Sunday, April 30, 2017

April 30, 2017, Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Stocks, Bonds, Economy

April 30, 2017....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....(comments welcome)

IN EDIT: Some have expressed a great interest in hearing Jim, the worried multi-millionaire's call for Brinker's help. Here it is, thanks to dRahme. 

Honey is being slowly driven crazy by ATT internet....Still having problems after 6 calls through computer-voice hell. The headache of installing a new modem (of course they change all the numbers), and two servicemen telling me they can't find anything wrong - and another one coming tomorrow. 

Our friend, FrankJ came to my rescue and wrote the program summaries today.  But alas, even that didn't go smoothly for me because he forgot to attach the links. But fortunately, I had his phone number so was able to call on my Verizon phone which is the only thing I seem to be able to count on working right now.  Oh woe is me.... LOL! 

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK SUMMARY

Bob was live today on MoneyTalk, April 30, 2017. He reminded everyone that the show is all about acquiring the knowledge that empowers you to achieve financial security. The first few minutes of the show were chock full of statistics.

· The S&P 500 Index closed at 2384, just 11 points below its all-time high on March 1, 2017.

· The Dow is at 20,940 now, also just below its all-time high.

· First quarter GDP growth was only 0.7% the slowest in 3 years and the continuation in a series of weak first quarters.

· The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped one point from 98 to 97 for April. Despite the still-high value the sentiment has not translated into more spending.

· Employers are finding it is costing more to employ people. Wages are up 8 tenths of one percent, and benefit costs are up 7 tenths of one percent.

· Claims for unemployment insurance (4 week moving average) are the second lowest in 43 years.

· Bob reminded us that Cinco de Mayo (May 5th) is coming up. So is Mother’s Day (5/14) and markets will be closed 5/29 for Memorial Day.

· The Fed will this week for its usual Pajama Party on Tuesday followed by a box lunch on Wednesday. Bob does not expect a rate increase.

Don’t look for fiscal stimulus before 2018. Why? Because no package has been put together yet in Congress and with inflation and employment at target levels there is no rush.

Jim in Tacoma, WA led off the callers with a question on withdrawal rates. He’s 75 and his lifestyle demands 8% per year in withdrawals due in part to taxes and upkeep on two houses. They have $3.5 million in portfolio 3. Bob said the 4% withdrawal rate from savings and retirement minimizes the risk of running out of money. If Jim sticks with his 8% rate, he may have to sell his second house at some point.

Mark in Minneapolis confessed that Bob and Warren Buffett changed his life. He’s been a listener since the original Superbowl Sunday broadcast. He’s upset that at a recent Wells Fargo shareholder’s meeting no one on the board apologized or offered to resign for Wells’ recent scandal. Bob said apologies would have been appropriate but not resignations. Bob thought a more egregious scandal was when a Wall Street firm put together a package of mortgage loans which were intended to default. They then sold these to a European bank and one of the Wall Street firm’s clients shorted the package and made a ton of money. It was this client’s idea to do this in the first place and the investment bank went along.

Rick from Raleigh had a couple of Doomsday Scenarios to run by Bob. The first one involved having 3 bank CDs each with one year’s worth of expenses in case of a severe downturn. Bob liked this. He said he recommends having 1 – 2 years, and having 3 is a good insurance policy. This led Rick to his second “rainy day” plan: an umbrella policy for $2 million that covered about half of his $4 million net worth. Bob likes umbrella policies because for a reasonable premium you’re buying the insurance company’s legal staff if you’re sued. Should Rick increase the policy coverage? Bob didn’t seem opposed to that, but said there is no point in going beyond your net worth.

Joe in Poughkeepsie NY has $530K in a 401K and wants to know if there is one fund that would give him a 50-50 split between stocks and bonds. Bob said you can do it with the total stock market fund and a bond fund or CD’s. He told Joe if he wants to use one balanced fund, be aware of the allocation to stocks.

The second hour started with Bob reciting what information is out there on the administration’s tax reform plan. He managed to do this without mentioning President Trump’s name. (Is anyone keeping track of how many weeks it has been since he’s mentioned the President’s name?) 

The plan has a “dramatic twist” according to Bob. It is this: salaried workers will have a top rate of 39.6%. Small business owners who might have had the same top rate will pass their business income thru to their personal return. As self-employed taxpayers, their top rate will be 15%.

Deductions will be limited to the mortgage deduction, charitable deductions and contributions to retirement accounts will still get the pre-tax treatment. (This last item was a jump ball a few weeks ago.) There is talk of eliminating the estate tax completely. This drives the liberal/progressives crazy but in fact, only about 5000 families in the US were snagged by this in 2016 and it doesn’t raise that much revenue. The current exemption is $10.98 million for a married couple, half that for a single person.

