Today, Lakshmann Achuthan appeared on Bloomberg TV and said we are still headed for a recession:
*Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.
* For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession".
* Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no."
Read more about this ongoing "disagreement": Lakshman and Bob in the Thunderdome. 2 men enter, one man leaves.
23 comments:
No matter how it turns out, Brinker will be able to spin it, that he was right all along.
Joey
Anonymous (Joey) said...
"No matter how it turns out, Brinker will be able to spin it, that he was right all along."
I don't think so. I bet he will do what he has done with other missed calls. He will simply IGNORE it.
Lak of ECRI is the one who will spin it. He has already started when he moved the time limit and even changed the way you measure recessions.
He was, and is, extremely arrogant and I will be happy when he blows this call as he already has IMO.
Flipper
I think ECRI is correct. I am seeing a contraction again with my clients in terms of their internal hiring. Several of the ones with > 10k headcounts are starting another round of resource actions, store closings, and retirement offers all aimed at merely reducing head count (i.e they let you go without regard for skill).
The nice things is, even though Romney will not benefit form the actual announcement of the recession in terms of his first election, he most likely will benefit from the perception he pulled us into recovery.
It will be interesting to see how he handles the long term unemployed given his Private Equity background and the duality of his Christian background.
Should be a fascinating Presidency to watch.
tfb
"Should be a fascinating Presidency to watch."
Maybe you should plan some other activity because there won't be ANY term for Romney. It is going to be an easy landslide for Obama.
But you're right Obama will take well-deserved credit for pulling us out of a bad economy.
Chicago
Ignore is the same as spinning it correct. You listen to Brinker down and it is like he never rode the whole bear market down. It is like his little world starts from September 2011.
Joey
Ignore is the same as spinning it correct. You listen to Brinker down and it is like he never rode the whole bear market down. It is like his little world starts from September 2011.
No it is more like the world started with his reduce your equity expose to 65% 2000 market call, ignore my advice to buy the QQQ, and forget I rode down the greatest bear market in everyone's lifetime and telling people to jump in at S&P500 1450(those folks are still underwater) but give me credit for saying jump in in Sept.
Da Brink is amazing...
tfb
Maybe you should plan some other activity because there won't be ANY term for Romney. It is going to be an easy landslide for Obama.
What are bunch of homosexuals somehow going to reproduce real fast and their children vote? I live in a predominately Hispanic community and they are not happy with the King of Queens. LULAC sent out a message last night praising the C- student known as Hussein Obama's courageous stance on gay marriage and received the largest backlash and unsubscribe rate in their existence.
I love it. His largest donors are gay and they were not donating so he threw this out and now the Machismo Latino culture is bailing on him.
LOL!!!!!
tfb
tfb -- your repulsive garbage post had no business on this thread. I am a bit surprised that our esteemed moderator chose to approve it IMHO. If she is to approve this banter, then equal garbage from the other side should also be allowed.
TFB was responding to the political statement by "Chicago." Which I assume is you....
As moderator, I went wrong in publishing that post to begin with since it was simply partisan garbage that has nothing to do with the subject.
But since I did publish your political opinion, others have a right to respond with theirs.
Next time, you may want to avoid the political declarations, then there won't be any in return that you don't like.
then equal garbage from the other side
Other Side, as in singular? That implies only two. My likely candidate in this race is Virgil Goode.
Read about Virgil
In the recent past I moderated some debates Virgil participated in and came away suitably impressed. He would make an President par excellent.
So as typical of liberals, you are 100% wrong.
tfb
I hate "repulsive garbage".
That's why I never listen to Brinker NOOMORE or ever resubscribed to his 6 page photocopied rag.
One thing I like about this thread is it rarely has the spiral down effect into bickering that most others on the Internet have. If comments on here are allowed to cross into bigotrey I will move on.
Back to the subject of all things Bronker. It seems Bob has more and more become a very strong contrary indicator. After somewhat stating that May was no reason to run away from the stock market, things seem to be going in the other direction.
An un-named anonymous said: "One thing I like about this thread is it rarely has the spiral down effect into bickering that most others on the Internet have. If comments on here are allowed to cross into bigotrey I will move on."
Since this is election year, I am going to make an executive decision right now that election-politics are not going to be part of this blog.
If Bob Brinker makes political comments or talks about candidates, I may report on it. If I do, then opposing views will be allowed -- even my own. :)
However, your mentioning "bigotry" inspires me to point out to you that "bigotry" is often in the eye of the beholder.
I hate bigots. I think they are repulsive and full of garbage, and they should move on.
Is there an election this year?
HB:
Fair enough. It is your blog, after all. There are lots of other places where people can hammer on each other.
I like reading TFB's posts, so I hope he doesn't go away, don't think he will.
-- Frankj
Mr. Pig asked if there was an election this year.
LOL! Well, I think one is planned. :)
FrankJ,
Why do you mention TFB? He wasn't the one made the "bigotry" comment.
Your're right, he didn't. It was the other guy who brought up bigotry (and spelled it wrong). I was thinking that if you went apolitical, tfb might cut back on his posts. Shouldn't make that assumption. He has worthwhile stuff to say in the investment vein.
-- Frankj
Right FrankJ....The Fluffy Bunny has a lot of investment wisdom. Perhaps we who appreciate him sharing it should be sure to let him know.....
I rarely send out e-mails before running them through spellcheck. Those humiliating feelings of going through grade school, junior high and high school are always close to my heart. It wouldn't be till I was close to 30 that I was given a test and told I was Dyslexic. This was great news to me because it explained why I was always considered the slow student, reading and writing was always difficult. Thoughts you put down on paper have no merit unless spelled correctly.
Of course living well is always the best revenge and although I never thought my life was vengeful, within less then a year of graduating high school I created and owned my own successful business. I did this three thousand miles away from where I was raised so no help from family. I've been self employed my entire adult life, never borrowed a dime except mortgages to buy real estate. Within a two years of leaving school I was making more money and probably had more self esteem then any teacher who used to mark up my papers with red ink and hand me what was usually less then a D for a grade. Many successful people in the arts are Dyslexic and one business man comes to mind, Richard Branson, so I guess I'm in good company.
The reason I was grateful for the beginning days of Brinker's broadcast was because he gave great advice for the independent investor. And being a independent person all my life it was a good fit.
The miss-speller on your Honey blog.
Richard in Santa Fe
Ms Honey stated, "Well, I think one (election) is planned. :)"
I certainly hope Jeff Christie will get off his @$$ and finally run for President.
He's the brainiest person around! He knows everything.
**It is going to be an easy landslide for Obama.**
On what do you base this?
Every poll says it's close!
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