Firstly, in January, Bob Brinker added the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX). Moneytalk, February 20, 2011, caller-Josephine asked Brinker about the Wellesley Fund. From my summary of the call:
Josephine followed up by asking Brinker if the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX) was going to be "in the fixed part of his portfolio" or was it going to be "in the equity part of his portfolio."The Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund has been doing okay since Brinker recommended it. Possibly because it is mostly invested in bonds and dividend paying stocks. It was priced at $21.70 when he made the recommendation, and today it closed at $22.25. It also pays a 3.2% dividend according to the Vanguard website.
Brinker replied: "That's a hybrid. We're using that as a hybrid. So the answer to your question is yes and yes. It is an income related security..... And that fund has done a great job in a conservative realm. That is a fund that is 62% in fixed income securities, and 38% in income-related securities, such as dividend paying stocks. So that makes it a hybrid........Personally, and I've said this before in the past, I think it's a well-managed fund."
The second fund that Brinker added this year was the Double Line Total Return Fund (DTLNX), which is managed by Jeffrey Gundlach. Moneytalk, May 15, 2011, caller-Bill asked Brinker about the new fund. From my summary of the call:
* Caller Bill from Wisconsin said: "In your last issue of Marketimer, you made a change in the income portfolio, going to a brand new fund. Double Line Total Return and it looks to me like....."
Brinker interrupted: "Bill did you read page 3 of that issue? ....I've explained in there why I selected that fund. It's right there."
Bill continued: "Yes, I have it right it front of me. Let me ask a couple of questions that aren't there. One, it's a very short life fund. It's only been around a year or less, and it has a higher expense ratio. And I assume the rating isn't as good as the funds that it replaces. And I question what the duration would be on that fund."
Brinker replied: "Now this is a change that was made in the income portfolio. Now if you check that data that I published in the letter, you will see that I published the duration. Did you see that? You don't see any information on the duration?"
Bill: "No sir."
Brinker said: "That's because it was effective on the 10th of May. Let me explain why you didn't find the duration, and you will find the duration. The duration is in the table on page 7, but that table does not include the fund because the change wasn't made on April 30th. Everything in the newsletter for May is as of April 30. So what I've done is, I've stated in that recommendation to make those changes in the income portfolio in page 7 ..... that those changes take place on the close May 10th. So they happened last Tuesday....We implemented those changes..... for performance purposes......So when we publish the June investment letter, on page 7, you will see the duration of that fund in there........"The Double Line website lists the fund duration at 3.35. The fund sold for $11.08 on May 10th, when Brinker first recommended it. It closed at $11.27 today. Its yield is about 8.43%.
Brinker continued: "Now as to why I selected that fund. I selected that fund because I really like that manager. I think that manager has really outstanding talent. Actually, I stipulate that on page 3 of the newsletter, that I like the manager. And that was the reason that I selected that fund. Now although what you said is true that it's a relatively new fund. It started in the spring of 2010, its done very well its first year out there. Now here's the thing, that manager had a long-term track record at his prior fund. A record of over ten years of excellence in income management at his prior fund. I looked at that record, looked at what he's done the first year in his new fund since he's gone out on his own, and was very pleased at the data I was looking at. And that was the reason that I selected it.....Remember though, if you see a recommendation that doesn't work with you investment, don't buy it...... But I have to go with what I believe in the investment letter because of performance tracking.....and that was the analysis that I based that recommendation on. Good call, Bill. I appreciate it. This is Moneytalk."
My sister-in-law and brother are vacationing in McCall, Idaho. She sent this picture of McCall Harbor. Click to enlarge - very beautiful:
78 comments:
Things just keep getting worse in the job market. Now inflation is rearing its ugly head. Of course, anyone who buys food or gasoline knows it made an appearance some time ago:
Jobless Claims, Inflation Rise, Manufacturing Gets Weaker
Published: Thursday, 15 Sep 2011 | 8:37 AM ET
Applications for unemployment benefits continued to rise in the past week, while inflation pushed higher and a key manufacturing index weakened.
The weekly jobless claims number, which is closely watched as an indicator for employment trends, unexpectedly rose 11,000 to 428,000, well ahead of estimates of 411,000.
The consumer price index, meanwhile, gained 0.4 percent when including volatile food and energy prices, after an increase of 0.5 percent in July. The so-called core CPI, though, gained 0.2 percent, which was in line with expectations.
Consumers paid more for a range of goods and services last month, pushing up inflation and squeezing Americans' purchasing power.
CNBC.com
Inflation is still a non-starter and will be until the job market improves.
President Barack Obama has proposed a $447 billion job-creation package. He wants to cut Social Security taxes for workers, extend unemployment benefits, cut taxes for small businesses and spend more federal money to build roads, bridges and other public works projects.
Obama's package will undoubtedly be blocked at every turn by obstructionist Republicans who's only goal is to make him a one-term president. They should be ashamed.
So the president has proposed another half-trillion dollars in government spending.
The National debt is now at $14.5 Trillion and climbing. The deficit is the largest its ever been.