The ability to deduct state and local taxes is in jeopardy. Currently people who itemize can deduct these on Schedule A. These taxes include: sales tax, property tax, state income tax and excise tax on vehicles if the tax is based on the vehicle’s value. These deductions can be significant and Bob speculated that some people may vote with their feet and move to a state with lower property taxes.

Bob quoted President Trump (again without stating his name) as saying, “I want to put HR Block out of business.” This was during the campaign.

(Editorial comment: I have some experience in this area. It seems very unlikely. Many of the people who come in to Block already have simple returns. Some are there because they want the rapid refund (on a debit card). Others simply don’t want to do their own return even if it only consists of one or two W-2 forms. Then there are those get the Earned Income Credit and in my opinion some of them have their return done by a professional because it gives them a sense of protection from audit. Then there are the people who do their taxes on-line and I think simplifying the tax code may drive more people to on-line vendors of which Block is one.) 

John from Texas was just off the golf course and he wanted to know what happens when “everybody” moves their money into index funds like the Vanguard Total Stock Market index? Will it get “musclebound” like Fidelity Magellan did years ago? Bob is not concerned because index funds simply spread the new money across their holdings in proportion to the stock weightings in the fund.

Bob didn’t get out into the weeds on this discussion but there is the notion that this leads to index fund investors ending up with shares that are more and more expensive as favorable markets attract more money into index funds. You can avoid acquiring “expensive” shares by simply not automatically re-investing capital gains and dividends.

Next at bat was Mel from Denver. Frankly I had a hard time tracking his question, so we’re going to move on to Jerry from Albuquerque who had an easy question. Since he is retired and since his wife is still working can she contribute to her IRA and contribute to one for him? Answer: Yes. As long as she makes $13K or more, she could contribute the max for each.

Greg in Traverse City MI said, “We’re 8 years into the economic cycle, could it go on for much longer?” Bob said “look for excesses – they lead to the perfect recipe for a problem.” One excess is an economy that expands too fast in search of the administration’s goal of 4-6% GDP growth.

3rd hour 

Today’s 3rd hour guest was Wall Street legend Dr. Henry Kaufman, author of the recent book, “Tectonic Shifts in Financial Markets: People, Policies and Institutions.” Bob was excited to have Dr. Kaufman on the program.

Bob got things rolling by asking the guest what he thought about the 2.3% interest on the 10 year treasury. Dr. Kaufman put things in (some sort?) of perspective saying that after World War 2 the 30 year rate was 2+% and in 1981 it was 15.25% and is now at 3%. He does not think we are going to see these big swings going forward.

Why do people put up with negative rates? The guest said some institutions have to keep a certain amount of their capital liquid. Also, they like to keep liquid assets in their own currency so for this reason they may have to put up with negative rates.

Bob and the guest got into tax policy, with the possible disparity between the 15% rate for small business owners and the top 39.6% rate for salaried people. The guest didn’t seem too concerned that these would survive the process in Congress.

Is tax policy a driver of GDP? No. Dr. Kaufman said economic growth is linked to credit growth. He pointed out that corporate debt is high now, household debt is relatively high and while government debt is high, only government has the capacity to take on more debt. Corporations and households are hampered by their credit ratings. In the 1980’s there were 61 banks with AAA credit ratings, in the 1970’s there were 15 and today there are none.

On the topic of politicizing of the Fed, Dr. Kaufman had some strong views. Referring to Alan Greenspan … he was a folk hero until he lapsed. The Fed did not get out ahead of the repeal of Glass Stegall in terms of where it would lead. Before it was repealed, a handful of firms controlled only 10% of financial assets. Now, that same number controls 80% as a result of the securitization of assets. The “heads I win, tails you lose” attitude is alive and well at publicly owned financial institutions. A trader will take outsized risks because if successful it will earn him a bonus. But, losses will be absorbed by shareholders. The guest contrasted that with his own experience in the 1960’s when he became a partner at Salomon Brothers when, as a partner, his personal wealth was on the line.

There were two calls but they aren’t worth mentioning.

Bob went to a favorite subject of his, what will happen when the blended rate on gov’t debt goes from 2.1% up to 6% which is where it was in 2000. Dr. Kaufman seemed to brush this aside; pointing out that the average maturity has risen from 4 to 7 years so he doesn’t have much concern. Nor does he have much concern about what Bob called complacency in Congress. The guest said our interest rates are competitive and he is not concerned over the next 3 – 5 years. The challenge is going to be managing debt among the government, businesses and households. When financial institutions get aggressive in their lending the marginal borrowers show up – and that’s a risk.

