October 9, 2011: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, Lynn Jimenez Fill-in Host Today

October 9, 2011....Bob Brinker did not host Moneytalk today. Lynn Jimenez, business reporter for KGO810 radio, was replacement host.

After pointing out that the stock market has been volatile, Lynn said: "Just a few months ago, you and I were talking about getting ready to take the plunge again. Instead, the market took the plunge."

Later in the program, Lynn said: "The third quarter ended a week ago Friday, I'm sure Bob commented on this last week.  Good riddance to that. It was down 12%.....That was the worst performance since '09. Then Monday, it lost more ground. The S&P dipped below 1100.....Stocks still down for the year. The S&P 500 down 9%." 

Several times today, Lynn showed that she not only doesn't listen to Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, but that she doesn't read Marketimer. It has been several weeks since Bob even mentioned  the stock market, and months since he expressed any opinions.  And Lynn  clearly does not know that Bob declared the stock market "attractive for purchase" at the S&P 500 level of 1129 on September 22nd.

Lynn went over some of the latest economic reports and said: "In the past several weeks, twenty of twenty-five economic indicators have come in stronger than expected. So reports of the economy's  demise have been exaggerated, as Mark Twain once said about his own death." 

She might have been referring to the ECRI prediction that the economy is going into recession. Bob agrees with Lynn on that. He has not forecast a recession.

Lynn's two major topics of the day were:  CEOs getting  millions of dollars when they are "shown the door," and the new $5 charge for Bank of America Debit Cards.   I'm not going to cover those topics. If you are interested in them, you can download the program from KGO810 radio in the program archives -- it's free!

Lynn's guest-speaker today was Gina Martin Adams, Senior Institutional Equity Strategist for Wells Fargo.

Gina said: "I see the market as kind of in the midst of a secular bear trend.  And if you look at former secular bear markets, you tend to have very large swings in prices, both to the up side and to the down side."

Lynn replied: "For the novices among us and there aren't an awful lot who listen to Bob Brinker who don't know what a secular bear is, but for those who don't, please explain that to us so we can pinpoint what you're doing." 

Gina said: "It's a long-term trend in which the market valuation falls....." 

Honey EC:  It's questionable whether Gina knows anything about cyclical bull market trends. She sure never mentioned them today. Brinker claims that the current market is in a cyclical bull within a secular bear.

And as I said before, Lynn obviously does not listen to Brinker. He has not discussed secular trends for years. The last  time he talked to a caller about secular bear markets was in 2007 just before he retroactively declared that the secular bear that started in 2000 had ended in 2006.

At that time, the market was going up so fast that it was beginning to look like his "cyclical bull market" was going to be taken out by a roaring bull market reaching well above previous all-time-highs and  breaking all the rules that he had laid out in Marketimer and on Moneytalk about cyclical/secular trends.  That would have made him look rather foolish. 

Of course, it was about that time that the mega-bear market started and continued until it bottomed in March 2009.  At that time, he declared the  "secular bear megatrend" on again:  

May, 2009 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Although it appeared to us that the secular bear megatrend that began in year-2000 had reached its conclusion, there is no question that the secular bear megatrend remains intact...." 

Three times today, Lynn advised a caller to consult a "certified financial planner." That is diametretically opposed to what Brinker recommends. He always recommends learning to be your own financial manager.

Matter of fact, I do not believe that Brinker is a "certified financial planner."  Here is what Bobbrinker.com says about him:  "Bob Brinker has more than twenty five years of investment management experience. He is the host of the weekend financial talk program MoneyTalk."

Experience does not equal "certified financial planner." If it does, I will soon qualify. :)

Bob Brinker's S&P target range in 2007:  

November 2007, Marketimer, Page 2; Paragraph 7; Brinker wrote: ".......the S&P 500 Index should rise at the least into the mid-1600's range next year, in our view."  

Bob Brinker's S&P target range in 2011:

March 2011, Marketimer, Page3; Paragraph 5; Brinker wrote: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to reach the low-to-mid 1400's range within the next year."  (That would have been March 2012, but now he is saying 2012, which would be up to December.)

Lynn's best quote of the day: "Steve (from Vacaville) Stop Me From Babbling!"

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