Sunday, March 4, 2018

March 4, 2018, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, Stocks, Bonds, Economy and Investing

March 4, 2018....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....(comments welcome)

IN EDIT: BRINKER GOES FULL ON POLITICAL HATE SPEECH ON MONEYTALKThanks to dRahme for providing this audio (Tuesday) ==> dRahme Audio Clip: Laurence Kotlikoff  and Bob Brinker.  (See Frankj's summary of hour three below.)

STOCK MARKET.....Brinker said: "We live in volatile times. We've had volatile markets now for several weeks. Volatility can help you understand your tolerance for risk. Obviously there is a lot of volatility with the possibility that a trade war could be on the way......"  

The only other reference to the stock market that Brinker made today was to repeat his long-time advice to those in or near retirement - he recommends an asset allocation of 50% stock and 50% bonds/fixed income.  dRahme's Audio Clip = Market volatility and tariffs. 

Honey EC: It looks like the market has re-trenched about half of the 10% correction decline. According to Brinker's February 12th special bulletin, he's "waiting" for it to retest the lows. If it does, he plans to go from dollar-cost-averaging on weakness to an all-in buy-signal. He has his followers fully invested, so this would theoretically be for any new "windfall-money" that some lucky people may have. 

==>dRahme: Audio Clip... Risks to Market/Vegas "World of Outlaws" Sprint Car Racing

MARKETIMER'S THREE MODEL PORTFOLIOS.....Several of today's callers said they were in Marketimer model portfolios.  Don't be confused by all the "jabberfesting" about them. It's very simple. Brinker has only three model portfolios. Portfolio I and II are 100% equity, with the lion's share in Vanguard Total Stock Market. Portfolio III that you often hear him call the "balanced" portfolio is about 50% stocks and 50% bonds. That is the one he recommends for retirees. 

For years, he has an "active/passive" portfolio that is simply 80% Vanguard Total Stock Market and 20% in a Vanguard "all-world" mutual fund. Additionally, he has a fixed income portfolio that I have discussed several times in the past. 

BOND MARKET...Brinker expects headwinds against longer-dated bonds if rates go up. He says that the duration of Marketimer bonds is less than one year in his model portfolio III and fixed income portfolio.

FOMC AND EXPECTED RATE HIKES....BB expect the next Federal Reserve rate hike of 0.25% at the March 21st meeting. ==> dRahme Audio clip:  Risks to Market - FOMC and Expected Rate Hikes. 

PROPOSED TARIFFS....BB spent a lot of the program talking about President Trump's proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum.  To his credit, Brinker did say that so far it's just a "jabberfest" - that nothing has really been done yet.  (see the audio clips above for more information.) 

EXCHANGING METROWEST UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND FOR VANGUARD PRIME MONEY MARKET.....Caller John from Chicago said he had followed Brinker's advice to sell bond mutual fund MWCRX,  and needed some help deciding whether to put that cash into a CD ladder or a bond ladder.  BB said either would be fine.

Honey EC: Brinker did not mention that John seemed to be ignoring that along with the sale of MWCRX,  he had advised putting that cash into Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund.

BITCOINS.... BB told caller Sean from Jackson that buying Bitcoins is sheer speculation. 

VTI vs SCHB.....BB continuously recommend VTI as an ETF equivalent to the Vanguard Total Stock Market mutual fund that he includes in his model portfolios (VTSMX). 

Honey EC: Even though Brinker sang the praises of "Chuck Schwab" today, he never points out that the Schwab total stock market ETF (SCHB) has lower expense charges than Vanguard. 

==> dRahme Audio Clip:  The Week Ahead 

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-SUMMARY:

On Sunday March 4, 2018 Bob’s guest was Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, an economics professor at Boston University.  The professor ran as a write-in candidate for President of the United States in the November 8, 2016 election.   
Bob and the guest spent virtually the entire time talking about the steel and aluminum tariff announcement made by President Trump last week.   To say that he disagrees with the administration would be the understatement of a lifetime. 
Referring to the President he said, “we need to get him out of there” a few times and he called for impeachment no less than four times in the interview.   He also mentioned the 20th century dictators Hitler and Mussolini – indirectly comparing President Trump to them. 
At the beginning of the interview, Bob asked for his reaction to the tariff announcement.  The guest said “the President’s point of view has no real connection to the facts.”   He pointed out we only produce 5% of the steel consumed worldwide.  He mentioned clothing and furniture as two manufactured products that have given way to imports.   The tariff issue can put us into a long trade war, he said.  He went on to mention an article he just wrote for Forbes and said the title was something like “Can a Trade War Lead to Impeachment”? 
Bob waved a red flag at the guest, citing a tweet from the President, “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”   This prompted the guest to say the President is mentally ill and he’s making reckless and dangerous statements.  He referred to the possibility of countries putting tariffs on Boeing Aircraft produced here.   Bob brought up Wilbur Ross’ (Sec. of Commerce) and the Campbell’s soup can – it was apparently mentioned by a caller but I did not hear the call.  The guest made some disparaging comments about Mr. Ross.
The World Trade Organization is the proper place to lodge complaints about dumping of products and unfair trade.  The guest made this point a few times.  He speculated that these unilateral tariffs could lead to our expulsion.   Before the break, Bob said that China has been stealing intellectual property for quite a while but no one seems too concerned about it. 
After the break Bob asked the professor to comment on what happened after the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs were put in place.  In the next 3 years both imports and exports declined about 60%.  Eventually, tariffs were slapped on 20,000 different products.  The depression was made worse by these retaliatory tariffs.  He predicted the financial fallout from the current tariffs will drive stocks down and interest rates up.  Protectionism might have sounded good as a campaign promise but it was “stupid.” 
Regarding steel production, Stan calling from Chicago said we overproduced here and China dumped steel.   The guest’s answer was “take it to the WTO.”  
 The guest said several times, he was concerned about how the tariff pronouncement was carried out.  He definitely did not like it that President Trump took action  – he would prefer it be handed off to the WTO.  
Bob, calling from Louisiana, said we are saddled with environmental costs that other countries don’t put on their industries.  We need to maintain a core of manufacturing skills including tool and die making.   (Bluce – weigh in!)  The guest brushed off the notion that we have overly restrictive environmental regs.   The guest said we cannot destroy the planet and let sea levels rise by three feet.  Then he segued into the recent Nor’easter storm that hit the Atlantic seaboard and mentioned the tidal flooding in Boston.   In wrapping up his answer to Bob in Louisiana he referred to the President as a “wild man,” and said, “let’s get rid of him – impeach him.”  This was the fourth time he called for impeachment.
The final caller was Karen from Albuquerque whose question had something to do with digital currency and “how soon will we begin using the hyperledger?”   I don’t think the professor had the first clue what the hyperledger is but he did a good job of faking it, talking about street vendors in China finding ways to accept payment without actually taking cash. 
Bob wrapped up at 3:52.   At the sign off, the guest thanked Bob and said “Anytime, I’m all yours.”   Jeez.  
Honey here: Thanks Frank....Many of Brinker's listeners were very upset by the all out political attacks by the guest-speaker. I recommend that all read the comments that came in during the program. 