The take away is that our financial institutions perform a critical role involving both entrepreneurial drive and a fiduciary duty. For 20-30 years these have not been in balance and it is up to the institutions to regain this balance and up to the government to enforce it.

Bob closed out the interview, thanking Dr. Kaufman and referring to him as a national treasure.

Honey here: Thank you, Frankj for that great Moneytalk summary. 

Thanks to dRahme these audio clips:

 Short clip from Brinker's opening monologue
Short clip Brinker analyzing the proposed tax changes
Short clip Brinker talking about the FOMC meeting next week

Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK  
KION 1460  Monterey


82 comments:

SuzyPie said...

What's happened to Mr Brinker? Tomorrow is not Cinco De Mayo.

Anonymous said...

Cinco de mayo?

DRS said...

I thought he said only that Cinco De Mayo would occur this upcoming week .

KC said...

How do you get the Cinco de mayo date wrong, especially after you go out of your way to promote it on your show.....twice!!!

MikeE said...

In one statement he led me to believe that it was tomorrow and in another statement he led me to believe it was this week.

KC said...

Well he failed to recognize May Day which is tomorrow so I am taking back the basket I got him.

Just curious, has Brinker ever mentioned how he feels about oil or energy investments? Or does it fit into the "speculation" arena. I am liking Vanguard's etf - VDE - at its current price.

Honeybee said...

.
Cinco De Mayo means the 5th of May. It is a Mexican holiday that is celebrated in the US (California) much more than it is in Mexico.

Anonymous said...

John from SF said:

I was just thinking about how some years ago I used to often make somewhat of an effort to listen to Bob Brinker on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Of course that was before the days of easy internet radio and easy recording (mp3) of content. I don't think we're missing anything with him being on only once a week (and sometimes hardly that due to reruns). I may have wasted a lot of time back then making an effort to hear him but often it was while i was doing something else like hanging out by the pool, hiking, or biking. I'm more careful now about becoming a fanatic about any content.

Jim said...

KC said:
"Just curious, has Brinker ever mentioned how he feels about oil or energy investments? Or does it fit into the "speculation" arena. I am liking Vanguard's etf - VDE - at its current price."

Since Brinker has a recommendation for Suncor Energy(SU) I do not think he feels the energy sector is total speculation. There are many fine blue-chip companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron that pay dividends. Of course any sector fund should be kept to a small allocation. Since Brinker is fine with 4% in Suncor I think he'd feel the same about VDE.

Fritz Zener said...

Yes, BB said "Here on the eve of Cinco De Mayo" before his first call.

The first caller said that he had $3.5M in Portfolio III, $1.5M in a vacation home, and $2.5M in his primary home. He was drawing 8% per year and feared having to sell one of his properties. Poor guy.

And then after the call BB said his newsletter would be available "... tomorrow, on Cinco De Mayo."

Then, after a break and before his second call with Mark, BB recovered and said that Friday was Cinco De Mayo. Mark said BB and Buffet changed his life.

There were certainly some interesting calls today.

Honeybee said...

.
Fritz....That first caller lived in Tacoma, Washington. I did not know that homes were that expensive there.

He also said he was 75 years old. Even if his $3.5M portfolio kicked of nothing, it should easily get him a pretty cushy 20 years, should he live that long.

My internet popped off for part of the call. I wonder if he said anything about a pension or Social Security.

frankj said...

He didn't mention anything about pension or SocSec. I guess homes could get that expensive there. The MEDIAN price up the road in Seattle is $700K. If he's on the water then I could see $2.5 mil.

Fritz Zener said...

Hi Honeybee - The Tacoma caller must have a mansion. I did not hear SS mentioned during the call, but as you said, he should be sitting pretty with SS and a $3.5M portfolio. He has a large budget, 8% of $3.5M is $280K/year. Better to die broke.

Anonymous said...

To Fritz Zener:
Hi ya doin', buddy? Is that the same Zener as in the Zener diode, the electronic check-valve?

Anyway, good call to call out the whining rich-guy caller. I had the same reaction. Therefore, your feelings are validated by "me ova here". Got that?

To paraphrase what yous was sayin', The freakin rich guy calls up and proceeds to line-item his assets as Bob clips his toenails. Then the rich guy laments, "I might have to sell my vacation home because I'm drawing down 8% from my wealth" (probably a gov. 401k).

And at the end of the caller's "I Love Me" call, Bob finally offers his recommendation, which is, "Yeah, you might."

