Of course, some of the same stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index are also in the total stock market index which makes up the lion's share of all of his equity model portfolios. Matter of fact, the cash raised from selling RYOCX (mutual fund proxy for QQQ) went directly into the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund -- so no cash was raised.
Brinker is also negative on junk bond funds now and sold all of Vanguard High-Yield Fund from his fixed-income portfolio back in October. There is a lot of negative talk about junk bonds recently. Here's an article that sounds very cautionary: Two Things about High-Yield Funds Investors Must Understand Today.
Brinker also cautions to stay short-term on maturity and duration in bond funds.
In the February issue of Marketimer, Brinker raised his S&P 500 Index target range: "Applying the 14.5 to 15 P/E range to our 2013 S&P 500 operating earnings estimate of $105 provides the S&P 500 Index with the potential to trade into the mid-1500s range going forward." That is an increase from his prior forecast of "upper 1400s to lower 1500s."
There has been no recent words about the secular bear that he believes the stock market has been in since 2000, or the cyclical bull that he says started in March 2009. A few months ago, he stated that the cyclical bull could run a while longer. Well, now it's run a while longer, but looks like he thinks it still has some "run" in it. :)
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their sixth week of gains. Friday, the S&P 500 Index gained 8.54 points to 1,517.93, and rose 0.3% for the week. So here we are in the 1500s again. The last time we were there was in October 2007.
Will Brinker call the top of this awesome bull run? He didn't call the top in October 2007. Just the opposite, he was a roaring bull and rode that nasty bear all the way down 57% fully invested. Consequently, his followers had no money to buy with when the market was near the bottom. All available stock market money was already invested if Bob Brinker's advice was followed, so subscribers/followers have simply regained losses during this current bull-run.
In my opinion, he has to be even more careful about going to cash now than ever before. He has his son's newsletter hitched to his star -- quite literally. Almost all callers indicate that they believe Bobby Jr's newsletter (aka Bob Brinker, also), is published by the famous talk show host.
We shall know in the fullness of time -- this bull market won't last forever. Brinker has enjoyed this bull run, seeming to have completely forgotten what happened in the last bear. He has called multiple "buying opportunities" and then bragged about them -- never mentioning the multiple times he called buying opportunities during the bear -- just to have the market keep crashing down.
Do I think he will ever raise cash? Nope, but hey, don't tell him I said that. LOL!
5 comments:
"Bob Brinker is still bullish on the stock market, which seems a bit contradictory in light of the fact that he has announced on Moneytalk that he sold all Nasdaq holdings in his newsletter (Marketimer)."
That's not contradictory, that's a sideways move. He is still fully invested in the broad market.
Bob
The market will be alright as long as they keep continuing the sequester. Eventually I believe congress and the president will work out a deal and the market will improve as we have made up ground the last few years and law makers don't want to lose the momentum. Just my analysis Bobs view is just as good as mine or honeys or anonymous we all have to wait until all the cards are played out. (hope they catch that rogue cop)
Bob,
So you think that selling Nasdaq is a sideways move. Well, I suppose it could be viewed that way, but do you know the real reason he did that?
Here are three guesses, you choose:
1. He thinks the Nasdaq is in a bubble like it was in 2000 when it was about 30% higher and he sent out a special bulletin saying to buy QQQ immediately.
2. He can now claim he made a profit on RYOCX (proxy for QQQ) that he bought with the same money he told subscribers to use to buy at three times the price -- in his model portfolio.
3. In the future, when he gets letter or when a miracle happens and someone gets on the air and asks when he is going to close his 2000 QQQ trade, he can tell them he did that in October 2012.
Let me know which you think it is....
John, did you read my last article that discusses Bob Brinker's latest market advice?
I agree that I hope they catch that rogue killer cop.
Hi Ms. H.B.
I would like a high yield fund that does not have extravagant yields like they use to do.Even if they give out less yield don't you think the companies will beable to pay their obligation.I think high yield is in a sweet spot right now.And a lot of people feel that anyone owning them are greedy.
Have a nice week Ms.H.B.
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