Yes, I see your point. Those evil Tea-Party Republicans who want to put on the brakes and let the Milton Freidman free-market actually save the nation, instead of letting the repeatedly destructive Keynesian-spending send us into oblivion, should be ashamed, very ashamed.
I mean, what's a half billion here and there? Solyndra!
"...let the Milton Freidman free-market actually save the nation..."
The free market has done NOTHING to create jobs. Companies are sitting on billions in cash because they are afraid of the FREE MARKET.
If you depended only on the free market crazies like Milton Friedman, this country would be in a depression rather than just a recession.
Green jobs now, green jobs forever!
Here's another great idea. Let's hire a bunch of people to dig holes.
Then once we have holes all over the place, somebody will have to hire somebody to fill them in.
Each hole digger job we create creates another to fill in the hole. Almost as good as green jobs.
Yay socialism!
Where's Paul Krugman when you need him.
We need him to explain that if we had given Solyndra 1.5 billion instead of 0.5 billion it might have had a chance, instead it was doomed by cheapskates.
President Obama anticipated Republican resistance to his jobs program, but he is now meeting increasing pushback from his own party. Many Congressional Democrats, smarting from the fallout over the 2009 stimulus bill, say there is little chance they will be able to support the bill as a single entity, citing an array of elements they cannot abide.
“I think the American people are very skeptical of big pieces of legislation,” Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, said in an interview Wednesday, joining a growing chorus of Democrats who prefer an à la carte version of the bill despite White House resistance to that approach. “For that reason alone I think we should break it up.”
Some are unhappy about the specific types of companies, particularly the oil industry, that would lose tax benefits. “I have said for months that I am not supporting a repeal of tax cuts for the oil industry unless there are other industries that contribute,” said Senator Mary L. Landrieu (D) of Louisiana.
A small but vocal group dislikes the payroll tax cuts for employees and small businesses. “I have been very unequivocal,” said Representative Peter A. DeFazio, a Democrat from Oregon. “No more tax cuts.”
“I have serious questions about the level of spending that President Obama proposed,” said Senator Joe Manchin III, a Democrat from West Virginia, in a statement issued right after Mr. Obama spoke to a joint session of Congress last week.
Representative Heath Shuler, another North Carolina Democrat, said Congress should tame the deficit before approving new spending for job programs. “The most important thing is to get our fiscal house in order,” said Mr. Shuler, a leader of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. “Then we can talk about other aspects of job creation.”
Big brave socialist-anonymous said: "The free market has done NOTHING to create jobs. Companies are sitting on billions in cash because they are afraid of the FREE MARKET."
WRONG! Companies, entrepreneurs and small businesses are "sitting on billions in cash" because they are waiting for the next shoe to fall from Washington DC.
The free market has not been allowed to operate unfettered for many years, and these last three years, it has been stifled, smothered and choked to death in many cases.
They took over the auto industry, slammed real estate by forcing lenders to make loans to people who could never pay. They choose winners and losers like shooting fish in a barrel.
Take a look at oil, coal and heck, even some little girls were forbidden from running a lemonade stand....
Now enough of this crap for one day....Go harass some other blog, unless you have something to say about Bob Brinker.
I'm confused, are we dealing with a number of different anonymous posters here? Just wondering.
-- Frankj
FrankJ,
I think everyone is confused, including me. I think based on message content, there are several who are posting as anonymous.
But here's the new way I'm going to handle it:
Posters can still use anonymous, but if anonymous posts are not signed, then they will not be published.
I'm confused, are we dealing with a number of different anonymous posters here? Just wondering.
-- Frankj
No Frank. Some of us think he's the same person who has harassed anyone with message boards that talk about Bob Brinker's mistakes and inability to time the stock market. These are the boards the Brinker's were unable to close by threatening legal action for talking about "proprietary information" in his snoozeletter as if everyone signed a confidential nondisclosure agreement before they read a copy.
Could someone be paid to divert the topic to politics to bring down the message board popularity and keep the topic off Brinker?
Note how boards that allow these crazy posts quickly fill up with hundreds of posts unrelated to Bob Brinker's inability to time the markets or add value.
Bozobob,
While your premise about someone trying to keep the conversation away from Bob Brinker, and you are entitled to think whatever you want, you are totally wrong when you say that everyone who posts as anonymous is the same person. I happen to know that is not true.
Posters can still use anonymous, but if anonymous posts are not signed, then they will not be published.
Yeah, you did that in the past and he made up multiple new names. Every time someone catches him in a lie about Brinker or politics, he'd get a new one.
IF "friends" who also post with the anonymous feature really want to help you, then they might take the time to register an account like the wise pig has done so you can turn off the anonymous annoyance feature.
Does anyone here have any inverse ETF funds?
I'm thinking of putting some money into an inverse S&P 500 ETF (SH) and an inverse QQQ ETF.
These would be 1X inverse. I don't want to use leverage because I want to miniminze the tracking error. I may hold these funds for a number of months and the tracking error with leverage seems to be larger over time than without leverage.
I'm thinking the market is due for another tumble.
Bill
Honey, a clarification please.
Your reference to the Marketholder off the books income fund. Mr B has another portfolio for his readers in addition to the three model portfolios? Or is this income fund indeed portfolio 3?
