Sunday, January 29, 2017

January 29, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Stock, Bond, Economy Commentary

January 29, 2017....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....(comments welcome)

STOCK MARKET.... The only comment that Brinker made today about the stock market is that the it has had a great run for several years.

PENNY STOCKS....BB said: "I'm not a penny stock fan."

BOND FUNDS VS INDIVIDUAL BONDS ....(Brinker was talking about muni-bonds, but the same rule applies to all bonds.)  BB said to caller Bill from Modesto, who owns individual bonds: If you hold these bonds to maturity, and they are quality bonds......you are going to receive your interest payments and your principal back at maturity.....That is an option that you have when you own individual bonds. It is not an option when you own a bond fund. A bond fund is going to move in an inverse manner to interest rates....A major distinction between owning a bond and owning a bond fund.....

MARKETIMER INCOME PORTFOLIO....BB said: "That's a great call from Bill because that's the reason that we are holding down the duration of the bond funds that we use in the Marketimer investment letter. We don't see the benefit here of taking a lot of interest rate risk....We would rather take some credit market risk- which we are comfortable with and has worked out very well.

Honey EC: Here are the three bond funds that Brinker has in the Marketimer income portfolio.
Metrowest Unconstrained: MWCRX;
Osterweis Strategic: OSTIX;
DoubleLine Low-Duration Bond Fund:  DLSNX. 
FOURTH QUARTER 2016 ECONOMY DECLINED...Brinker said it was expected, but the GDP came in lower at 1.9%. Thanks to dRahme: short clip from hour-one of BB's explanation of why economy cooled. 

WHEN RATES GO UP BOND FUND NAV GOES DOWN.... Caller Pat from San Rafael said he was watching a Vanguard webcast with CEO, Bill McNabb, who said that  he wants interest rates going up for bond funds. He said that as long as your time horizon was longer than the duration of the fund, you will make money off of rising rates.....Can you clarify that for me?  I thought the NAV went down with rising interest rates. Thanks to dRahme, we have Brinker's extensive analysis of rates in this clip beginning at 7.10.

FEDERAL RESERVE WILL NOT RAISE RATES NEXT WEEK, BUT.... BB says he does not expect any increase in federal funds rates at the next week's FOMC 2-day meeting. However, as you heard in the clip above, if the economy picks up steam in the future, The Fed expects to begin normalizing interest rates this year and going forward.

MORE THAN 4% IN ONE STOCK - PICK UP THE BALL AND LEAVE THE COURT.....Bill in Cedar Rapids has the majority of his $1.5 million invested in his company stock. Brinker was horrified. The call is on this short clip - thanks to dRahme, starting at 6 minutes in. 

REPORTS COMING OUT NEXT WEEK...Thanks to dRahme: short clip of BB's reports and analysis for next week from hour-three.

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY: THE CURSE OF CASH - DOING AWAY WITH BIG BILLS. 

Today, January 29, 2017 guest Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor, explained the advantages of phasing out large denomination bills. The professor is the author of  The Curse of Cash
Under President Nixon the US got rid of the $1000 bill. Now the guest thinks it is time to gradually phase out the $100 and $50 bills.

There are 34 one-hundred dollar bills in circulation for every man, woman and child in this country, yet 95% of people have never touched one. The professor argues that most of these large bills are “unaccounted for.” While his aim is not to go to a cashless society, he says that large denomination bills make it easier for criminals to move money around for illicit purposes. Among other things, we learned that if you fill a briefcase with ten dollar bills, it will contain $100,000.

Fifth grade math problem: If one briefcase can hold $100,000 in ten dollar bills, how much money can a briefcase hold if stuffed with $100 bills? 

Don’t phase bills out like the country of India did. They recalled the 1000 and 500 rupee bills, announcing that they would not be accepted in trade “four hours hence,” and people had 50 days to turn them in. (Can you say STAMPEDE?) These denomination bills were worth $14.80 and $7.40 respectively and comprised 86% of the money supply. The guest said the transition was “disruptive but popular.”