Kotlikoff:  You have offended Jewish people (and all Americans who died in WWII) when you compared our Constitutionally elected, President Donald Trump, to Hitler - as well as Mussolini and Stalin. AND I NOTICE YOU DIDN'T FORGET TO INSULT TRMP VOTERS.   I shudder to think that you are "teaching" young students. 

Note to Bob Brinker:  Just a word to the wise  - this could cost you money. There have been many who are much "bigger" than you that have gone down in disgrace when people turn away because of the undeserved and vicious attacks on President Trump. 

==> dRahme Audio Clip of Kotlikoff and Brinker saying  President Trump the same Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin and Putin. 


Listen Live: 710Knus

138 comments:

Anonymous said...

Conspicuous by its' absence from Brinker's imbalanced emotional monologue "Tariffs are Stupid and anyone proposing them is stupid"; was THE DISCUSSION OF WHY a smart successful businessman who should know better and who is now President is now proposing tariffs. (1) Is it a negotiating ploy - ie. the NAFTA negotiation talks? (2) Will there be country exemptions? (3) will the tariffs be material in nature in their impact on America, the countries, and industries impacted?

Honeybee said...

.
Anonymous...please sign your comments or establish an account to post here with.

JRW said...

It is frustrating to hear the one-sided dialog from Bob Brinker regarding tariffs. For too many years, our country has not been able to freely participate in global markets. The far east countries (starting with Japan) have established a long term economic model in which exports continually exceed imports. Any strategy that can address this "normalized" imbalance should be considered.

Jim said...

Brinker makes these tariffs sound like they will have serious consequences for the economy, continuously mentioning Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression, yet Brinker is not issuing any sell signal on the stock market because of it. That suggests that the tariffs are not as serious for the economy as he wants us to believe. As I mentioned before, George W. Bush put tariffs on steel from 2002-2003 and nothing bad happened to the economy. In fact, those tariffs were in place during March of 2003 when Brinker issued his famous buy signal on the market and a new bull market began.

Trees said...

Tariffs within pure economics are stupid. In the real world of playing fools, they are very powerful. If your country has a very high trade imbalance a tariff is your best ace. Trump once said the U.S. was stupid given it's huge trade to not leverage and arm wrestle the benefactors. Why don't we? Because our country is run on politics and those that our most adept at politics are usually naive within the arena of business. Double that concern, as these polite and "trustworthy" politicians can't stomach hard fisted negotiations. You see if they make nice and make excuses it is a safer bet. After all it is not their money and they only need to look good for a few years to make history.

Bluce said...

From "The land of the Big Picture:"

The wisdom of NOT left-wing economist Walter E. Williams, paraphrased:

"I have a 100% trade imbalance with my local grocer. He has NEVER bought anything from me. Does this matter? If so, how?"

Big Tuna said...

Agree about Bob's shortcomings. On the positive side he recommended ibonds at a good fixed rate part. Also a mild recommendation to Vanguard annuities that if you hold five years have no surrender fee.

Anonymous said...

Tariff issue = shiny object

look what the news is talking vs what it is not talking - it works

no way will tariffs go into effect

no way to stop foreign dumping of steel or aluminum if the low cost producer is producing same quality as that produced in US.

repercussions = trade war which the low cost producer of same quality will win.

the market sniffed this out as it recovered Fri.

smile

Honeybee said...

.
Smile...Sorry, I just didn't get a chance to get to the numbers you want yet.

I may still get to it, don't give up. :)

tom said...

So, tariffs talk is a big nothing ?

Unknown said...

I’m listening to Bob’s guest as I type. A typical northeast liberal professor who has probably never met a payroll a day in his life is likening Trump to Hitler and Mussolini. This is a joke. The show is pretty good until the liberals start running amok. Bob included.

Angie said...

Bob's guest, a professor, is calling Trump mentally ill & saying he needs to be removed from office. The professor is calling a multi billion dollar business man incompetent:) It doesn't get any funnier than that.

Honeybee said...

.
I posted phone and website to this Trump-hating "professor" who is the one who is "mentally-ill." He needs help - maybe pointing that out to him will be doing him a favor.



March 2, 2018 at 11:54 AM
Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Professor,
A William Fairfield Warren Professor
PhD, Harvard University
Fields: Macroeconomics, Public Finance
Room 300, (617) 353-4002
Website | kotlikof@bu.edu





Unknown said...

Agree Angie

Angie said...

Ahh, now he's talking about Global Warming. I'm shutting off the show, I really don't feel like listening to the looney left:)

Angie said...

Um, this professor is mentally ill, lol!! He's worried we're falling behind because we're not using our phone's to pay for things. Is this an SNL skit???

Jerrod Clarkson said...

(From prior thread):

Honeybee asked:

HONEY EC: Maybe someone can explain why BB would say that Nascar is in Las Vegas today when it was actually last week.


Honeybee,

Bob was likely forecasting his backtest.


JC

Unknown said...

I remember this guy, Kotlikoff, from when he wanted to be on the ballot under the "Americans Elect" banner. He's definitely out there. I'm sure he's well-aware of how mentally ill he is(or at least how mentally ill a lot of people think he is), so don't waste time contacting him. I'm sure he'd relish the extra attention he'd receive.

tom said...

I missed the guest segment. Take it that the author of 'The Coming Generational Storm' sis not talk much about his 2004 book thus?

Anonymous said...

I glad the people writing comments here can see through the fool Bob Brinker is interviewing. I am saddened to think that Bob holds the BU Trump hater in such high esteem.

Karl said...

I can't find this guy listed on Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers Listing. He sure doesn't sound like he'd last long on Reagan's team! Did Brinker mean Obama or Clinton???

Since he's from Boston sounds like he is "Mr Elizabeth Warren" !

https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/sreference/council-of-economic-advisors-staff-list

I thought Brinker mentioined that he was in Raagan's Administration.

Kotlikoff conveniently didn't mention jobs, unemployment, inflation, consumer & business confidence ..... sounds to me like this was a "set up" and a convenient & timely interview arranged!!

Angie said...

Did anyone catch the "professors" comment about planes being made out of plastic? Then he chuckled

Anonymous said...

Bob’s guest calls the President reckless for his actions on tariffs, but his cavalier recommendations for impeachment based on a difference of opinion is the height of recklessness.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

From WIKI:

"Kotlikoff attempted to run for President of the United States in the 2012 election, and sought the nominations of the advocacy group Americans Elect[1] and the Reform Party of the United States before ending his campaign in May 2012.