If so, why "off the books" since he reports the performance (when favorable) for all to see?
Thank you in advance.
I would like someone to explain why
he thinks an economy should continue to grow quarter after quarter, year after year,especially
in view of history. Insofar as
regulation is concerned kindly recall the robber barrons,teapot
dome scandal,trading with the enemy
licensing act, the S & L scandal
and more recently, credit default
swaps. Add the virtually unknown
record of labor history,the railroads shipping bonanza crushing
the small farmer,Pullman,sweatshops,child labor,Haymarket riots,coal mine
accidents,industrial explosions,
nuclear accidents. Regulation?
Human nature is such that when it
comes to finance laissez-faire
ain't gonna fly. In my own experience I find alot of sneakiness:the $19.99 pricing,
smaller portions in packaging
that had larger portions,banks
adding all kinds of fees,produce
turning rotten a few days after
purchase,insurancae companies
attempting to weasel out of paying
claims,and most egregious, the plethora of false advertising not
to mention the constant bombbardment of all kinds of
advertising geared to the level
of the lesser among us. Regulation? What got us into the
economic collapse of 2008?
Obama's package will undoubtedly be blocked at every turn by obstructionist Republicans who's only goal is to make him a one-term president. They should be ashamed.
Ain't that the TRUTH, ANONie!
Not only ashamed, they should probably be jailed for allowing the POS to be elected the first time.
Look how the country has suffered when they let an incompetent Chicago street thug pretend that he knows something, but actually knows and does NUTTIN.
"While your premise about someone trying to keep the conversation away from Bob Brinker, and you are entitled to think whatever you want, you are totally wrong when you say that everyone who posts as anonymous is the same person. I happen to know that is not true."
I think it's funny that Bozo spends so much time diverting the board by talking about somebody diverting the board.
And the beat goes on. LOL
Mo Bobtalk
He wants to cut Social Security taxes for workers, extend unemployment benefits, cut taxes for small businesses and spend more federal money to build roads, bridges and other public works projects.
Really with the exception of the tax breaks he already appropriated money to do all of the above - where did it go? It did not increase jobs now did it? Oh Millions and millions to shore up union pension t GM and teacher's pension and jobs, oh and hundreds of million to his green company fraud contributor...and who was the supposed watchdog over all of this - Biden!!! Remember Obama personally instructed him to oversee where that money went and he channeled it to campaign contributors and the money just disappeared.
Oh yes and way to stabilize Social Security and Medicare - by cutting the funding. Brilliant!!!!
This is all just a set-up to seize private pensions.
tfb
HB said, "Things just keep getting worse in the job market."
And yet the market keeps chugging along. With all the bad news today, the market managed to tack on another 186 point gain! Talk about climbing a wall of worry!
So if fundamental news will not bring down the market, what will it take...if anything. Well, there are the technicals which are approaching critical points. For instance:
- The Dow is approaching the downward slanting 50-day moving avg.
- It's also approaching overbought territory (slow stochastic at 70%; 80 is overbought).
- It's less than 300 points from a minor top that defines the consolidation area it has traded in since early August.
So, it may be just a matter of days before the market turns around. If not, I guess I'll have to assume the bull is back on track. Not just yet, though.
Mark Linker
Gold Stock Upgrades and Downgrades
http://www.goldalert.com/gold-stock-upgrades/
Gold Stock Upgrades and Downgrades | GoldAlert
www.goldalert.com
WRONG! Companies, entrepreneurs and small businesses are "sitting on billions in cash" because they are waiting for the next shoe to fall from Washington DC.
Exactly. I am sitting on about 1.5M in cash right now, I will not hire and I have emancipated almost every employee I could over the last 2 years and filled those positions with contractors (many of whom were former employees).
This was done because Obama is mandating via my employees benefits how I run my company. Now we are lean and mean, I hire what is needed and pay hourly for exactly what I need. And I sleep better knowing that all the regulatory burdens and costs are now neatly contained in one competitive hourly contractors rate.
If I thought Obama would get reelected or if he does the cash will vanish as I will invest it in long term capital assets that I view as extremely undervalued. I have those asset picked out and with 40 days I am sure the cash will be gone and untouchable by Obama.
Moreover I am not alone in this. Even scarier for the long term employment prospects is where the construction industry is looking. With interest rates so low many of the larger builders and contractors in my area are looking at robotics. In the past with human labor available at very reasonable rates robotics meant a huge investment in capital that could end up in the owner's pocket, now it is looking as a good time to make the investment and automate rather than expose yourself to the Government mandated costs of labor going forward.
One local builder is going to prefabs only in the future in robotic factories. He will never hire back his workforce. At the peak he employed about 380 locals, those jobs are now gone forever. Under automation he figures he will need about 35 employees, a coupe of techs, a few engineers, surveyors, legal and salesmen and warehouse space.
The motivation - fear of Government mandates highlighted by Obama-care. The solution is easy - get rid of the employees. Technology makes it fairly easy even in construction and agriculture.
Obama has royally screwed the U.S. worker by making employee elimination a priority of many.
Hey, enjoy your leader. Makes no difference to me...
tfb
"Obama has royally screwed the U.S. worker by making employee elimination a priority of many"
That's right, fire the employees and hire illegals, you don't have to jump through all those hoops.