To the radio broadcast producer: WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THE SENSELESS WASTE OF AIRWAVES FOR CALLS LIKE THAT?

Does it give you time to finish that very large blimpie you enjoy every 3 hours?

Radio is both a gift and a curse. Some days I dislike Mr. Marconi.
-Vinny, Newark

Bluce said...

Dang, I was visiting my neighbors all afternoon, didn't get home til the end of the 2nd hour. I took a gamble that Bobby would not be live today, because he was "due" to be off. Oh well, I'm a lousy gambler.

I've Googled around and found nothing, anyone know if there is a free podcast of the show? I'd love to hear the call from that "poor" multi-millionaire.

Anonymous said...

Cinco de Drinko (amateur night) comes on a Friday, good time to stay off the roads.

Anonymous said...

Nice summary, thx

Biker said...

President Trump's recently proposed tax plan is outlined here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2017/04/26/president-trump-proposed-massive-tax-cut-heres-what-you-need-know

Quote: "We are going to cut taxes and simplify the tax code by taking the current 7 tax brackets we have today and reducing them to only three brackets: 10 percent, 25 percent, and 35 percent.

We are going to double the standard deduction so that a married couple won’t pay any taxes on the first $24,000 of income they earn. So in essence, we are creating a 0 percent tax rate for the first $24,000 that a couple earns.

The larger standard deduction also leads to simplification because far fewer taxpayers will need to itemize..."

So the now proposed top bracket for individuals is 35%, not 39.6% as stated by Bob Brinker.

Jim said...

Yes, it's hard for me as well to feel sorry for the multi-millionaire who's worried about his finances because of property taxes. He should have thought more about property taxes BEFORE he spent a total of $4M on real estate. If I were as wealthy as Bill Gates or Warren Buffett I wouldn't even spend $4M on real estate. As long as I'd have enough land for privacy and a modest home I'd be fine.

Anonymous said...

Haven't seen any mention of the deduction on HSAs, even in the White House summary. If every deduction is out except Mortgages, IRAs, and charitable, then I take it to mean the HSA deduction is out. Surprising in that promoting use of HSAs was to be prominent in most discussions of Obamacare repeal and replace.

Dr. Bob

Jerrod Clarkson said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

.
Brinker paints a rosy picture of the last 8 years, and went politically negative on November 8, 2016:

Take a look at what the past 8 years did to this country - straight from the Fed's website.

Unknown said...

Thanks so much for the summary!

Anonymous said...

HB you have got to be kidding those charts you show are in context of the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression 1929. Do you not remember?

The Debt ballooned because of the downturn in the economy on the watch of Bush 1 trillion deficits as far as the eye could see (two wars not paid for couple trillion there in blood and treasure and Medicare part D not paid for).

That mess was left for Obama to clean up and he did.

I saw a glimpse of Bernanke this am. on CNBC and the FED although slow to respond in the beginning took extraordinary measures to stabilize the economy after Bush. I thought to myself yep Bernanke actually did an excellent job after the late start.

I always like to revisit this video of Cramer screaming at Bernanke to lower rates Cramer on the Fed Bernanke needs to open the darn fed window He has no idea how bad...

If you can not say you are better off at the end of the Obama administration than you were at the end of W's administration then so sorry for you, but I have done extremely well. Those charts you show do not reflect what would have occurred without the extraordinary measures taken by the Fed and the Obama Administration. Agree or not those are the facts.

I actually am amused at those who attempt to pull stats out of context of what was occurring at the time a major recession/potential depression. Down at S&P 666.79 many here and elsewhere had the covers over their heads. I was buying in fact Obama called the bottom within a 6 days of the actual bottom.

Obama called the stock market bottom within 6 days of actual bottom

This is not political facts are facts.

smile

Honeybee said...

.
What a kidder you are Smile - just like Brinker in that respect.

Spout all the liberal talking points and then claim they aren't political.

Thanks for the laugh of the day. :)

Anonymous said...

HB Just the facts m'am glad to help w/ the lotd :).

Love that Cramer video. Scary preview of things to come a year later. Bear Stearns at 109 now that was a laugh.

I get it facts are liberal talking points ;)


smile

Moe Howard said...

If you were in the market from 2008 to 2016 and you didn't make money, you missed the boat. I know people who went to cash after Obama was elected. Big mistake. I never invest based on politics.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

smile,

I'm not sure that it is wise for me to jump in here - but I feel compelled to do so.

I think Honeybee was overly gracious in her reply to you. I would have told you to get lost AND to let the door hit you in the arse.