Bob posited that with inflation, the large denomination bills have a place. The professor didn’t bite.

After the break Bob and Kenneth Rogoff touched on bitcoins. The guest said bitcoins represent a great technology but they will not become a substitute for cash, credit cards or debit cards. They are fine for anonymous transactions which is precisely the problem governments will not allow them widespread use… too hard to track.

Tracking (and being tracked) was what Joe from CT called about. He said removing the large denomination bills was the first step toward a government-controlled, digital currency, mentioning the “Fed coin.” This is digital currency on a chip. The guest said his book discusses this, and again, mentioned interdicting crimes relying on money laundering. He does not recommend getting rid of paper currency completely, we should keep a physical currency, just smaller denomination bills.

Irv calling from Naples FL wanted to know how you’re supposed to pay for a used car costing $5 or $7 thousand dollars… are you supposed to pay for it with a stack of $20’s? He got the brush off too, the guest said there would be some inconveniences.

Ray in Atlanta carries around hundred dollar bills regularly – and so do his family members. He has two in his wallet right now. The guest took a gratuitous swipe at President Donald Trump during this call by speculating that maybe he would recall the hundred dollar bills with Ben Franklin’s picture on it and replace them with his picture.

Leanne in CA continued the pushback saying that she is no criminal but likes to do certain transactions in cash. She said she uses credit cards for web purchases and for business, but likes the privacy that cash affords.

Doug in Iowa almost missed his turn at bat but Bob got him back on. He said while dining out with 3 people the tab could run to $150 and are you supposed to whip out a wad of 20’s? He was making a point about a shopping cart a Wal Mart easily adding up to over $100 and he has seen people paying for purchases with this size bill. Bob cut him off.

The interesting call came from Cathy age 61, in Utah who uses cash exclusively. She must be off the grid because she said she has no credit cards, no checking account, no debt and goes into town to pay her electric bill and her insurance. She did not say how she pays her phone bill, presumably she has a phone since she was calling the show. In any event she uses cash. The question not asked: where do you GET that cash?

Extra credit math problem: If a briefcase will hold $100K in ten dollar bills, how much money will that same briefcase hold if the number of bills inside is divided equally between $50’s and $100’s? 

Honey here: That was a very interesting subject and thank you for the great summary. I noticed that several of the callers really got riled up. As you said, Cathy in Utah, took a lot of pride in paying cash for literally everything. She used up her time and did not say whether or not she uses big bills. And as you said, how does she get that cash. Unless she is only working for cash, she has to have some affiliation with the "grid." 

BTW: FrankJ....I'm going to flunk your class. I didn't get the fifth-grade question - never mind the extra credit. Math is not my cuppa tee. :(

JEFFCHRISTIE'S MONEYTALK FINAL EXAM QUESTION (AND CLUE)

Bob Brinker told a caller if he had an advisor who recommend taking money out of an IRA and putting it into a fixed annuity he would:

A. Think about it.
B. Do it.
C. Fire him on the spot.
D. Act immediately.




Honey here: Thanks Jeffchristie..... I laughed at the way Brinker said that. He almost sounded like he was the one who had practiced saying it instead of this famous man. :) 

Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK  
KION 1460  Monterey 

Sunday, January 22, 2017

January 22, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary of Stock, Bond and Economic Comments

January 22, 2017...Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today....(comments welcome)

STOCK MARKET.....Brinker comments: Dow now at 19,827 and S&P at 2271 - very close to all-time-closing highs.....lacking volatility recently - going sideways. Investors are looking for changes in policy - a reduction in the corporate tax rates.....a possible reduction in individual tax rates....