Political parties

Kotlikoff fervently dislikes both political parties and has called for a third party.[21] In January 2012, Kotlikoff announced his plans to run as a third party candidate for President of the United States in 2012. Kotlikoff said he would seek the presidential nomination of the non-partisan advocacy group Americans Elect.[1][22][23] He announced in May that he would also seek the nomination of the Reform Party of the United States,[24] but ended the bid after the Americans Elect board decided to not field a 2012 presidential ticket.[25]"

JC


PS:

The Reform Party was founded in 1995 by Ross Perot

Karl said...

https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/archives/textual/smof/cea-staff.pdf

OK I found Laurence J. Kotlikoff. The Reagan Library lists Staff Economists .... it looks like he was very special ..........he was one of 103 staff economists.

I guess it looks good on the resume to get a job as a Professor at BU!

Is he teaching Global Warming? I am sure that was part of his recommendation to President Reagan!

Anonymous said...

The professor seems to think a President can be impeached for differences of opinion or other minor trifles. It seems he is the reckless one out there.

Bluce said...

If I heard him correctly, in the beginning, the Loony Left Professor was complaining that young people are not getting the "proper" education.

Hey Prof, you people have been running the entire "education" system for what, 75+ years? And you have a problem with it? Something like 70% of millennials think that socialism is a better system than liberty. What are you complaining about?

Wow, this guy makes Bobby sound like a centrist.

veeman said...

First time since 1986 I turned off Brinker show, leftist professor stated that our president is like Hitler, did I really here this on Brinker show, pathetic

Unknown said...

I am very disappointed with Bob today. This so-called professor is a typical left-wing subversive internationalist. When these false-intellectuals can't debate the facts, they attach personally. They've been doing this for 100 years.

sn said...

Third hour - DISGUSTING

Honeybee said...

.
I have to admit right now that I am having difficulty getting my fury under control enough to write about Moneytalk today.

As others have said, it was a great disappointment that Brinker would actually have on a guest who would so viciously and repeatedly malign the President.

And that was after two hours of Brinker more subtly doing the same thing without actually using a name.

Anonymous said...

No apology needed HB. I know you are doing a lot. Patience is the word.

If we get far enough from 2/28/18 and closer to 3/31/18 it might be better to wait for the next Brinker MT Update. Your call.

======

Tom said, "So, tariffs talk is a big nothing ?"

smile responds: that is my thinking Tom, as far as getting implemented if you look at the trade-offs for US makers vs users of steel and aluminum products, the loss for the users of steel/alum far outweighs any benefit to the makers of steel/alum, and even if you accept what Wilbur Ross is saying about costs (he explains it is no big deal using a campbell soup can - well if no big deal then why do it is my question - btw I think Wilbur is wrong on the cost impact to users and of course to consumers as these costs would get passed thru). Of course I could be wrong. Usually common sense wins out.

Also historically as mentioned Smoot-Hawley tariff past being prologue and also Bush tried the same thing I think in 2002-2003 and eventually had to take them off cause it was a colossal fail. I believe Obama used targeted tariffs for Chinese steel dumping.

Looks like Canada is the big exporter of steel to the US with about 43% and China is way down on the list at about 4% (not sure if this number includes any phantom stockpiling using other countries as fronts) if I remember the numbers correctly.

smile

KC said...

Bob's third hour guest is proof that an intelligent man can also be very ignorant. To compare our President to Adolf Hitler (Nazi) is the disgusting and falls in line with all the other ignorant, deranged liberals. They are a tolerant bunch as long as you agree with them.

What would wreck this economy more than any tariff is the liberals getting into office and impeaching the President for simply disagreeing with them.

And Bob's silence and unwillingness to challenge the dear professor is pretty telling. With professors like this running around college campuses it is one more reason why my kid joined the Marines and is getting an education in life experiences.

I feel much better now that I got that off my chest.

KC

Honeybee said...

.
KC....It was clear to me that Brinker and Kotlikoff are great friends, based on Brinker affectionately calling him "Larry".

If Brinker would have objected to the name calling, and stupid threats to impeach, he could have called a break anytime and asked him to cool it. He didn't.

And how offensive to Jewish people (and all Americans who died in WWII) that Kotlikoff compared President Trump to Hitler - as well as Mussolini and Stalin.

All with the blessings of Bob Brinker, who I would have sworn would not allow that on his program.

Unknown said...

Great points KC. I emailed the professor and told him I could only imagine what kind of left-winged education his students were getting. Liberal Bob should be ashamed of that nonsense. I’m sure your kid is a great person!

Unknown said...

It's been a cold a$$ winter here in NE Ohio!!!!
We had 8 straight days below 20, nearly tieing the all-time record 9 straight days below 20 from 1961! WHERE OH WHERE IS THE CLIMATE CHANGE PLEASE WARM UP ALREADY!
I'd love to have a longer growing season, more vegetation, lower heating bills plus the other benefits of a warmer climate! Less salt on the roads so my car doesn't rot!

The 2017-18 streak of eight straight days marked the fourth eight-day streak of temperatures remaining below 20 In Cleveland history dating back to 1871.

The others were in 2007, 1895 and 1893.

Hmmm, interesting thought, if it warms up I won't have to run my furnace so much then I'll put less CO2 into the atmosphere! Great idea, let's do that!



Daddy Paul said...

I said it before. Brinker is hoping for a double bottom. I think he is wrong.
I actually listened to the first 1/2 hour today.
Honey you are a saint for listing to it for us.

Paul

Anonymous said...

Brinker said to buy the QQQs when they were down 20% but then, they went down 70%.

Kilgore

Bluce said...

Frankj: I caught your comment to me in your summary!

I build injection molds for the plastics industry, but the work is similar to tool and diemaking. There is more work out there than there are people to do it. I've been going pretty much non-stop since last spring, and I'm old and should retire but I can't stop!

I'm in my 50th year doing this and there has always been plenty of work (overtime is just a normal thing for us) and plenty of opportunities for young people to get into it, and make a decent living to boot.

J Wales said...

Accusing people of mental illness because they have a passion to keep America on a viable sustainable path & to keep it the land of opportunity is pitiful.

Anonymous said...

Bob Brinker should be ashamed of Hour 3 today.
It was a terrible decision by Bob Sr. & Bob Jr. to put this on the air.
Bob Brinker owes all his listeners an apology.
I have been a listener and subscriber since it all started on Super Bowl Sunday 1986.
I will cancel my subscription to both Moneytalk and The Brinker Fixed Income Advisor tomorrow.
All the goodwill Bob Brinker had earned over the last 32 years was lost today in 1 hour by putting and keeping Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff on the air.
Bob Brinker should have cut him off immediately.
March 4, 2018 was sad day in Moneytalk history.
God Bless those that make it to the land of critical mass, where money is no longer a concern and you are able to live the lifestyle of your desire.

Anonymous said...

