Sunday, May 24, 2015

May 24, 2015, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Stocks, Bonds, Economic and Investing Summary

May 24, 2015....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk live today. (comments welcome)

STOCK MARKET....Brinker recommended fully invested asset allocation today. For those who are retired or near retirement, he recommends a  50-50 stocks and bonds allocation. He also recommended dollar-cost-averaging for new money.  Brinker's latest S&P 500 Index target range is the "low-2200s going forward."  However in the latest Marketimer, he says:
"Given the fact that the stock market has not experienced a major correction in 43 months, we would not be surprised to see the periods of profit taking and a possible short-term pullback as investors cash in on the enormous gains of recent years."
STOCK MARKET REACT TO SMALL RATE INCREASES....Brinker said: Right now we're talking about the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise the short term rates one quarter of 1%… Eventually I think that it will be more than that.  When you think about the normalization of short-term rates I think I would be looking at 3 1/2 to 4% eventually as normalization.  But I think that is down the road.  Even Chair Yellen said that that could be a period of years – we shall see because this is all data dependent.  But to answer your question specifically, what will the impact be of a Federal Reserve rate hike.  Let's say they do raise the rate one quarter of 1% this year.  Or maybe they raise it twice, one quarter at a time to one half of 1%, what effect would that be on the stock market?  I think it is hard to imagine that a quarter or half a point on the Federal Funds rate would have a dramatic impact on the stock market.

ANY OLD EXCUSE FOR A STOCK MARKET CORRECTION.... Brinker continued: Now if investors want to use that as an excuse for correction, so be it.  You know we have not had a major correction since 2011.  And so it may be that investors will use any excuse for a market correction but in terms of impact on the economy, showing off the recovery, a quarter or a half percent – I just don't see it

WHAT ARE EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS....Brinker said: A lot of people don't realize that exchange traded funds – the key word there is funds – they are exchange traded mutual funds… They trade like a stock.  In a sense, they trade like a closed end fund.  The exception is, with exchange traded mutual funds, they are almost at exactly, or very close to, the net asset value.  Whereas with closed-end funds, sometimes due to the supply and demand, and the limited trading, they can trade at a variance from their net asset value.  That is not true in a mutual fund.  A mutual fund trades at its actual net asset value at the close of the trading day on an ongoing basis.

INTEREST RATES/FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR, JANET YELLEN.....Brinker comments: Chair Janet Yellen was on the rubber chicken circuit on Friday in Providence Rhode Island.  She made some interesting comments – not shocking comments – I don't expect to see too many shocking comments out of chair Janet.  She is more interested in levelheaded policy… She talked about a number of topics, including the labor market.  She said the labor market was getting better.  But she said, quote, we are not there yet".  Meaning that she doesn't think the labor market is ultimately where she wants it to be even though there certainly has been good progress in the labor market.  She went on to say… That if the economy continues to do better – as she expects it will - then, quote, it will be appropriate at some point this year, unquote, to start raising rates.  

CHAIR YELLEN STATES FED'S MONETARY POLICY.....Brinker continued:  So this isn't the first time that chair Janet has commented publicly on monetary policy since the end of March.…  She has reminded us ad nauseam that all of the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve are data dependent.…  We have been told repeatedly by the Fed Chair.…  We also know as the data keeps flowing, we observe that data in order to find out whether it is leaning in that direction of the increase in short-term rates that chair Janet says will be appropriate at some point this year if the economy continues to improve as she thinks it will.…

EVERYONE ON EVERY CONTINENT KNOWS RATES WILL RISE -- SOMETIME.....Brinker continued: There is probably no one left on any major continents of the world who don't already know this.  We have been looking for the Federal Reserve to actually raise short-term rates for some time.  And it certainly appears that if the economy continues to improve, we could see the first rate hike down the road.…

Honey EC: Yep, Brinker made changes to his fixed income holdings to lower duration back in 2013, including selling all Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund and Vanguard High Yield Fund. What he put in their places performed very poorly by comparison. So he is certainly aware that it has been "some time," and his followers know it too. I submit that making these costly changes so far in advance negates his bragging rights when rates finally do rise. 
  
