Sunday, January 28, 2018

January 28, 2018, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Stocks, Bonds, Economy and Investing

January 28, 2018....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....(comments welcome)

STOCK PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS.....Brinker said:  "There are a lot of things out there in terms of the economy to like.  And that's why I've said, those of you who have ridden this wave of stock market gains, you have to give yourself a pat on the back. You have to congratulate yourself every once in a while when you're doing something extremely right. Because the bottom line is, these have been the times wherein you can make so much money in the stock market, that it is mind-boggling. Just look how much the market is up since the last major correction which bottomed in February 10, 2010 (Brinker misspoke the date).

Subscribers to the investment letter are well aware that we issued a buy signal at the bottom of that correction.....at 1829 in the S&P 500...... And the market, not counting dividends, has risen 57%..... since that time, and if you add in the dividends, it's over 60% total return since that buy signal that we published at the website after the close on February 10th, 2016 - that's a little less than two years ago - when we had the last major correction which went on for several months and bottomed finally on February 11th. We put our buy-signal after the close on the 10th - anybody buying mutual funds at the close on the 11th, actually bought in at the low of correction which was 1829. And since then a total return of over 60% in the S&P 500 Index. Pretty good, huh?  

Honey EC: That is very good, Mr. Brinker.  And I understand why you want to go back to your last fully invested - no cash-raised buy-signal, but the Wall Street Journal reported this today - about last year and this month:

In January 2018,  the S&P 500's 7.5% gain so far is the biggest since 1987....Stocks around the world have staged one of the best-ever starts to a year, a synchronized rally that has only gained momentum following 2017s sharp gains.

DOLLAR COST AVERAGE.... Brinker's Marketimer model portfolios are fully invested and he is recommending dollar-cost-averaging for new stock market money. 

BRINKER'S DEFINITION OF A BEAR MARKET,  MAJOR CORRECTION,  SMALL CORRECTION....Brinker defines a bear market as a decline of 20% or more, a major correction between 10% and 20%,  and a "noisy" correction as 10% or less. 

NO RECESSION, NO BEAR COMING......January 2018 Marketimer; Bob Brinker wrote:  "Marketimer economic outlook for 2018 does not anticipate a recession. This suggests that the risk of a bear market decline in excess of 20% is low, unless our economic outlook changes. In the absence of a recession, the most likely risk for the stock market is the development of a mi-term off-presidential election year correction. Whether such a   decline is a major correction of 10% to 20%, or a smaller decline of less than 10%, remains to be seen......" 

BOND/INTEREST RATES GOING UP.... BB said that he expects the Federal Reserve to raise rate 0.25% at the March FOMC meeting. 

MARKETIMER BOND FUND CHANGE COMING....Brinker told caller Brian from Reno that he plans to make changes to his Marketimer fixed income portfolio and also his balanced model portfolio III. BB said those changes will be announced in the February Marketimer which will be ready next Thursday.  

Honey EC: Several comments came in this afternoon, speculating about what those changes will be. It could be almost anything. Since there are only three bond funds (the same in both portfolios), perhaps he is adding another one.  Some think he may sell the fund that has large high-yield bond holdings. As Brinker likes to say: "We shall all know in the fullness of time." Stay tuned.... :)

HOUSING....BB: "New home sales are okay but will be volatile."   There was a  9.3% drop in December, but the rest of 2017 was a good year, and BB said there is no reason for concern because you "have to look at a longer time frame than month to month." And when you look at 2017.....new homes sales increased 8.3%, to total rate for the calendar year of 608,000.....Inventory in the housing market has been tight around the country.... 
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX....BB said:  "You have to be impressed....at its highest level since the second quarter of 2007....That's why I get really tired of hearing these negative comments from these negative nabobs out there. The reality is, they are not paying attention, they are not doing their homework. They are not even on the same page with reality. Very sad.....

BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX....BB said:  "is riding high right now....is now at 53.7, the highest level since March of 2001....So now we are talking about a Consumer Comfort Index very close to its highest level in almost 17 years - that is a major cord on the economic data front. 

BEAUTIFUL JOBLESS CLAIMS.... BB said: "And when you look at jobless claims, you see beauty. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have been way down, way, way down!"

ECONOMIC REPORTS SUMMATION.....Brinker rapped up his economic reports with this: "There are a lot of things out there in terms of the economy to like.  And that's why I've said, those of you who have ridden this wave of stock market gains, you have to give yourself a pat on the back. You have to congratulate yourself every once in a while when you're doing something extremely right. Because the bottom line is, these have been the times wherein you can make so much money in the stock market, that it is mind-boggling. Just look how much the market is up since the last major correction

==> Thanks to DRAHME, audio clip, nattering nabobs of negativism shot down

SOME DESERVED CROWING......BB did a little crowing about his Marketimer projection for 2017 which pretty much hit the nail on the head at 2.3% (annual).   He correctly said that 2.3% is a  "significant improvement" over 2016 - which was 1.5%.

NATIONAL DEBT/DEFICIT.... For the first time in several weeks, BB did not sound the alarm on about the deficit and national debt and mistakenly claim that "no one in Washington talks about it anymore."  Perhaps he missed this important step in the right direction: It’s Official=> President Trump Decreases the Debt to GDP Ratio in His First Year in Office – First Time in More than 50 Years!