Honey EC: Brinker told a caller today that he is still recommending dollar-cost-averaging on weakness for new money going into the stock market. He also said that he was watching all indicators very closely and his market outlook could change. We've been down this road before -  Christmas and long vacations can get very expensive. :) 

WILL  2017 BE A BEAR LIKE 2000.....Caller Mike from Glendora wanted to walk down year 2000 bear market memory lane.  Brinker was happy to join him:

TWO REASONS FOR BEAR MARKET - ONE IS KNOWN.... BB said:  The differences between the top in the first quarter of 2000 and right now. One is known and the one forecastable but unknowable in advance...You had historically high overvaluation in 2000. In fact, the S&P 500 was trading at close to 30 times earnings....Historically,  the S&P  trades in the area of 16 times earnings.....That was one of the reasons that we issued the sell signal in January of 2000....close to the all-time-high.....

SECOND FORECASTABLE REASON FOR BEAR NOT KNOWABLE.....BB continued: The other thing that was going on then was the impending recession in  that happened in 2001....Right now, we are no where near 30 times earnings in the S&P 500, so the valuation disparity that existed then does not exist now. Having said that, the market is generously valued. It is not bizarrely valued like then.....Certainly not sitting on  bargain table right now. The other factor, which is unknowable, but forecastable - right or wrong - is the recession.

NO ECONOMIC INDICATION OF AN IMPENDING RECESSION RIGHT NOW..... BB continued: That's where you have a real problem right now - forecasting a recession because you don't see in the economic data flow, you don't see the kinds of conditions that would bring about recession right now. So in the absence of a recession, it's more difficult to be looking at a  bear....

BRINKER IS NOT TAKING HIGH RISK FOR HIMSELF.....Caller Mike (age 62)  said he was 100% invested in stocks.
 Brinker replied: That's a big number.....Why take on a high risk right now, I'm certainly not doing it....I'd be about 50 to 60% equities....What we have said is dollar-cost-average during periods of weakness. We also publish a model III that is 50-50 portfolio. 
Honey EC: If Brinker was being truthful about his own investing, one would have to conclude that he is not following Marketimer model portfolio I and II - which are both 100% equity funds. 

PRESIDENT DON'T MATTER TO  THE STOCK MARKET.....BB said:  I have said this for 31 years: Investors have a tendency to attach too much importance to politics.....I think this business of attaching politics to the stock market is misdirected....I'm not saying ignore it, but in my opinion, it is not the driver of investment returns and that is what I care about.

MARKETIMER PORTFOLIOS BOND FUND SWITCH.... Caller Jerry from Florida said:  "In your newsletter you actually switched bond fund from the DoubleLine, and I wanted to ask you what the reason for the switch was...."
Brinker replied: They are short term bond fund....We feel very strongly at the newsletter that this is the time to keep your duration short. We had a great year with an annual return of 4.7%....Here in 2017, we have further shortened our duration. Our duration is down to 1.3 years and that is the shortest duration we've ever had.....I have no problem with including some credit risk in there....Our primary credit  risk holding 2016 did fantastically....Yes, you can invest in the bond market - keep your durations short. You can have credit risk as a trade-off to the low interest rate risk....And I think you are going to see the Federal Reserve increase interest rates if the economy remains on track. 
Honey here: Two weeks ago when a caller asked about why Brinker sold DLTNX in his income portfolio and his balanced model portfolio III, Brinker said he would talk about it "next week." Brinker then took two weeks off and Moneytalk was re-runs.  

Clearly, Brinker thinks interest rates are headed up and the economy is going to do well. The cash from selling DoubleLine Total Return Fund was put into MWCRX in the balanced portfolio. In the income portfolio, there are now only three fund holdings - the cash from the DLTNX sale divided between them: MWCRX, OSTIX and DLSNX. 

FEDERAL RESERVE DUAL MANDATES... a) Maximum employment b) Price stability.
Short clip by dRahme: Brinker explains how Fed views these mandates 

HEDGE FUND THAT TRIPLED OVER 5 YEARS....Caller Ken from Carmel had a tax question about a hedge fund that he had owned for 5 1/2 years that had tripled in value. Thanks to dRahme, beginning at 3.20 in this clip, Brinker gives Ken a lengthy and negative answer. 

