Bob Brinker's official performance record is contained in his three Marketimer model portfolios. That is where he makes asset allocation changes and mutual fund changes. If he raises cash, it is shown there.
Brinker publishes the performance of the three portfolios on his website, and Mark Hulbert (Hulbert's Financial Digest) ranks Brinker's market-timing performance using an average of the three portfolios.
Therefore, Brinker's success and failure as a market-timer is reflected in those portfolios. No matter how many times he issues so-called "buy-signals," it makes no difference to those who follow his advice in the newsletter and remain fully invested -- never raising cash.
Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio asset allocation has been 100% fully invested since March, 2003. They reached their all-time-high in October, 2007:
That was when the 2008-2009 megabear market began -- the worst since the Great Depression. Brinker advised his subscribers and listeners to remain fully invested and shockingly gave repeated buy-signals as the market fell -- so that any new money was invested on the way down.
Model portfolios I and II, both 100% equity holdings, crashed about 57% from top to the market bottom in March, 2009. Model portfolio III, which at the market high was about 40% bonds, lost slightly less.
Five years later, in 2012, all three of Brinker's model portfolios have finally regained their horrific losses and are slightly ahead of where they were on October 31, 2007. This has been a good year for the stock market and you can see here where the portfolios ended 2011. They still had a ways to go in 2012 to recover back to 2007 levels:
Yes, you read that right. It took five years to get back to even and move slightly ahead. Will Brinker raise cash before the next megabear market? I don't think so....He never sells into weakness, and he didn't sell for the last two (infinitesimally less than) 20% correction in 2010 and 2011.
9 comments:
In the last 12 years the Fed has had the most anti deflationary policy in history and the total real return index (S&P 500 with reinvested dividends adjusted for inflation) is down about 12% and has been down as much as 51%
For God's sake woman, if this pundits record is so atrocious why do you persistently follow his every utterance? Kinda masochistic if you ask me. BRINKER's advice is obviously WORTHLESS! -- or as one ol' blogger calls him, "Stinker"..
The Truth Detector
Anonymous A Anonymous (AKA Truth Detector)said...
For God's sake woman,
Why is God relevant to this discussion? Are you lost or just confused.AGAIN?
...Kinda masochistic if you ask me.
NOONE aksed you.
BRINKER's advice is obviously WORTHLESS!
Thanks for the stating the TRUTH for a change,
Are you having a nice day after going to church?
BS Detector (AKA Lovable, Wise, COMICAL Pig)
The truth detector,
The answer to your question is very simple:
I am so persistent in reporting on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk and the newsletter (Marketimer) that he hawks on Moneytalk, because he has a national radio microphone that he sometimes uses to mislead the audience.
That said....Don't you think "it's kinda masochistic" for you to faithfully read every word I write about Bob Brinker on this blog?
John Early,
I don't have time to verify your data, but you are a bit low on how much the S&P has been down over the past 12 years. From the October 2007 high to the March, 2009 low, it was down about 57% -- just as Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio I and II were.
And this I do know for a fact: The S&P is still down 6.3% from the all time high!
I posted some charts on Seeking Alpha with one showing the S&P500 made an all time record high with dividends reinvested for the second time in less than a few months.
It is chart #1 at SPY Adjusted For Dividends At Record High While ECRI's WLI Falls
It is comical that a show called "Moneytalk" does not talk about money invested in the broad, S&P500 index making an all time high. It means even if you lumped summed into the market at the very worst time in 2007, such as when Brinker called for 1600s for 2008, then you are ahead now.
My graph shows the market made its first new all time record high at the end of Q3 last year so Brinker has had over three months to talk about it.
Thanks Kirk...
That helps to explain why Bob Brinker's portfolios have finally recovered their 2008-09 losses.
Good article. Wonder how many can afford to re-invest all dividends over all those years.
"Wonder how many can afford to re-invest all dividends over all those years. "
Probably anyone like me who still has earned income and/or is below the IRA RMD age limit.
For example, when I left HP in late 1998 I rolled my 401K into a self directed IRA that I trade similar to my newsletter explore portfolio. I also rolled a small pension lump sum into a "core portfolio" account at Vanguard to be my personal benchmark. I use these as "real money" accounts to see how well my own active management does compared to a reasonable benchmark. (ie, to make sure I'm not kidding myself that I add significant value over indexing) In over 14 years, I've not added to taken out a penny from either.
BOTH accounts made record all time highs this year. My self directed IRA is up 69% from the March 2000 peak and about 10% above the last bull market peak of 2007. It pretty much follows my core plus explore returns.
Far fewer "regular people" are interested in investing in the stock market these days so I've spent far less time "advertising" but the returns available without Brinker's hocus pocus act are impressive. Sadly, it doesn't do him any financial good to make that message clear to his audience. His idea of "being your own financial manager" is paying him to tell you when to get in and out of the market while he's been fully invested since 2003 and hides the poor results of his QQQ advice (See Effect of QQQ Advice on Bob Brinker's Reported Model Portfolio Returns) from when he had money out of the markets over a decade ago!
I let the brinker folks handle my money via schwab, they sold my acct several times over just a few years buying nasdaq on the way down!
I'm better off with a handful of vanguard ETFs
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