===> Thanks DRAHME, audio clip of the week ahead.

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST AUTHOR SUMMARY:

Today’s guest this 28th day of January, 2018 was Tim O’Reilly, author of the book “WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up to Us.”   Thus Bob Brinker adds another interview devoted to a book by an author who has done some navel gazing and in doing so, sees the future.   Either Bob or someone else in the organization seems fascinated with these futurist authors. 
If you sat and watched paint dry instead of listening to the interview, I’d say you made better use of your time.
He said he wrote the book because of concerns about income inequality and the future of work.   Also mentioned that “tech” does what we want it to do and if that means getting rid of jobs then that must be what (some of us) want.
Bob brought up the proverbial taxi driver who paid a great deal of money for a taxi medallion who now finds his income threatened by ride services like Uber.  The guest said his brother drives a taxi in Maryland …  Bob interrupted rudely and said, “well, he didn’t pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for a taxi medallion…”   Now it was Tim’s turn to interrupt and he said that Yes, his brother did buy a medallion. 
So, that was the high point (or should I say low point) of the interview.  
In response to another question the guest wandered off into a long, long answer about the good and bad entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley.   The founders of Uber were just a couple of rich guys who wanted to get even richer, as an example. 
After the break, Bob asked “do we say too bad to people who got the shaft,” (from the introduction of technology.)   There was another long, rambling answer by the guest who ended up criticizing McDonalds as a company that had the means to pay its employees more, but doesn’t.
Bob asked if an employee’s economic value to an employer depends on the skills they bring to the job.   Tim replied that he didn’t think that was fair and this set off another minor back and forth, then a long speech by Tim ending with Apple as an example of a company whose three most important things are its employees, its customers and its suppliers.  Its investors are just along for the ride and don’t matter to Apple – so says Tim O’Reilly.
Bob pointed out that the investors being described are in the secondary market for the stock – Tim more or less agreed, but said in effect, an investor who owns a big chunk of stock has no right to demand that more of the corporation’s cash be returned to investors as dividends. 
After the break: 
·         What about calls to break up these outfits like Amazon, Facebook, etc?  Answer:  companies like these have to think about the systemic ecosystem in which they exist. 
·         Bernie from Westlake Village CA weighed in by asking the guest if he ever employed people and how many?   The guest said he employs about 500 people.  Bernie pointed out that artificially raising wages increases automation.  
·         Tim responded that the market dictates what skills are worth (a concept he seems to disagree with).   He said there is more to rates of pay than the simplistic notion of the market.  
·         Bob jumped in and hammered Wal Mart for making a big deal out of their announcement to raise wages from $9 to $11 per hour as a result of the tax cuts.  He criticized Wal Mart for keeping wages so low for so long and shorting employees on medical coverage for so long. 
·         Bob mentioned his theme that Congress should have indexed the minimum wage to inflation a long time ago and the guest agreed.
The guest gave such long winded answers that Bob had to interrupt him a couple of times to get the next question in.   I looked him up on the interweb, and he was born in 1954.  He is older than he sounded over the radio – I thought he was much younger. 
Honey here: This guest could go in the running for the all-time Moneytalk most boring - but your summary certainly made a "silk purse" out of it.  I got the strong feeling that Brinker was having a problem finding any periods when the Tim O'Reilly was having his one-man jabberfest. :) 
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Sunday, January 21, 2018

January 21, 2018, Bob Brinker's Marketimer, Stocks, Bonds, Economy and Investing

January 21, 2018....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....comments welcome

STOCKS....Bob Brinker did not talk about the incredible stock market, which went from 25,000 to 26,000 in just a matter of days.    And it looks like the market is saying "ho-hum" to the so-called shut-down. 

MARKETIMER MODEL PORFOLIOS I, II AND III.....Caller Bill in Springfield, a new subscriber, asked Brinker about portfolios I and II being presented as "current income is not a factor in this portfolio," but not P-III.  Brinker pointed out that P-I and II are growth portfolios, but P-III is balanced - stocks and bonds.  Since Bill was retiring in a couple of months, Brinker recommended P-III.

Honey EC: Clearly Marketimer portfolios I and II are for growth since they are 100% stock funds. The only differences between the two stock portfolios is the addition of a 10% holding in VDAIX in P-II.  Portfolio-III, which Brinker always recommends for those in or near retirement, is a balanced portfolio - 50% stock and 50% bonds. 

INTEREST AND MORTGAGE RATE RISES....BB said that we have now transitioned from Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening.  ==> Thanks to DRHAME, audio clip: Interest Rates, The Financial Media and their veracity or lack thereof.

DAY-TRADING....Brinker said that he gets really upset when he hears ads for day-trading, or moving money in and out of the market, because it is "very damaging." 

SIPC INSURANCE AT VANGUARD..... Caller Bill from Virginia has over $500,000 invested with Vanguard and was concerned about it being over the limit for SIPC insurance. Brinker said that when it comes to companies like Vanguard, he would not lose any sleep about it, or move any of the money. 