Bob Brinker should be ashamed of Hour 3 today.
It was a terrible decision by Bob Sr. & Bob Jr. to put this on the air.
Bob Brinker owes all his listeners an apology.
I have been a listener and subscriber since it all started on Super Bowl Sunday 1986.
I will cancel my subscription to both Moneytalk and The Brinker Fixed Income Advisor tomorrow.
All the goodwill Bob Brinker had earned over the last 32 years was lost today in 1 hour by putting and keeping Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff on the air.
Bob Brinker should have cut him off immediately.
March 4, 2018 was sad day in Moneytalk history.
God Bless those that make it to the land of critical mass, where money is no longer a concern and you are able to live the lifestyle of your desire.

Bluce said...

It's a depressing thing to do, but I keep my finger on the pulse of the nation, and I would say that the radical professor we just heard is pretty typical for what infests the colleges today.

However, I think if most of them were to go on Bobby's (supposedly non-political) show, they would have muted their radical left-wing views somewhat. Most of them (I think) would have kept a lid on their contempt for the duly-elected President and The Proud Deplorables who put him in office.

This guy today was way over the top. Karl Marx, Saul Alinsky, Herbert Marcuse . . . are you happy?

Unknown said...

I emailed Kotlikoff and told him that I can only imagine what left-winged indoctrination his students must be getting. He emailed me back and said he didn’t say anything in the interview that was left-winged lol!

Trees said...

Walter E. Williams, paraphrased:

"I have a 100% trade imbalance with my local grocer. He has NEVER bought anything from me. Does this matter? If so, how?"

Walter's analogy is poor comparison to trade total trade imbalance. If he would say, how would the grocer trade imbalance affect his wealth if he continuously paid more for his wares (imports) than his sales (exports).

Trade imbalance in general will shift the countries wealth. Also, selling valuable natural resources is a anemic export given the low labor content. Selling airplanes is good.

I do believe in foundation wealth, that goes unrated by economist. The U.S. needs to put a premium on producing food, energy, and base materials. We have wonderful natural resources that may prove more valuable to economy over time? I would put steel and aluminum production in that category of base or foundation economy. The U.S. has incredible ingenuity to change and improve. Trump was saying our steel industry is a mess, but we can not afford to let it perish. So, with max effort within regulations, process engineering, and business, I do think it is possible to once again be competitive. No long term tariffs, but as many countries do apply them to protect a wounded sector to recoup. It is intended to give the sector a second chance if they take it. To weather a particularly hard storm.

We do know that China is ruthless is killing competition and utilizes a concerted approach with government funding to eliminate competition. Appliances, BEVs, solar panels, etc. These industries export at less than manufacturing cost. China utilizes this practice as their national defense and exporting unemployment.

The U.S. should radically change the permit process. We need more flexibility and much more speed. Co-generation of power is maligned with regulations. Same for household power production. Nuclear industry is savaged by activist regs that only exist to deter energy development. Think of energy parks with nuclear power at the center powering aluminum and steel production 24x7.

Bluce said...

Trees: You've been listening to too many long-winded *left-wing "economists." It isn't that complicated.

Professor Williams is the epitome of common-sense, something in very short supply in today's America.

"Brevity is the soul of wit."

* The vast majority of "economists" are left wing.

“People who pride themselves on their 'complexity' and deride others for being 'simplistic' should realize that the truth is often not very complicated. What gets complex is evading the truth.” -- Dr. Thomas Sowell

Honeybee said...

.
Terry Stembridge....So Kotlikoff denies being a "left-winger."

Do you think that maybe he is also a liar?

We know he lied bald-facedly about the President seriously praising the Chinese Communist dictatorship.

What President Trump actually did was make a joke to a large, devoted audience. They all got the joke and laughed and cheered.

Why do I say Kotlikoff lied? Because I know he isn't that damned stupid.

Honeybee said...

.
No matter where you come down on the President's tariff proposals, it's clear that very few want the President spoken about the way that Bob Brinker allowed Lawrence Kotlikoff to do yesterday.

And for him to repeatedly talk about impeachment as though it was a way to simply throw out a President that you don't agree with was anti-American and alarming since he is a "professor" at a university.

Brinker must know that, but he sat there with his bully-pulpit mic and allowed "Larry" to spew hatred and vile for better part of an hour. Shameful and disgraceful!

Bluce said...

From a leftist's view of the world:

There is no left-wing. There is just normalcy, and then there are those right-wing reactionaries who oppose progress.

Turn on the TV and you will see this attitude on display. They truly believe it.

J Wales said...

Trump is a busnessman & he will use the tools in his box to negotiate what he sees as a better financial deal for the US. People are unfamiliar with this style. The country has never had a actual business person as president. Did Obama or or even GW own or run a business? People have become accustomed to our leaders being bad negotiators. Giving away the peoples wealth like it was their own. It probably looks crazy to people who have never seen a guy who can actually work a deal that benefits the country financially. If thats crazy then call me crazy. If your buying a car do you just give the dealership an extra $5k because you want to appear nice? The tariff tiff is a negotiation tactic to get some of these parties who have been getting a free ride to pay attention.

Jim said...

This is a classic example of something I said a while about Brinker always advocating that people get a college degree to get a good paying job. While that may be true, it comes with a price and that price is that students can get their minds poisoned by professors such as Mr. Kotlikoff. I hope with Brinker's audience being much older and wiser they do not get brainwashed by this nonsense.

Honeybee said...

.
J.Wales and all....This is a very dangerous world, both inside our borders and outside them.

If the United States does not have the ability to provide good steel and aluminum for any eventuality that might occur, we could end up without a country - to paraphrase the President.

The fact is, we have been losing our capacity to produce those critical building elements for many years, and if the pace continues, could lose it altogether.

And that is not to mention the obscene trade imbalance with other countries - especially Mexico, Canada and China.

pickax said...

In February 2017, Laurence Kotlikoff provided the recommendation to "Sell your stocks and your long-term bonds, too, until the dust settles. If your stocks and long bonds are in retirement accounts, transfer them to short-term Treasuries."

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/2017/02/13/kotlikoff-get-stock-market-now

Fortunately for Larry, Bob didn't inquire about this stellar piece of market timing advice...

DJ said...

Thanks to all for exposing some of the history on Kotlikoff. This was a very disturbing (& disgusting) segment & for Brinker to allow this degrading rhetoric to go unchallenged, says a lot about da Brink.

dj

birdbrain said...

For the first time in a great while I listened to the first hour of Moneytalk and am leaning towards the "questionable legitimacy of some callers" camp. Realizing those allowed on air are carefully screened (I've slipped through twice) the first caller in his 60s asks about asset allocation while being 100% in equities.

The next gent claimed his dad turned him on to the show when "the Fridge" William Perry scored a touchdown during Mr B's very first program. So his father, presumably a Bears fan, was listening to a brand new financial program during the Super Bowl. A question about bitcoin investing followed.