It's not your fault, Obama made you do it.
Note to Mr.Pig
I am not making his up. This currency actually exists.
Hi Bob Thanks for taking my call. Long time listener and Marketimer subscriber. I live in the Berkshire region of Massachusetts. We have abandoned the US dollar as the reserve currency and have issued our own money. We call them Berkshares. What do you think of this and will you accept them for my subscription renewal? I will hang up and take your answer off the air
http://www.berkshares.org/index.htm
Bill asks:
Does anyone here have any inverse ETF funds?
I'm thinking of putting some money into an inverse S&P 500 ETF (SH) and an inverse QQQ ETF.
These would be 1X inverse. I don't want to use leverage because I want to miniminze the tracking error. I may hold these funds for a number of months and the tracking error with leverage seems to be larger over time than without leverage.
I'm thinking the market is due for another tumble.
Bill
Take a look here. A group Da Brink himself use to recommend.
http://www.rydex-sgi.com/
Hey honey do yo have that post where Brinker called himself "Da Brink"...that one always cracks me up.
tfb
That's right, fire the employees and hire illegals, you don't have to jump through all those hoops.
No one who has read this blog fro a while would EVER think I would knowingly employ an illegal alien under any circumstance.
tfb
Birdbrain asked: "Your reference to the Marketholder off the books income fund. Mr B has another portfolio for his readers in addition to the three model portfolios? Or is this income fund indeed portfolio 3?
If so, why "off the books" since he reports the performance (when favorable) for all to see?"
Hi Birdbrain,
Bob Brinker does have another portfolio in addition to his three model portfolios. He used to call it a "fixed-income portfolio" when it contained only a small group of bond mutual funds. Now he calls it "Income Fund" because he added stock to it via the Vanguard Wellesley Fund.
Until January 10, 2011, the portfolio consisted of weightings in VFIIX, VFRSTX, VWEHX and VIPSX. That is when he sold all of the VIPSX (TIPS) and reduced Ginnie Mae Fund down from 40% to a 25% weighting.
In those places, he bought 25% Wellesley Income Fund and increased VWEHX to 25%.
The reason I say it is "off-the-books" is because he does not usually publish the performance record of the portfolio. To my knowledge, the only time he ever even reported it in Marketimer was this January.
He claimed it returned 7% in 2011 -- but we all know what a great year 2010 was for bonds, especially high yield and Ginnie Maes.
Another reason it is off-the-books is because Hulbert Financial Digest does not rank it. Hulbert will sometimes publish the year-end numbers, but he uses only the three model portfolios for ranking Marketimer.
Brinker has one more Marketimer Portfolio that he calls the "Active/Passive." It is beyond simplistic, but he sometimes talks about it on Moneytalk like it's a big deal.
It consists of 80% in the total stock market (either Vanguard Funds or ETFs) and 20% in Vanguard International Funds.
He regularly points out that all of his portfolios are fully invested.
I often speak of his off-the-books list of individual stocks. He is NEVER held accountable for anything on that list, but he uses it for bragging rights if something on it happens to do well.
Hope this has been helful. If I confused you, just let me know. :)
The reason all of this hokum is so ridiculous is because his claim to fame is market-timing. But on second thought, it would be more ridiculous if his claim to fame was stock picking. LOL!
However, to give credit where it is due, he does a great job of picking mutual funds.
TFB asked: "Hey honey do yo have that post where Brinker called himself "Da Brink"...that one always cracks me up."
I'll see if I can find it for you tomorrow. I just got in from a late meeting and my down pillow calls. :)
Pigsanon said...
You still adore me so much that you have to imp me, huh?
Do you still dream about me, freakjob?
Most market timers have no clue as to what is going on. I actually have been in the econommcs and finance field for over 40 years. Over the years I have found very few consistently accurate analysts. The one that has proven to be the best is Shep Wave. Also, they are the only analhyst who actually leaves years of archived reports available to be read by anyone. The rest of the market analysts always hide their analysis because they were wrong. Shep Wave has been consistently correct. Now, it should be admitted that perhaps it is because the are correct in their analysis that they leave the reports available. Either way one cannot argue with a positive track record.
Sheppie
HB said, "I just got in from a late meeting"
Ok, let's call it a..."meeting"! But WE know! :-)
In my post to Birdbrain, I said: "He claimed it returned 7% in 2011 -- but we all know what a great year 2010 was for bonds, especially high yield and Ginnie Maes."
I made a typo. It should read: "He claimed it returned 7% in 2010...."
Sorry....
Oooh, Dan....I can't fool you, can I? :)
Dow 11,500 just may be the level that proves to be the barrier for the market. It has just reached overbought levels, and is approaching that downtrending 50-day MA.
So for better or worse, I'm adding to my "short" position via SDS, bringing it up to a "medium" level. Here's where "the rubber meets the road"! (Yeah, I just made that phrase up. Pretty clever, eh?)
Just in on CNBC:
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Total Return Fund, found GUILTY of breach of fiduciary duty!!
Nice guy that Brinker likes there, huh?