Honeybee and her BRT spend many, many hours in operating the news, editorial and discussion aspects of this blog, and we don't show our appreciation nearly often enough. Honeybee allows differences of opinion here (when they are put forward in a respectful manner).

Your post was short on relevant facts and long on snide harassment in my opinion. Put another way, when you visit someone's residence it is very poor form to crap on their dining room table - and very unlikely that you will ever be invited again.

Hopefully you will see fit to apologize to Honeybee.


JC



MikeE said...

Excellent comment Moe, I don't think the president has very much to do with the market in the medium to long term. The market will do what the market will do.

frankj said...

Jerrod, thanks for your nice compliment to the BRT. However, this is nearly ALL HB's efforts. I contribute, yeah, but like Bob Brinker, I only work Sunday's and for less time than he's on the air! HB does a great job of keeping things here on an even keel.

gabe said...

Those who invested wisely and reached critical mass need to venture out of the accumulation stage and into the capital distribution stage. Over the years reverberating in my ears is Brinker's suggestion to those appearing to be stuck in the accumulation stage to SPEND!

Four percent is a good starting point. For many who are fortunate in having a substantial pension(s) perhaps a larger percent would be in order.

Life is short!

Gabe

Bluce said...

Moe Howard said: If you were in the market from 2008 to 2016 and you didn't make money, you missed the boat. I know people who went to cash after Obama was elected. Big mistake. I never invest based on politics.

I agree; nobody should invest based on who wins elections, no matter if it's someone you love or someone you hate. Stick to your asset allocation and rebalance as necessary.

And, as has already been mentioned, the POTUS has little to do with the direction of the stock market in the long run.

And who mentioned Cramer? Haha, the King of Investment Porn.

MK said...

I have some experience in this area. It seems very unlikely. Many of the people who come in to Block already have simple returns.

Once people get the drift their taxes are easy, there will be a lot more do-it-self types. Like pumping gas; everyone does it themselves now without thinking. The reason people fear taxes today is because it can get complex and why take the risk or try to figure it out? Trump is right here, IMO.

MK said...

The best thing about Trump's tax plan? It hammers high-tax states. And those are blue states. I LOVE THIS. Elections have consequences. Trump has done his job. Congress better deliver.

Most people don't realize the reason the stock market is so high right now is Trump's tax plan. If it passes, expect a massive boom. The market merely gyrates right now based upon how the tax plan progress looks.

Honeybee said...

.
Smile...you had your say, a couple of times.

JC had his.

I had mine.

Now we are done.

Anonymous said...

From FRANKJ'S SUMMARY

"The ability to deduct state and local taxes is in jeopardy. Currently people who itemize can deduct these on Schedule A. These taxes include: sales tax, property tax, state income tax and excise tax on vehicles if the tax is based on the vehicle’s value. These deductions can be significant and Bob speculated that some people may vote with their feet and move to a state with lower property taxes. "

My take on Brinkers theory "that many may leave high tax states and move to low tax states." That does not wash with me. Although it would be nice to just simply pick up and move to avoid high state and local taxes, there is so much more that figures into the decision to move. I for one dislike how CA taxes me and then spends that money on unwise projects. ( unwise in my estimation ). But I am very fond of California's weather. The weather alone is worth a couple or even a few thousand dollars. If you offered me $100K spread out over 10 years to move to Fla. and stay, I would decline. But that's just me with all my quirks, but Bob may know better.

Compliments to FRANKJ for the super effort he puts into his summary of Brinker's show.


Vigilant


Anonymous said...

From FRANKJ'S SUMMARY

"The ability to deduct state and local taxes is in jeopardy. Currently people who itemize can deduct these on Schedule A. These taxes include: sales tax, property tax, state income tax and excise tax on vehicles if the tax is based on the vehicle’s value. These deductions can be significant and Bob speculated that some people may vote with their feet and move to a state with lower property taxes. "

My take on Brinkers theory "that many may leave high tax states and move to low tax states." That does not wash with me. Although it would be nice to just simply pick up and move to avoid high state and local taxes, there is so much more that figures into the decision to move. I for one dislike how CA taxes me and then spends that money on unwise projects. ( unwise in my estimation ). But I am very fond of California's weather. The weather alone is worth a couple or even a few thousand dollars. If you offered me $100K spread out over 10 years to move to Fla. and stay, I would decline. But that's just me with all my quirks, but Bob may know better.

Compliments to FRANKJ for the super effort he puts into his summary of Brinker's show.


Vigilant

Daddy Paul said...

"It is this: salaried workers will have a top rate of 39.6%." I read the tax proposal. I did not see 39.6%

Bluce said...