I understand basic financial acumen is lacking among the population but it is head shaking that so many wealthy listeners have called in to ask what I would consider basic elementary questions. Plus it only takes tuning in a few Sundays to grasp the host's broad fundamental principals (diversification, low expense, index funds, etc.)

Honeybee said...

.
Birdbrain....If you count those who Brinker never asks their net worth, but who state property value, etc., I'd say that at least 3 out of 4 callers are multi-millionaires.

Yesterday, I counted three callers who stated they had several $million dollars and one had a $million in portfolio one alone.

This used to be the exception, but now has become the rule.

It looks like BB is catering to a certain segment of the population.

Anybody got any ideas why?

Alf said...

I've often wondered if some of the calls are planted like an infomercial.

The good doctor didn't mention the mess the current President inherited from previous administrations.

Where's Gabe?

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Honeybee recommended:
dRahme's Audio Clip = Market volatility and tariffs.

A very interesting clip to be sure. While listening, I thought we might have a new radio classic on our hands, namely:

THE WAR OF THE WORLDS II !!!
- Narrated by DUH Blink
- March 04, 2018

PS: I wonder if any of those "multi-millionaires" that call in each week put on their scaredy pants today, cashed out their entire portfolios, then retreated to their "safe rooms"?

JC


-------------------------------------------------------------------


Welles scares nation - Oct 30, 1938 - HISTORY.com
www.history.com/this-day-in-history/welles-scares-nation

Orson Welles causes a nationwide panic with his broadcast of “War of the Worlds” — a realistic radio dramatization of a Martian invasion of Earth. Orson Welles was only 23 years old when his Mercury Theater company decided to update H.G. Wells' 19th-century science fiction novel War of the Worlds for national radio.

Anonymous said...

Honey, it’s a guy thing. Bob is overcompensating. My guess. A bit insecure.

Pavlov’s Cat

frankj said...

Millionaire callers:

It gives Bob credence to have these callers on especially when they say they have listened and/or subscribed. He has been on about 32 years. So someone who started listening and acting on his advice early on SHOULD BE a millionaire if they earned an above average income, or both spouses worked. Dollar cost average, use no-load funds, take advantage of 401K matches, max out the IRAs.

Oh, and ignore the advice about the QQQs.

Anonymous said...

Totally let down and turn off by the comments made and allowed to be repeated again and again Bob B did nothing. In fact let this leftist continue to spout such hate. These comments should never been allowed or excepted. I will no long listen to BOB. I hope others do the same so he gets the message.

Cleo said...

Has a caller on moneytalk ever snuck in their displeasure to Bob about his qqq, utek, or firsthand funds buy signals? That would be good listening .

Unknown said...

I have been listening to Money Talk since I can remember. This is the first time I have ever turned the show off in mid-stream. His guest infuriated me. I am still very upset a day later. I am even more perplexed by Bob allowing the guest to continue to bombard our President without rebuking his guest. It will be interesting to see if Bob comments about his guest on this coming week's show. If not, I am not sure I will ever listen again.

Honeybee said...

.
John Dunn....I only listened because of this blog. I "took the bullet" for blog readers who I knew would want a place where the absolute truth is known and spoken.

However, do not expect Bob Brinker to be on the air live next week. It's almost certain that it will be a program of spliced calls and pre-recorded monologues telling us what Moneytalk is supposed to be all about.

TAKE IT TO THE BANK. And by the following week, Brinker will probably think that everyone has forgotten what he allowed to be vomited on the air yesterday through "Larry" Kotlifkof.

I'd love it if someone sent Brinker's pal, Larry, a link to this blog. It might be a dose of reality for him - or not.....


March 2, 2018 at 11:54 AM
Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Professor,
A William Fairfield Warren Professor
PhD, Harvard University
Fields: Macroeconomics, Public Finance
Room 300, (617) 353-4002
Website | kotlikof@bu.edu

Honeybee said...

.
Kilgore...Please do not send any more of your bull manure to this blog.

Next to Kotlikoff, you may be the most ill-informed person this side of Timbuktu.

J Wales said...

Now that the Olympics are over theres not much to watch on TV. Watched the Oscars. Ot was dull. Hollywood is a mess. Very little entertainment value anymore. The agendas & quite frankly bashing of people not of color is incindiary. They are really trying to stir the pot. I guess when you can't produce anything with entertainment value you go ahead & do your best to alienate & offend the people who make this country the land of opportunity. They serm to have adopted a scorched earth policy.

Anonymous said...

I read in the summary that Bob has the Vanguard Total World Stock Market. Is this what he uses for his international portion of his portfolios? I looked at the top holdings and there are a lot of U.S. Companies in it. I thought that I heard him say at some point over the years he used the Vanguard Total International Stock Market fund. Thank you, Tom

Anonymous said...

Mountain Mike said,

Honey - regarding Brinker's millionaire callers... Heck, you have been following his advice for about 20yrs. Aren't you a millionaire yet? You should be, else you are doing something wrong IMHO..

Honeybee said...

.
So Mountain Mike: I am going to assume you are trying to add a little comic relief to the thread and just ignore your rudeness.


Honeybee said...

.
Tom said: "I read in the summary that Bob has the Vanguard Total World Stock Market."

No Tom. That is not what you read in the summary. Take another look at it. I said exactly what I meant.

Unknown said...

I absolutely think he is t telling the truth Hineybee! I’ve noticed liberals can’t stand being called a liberal.

Unknown said...

Very perceptive Birdbrain. I think you may be right.

Unknown said...

Hineybee. I am going to respond to Kotlikoff. I will send him the link. Thanks for all you do with this site. It is great!

Pig said...


I didn't mind the 3rd hour guest at all. To me it was the same as the first 2 hours. I was out riding a bike and never listened. That's about 20 years of not listening now, and my blood pressure is just fine. So is my retirement account. It took a lot longer thanks to QQQ (BUY NOW AND CRASH) and TEFQX (You can't afford to be out of this sector for one minute) and the Montgomery funds (huh?). THANKS boB!

gabe said...

I am holding a bunch of cash given this volatile and confusing market!

Well, AMZN is getting into the financial arena with a checking account proposal. I'm awaiting its entry into the RX space.

I continue to be amazed with AMZN.

Gabe

PS Did very well last weekend with my thoroughbreds.

Angie said...

Terry Stembridge & Honeybee... I wonder if Bob would have allowed a guest to compare Obama to Hitler & Mussolini, and then call for his impeachment. It was so obvious that Bob was more than happy to allow the lefty loon professor spew his hatefulness. I lost some respect for Bob because of that.

Honeybee said...

Angie....All anyone has to do is read back through my Moneytalk summaries over Obama's eight years to get the answer to your question.