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Total Return Fund, found GUILTY of breach of fiduciary duty!!
Nice guy that Brinker likes there, huh?
He probably liked the guys style and gall.
tfb
Bloomberg News
Jeffrey Gundlach A jury said Friday that star bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach violated the fiduciary duty he owed his former employer, Trust Co. of the West, and stole trade secrets from the unit of French bank Société Générale SA, according to people familiar with the verdict.
But the jury didn’t award any damages to TCW for the charges in the firm’s favor related to Mr. Gundlach’s breach of fiduciary duty and to his interference with TCW’s business. A judge will decide later on the amount of any damages for findings of theft of trade secrets, the people familiar with the verdict said.
The jury in Superior Court of California, Los Angeles, also awarded $66.7 million to Mr. Gundlach and his colleagues for back wages, according to a spokesman for DoubleLine.
Michael Cahill, TCW’s general counsel, said the firm was “gratified” by the jury’s verdict.
TCW fired Mr. Gundlach in late 2009. TCW has said Mr. Gundlach and some of his aides stole information about clients and other confidential materials to set up a rival firm.
Mr. Gundlach has said he didn’t use information from TCW at his new firm, DoubleLine Capital LP. He also sued TCW, saying the firm plotted to fire him to save money. Mr. Gundlach also said TCW deprived him of hundreds of millions of dollars in fees he’s owed.
Mark Hulbert writes about market-timers and which kind (buy-and-hold or bears) fared better in the "Lehman bankruptcy" bear:
Mark Hulbert Archives
Sept. 16, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
What market timers learned from Lehman
Commentary: Investment lessons of Lehman’s bankruptcy
Read column at Marketwatch
Jeff says: I am not making his up. This currency actually exists.
re:Berkshares
I certainly hope my social security is paid in those. They probably are worth more than Dollars and Euros.
Honeybee wrote "However, to give credit where it is due, he does a great job of picking mutual funds."
Yeah, that TEFQX was a real winner. You may want to read Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s TEFQX Advice to refresh your memory of the last full page, multi newsletter fund recommendation I remember from Brinker.
Brinker, Feb 8, 2000 MT: TEFQX=$15.99; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund is the newest addition to the Marketimer No-Load Fund Recommended List on Page four...... We have ALWAYS viewed books, toys and on-line auctions as the tip of the iceberg for electronic business. We believe business-to-business transactions will greatly surpass retail e-commerce including software development tools, database providers, hardware manufacturers and service providers."
March 7, 2001 MT: TEFQX=$3.93; "We are removing Firsthand e-Commerce Fund from the Recommended List. We rate the fund a "hold" at these levels... we expect the shares to recover value over time."
When was the last time he gave a full page write recommending an equity mutual fund in his newsletter?
docinthehouse
The award for the best market timer EVER goes to mark hulbert of course, let me count the ways:
1) 2007, djia @ 14k, he says "djia to 16k"
2) 2008, citibank @ $35, he says "show me, who is a contrarian, who is buying", citibank now @ $4.00. Of course it had a 7X reverse split, so its value is around $4.00
3) the "best market timer" is at it again, as if nothing had happened and now charging people for "financial advice" with his hulbert financial digest. I"m sure that he had many other flubs, but there comes a point where you just stop reading garbage....
4) I did not follow ANY of his advice mentioned above #1-#3, LOL!!
Honey, thanks for the info. Three model portfolios, one income fund and an active/passive portfolio. Mr B needs to fill up his monthly letter, so dazzle the folks with numbers.
Quite a character, this Mr Gundlach. If half of the unsavory claims by his previous employer TCW are true, sounds like an HBO movie.
But as someone on the radio says,
"it's all about the money."
as usual the piglet (AnonymousPIG) is off the mark by an entire presidency.
G.W. Bush was "in charge" for 8 years of stupidity not a peep from slop for brains, then without thinking twice piglet blames the guy who came in to clean up the mess left by the idiot in chief Bush. Obama expertly stopped in its tracks and reversed out of a once in a generation Armageddon trade which would have left the US with headline unemployment of 20+% - saved the US auto industry which would not exist if left to the republicans who said ah let it go - yeah right just like the domino effect of Lehman. All the babbling going on here figured someone ought to tell the truth about what Republican policy led to... a market crash!!!!
Helloooo my old friend, Smile. :)
I love your comments because the fact that they appear on my blog is proof positive that I truly believe in free speech. LOL!!
Honeybee, where did your friend from days of ol' alan go? I thought he was posting at this old bobi site: ol fb bobi link http://www.facebook.com/board.php?uid=12649953860
Birdbrain,
Exactly. Brinker gives himself plenty of material to choose from to "dazzle" his audience.
I am convinced that he depends A LOT on turnover. And I can tell you why I'm convinced of that: Because I have read every issue of Marketimer since January 2000.....nuff said....
And yes, Gundlach is a real piece of work if he did what he was convicted of doing. Shysterism that got exposed.
But shysterism is shysterism, whether it makes it into a court of law or simply gets exposed on a blog.
