on that. Lost a little more on a Doubletree bond fund you recommended. I cancelled my subscription and stopped losing. " I have reached critical mass sometime ago, no thanks to Bob.
AAPL earning report tomorrow at the close hopefully will energize the Nasdaq and Russell to move in a positive manner . Of course, earnings will have to meet or beat estimates.
Two horses going today. The other two ran Sat. with a very poor showing. I have spoken to may partner -trainer to see whether moving into Arabian horse, mules, and possibly greyhounds might offer the stable more diversification. However, these require different modes of training and tend to require a different expertise which he does bot have, Perhaps bring an additional trainer who specializes in these will help but is an added expense. Sometimes, one can't win!
Gabe
Unfortunately no winners at the racetrack. However, AAPL beat estimates both on the bottom and top line. GREAT!
Bought Apple in the double digits.....It's in the triple digits! Just a wonderful Company.
Gabe
I'm really impressed with your writing skills as
well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it's rare to see a great blog like this one nowadays.
Need some advice from some of the regulars.
I was interested in actually calling the show. (When he is live of course.) I wanted to ask Bob about my situation (lump sum vs. monthly payouts). I have never called the show.
Does anyone have any tips on getting through and on the air?
SHould you call before the hour? (I notice some people get on to comment on a previous call, so it seems they process calls right away.)
Is there something to say, or not to say, to the screner/producer in order to make it through to bob? (I would imagine they don't take every call.)
Any advice?
Doodle
Dow 22K Yikes! AAPL up today.
Gabe
Doodle: Tips on how to get on the air, based on stuff people tell Bob when they DO get on the air.
First of all, don't say, "Thanks for taking my call." The whole radio audience world is sick of hearing people say this.
When the call screener answers, he'll ask what your question is. Tell him or her in a sentence or two. Don't try and describe your whole situation, the call screener doesn't care. Then casually add that 1) you are a subscriber, 2) you have listened since ________ (the late '80s or early 90's is good, but it has to fit with your age.
If you are fortunate enough to talk to Bob, repeat items 1) and 2) and remember to say that thanks to you, Bob, I am at (or nearing) critical mass.
Lump sum vs. monthly payments? The regulars here could probably answer that fairly easily.
Doodle,
I don't know if any of us regulars here ever spoke with Bob. We get an occasional visitor here that said they got lucky and asked Bob a certain question that we all heard while listening. frankj pretty much covered it. I would add that your kind of question has a better chance because the answer varies from person to person. Bob may need more details than you can tell the screener about. If you ask just a general question about the market you probably won't get chosen. I reached the screener twice but never got through to Bob. The last time was a couple of years ago when I wanted to ask why long-term bonds were doing well. This was at a time when Bob predicted they would NOT do well, so I guess he didn't want to talk about it. He told the screener to tell me the bonds were doing well because of high demand. Well Duh! Anything goes up in value because of high demand. My question was about why they going up when the Fed plans to normalize rates.
Doodle: I would DCA into the equity market and lump sum into bonds.
Gabe
My experience on MoneyTalk. When communism melted down in eastern Europe and funds were setting up to invest there, I called when Bill Flanagan was hosting and asked if it would be a good place to invest. He said, "do you think you're the first one to think of this?"
Some years later I told the screener my question was about whether a convertible bond fund was a good investment for income. I was on hold a little while and the screener came back and said, "Bob says it depends what the holdings in the fund are." (Well, that is true.)
Third call, last weekend: I told the screener I didn't want to hold and didn't need to talk to Bob, just ask him to comment on the current administration's plan to end the MyIRA program which was started under the previous administration -- it has been a failure. He did not mention it on the show.
Greetings! Quick question that's entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
My web site looks weird when browsing from my iphone.
I'm trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue.
If you have any recommendations, please share. Appreciate it!
Doodle,
My advice is as soon as the clock strikes the start of his live broadcast or alternatively you hear Bob's voice or any intro music dial in using your speed dial. If you get a busy signal punch out and hit speed dial. Repeat rapidly until you get thru.
Make sure you are concise and know your numbers (example: annual pension annuity # eg. $25,000 & lump sum payout # eg. $250,000. Bob will use these two #s to get a % eg. 25,000/250,000 = 10%, and whether the annuity is inflation protected and whether your company is covered by PBGC, he might ask how healthy you are too since this is a factor. Bob leans toward taking the lump sum unless the % payout # is high and the pension is inflation protected.
https://www.pbgc.gov/search/insured-plans?fulltext=ibm
The maximum pension benefit guaranteed by PBGC is set by law and adjusted yearly. For plans that end in 2011, workers who retire at age 65 can receive up to $4,653.41 per month (or $55,840.92 per year) under PBGC's insurance program for single-esmmployer plans.
If you are at critical mass and are a subscriber you might mention that too (he seems to like hearing who have followed him to the land of critical mass)
Good luck, I got thru and spoke to Bob but the call was off air, that was after the 1987 crash, his answer to my question was "I got caught" (translation he failed to time the market and rode the crash down).
smile
Smile, good guidance for Doodle. Another consideration, one Bob tries to bring out is whether the lump sum would be a material addition to your assets. If you are already at critical mass and then some, and the lump sum will not be that big a percentage of your net worth, then this might lean to taking the monthly income.
If a goal is to someday pass it all along to heirs, that leans toward rolling the lump sum into your retirement account.
If you have a financial adviser, he might prefer you roll it into any retirement account you already have. This adds to the assets under management and his fees.
Good additional points Frankj, re: material add to net worth consideration and passing along to heirs.
It's also good to determine how many years one would have to take the annuity to beat the lump sum alternative and comparing to outlook for longevity
smile
I guess old BB got shaken up when his special guest could not be located, or maybe the phones were broke again. He soldiered thru the 3rd hour by reading from lecture notes and finally taking some calls, after someone plugged the phone cord back in.
Pity on John from Illinois (about 26:00 OnDemand, right after BB teases his "impending" allocation change, as if he's taken the bull by the horns.) John nervously brought forth a very rational idea, submitted for BB's approval, but BB threw up every road block and red flag simply based upon the "trigger words" that BB hates.
John's paychecks ($20,000) are spaced out because they are commissions from selling mortgages. So John charges his credit card a ton to meet needs in between, and recently rolled the balance onto a zero rate card with a 15-month grace period. He felt he could pay it off within, but asked BB for his opinion about taking a 401k loan to finish it off if need be, because (unstated) the interest rates on a 401k loan are much lower than a credit card. Makes perfect sense.
BB was beside himself with disgust, quizzing John about "how with you pay back the 401k?" John replied, "From my pay check." Then BB pounced and yelped, "They won't let you if you have a loan out!" Which is ridiculous because John would obviously pay back the 401k loan before contributing to the 401k again.
I guess BB automatically assumed that John would never pay back the 401k loan, or might keep dipping his beak into the same trough. Not sure if BB has much faith in his listeners, especially those he hasn't dragged to critical mass yet upon his worn-out broken back. The recent callers seem to suggest he did that for them. Curiously, why would anyone call BB if they had attained critical mass? He's not needed any longer.
Poor John got keelhauled by a "host" who was still burning from the vacant guest snafu. Remind me not to call during the third hour.
-Dusty
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