Leaving one's home: Despite the horrid taxes here in NYS, and that King Cuomo made it clear that he doesn't want conservatives here, and that winters are tough, I'm not leaving. The cancerous liberals only infest the urban areas. Out here in the boonies they are a small minority.

Outside of the cesspool of NY City, the state is beautiful. I love the change of seasons. I have family roots going back to 1802 here in NYS. Half of the year we have NO bugs and NO reptiles.

I live between this lake and this lake.

I ain't leaving.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

frankj,

You are very welcome!

Honeybee, you and the BRT do a fantastic job here!


JC

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Bluce,

Those are beautiful pictures of the lakes!

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that NYC (under Rudy's guidance) improved exponentially in looks and most importantly public safety.

Of course his mayoral duties ended in 2001. So, given the vacuum of competent leadership for the past 16 years, I take it that NYC has relapsed into its pre-Rudy disfigurement? Probably the non-stop protests and pink knitted head-ware haven't help matters either.


JC

Honeybee said...

.
GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE THAT WANTED TO HEAR JIM'S POOR ME, I ONLY HAVE MULTI-MILLIONS TO LIVE ON.

dRahme made an audio clip for us. I will also add it to the summary.

Bluce said...

Jerrod -- I've only been to NYC twice: In 1955 as a little kid with my family, and in 1985 or thereabouts for about a half hour. It is about 375 miles from where I live.

To me and most upstaters, NYC, Long Island, NJ, and Conn. are one big socialist left-wing paradise that we would love to see break away from us and form their own state. But of course it will never happen because they couldn't survive without OUR tax dollars. Aside from that, I have no clue what's going on down there and don't care.

HONEY and dRhame: THANKS FOR THE CLIP! Haha, that poor clueless multi-millionaire. Instead of not having enough money to support his lifestyle, I would say that he has too much lifestyle for the amount of money he has, haha.

Is he really that dumb or was he just showing off?

Unknown said...

Regarding H&R - Worked there one season part time. Agree people are after their money fast. H&R fully explains the cost of the refund anticipation loan (and I tried to talk people out of it). Really after giving your money to Uncle Sam for a full year why is 3 days so much more of a burden than 3 weeks? But it's used as forced savings and they have exactly what they want picked out. As long as they have enough left after fees, they don't care. Some countries actually fill out the income tax form for you and you can accept, change or do it yourself. H&R fights such a scheme in the US.

Mad as HELL! said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
gabe said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

.
If anyone thinks they can send an anonymous note asking for a Marketimer update, and get it from me, you need to think again.

gabe said...

(2)Two winners this weekend!


Gabe

Investor 99 said...

I was looking for the Marketimer update. Was just too lazy to type e-mail detail so went for Anonymous. I can not get the news letter at my library any more.

Anonymous said...

I'm changing my mind on selloff if no tax reform.

Based on great earnings this quarter and projected earnings the market will do fine regardless of whether tax reform goes anywhere.

I was of the belief that if tax reform failed we would see a significant Fibonacci retrace on the gains thus far. Vapor coming out theory.

However if tax reform succeeds it should give us fuel to propel stock market higher than if no tax reform.

I would love to see individual tax simplification. I'm so over spending hours on taxes each year. Most Corporations do not pay anywhere close to top rates with all the deducts and tax loophole goodies. As for repatriation and a small tax to fund an infrastructure bank I don't see a flood of money coming home. Also repatriated funds will probably not go for PP&E (growth efficiencies) but rather for stock buy backs, dividend increases or maybe takeovers. Bottom line is anticipated growth from tax reform is unlikely to produce much growth IMO.

This market is long in the tooth but until I see signs of slow down (ugly 1st Qtr GDP of .7 is exhibit A - going forward or worse) I plan to hang on to my equity positions.

Another pause for me is timing - the 30th Anniversary of the '87 Crash is coming upon us in October. Unless you lived through it with money at risk you probably think a mere 22% correction which if memory serves was about 500 dow pts was nothing - trust me it was scary cause it happened on a single day - Previous deca anniversaries have been a marker give or take a year for some major exogenous event creating a market correction.

Brinker may just get the next major direction call correct - blind squirrel theory

My crystal ball is closed for tonight.

smile

Honeybee said...

.
Investor 99....Okay....I will answer the question for you and everyone on this blog.

I have now read the May issue of Marketimer and most of what it says is very much like what is in FrankJ's Moneytalk summary. Nothing major to add to it.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Two things have me "bothered".

1) The recent phenomenon and frequency of multi-millionaires seeking financial advice from Bob. Is it just me or do others here believe something is amiss on NCC-1701?