Hi Honeybee,
I actually stopped by to ask you my last question about alan... thought you would get a kick out of that seeing as how you two went back and forth - , got side tracked & unfortunately began reading some of the drivel posted - one in particular caught my eye so - you know me I had to respond since it seemed most here accepted the drivel as fact not the actual fiction it really is... :)
i think alan must have posted maybe upwards of 10,000 posts on that linked site... poof I sure can't find it, maybe its me :)
After making an OUTSTANDING point, Kirk said: "When was the last time he gave a full page write recommending an equity mutual fund in his newsletter?"
All I can say about myself is duhhhhh......LOL! What was I thinking. I should be more careful when REACHING for something good to say about Bob Brinker.
I should have said that he has some fairly good mutual funds in his model portfolios, but those "off-the-books" much-touted ones are horrific.
This is an apropos reminder in light of Jeffrey Gundlach' (DoubleLIne Total Return) conviction today. Brinker said the same things about him as he did about Kevin Landis.
The answer to your question is, as you pointed out year-2000 when he touted TEFQX just before it dropped off the cliff.
Here are some excerpts from the great article you linked to. I recommend that anyone who wants to know the whole story read the article.
Kirk wrote:
"TEFQX is the First Hand eCommerce Fund managed by Kevin Landis first recommended by Bob Brinker in January 2000.
(SNIP)
Sometimes he gives terrible advice "off the books" where he'll spend as much as a page of his "Marketimer" newsletter on the recommendation but if it goes bad, he simply stops talking about it. This is one example.
Originally posted May 16th, 2007 here (update 1/7/08: It seems "someone" had the forums about Bob Brinker removed from Suite101....)
Post #883. May 16, 2007 2:16 PM at Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz 2
» honeyoneohone wrote: - Another Bob Brinker Off the Books RecommendationThat Went South
In one of Will's post at the Free Forum he made this comment:
"I recall retired sorts were going crazy on his site with Junior hyping the B2B sector and stocks in the fall of 99 and spring of 2000. Brinker and his adoration of TEFQX and Landis, the fund manager likely caused many people to bet too heavily on that terrible idea that he just hid rather than ever closed out."
Kirk posted the following information about Bob Brinker's 5% recommendation for TEFQX, which later lost 90% and was placed on hold but never closed:
TEFQX Write-up in January & February 2000 Marketimers:
.
Brinker, Jan 8, 2000 MT TEFQX=$15.40; "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund, (888-883-3863) is added to page four of the Recommended list this month. We will include a writeup (sic) on this fund in the February Marketimer. For now, we would limit investments in this fund to 5%, and this 5% would be part of our revised 25% overall United States equity weighting. This fund is expected to be volatile, therefore it is appropriate only for very high risk tolerance investors."
(SNIP)
March 7, 2001 MT: TEFQX=$3.93; "We are removing Firsthand e-Commerce Fund from the Recommended List. We rate the fund a "hold" at these levels... we expect the shares to recover value over time."
Smile,
Yes, Allan Coleman and I never quite saw eye to eye about Bob Brinker. LOL!
As you said, he used to post at that Facebook site. He followed Patrick (Stock Tiger) when he and Kirk no longer saw eye to eye. :)
I think Patrick has pretty much closed all of his sites, including the Pajama Trader at Facebook. Is that correct?
I checked the link that you posted and I see that Allan Coleman made his last post on September 9th.
I sure hope he is alright because it isn't like him to let even two days go by without posting Ginnie Mae and High Yield closing numbers. LOL!
I know he travels back and forth between his home in Alaska and Hawaii, but that never seemed to keep him offline for more than a few hours.
BTW: Did you know that Allan and Pig are BFFs?
I had no idea about the BFFs, but it probably fits in some distorted twisted logic, birds or pigs of a feather and all.
I can't even get to the AC posting site, maybe I was defriended LOL... oh well guess I will have to do without - how will I ever manage? I used to ck it every so often to catch up on weed wacking trip tips :).
I think the pajama site is still up, when I accepted you and kirk as friends, I guess that ticked off someone. I think I wound up dropping that group in an effort to declutter.
Smile,
I'm wondering if something else isn't going on. I think that site that Allan posts on is an open site, but I could be wrong.
If it isn't open, I sure don't know how I could see his posts because I never asked to join Patrick's Group.
When he left Kirk, Patrick asked me to follow him and (don't tell Allan this LOL!) Patrick even offered to let me have a Bob Brinker thread at his Facebook Group.
I didn't follow him and told him I didn't approve of him copying Kirk's Group -- he never cared for me after that. I don't know why. :)
I've never told that to anyone before (except Kirk)....
Alan Coleman recently moved and his new board can be found at...
http://bobi-refugees.proboards.com/index.cgi
HTH
smile_0 (current political IQ=0) vomits out his usual talking points that he learned from Politico or Huff-n-Puff, and still makes no sense.
If he ever did make any sense, and not blame Bush for everything from the weather to sporting losses, people would think he lost his mini mind.
AAR, leave my best friend Allan alone. He's probably chopping weeds up in Homer to stay fit.
Hey Smile, why don't you develop a solar panel that costs $6 to make and sell it for $3. I betcha you could clear a half a Billion easily!