Thanks to dRahme: Short clip of what's coming up next week in the "Canyons of Wall Street."
=> Existing home sales
=> New home sales
=> FHFA Housing Index
=> Jobless claims number - job market continues to improve
=> Leading Economic indicators - economy gradually growing
=> Busy earnings week - examples

FRANKJ'S MONEYTALK GUEST-AUTHOR SUMMARY

Bob’s third hour guest on January 22, 2017 was David Smick, author of the recently published book, “The Great Equalizer, How Main Street Capitalism Can Create An Economy for Everyone.” Mr. Smick is the Chair and CEO of Johnson Smick International, a financial advisory firm in Washington DC. A previous book by him is, “The World is Curved,” written as a response to Thomas Friedman’s book, “The World is Flat.”

As to why he wrote the book, the guest said that half of the households in this country don’t even have $500 saved for something like a car repair emergency. And, there is a distinct lack of upward mobility today, unlike previous generations who were able to climb the economic ladder. The guest cited a lack of small business start-ups for this stagnation. “Goliath always wins,” was how he summed up the state of affairs in Washington DC today where the government has been taken over by corporate capitalists.

The conversation quickly turned to the new president, Donald Trump. The guest said that he is pretty good at the “top down manipulation of CEOs.” He said exports are only 13% of our GDP but did not expand on this or make a connection back to his statement about CEOs. Bob asked, “if you were a CEO who had off shored your work force, why would you bring manufacturing back?” The guest said they’re not doing it. Then he seemed to give some reasons why some “bringing back” might happen: corporate tax relief, lower health care costs, and that some jobs might be filled by robots.

He stressed that start-ups are the “equalizer” because they create jobs here whereas job creation by US multinationals takes place mainly overseas.

There was some discussion of the border adjustment tax in lieu of a tariff. The BAT is like a Value Added Tax and is therefore more compliant with the rules set up by the World Trade Organization. He said the Trump administration loves tariffs because they make a bold political statement, but if anything along those lines takes place it will likely be a BAT. Bob asked about “a box of widgets going from Indiana to Mexico and one coming into the US from Mexico.” The BAT would have more of an effect on the price of the Mexican widgets than the US-produced widgets.

You can find all kinds of references and discussion on this border adjustment tax by Googling those three words.

Moneytalk regulars might want to take note of the guests comments about the strong dollar. He said there is $20 Trillion in dollar denominated debt all over the world. If the dollar strengthens (and he thinks this is a goal of the new administration) this could prompt some defaults in emerging market debt. As well, it could affect equities in those markets.

Bob wrapped things up at about 3:50 pm.

Honey here: Thanks FrankJ - interesting interview. I know that you lost power for a short while during that third hour. The only thing important that you missed was when Mr. Smick said that if the dollar became too strong it would create  problems for the Central Bank of Europe. That could cause them to put pressure on Chair Yellen not to raise interest rates. 

Now wouldn't that be a fine kettle of fish for Brinker now that for the second time, he has done an all-out push for very short duration in all bond fund holdings.


JEFFCHRISTIE'S MONEYTALK FINAL EXAM QUESTION

Bob Brinker said if the economy takes off we will have a whole new set of:

A. Tools.
B. Books.
C. Gremlins.
D. Golf clubs.
ANSWER

Radio Stations:
710KNUS Denver
WNTK  
KION 1460  Monterey 

Sunday, January 15, 2017

January 15, 2017, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Re-Run Monologues and Old Spliced Calls

January 15, 2017...Bob Brinker was NOT live on Moneytalk today......(comments welcome)

Even though, Bob Brinker never has it announced as such, the program was once again PRETEND-to-be-live with pre-recorded monologues and spliced OLD calls.

So what's up with Bob Brinker? I hope he is not ill because since  November 20th, when he was live for two hours, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk has been vast majority of re-runs.

How many years could he get away with redoing old monologues and splicing together old calls while pretending to be live and continuing to advertise Marketimer and Moneytalk on demand?
November 27th: Re-Runs
December 11th: Re-Runs
December 25th: Re-Runs
January 1st: Re-Runs 
January 15th: Re-Runs