2) The call from "Jim" our latest "poor" multi-millionaire from Tacoma, WA. I tried to get an idea of what a $2.500,000 home in Tacoma, WA might look like. I was unable to find one. The closest I came up with (linked below) is far less expensive. It is listed at $1,700,000. Now, it has been quite some time since I have gone house hunting, but (with 5 beds 6 baths and 11,522 sq. ft.) I am of the opinion that this is hardly a "starter home" - yet it is $800,000 less that Jim's house!

And so I ask, what the heck is going on here with THAT Bob, Poor Jim, and other assorted multi-millionaire characters seeking out several minutes with a talk show host in order to solve their complex financial "problems"?

-------

A $1,700,000 starter home?

This is truly a gorgeous house! Actually, it looks more like a museum!

Click on the front view of the house and it will open a slide show with 46 pictures.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/521-N-Tacoma-Ave-Tacoma-WA-98403/2094572534_zpid/


JC

Honeybee said...

.
Jerrod, that is an incredible mansion for less than $2 million. Not one that I'd want to live in. I like comfy and cozy.

As you said, all these "I'm so rich, but I need your help, Bob" calls are starting to seem strange to me too.

Bluce said...

Jerrod/Honey -- the rich callers lately have me wondering too.

"Poor" Jim the other day is especially curious. I didn't add it up, but he must have a net worth of around $10 million. How does one accumulate that much, yet be unable to live within one's means -- as Jim is obviously incapable of doing? Or not know that you cannot sustain an 8% withdrawal rate? Or why would one ask some loser on the radio for financial advice?

Assuming the call was legit, no self-made person would think like that. He either came from old money or married into it, and doesn't really know how to handle all that wealth that he didn't have to work for.

BWV said...

In my overly-leftist section of West Los Angeles, $1.7MM will buy you a tear-down.

Anonymous said...

‪Midway Gardens‬ on May 2, 2017 at 3:33 AM shared some insight into H&R Block. it was revealing about the mind set of the customer. The submitted contribution included this statement, "Some countries actually fill out the income tax form for you and you can accept, change or do it yourself."

That reminded me of the old standard joke about tax simplification.
"The latest income-tax form has been greatly simplified. It consists of only three parts:
1. How much did you make last year?
2. How much do you have left?
3. Send amount listed in part 2."
(No attribution found.)

Also:
"Worried about an IRS audit? Avoid what's called a red flag. That's something the IRS always looks for. For example, say you have some money left in your bank account after paying taxes. That's a red flag." -----Jay Leno

I find tax and IRS jokes to be a stress reliever. :)

Vigilant

Mad as HELL! said...

Bluce said:

"Assuming the call was legit..."


I am assuming that most/all of those types of calls are not legit. However, if I am wrong, I think THAT Bob should change his print and broadcast offerings to:

1. "Moneytalk for the 1 percenters"
2. "Marketimer for the 1 percenters"

Regarding "Marketimer for the 1 percenters", Bob could boost the the annual subscription price to $20,000 or so. Yeah, I know it sounds expensive but that is much less than the guys would spend on one evening gown for their wife.

Not only that, but Bernie Sanders could get some great tips from Bob when he gets tired of his three houses and is ready to buy a fourth house.

Bernie, a "man of the people."

Feel the Bern!


frankj said...

Our cash strapped friend with the two houses might actually live outside Tacoma. After the chatter began here about the paucity of really high end homes in Tacoma I suspected he might have been calling from Gig Harbor which is close, but a much smaller community. So he might have been screening his identity somewhat.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/fsba,fsbo,fore,cmsn_lt/pmf,pf_pt/1400000-2650000_price/5216-9873_mp/globalrelevanceex_sort/47.344696,-122.549315,47.319159,-122.609654_rect/13_zm/

Link to Zillow for some expensive homes in Gig Harbor.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

...BREAKING...

Sting has some questions about selling his condo. Will he be calling Bob this weekend for advice? THAT is the 56 million dollar question!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/sting-lists-condo-at-nyc-s-15-central-park-west-for-56-million


JC

Bluce said...

that MAD said: Not only that, but Bernie Sanders could get some great tips from Bob when he gets tired of his three houses and is ready to buy a fourth house.

. . . is ready to "buy" a fourth? I thought the DNC bought his last house, courtesy of the "Useful Idiots" who send them money?

Mad as HELL! said...

Bluce,

He and wifey are wheeler-dealers. I wonder if they are related to the clinton clan? It appears that his wife is now feelin' the burn. Odd that there has been little/nothing about this in the MSM:

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2017/05/02/officials-burlington-college-subject-fbi-justice-dept-probe/101194818/

Depending on how things turn out, wifey may get free accommodations at the graybar hotel. Three squares and a cot. Yeah, feel the burn baby!