(((ROAR))) You Libs that are CLEANING up from President Bush are a real riot.....but you are cleaning up the big bucks!
as usual pig is delusional, making absolutely no sense what so ever. All he has to do is answer one question - who was the idiot president in charge when the following occurred?:
1) we got hit by one of the worst terrorist attacks ever on 9/11/01 - 3k civilians killed.
2) we went got into 2 wars without raising a dime to pay for them... just put a couple trillion on the ol' US debt card - maybe we could sell some of those WMDs that we never found, and maybe leave to the next president the killing of OBL who escaped the then idiot in chief at Bora Bora. 4+k US soldiers dead in these wars to bring to justice 1 person that idiot in chief towards the end did not give much thought about.
3) Medicare part D was passed & not paid for - another liberal program from the republicans intended to buy votes
4) lax regulatory environment allowing unreserved swaps, cdo bundling of junk paper, subprime, alt A etc. setting up for a house of cards which would start the Atrade (shortened Armageddon since so pig could pronounce).
5) Lehman collapse - which brought down the house of cards and led to 750,000 jobs lost a month
A 0 intellect pig would say Obama was president, and where stupidity was celebrated in this country slop for brains would have a handful of followers. Truth reigns high in US and we all know all this happened under the worst President in history G. W. Bush.
denial should be in Pigs lexicon but he probably thinks it is a river in Egypt.
Smile1
I am very happy with some of the things that are happening under Obama's leadership.
Tuesday afternoon, even as polls remained open in congressional elections in New York and Nevada, high-level Democratic donors and strategists gathered on a conference call. A participant in the discussion told Politico that the mood was “awful.” “People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” he added.
That was before the election results came in. In Nevada, the Republican crushed a top-flight female Democratic candidate by 22 points. In New York, the seat that once belonged to Geraldine Ferraro, Chuck Schumer and Anthony Weiner went to Republican Bob Turner -- the first time it has gone Republican since 1923. A liberal strategist put a rosy spin on it: “The mine hasn’t collapsed, but the loss in New York is definitely a dead canary.”
In both races, the Democrats used their trump card: scaring seniors by telling them the GOP wants to take away their Medicare and Social Security. It didn’t work.
This came against a backdrop of abysmal poll numbers showing Obama’s approval falling with every constituency, including Democrats, Independents, Hispanics and African-Americans. That might be why congressional Democrats are openly balking at his must-pass stimulus do-over.
HTH,
Thanks for posting Allan Coleman's new website.
While I don't really know what happened, it looks like Patrick folded up his tent, took his marbles and went away.
I wish Allen well with his independent venture. I see that he is still promoting Bob Brinker in spite of having suffered major financial losses because of following Brinker's advice.
He's also a big fan of Sy Harding. Sy has some loyal fans, but in my opinion, charges way too much for "subscriber" advice.
Hey Smile
Who was president when
1) Government spending requires borrowing 40 cents for every dollar spent?
2) %US National Debt passed $14.7T?
3) US National debt per taxpayer passed 131,000?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
4) Unemployment remained above 9% two years after a recession ended despite the government spending out the wazoo to try and create jobs?
5) Created a national health care plan that is so bad he had to give special exemption from it to his political union hacks?
6) CUT taxes MORE than Bush... yet continues to blame Bush for low taxes?
7) Cut taxes on the Rich MORE THAN BUSH (Buffett gets that payroll tax savings too) yet still blames Bush.
8) Had complete control of house and senate for the first two years yet continues to blame Bush for his failures?
tick... tick... tick... we await your reply.
4) lax regulatory environment allowing unreserved swaps, cdo bundling of junk paper, subprime, alt A etc. setting up for a house of cards which would start the Atrade (shortened Armageddon since so pig could pronounce).
You have entered the no spin zone. Three pieces of legislation enabled this.
1. The Community Reinvestment act created the sub prime loan market.
2. The repeal of Glass Stegall allowed Investment banks to merge with regular banks.
3. The Commodity Futures Modernization act legalized swaps cmos etc.
Bob Brinker has stated all of this on Moneytalk. Here is your problem. Brinker noted that all three were signed into law by William Jefferson Clinton.
Bill O
An interesting perspective on oil company stocks and Suncor in particular.
In the September issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker's "upgraded" Suncor (SU) to: "buy under $33 as the shares have returned to an attractive purchase area in our view. Suncor Energy plans to increase oil production from its Alberta, Canada operations by up to then percent a year over the next decade......"
Seeking Alpha: Suncor with decades of growth ahead
It's important to remember this is one of Brinker's "no official accountability" recommendations.
Smile of subzero political savvy says:denial should be in Pigs lexicon but he probably thinks it is a river in Egypt.
I took a 4 day cruise on it once, and NOOBODY was a fan of the LOOSER Obama.
I think you are stuck in the past Smile. President GeorgeBush (one of the finest ever) has been gone for almost 3 years. I can understand your confusion, since the LOSER that you voted for still thinks George Bush is president. This guy can't even brew a decent beer n the White House, he's sooo STOOPID.
Pretty soon you'll be telling people that you still follow brinker, and we'll know that you are stuck on stupid.