Honey EC: Include Schwab and Fidelity in those rock solid companies.

INCREASES IN TAX-SHELTERED CONTRIBUTIONS..... The amount that can be contributed to 401K, 403B, and 457 qualified programs has increased by $500 to $18,500. It is higher for those over 50.   Regular IRA is now at $5500 - over 50 - $6500. (Roth IRAs are after-tax money.) 

GE IS LOOKING LIKE A DISASTER AND MAY DAMAGE PENSIONS....Caller Rob from Lincoln is worried about his $3400 a month GE pension - saying it was underfunded by $30billion. Brinker could not give him much reassurance and pointed out that the stock had lost about 50% of its value.

==>Thanks to DRAHME, audio clip: Contribution limits; Brett in Wash; Rob in Lincoln about GE

BOB BRINKER SAID IT WOULDN'T HAPPEN: 

Apple, already the largest US taxpayer, anticipates repatriation tax payments of approximately $38 billion as required by recent changes to the tax law. A payment of that size would likely be the largest of its kind ever made.

Alabama will be the site of a new $1.6 billion Toyota Motor Corp (tm, +0.78%) and Mazda Motor Corp (mazda-motor) auto plant, a victory for President Donald Trump who had prodded manufacturers to build new U.S. facilities and threatened tariffs on foreign production, sources said on Tuesday.

Fiat Chrysler said this week that it would move production of its Ram heavy pickup trucks from Mexico to Michigan. Moving production of the Ram, which is mostly sold in the United States and Canada, will mean that Fiat Chrysler will not risk paying steep import duties likely to apply if NAFTA is rolled-back.

ECONOMY..... According to BB is "doing fine." 

LAND OF CRITICAL MASS....BB teaches that it means having a nest filled with enough eggs to live as your own boss without alarm clocks. 

MULTI-MILLIONAIRE CALLERS AND THEIR PROBLEMS.....

1.  Dennis in Kansas City, net worth of $1.25 million and a pension of $57,000 per year was worried about how long his money would last using the 4% withdrawal that Brinker recommends. Brinker explained that Dennis was on "cruise control" in  the Land of Critical Mass, and due to the dividends, capital gains and growth, Dennis would likely be a net saver using the 4% rule.

2.  Caller Clark from Baton Rouge, net worth $2.3 million and $40,000 pension wanted advice about raising $180,000 to send his 26 year old son to law school. He was considering taking out a loan on his home which is worth $200,000. Brinker wondered if he needed to borrow it all it once, but seemed non-committal, and pretty much left it in Bill's (obviously) capable hands. 

3. Caller Brett in Washington, net worth $3.4 million at age 60 has Critical Mass, but will soon retire and is thinking about using Roth money to pay off his house which has a mortgage at 2.78%.  Brinker said that was the kind of mortgage that the bank would send a stretch-limousine to pick him up if he decides to pay it off. 

WEEK AHEAD MEBBE....Thanks to DRHAME audio clip: The week ahead and home sales

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY:

Bob’s guest this 21st day of January 2018 was Leslie Berlin, the author of the recently released book titled “Troublemakers:  Silicon Valley’s Coming of Age.”  She is the historian for the Silicon Valley archives at Stanford University.
There was some puckering at the outset of the interview when Bob welcomed her to the program and was greeted by silence.  Seems they lost the connection but Bob handled it like the broadcast professional that he is and in a few moments, Ravi got Leslie on the line.
Here’s what I got out of the interview before the half hour mark:
·         5 American high tech firms are among the most highly valued companies in the world.
·         50% of people asked said they cannot live without their cell phone.
·         Robert Noyce, a pioneer in microchips does not get enough recognition for his contributions in the late 60’s and early 70’s.
·         There was some inside baseball chit chat about pioneers and Bob Taylor was mentioned as the guy who convinced the Dept. of Defense to develop the Arpanet (? spelling ) precursor to the internet.
·         IBM and Microsoft are not covered extensively in the book.
After the break the author mentioned the first woman to take a tech firm public, Sandy Kurtzig (?) and the ASK software company. 
·         In 1974 it became illegal to deny women credit.
·         Work place harassment laws were passed in 1977 – therefore when tech was in its infancy there was still pervasive discrimination against women in tech.
·         More inside baseball chit chat on Bob Noyce, Bob Taylor, Steve Jobs, Gordon Moore.
·         Noyce and Moore were founders of Intel.
·         Noyce was running the tech operations at Fairchild Camera and Instruments and it was making money but the company thought he was too young to be in charge.
·         He bailed and the rest is history. 
·         The Valley is linked to countries outside the US by virtue of immigrants working in tech.
·         Two-thirds of people working in the valley in certain companies were born outside the US.
·         Either there were no calls after the half hour, or none were worthy of air time.
After the interview ended Bob allowed as how he bought shares of Intel for 70 dollars per share when they were getting going, and had only 4 million shares being traded.
Honey here: Thanks very much, Frankj.....I notice that the number one tech news this week didn't get mentioned before or during the guest today, and that is Apple moving several $billions back to the USA and will be giving Americans thousands of new jobs.

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