I can save some time and just tell you that Brinker never had on a guest who said anything negative about Obama, and Brinker hardly ever mentioned him - or complained about anything he did.

He slammed the "dysfunctional" congress and occasionally mentioned "the administration," but almost never Obama.

Biker said...

Tom said: "I read in the summary that Bob has the Vanguard Total World Stock Market."

You are on the right track; look for an "all-world ex-US" fund (such as Total Intl Stock Index or FTSE All-World Ex-US Index), not "total world". (The term "all-world" is misleading because it includes US.)

Biker

Honeybee said...

.
NOTE TO ALL: dRahme has sent a clip of a portion of Kotlikoff calling President Trump "dangerous and mentally ill" and like "Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin and Putin," while Bob Brinker encouraged him and listened.

In my opinion, that hour was an egregious deception and abuse perpetrated on the Moneytalk audience and every person who voted for Donald Trump.

==> Laurence Kotlikoff and Bob Brinker call for Trump Impeachment because they disagree with him.

I will be posting this in the front page summary too.

Anonymous said...

I haven't yet listened to the March 4 Money Talk show. I will skip the Kotlikoff interview though. Per these reviews he sounds like a well educated fool.

I rarely find it worth my time to listen to most of Bob's guests anyway. But really, if anyone wants to seriously argue with me that Hillary would have been a better choice than Trump, I'd like to make you a sales pitch for some beach front Mojave real estate.

MK

Anonymous said...

Stock index futures dropping like a rock on Cohn resignation.

smile

House Doc said...

Bargain shopping tomorrow with Gary Cohn resignation. Futures tanking.

gabe said...

Jim Cramer predicted such....Cohn's resignation.

Gabe

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Looks like SP 500 has stabilized a bit, however still down about 1% as I post:

https://goo.gl/jsXbTb

https://goo.gl/1i865j

JD

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Re: Kotlikoff Remarks:

I have searched - but am unable to find any Kotlikoff bona fides that would substantiate any expertise in Telepathic Psychiatry.

Conclusion:

This one-hour interview demonstrates what damage can be done when we have two self-important, clueless jerks (who don't know squat) bloviating and barfing into their respective microphones.

If Bobby had any important sponsors I might suggest we initiate a boycott, so all things considered it is probably best to save our time and resources on this one.

JC

Anonymous said...

Well, to his credit during the Sunday show, BB self-identified as a sprint car geek. I can feel him on that.

When first into Cali, initial trek was to J.C. Agajanian's Ascot Park in Gardena. Saw the high-powered, light-weight, short-wheelbase sprinters powering sideways around the dirt oval, just across the street from a mom-n-pop long-established residential neighborhood. In fact, parked in front of their house, under the big shade tree by the sidewalk. America was great back then.

Viewing the maniacal competition, said to myself, "Ok, now I'm learning something about racing." Then got splattered with mud and closed my mouth for the duration.

BB may have a point. My short-duration bond funds are starting to slide in NAV. However, have seen this before after a 10-yr Treas. yield spike. Was some retrenchment before, call it volatility. Might bail out if recovery is near even (not likely.)

No sense shoveling sand against the tide. Did that for too many years on the Fort Lauderdale beach cleaning crew. Thankless job, but lots of interesting seaweed specimens.
Russ C. (they call me Crusty)

Anonymous said...

ROFL at "bloviating and barfing into their respective microphones"! THAT certainly paints a picture!

MK

Trees said...

It was no secret that Democrat Cohn's was leaving after successful tax overhaul legislation.

It would be a mistake to let our aluminum and steel industry take a hit from cheap imports. China's central control economy decided to 5x their steel production with new factories. Production far and above their needs. They overproduced steel and now dumping. This is China strategy 101 wherein they overproduce and dump product to eliminate competition. They are doing the same with appliances, solar panels, and aluminum. They are setting themselves up for the same in BEV and lithium batteries.

Total reliance on foreign metals would be a big mistake. Our infrastructure, military, and industry just to important to national security.

Our steel industry does have a long history of downsizing and obsoleting mills. Modern mini mills have filled the production gap. These mills recycling metal to more valuable grades. Employment of steel industry down 80% from heyday. Metallurgy is one of the most valuable technologies and owning such will provide for countries future. This again is base wealth required for powerful and stable future. It's foolish to think software alone can do the job of replacing loss economic revenue. They don't call it vapor ware for nothing.

It's a sad fact that environmentalist are driving high pollution industry overseas wherein more environmental damage will occur. It's a fools game to pretend such. Better to keep it here and work to minimize emissions under U.S. control.

Anonymous said...

checked ZACKS ratings for all model portfolio funds..Only AKREX is listed as "strong sell". all the rest are BUY or HOLD............IRWIN in Skokie

Unknown said...

Does Import Protection Save Jobs?

http://tradepartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/232EmploymentPolicyBrief.pdf

Conclusion
Steel and aluminum tariffs would reverberate throughout
the U.S. economy in ways that will, on balance, reduce
U.S. employment. While U.S. steel and aluminum jobs
would increase, those gains would come at a high cost:
over 179,300 job losses across the rest of the economy.

Source: www.tradepartnership.com

March 5, 2018
Dr. Joseph Francois
Laura M. Baughman
__________________________________________________________________________

All the more pertinent as Gary Cohn is out as top economic advisor.

tfb said...

On tariffs…let me give you the perspective from a small businessman, it is simply yet another tax that will be passed along to the consumer and in the end not any more of a deal than the myriad of taxes business deals with every day. Think of it this way, when I employ someone I am forced to pay a mark up on their labor cost in the form of SS, a poorly maned, government mandated Ponzi scheme that punishes the productive and adds 6.2% to my payroll cost. Then there is minimum wage, the supply of labor prices a labor at one price, the government insists that is knows the correct price for commodity labor skills. When I go to get my occupancy permit, I need to pay an outrageous croupiers fee to have a government wonk tell me that I need to spend an additional 45k to bring my perfectly functional restroom up to the latest ADA standard. Oh and by the way, I need to reserve a great number of parking spots for the imaginary handicapped that have yet to ever visit my business. The products I use have layer after layer of inspection fees, fees for whatever embedded in them. The software I buy has additional costs as it also has to designed to accommodate the ADA. When I look at my utility bills and there are all sort of government mandated fees forcing me to subsidize the poor, imagined environmental issues etc generally from poorly run monopolies the government approves of. All this is embedded in the price of the product I charge the public. Do you relay think I am that concerned with a tax on aluminum that raises the price of soda by 2 cents when you already force me collect an additional tax for high fructose corn syrup? By the way, have you seen the subsidies on sugar? How about the ethanol blended gas that is more expensive I have to pay for in my delivery vehicles.

tfb

Honeybee said...

.
No matter what we "think" may happen if President Trump moves toward a more fair-trade policy with tariffs on steel and aluminum, we know for a fact that we have lost most of our steel production in this country - and are on our way to losing it all.