Hey, didja know that the old Easy Bake ovens are going to be worth zillions now? They had to redesign it with a dangerous heating element since Algore got 100w light bulbs banned. Can you imagine a kid trying to cook with a mercury filled squiggley bulb?
You Libs are TOTAL geniuses, let me tell ya.
Bill O,
catchup!
jeffchristie and I had this conversation already re: the causes of the melt down.
If you want you can reference the discussion at this hyperlink: Foreclosure Phil
The discussion date was June 9, 2011 6:11 AM and starts with Jeff saying:
"Smile
I would like to go back to square one and see if we can agree on what government actions brought about the loss of 8 millions jobs, back there in 2008-2009. Bob Brinker has stated many time that the repeal of the Glass Stegall was one of the major problems..."
and ends with me saying:
"So again I think my best line in my previous post was - "To blame Obama for the mess Bush left is like blaming Leonardo DiCaprio for the Titanic sinking - it just doesn't compute. Bush left 1+ trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye could see." Was he solely responsible - no but he gets a big slice of the blame along with his buddy Phil Gramm and the Fed.
June 9, 2011 9:17 AM"
I remember Smile. Welcome, it's good to have a little balance around this pig sty once in a while.
There are too many personal attacks and not enough political discussion.
smileagain
SubZeroSmile says: and ends with me saying:
It should end with you saying "I'd like to apologize for my abnormal behavior in knocking President George Bush and his Father, President George Bush, two of the finest presidents we've ever had.
I get these manic depressive episodes and make no sense when I support a total LOSER like Obama_the _Failure, who has accomplished absolutely nothing for our fine country, other than keep some golf courses floating.
I'm so ashamed of it, I come here hoping that the Glorious Pig will pity me, forgive me, and lead me to the path of salvation.
You can tell by my recent posts that I'm now humble and chastised by the most learned people who have been correct for the last 3 years. Pity me, and forgive me."
pig SOS,
remember when I challenged you with this:
"I don't normally suffer fools so I'm going to have to give you a couple of tests to see if in fact you are a fool:
1) take your 1st fool test
==
Tell the truth you were stuck on stupid for almost an hour, most likely the only thing that got u off of SOS was someone must have called you for a "Deliverance" lunch - squeal like a pig.
Am I spelling your name wrong?
Is it Senile_1?
Do you repeat yourself at most threads, or just here?
Pig_SLAP
As Anonymous posted:
"I remember Smile. Welcome, it's good to have a little balance around this pig sty once in a while.
There are too many personal attacks and not enough political discussion.
smileagain"
Yo, Senile_001, here's a real SLAP for ya!
Hometown Slap-Down:
Chicago Trib Tells Obama To Withdraw From 2012
SLAP THE TOTAL FAILURE
My gosh, it's "Smile" from the old Brinker site! It's been a long time! He was a flaming liberal then. And apparently he hasn't learned a thing since! :)
Well now SLAP Deliverance Pig style (when we can catch the resident piglet here in another of those special lunch breaks), if it ain't Dan the blue thong man :) how the heck are ya Dan G?
Yup the flaming liberal label is a good one to toss around - I guess it means anyone who is fiscally responsible who did not vote for stupidity and an incompetent POTUS in 2000 or 2004 gets branded as such even if an Independent :)
TA is treating you well I hope - lots of talk about another big downdraft from Kress whom I respect to the Elliot Wave nut bags - I'm buying those dips - call me crazy - or worse a flaming crazy liberal but no double dip recession is my call.
Senile_007 manages to type, who did not vote for stupidity and an incompetent POTUS in 2000 or 2004 gets branded as such even if an Independent :)
Geesh, how could you vote for for stupidity and an incompetent POTUS in 2000 or 2004 when Obama wasn't running yet? Be happy you didn't have a stupid and incompetent senator that accomplished nothing then either.
Don't give me that independent crap either. Math Junkie used to try that one, and he was such a flaming liberal, stuff would sart on fire around him.
What ever happened to Freddie from 101? He was so far out there that he makes you look like a Conservative?
Squeal Like A Pig... SLAP...Squeal Like A Pig... SLAP...Squeal Like A Pig... SLAP...
Porked Piglet (you're even starting to stutter like the porky one) when you are done getting squealed and if you can pull yourself away from being SOS... Stuck On Stupid (it's not a real fool test dummy you can stop waiting for it to load LMao), please explain how you can be so stupid as to vote for Bush twice hahahahaha the roar you hear is everyone with an IQ above the Consloped dummy line laughing at you.
Yo Senile, didja read the current summary by the talentd Ms Honey, where your hero #2 called your hero #1 "AS DUMB AS A BOX OF ROCKS"
Now how are you gonna choose between two charlatans? Which one are you gonna follow to hell?
What you need is a SolomonPig with infinite wisdom to tell you what to go and do with yourself in such a quandary. HTH
pig_SLAP_Deliverance_style,
amazing the stupid led by the dumb. You guys spend all this effort knocking lame brain Brinker and then you start quoting the idiot. How dumb can you be? I guess dumb enough to vote for Bush twice and to look at his time in office as a success when reality says he is the worst president ever. No one not even Hoover made as many mistakes as the idiot in chief Bush.
Post a Comment