Bluce said...

MAD: Ha, no, for some reason the MSM seems to miss stories like that, or stories about Bernie's ideological pals like this.

Bluce said...

FWIW: Sometime around March 25 I started reading "Black Edge," the book that Bobby raved about previously. I've plodded my way to page 126. I've been forcing myself to read it lately, and that's what happens when I end up never finishing a book.

So, I'm done at less than halfway through. Sorry Bobby, it wasn't a page-turner for me, but my career wasn't in high finance -- maybe that's the difference.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Bluce,

You really should consider going to NYC again. Looks like they have some pretty neat stuff there.

My two favorites are:

- The West Side Cow Tunnels (I wonder if there they have any Bacon Boy tunnels?)
- Track 61


Even Midtown Manhattan Has Its Secrets
There are treasures hidden in plain sight in America's most commercial neighborhood.

By Molly McBride Jacobson, Places Fellow
34 Places

https://goo.gl/qmgBe4


JC


gabe said...

Jobs tomorrow!

Gabe

gabe said...

AAPL did tremendously! Thank You!

Gabe

Anonymous said...

Roaring into the weekend; Cinco de Mayo, all night happy hour. May sixth, continuation of Cinco de Mayo. Sunday, in addition to Bob there is the French Election. Monday, the winning party gets to celebrate and gloat an additional day as Monday is a holiday in France. Is it V. E. Day? Or is it the liberation of France from the Nazis? If La Pen wins it could point to the liberation of France from the EU.

Vigilant

Bluce said...

JC: I stay as far away from cities as possible.

Vigilant: The French election will be interesting. Even La Pen supporters think she'll lose. We will see!

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Bluce,

Macron is completely macrong (sic) for France - or anywhere. Hopefully the voters will come to their senses. Viva Le Pen!

Elsewhere, an interesting article:

SP 500 Earnings: Big Jump in SP 500’s Forward 4-Qtr Growth Rate

http://fundamentalis.com/?p=6895


JC

gabe said...

In order that the market(s) behave it is best that the centrist candidate win in France. From my perspective, it is all about the money!

Gabe

Bluce said...

JC: I am totally rooting for "The Woman," unlike during the recent election here, haha.

All those pro-Macron French liberals must "hate women" and prefer white men.

The French White Male is just another clueless, globalist socialist like "The Woman" was here. "The French Woman," like "The Man" here, stands for controlling borders and law and order. It is hard to grasp how these things can even be controversial, but they are. The left is out of ideas and is disintegrating intellectually although, like a wounded lion, they are still extremely dangerous.

Bluce said...

Gabe: The "centrist" candidate is Le Pen. I'm glad you're rooting for her.

gabe said...

Bluce: On the contrary, I am rooting for the male in the race; all of the business periodicals appear to believe that markets will do well both here and in Europe with his election. Le Pen is the ultra right gal. Politically, I could care less, however, financially I give a darn!

If you want a long shot in the derby bet on Patch...the one eye horse.

Gabe

Bluce said...

Gabe, so you're fine with more rape, murder, and general violence and unrest in Europe as long as you "make more money" in the stock market?

It's not a mystery (same as here last fall) on which side each candidate stands.

gabe said...

Bluce: Your statement borders upon hysteria!

Gabe

Bluce said...

Rice "The Shouter" Delman is claiming today that his show has been on 25 years, longer than any other personal investment program. Bobby is in his 31st year, no?

Is Rice only counting new shows, and only ones hosted by him? By that measure he probably has more shows, but he has not been on longer than anyone else.

Am I missing something?

Bluce said...

Anyone who thinks more socialism (if they can even define or recognize it) is the answer, then they don't understand socialism.

It always ends the same.

Bluce said...

LOL @ supporting law and order as being "hysterical."

Bluce said...

Leftists world-wide have gotten their wish: There will be more terrorism, violent street crime, cultural upheaval, and unrest in France going forward.

frankj said...

Socialism. "...always ends the same." True.

Venezuela -- article in WSJ about malnutrition among very young children. The innocent and most defenseless get the brunt of it. Mother's scrounging through trash for food scraps to feed their kids.

Farmers giving up because of price controls. People stealing crops at night. It should be one of the wealthiest countries in South America, instead it is circling the drain.

gabe said...

Congrats to France! They had sense to vote against the far right! Markets will act accordingly!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

.
This subject is now closed, but I get one say:

Very sad day for France, Europe, Britain, the United States and the entire world.