In a world where we could be attacked at any time and have to defend our homeland, we should never have to depend on any other country for building ANYTHING.

Anyone who wants to know more than opinion about this subject, I recommend reading this:

The Effect of Imports of Steel on the national Security (commerce.gov)

Honeybee said...

.
Good news for steel already and it's still in the planning stages:

"US Steel will restart two blast furnaces and recall 500 employees in Granite City, Illinois following President Trump’s decision to tax steel and aluminum imports.

A total of 800 new US steel and aluminum jobs were announced in the last two days."

Bluce said...

GO JEFF SESSIONS!

We're all pulling for you CA residents.

J Wales said...

Radical environmentalist are a pox on the world. Its basically a religion. If you don't agree with their agenda they will rub you out & label you an infidel.

frankj said...

Russ C (Crusty)

Small world. I too, am an alumni of the Ft. Lauderdale, FL beach cleaning crew. I was on the south beach crew, at the park, the foreman was Charlie. The north beach crew (who always thought they were superior to us), was supervised by Earl. The capo was Wayne who drove a city pickup truck. Charlie told me, "You know Wayne is mad if he puts it in first gear and takes off." (He usually slid away in 2nd gear).

Anonymous said...

U.S was hostage to OPEC and import oil for decades. Now top producer and EXPORTER..kvetching about tariffs, about time to bring back ''made in the U.S.A" and jobs..global, Wall St, investors will all sort out, make $$$ IRWIN in Skokie

J Wales said...

Anytime futures are way down because one person leaves his government job its a nothingburger. Economists are a dime a dozen. Why would anyone care? Traders are trading every piece of news that comes out. Its weird. Trade war is not going to happen. But maybe all these parasites will see my tax dollar won't come gift wrapped with a bow.

Honeybee said...

.
J Wales...Do you really think that the talking heads on TV know why the stock market does what it does? As you said, who cares if Cohn left? We may get someone better - like Larry Kudlow. Who knows?

The talking heads clearly take what is handy to account for the market going down big, as long as it will be negative toward President Trump.

But don't hold your breath for anyone (except possibly Varney) giving the President the credit on the days the market goes up big.

Honeybee said...

.
Bluce....I have been on Cloud Nine today - thanks to AG Sessions and his boss coming to the rescue of Californians who are sitting ducks for the Crazy Commies in Sacramento.

J Wales said...

I think the msrket timming aspect to BBs business is really not going to benefit people. Isn't the Jan.2000 call to lighten your stock holdings the only call that was arguably correct? Getting back in is where it really becomes an adventure. Just seems like age in bonds & rebalance once a year is going to be a good plan for most. Theres just too many moving parts when you start trying to out guess the stock market. I guess if you need something to line your bird cage with then buy a news letter.

J Wales said...

The fed has been telling everyone who will listen they were going to raise rates. And they didn't charge me a dime. Why would you pay for free info? If employment numbers are alarmingly high on Friday you could see a 50 basis point hike. Now that would rattle the market. I know most don't believe it could happen but it might be out of their control. The economy where I live is scorching hot. You can see activity in housing. The price for a residential building lot is triple what it was 5 years ago. Cars are everywhere. Seems like everyone is flush.

Unknown said...

Hi all! Rarely a commentator, but I've been reading Honey's Forum for many years. The Beehive has been educational and at times entertaining. After talking it over with my wife and sleeping on it for a couple of days, I would like to amend my original comment on the March 4 broadcast. - First of all, I would not hesitate and would greatly enjoy sticking my fingers in the eyes of this subversive pedagogue Kotlikoff, but academia is filled with these left-wing girly-men and he is of no concern to me. What is concerning to me and my wife is Bob Brinker. - I've been listening to Bob Brinker's Moneytalk since 93. Although most of my portfolio is in the TSP and also although, fundamentally, I am a Bogle investor, the fact of the matter is I would not be in the Land of Critical Mass without Bob Brinker and his Moneytalk program. With the exception of the March 4 broadcast, my wife and I have enjoyed and learned much listening to Moneytalk. In my first comment I stated that I was disappointed with Bob Brinker, but it is not that. It is sadness and fear that Bob Brinker could be anything like this low-life Kotlikoff. My wife and I like Bob Brinker a lot. We believe he is a good man and has done much good for working stiffs like myself. Until further notice, my wife and I are giving Double B the benefit of the doubt.

Mark said...

"Kotlikoff" sure sounds alot like Russian collusion...Mueller?

Gawd said...

J Wales said...
"I think the msrket timming aspect to BBs business is really not going to benefit people. Isn't the Jan.2000 call to lighten your stock holdings the only call that was arguably correct? Getting back in is where it really becomes an adventure. Just seems like age in bonds & rebalance once a year is going to be a good plan for most. Theres just too many moving parts when you start trying to out guess the stock market. I guess if you need something to line your bird cage with then buy a news letter."

Actually, I would rank his March 11, 2003 special Marketimer bulletin to fully buy back into the market with the dry powder followers had set aside since his January 2000 call to lighten up sizable percentages of their stock holding as a correct call. He pretty much nailed it to the day I'd say. And I would argue that every time Brinker identified a <20% pullback as a correction rather than a >20% bear market was a correct call. Particularly in the face of other, higher profile stock market "gurus" going on the air to tell us we ought to be running for the hills or strongly consider getting out of the market during those time periods.

gabe said...

Excluding Canada and Mexico was a very good move.

Sold my prize filly for $38,500. It was an offer "I could not refuse".

We came in first in a $25,000 Allowance race today. Four going this weekend.

Gabe

Honeybee said...

.
Kilgore Trout....Please do NOT send any more of your Trump-hating and bashing.

If you continue to do so, you will be banned from EVER having anything published here.

Honeybee said...

.
Gabe...The President did not exclude Mexico and Canada.

He is in negotiation with them on NAFTA.

If he doesn't get a FAIR deal for America, he will end NAFTA.

Unknown said...

Thank you. The stock market never ever does what I think it will do. It will be interesting to watch it from right before the next interest rate meeting to a few days after the 23rd when tarrifs take place.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Did you read the news today?
Investors should be placing very tight stop loss orders.
Looks like Putin vetoed Mitt Romney as Secretary of State and wanted Exxon’s Rex Tillerson. Now it appears that Putinnordered the steel tariffs!!

Vince in Modesto

Kilgore Trout said...

Natash. Just wait until October when the Fed begins QT.
Those fully invested are whistling past the graveyard.

J Wales said...

Everybody knows what everybody knows. It's priced in.

Bluce said...

"It depends on what the definition of 'is' is." -- Bill Clinton

J Wales said...

They sure like to put David Shockman on the financial porn shows. According to Dave we've been whistling for the last 5 years. More like a marching band & a full orchestra playing. Dave seems sincere but his market timming isn't too good. He's been in bunker mode since Dubya left office.

Anonymous said...

Gosh, just listened to the guest interview from Sunday's show. It was worse than the always rational Frankj summary let on. The guy was a fast-talking reciter of Dem. Party talking points de jour.

The ironically funny part was near the beginning when BB quoted a Trump tweet about winning a trade war and the Prof. responded that "nobody would listen for 2 seconds if he wasn't the President..."

Maybe, but surely nobody would listen to this prof's pap if he spewed it in a local hardware store, a corner tavern, a county fair, a hot rod show, a tractor pull, a ball game, a fishing trip, a gun show, a fox hunt, a neighbor helping a neighbor, a charity bingo, a food bank or any of the other good places.

Send the guy back to BS University with his tenure to re-think it. By the way, back in the 1960's you could see the big Carling Black Label sign on the roof of the brewery in Natick from the top floor of the Prudential Building in Boston.

Now you know where your insurance premiums went.
Frannie, Framingham

KC said...

For me there is only one way out of this for Brinker.......come on the air live this Sunday and during his opening monologue, apologize for the vulgar comments about our President by last week's guest. I will be waiting.

Thanks Honey

J Wales said...

They should put side show Bob & dangerous Dave in the same room together & have stock market cage match. Dave calls Trump clueless? Hey Dave lets have you & Trump compare bank accounts & see who is clueless.

Honeybee said...

.
J.Wales....I think you are referring to "larry" Kitlokoff - He could put his bank account in with Bob Brinker's and they still wouldn't come even close to matching The Donald's. :)

Honeybee said...

.
KC....Many here are hoping that Brinker will give some kind of a mea culpa next Sunday, but I seriously doubt he will be on live.

If he is on live, then we can be sure it was for that very reason - to make excuses or tell us how he is "non-partisan" again for the hundredth time.

gabe said...

AMZN hit an all time high...1500. What a Company, stock and purchase!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

.

Hiring surge adds 313K jobs in February (and more good news):
abcnews.go.com

BWV said...

Unfortunately, Kotlikoff is typical of the creeps who rule the universities, making higher education (outside of the hard sciences) a sham, consisting of little more than 4 years of leftist indoctrination. Don't ask me how I know......

If you want to puke, read this op-ed from a recent WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-cant-be-debated-on-campus-1518792717

Does Bob still think the best thing to do for young sprouts is to send them to college?

J Wales said...

Looks like Wall st is real concerned about the tariffs. I did read where this may be more of a political strategy for a key congressional race in Pennsylvania.

Unknown said...

The market today is celebrating the 9 year anniversary of the late Mark Haines, who on Tuesday March 10, 2009 correctly called the stock market bottom.

The Call

Unfortunately, Mark didn’t gain financially from his now celebrated market bottom call – he didn’t have a market-timer publication to sell!

Anonymous said...

I have heard Bob mention trade school as an alternative to a college education. But frankly, yes, I recall having to wade through a lot politically correct BS in a humanities course I was required to take.

MK

gabe said...

WHAT A DAY!

Gabe

Harold said...

Gabe do you have a log or diary of your Amazon dealings. Your thoughts on why or when you bought, additions, taking profits? A chronological listing of Amazon pertinent activities leading to where you are today with the stock.

That would be informative and exciting reading.

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Personally, I see NO way out of this for Brinker.

His goose has been permanently cooked. The folks that listened in the third hour can't unhear what they heard. Nor can they ignore his refusal to do anything to ameliorate the damage done.

A new and very conspicuous low in the unseemly world of dog-and-pony shows.

JC

Honeybee said...

.
Jerrod...You are correct. Kotlikoff made those same comments - or worse, almost every time he spoke. It was like every answer he gave to Brinker's questions, he used as an opportunity to spew venom at the President.

I had hopes during the mid-point break that BB would tell his buddy to stop it, but he did not. Kotlikoff continued the whole time he was on the air, and Brinker did not say ONE WORD against it.

Ruyfa said...

The Haines bottom was a great call. Rip Mark, we have lots to be thankful for. Also way to be positive Gabe!

gabe said...

Harold: Your request is a very good one, however, it would require that I would provide personal and confidential information that I am not prepared to do given the fact that this a public forum.

Generally speaking, I have done exceptionally well financially. With respect to Bob's suggestion that one not own more than 4% in any stock in one's portfolio.......well I flunked!

Thanks,

Gabe

Bluce said...

SCHWAB NEWS:

Charlie used to cover up to $500k in client losses from cyber-theft, etc. But according to the quarterly mag he publishes, they are now covering 100%.

Anonymous said...

congrats to all home gamers who held on, did not panic and may even have bought the recent lows.

been at this a long time and even though I'm kind of use to volatility, because of the speed of the decline, it was harder this time to pull the trigger. I still managed to move about 100k around and increase my portfolio beta and performance.

I'm within about half of 1% from my own portfolio high, outperforming the Dow and S&P but slightly under-performing NDX and Comp.

Caught B Wien this am. sounds like he is still bullish but expecting volatility going forward. He mentioned the deficit issue, fed 4 vs 3 moves, and interest rates as the reason for expecting greater vol. going forward. He threw out some S&P earnings expectations 165 and 175 I think for '18 & 19 with a pe of 17 or 18 expecting over 3000 S&P.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/03/09/byron-wien-weighs-in-on-nine-year-bull-market.html

smile

Jim said...

Over the past 12 months 224K manufacturing jobs have been added. That is the largest annual increase in 20 years. Bob Brinker has long claimed that manufacturing is dying in the U.S and those jobs will continue to be lost to cheap foreign labor. The President is proving him wrong. Good article here:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/09/this-is-the-greatest-manufacturing-jobs-boom-in-twenty-years/

gabe said...

One of my horses scheduled to race today was scratched....the reason he had the flu!

So...three are going this weekend.

Interestingly. percentage wise...Google and Microsoft did better yesterday percentage wise than did Amazon! And, so I am proud of these two as well.

Gabe

Josette said...

My first thought after the Kotlikoff interview was that this is the beginning of the end of BB's radio program. But I then quickly realized that since the program has been becoming progressively worse for a long time, the interview was more like a big pothole before the final crash (if not the final crash itself.) Hopefully, the stations will pick up an educational program done by an ethical financial professional who isn't selling anything and keeps political biases out of the discussion.

Arnie said...

Gabe you should keep a diary of your activities for a possible book or lifetime movie.

Anonymous said...

It might be a short story.

"Bought it in 1992 for $10 when quarterly earnings were zero. Today, market price is $500 and quarterly earnings are $0.01 per share. First time in history! What a company!!"

But the "big time spenders and money lenders" value the potential, especially of the drones, those spooky mysterious drones, with cameras mounted, looking at us all the time. Might be a CIA plot. Or the FBI. Those guys are definitely on the ball.

-not Gabe