INTEREST RATE NORMALCY WOULD BE 4%.....Brinker commented:   Janet Yellen said that the best way for monetary policy to proceed would be by proceeding cautiously, which I would expect to mean that it will be several years before the Federal Funds rate will be back to its normal longer run level.…  If you're wondering what would be a general area of normalcy, for the Federal Funds rate, which has been held close to zero since the end of 2008.  A general level of normalcy would be in the vicinity of 4% – 3 1/2, 3 3/4, 4%.…  Something in that vicinity would be normal for the Federal Funds rate.…  So it looks like from this comment from the Federal Chair, that it could take quite a while for the Federal Funds rate to normalize in a 4% vicinity somewhere down the road.

FOMC TWO CRITERIA FOR INCREASING RATES (LABOR MKT AND INFLATION).... Brinker continued:  Chair Janet also commented on the two criteria that the FOMC has for increasing short-term rates.  She said, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions - that's one - and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2% over the medium term… Chair Janet also commented about the economy - and  said that the US seems well-positioned for continued growth.…

THAT EXTRA $700 IN YOUR WALLET.....Brinker continued: And one of the things that she is looking at is the fact that purchasing power – has been increased by about $700 per household on an average basis as a result of lower gasoline prices.  I know it doesn't sound like lot of money, but the reality is $700 per household - additional consumer discretionary spending power - it is significant enough to provide a boost to consumer spending.

Honey EC:  First caller of the day, George from New York, challenged Brinker and Yellen about the $700 that is supposed to be going into everyone's pocket now. He wanted to know in what time frame and indicated that Brinker did not say whether it was a week, month or year. Brinker became furious with George and talked over him for a long time and then clammed up and left poor George twisting in the wind.  Then abruptly, Brinker said thank you and hung up. Having listened to the tape and transcribing Brinker's exact words, I can see that George was correct. Brinker did not specify the time frame, but it seems logical that it would be a year.

BRINKER LUVS JANET YELLEN....Brinker said: May I also say this about Chair Janet.  I think that in her first year as Fed Chair – and she's now in her second year – I think she's doing a marvelous job - I think she is doing a marvelous job!  There was never a question, never a question about her credentials.…  I always thought it made good sense to put Janet Yellen into the Fed Chair and crash down the glass ceiling at the Federal Reserve on the Chair.  And that is what she has done.…  And I think she is doing a splendid job 17 months in as the Chair.

BRINKER'S REPORT ON GREECE.... Brinker said: Well it's still going on, the so-called negotiations with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, the newly elected top dog in Greece.  That meeting that occurred this past week in Latvia failed to yield a breakthrough on the bailout funding.  There have already been to gargantuan bailouts of Greece, now they want to third.  They are not going to get it unless they can make a deal and those that have been bailing out Greece are nervous about making a deal because Greece held an election, elected Prime Minister Tsipras.  He was elected on a platform of where not to take it anymore – my words not he has – as a consequence we had a breakdown in trust between the sovereign nation of Greece and what it owes, and whether it's got to make good on the payments that it owes.  Prime Minister Tsipras wants to have relief on pensions, he wants to have relief on sales taxes, yet he doesn't want to do all the things his predecessors promised to do.  See the problem?  He cannot hold an election and walk away from the deal because you lose credibility, that's what you're looking at.

Honey EC: This blog gets lots of hits from Greece -- also Ukraine and Russia.

FRANKJ'S SUMMARY OF THIRD HOUR GUEST SPEAKER:

Bob’s third hour guest today was Edward Kleinbard, a tax expert and law and business professor at University of Southern California.   The professor has written a book titled We Are Better Than This: How Government Should Spend Our Money

According to the professor, the question of whether we are taxed too much or too little is not the right question we should be arguing about.  It reflects a basic misunderstanding of the facts.  He said Congressmen are not the smartest bunch but they do have finely tuned antennae  and the public’s gripes with the tax system register loud and clear.  (Ed. Comment:  I like this allusion to Congress as insects.  It goes along with the saying:  Congress is interested in you as a taxpayer, much the same as fleas are interested in dogs.) 

 Instead, the professor would have us consider what useful things should the government do and which of those things can we afford?  

Bob asked the guest to explain how taxes became the third rail of politics, citing Walter Mondale’s statement in 1984 that he would raise taxes if elected.   The guest didn’t answer directly but if the election results are any indication, the message did not resonate with voters:  Mondale won electoral votes only in Washington D.C., and in his home state of Minnesota where he eked out a victory by less than 3800 votes.    The professor pointed out that 1) he voted for Mondale, and 2) we are the lowest taxed (as a percentage of national income) of the largest 34 world economies, but “we are at the top in whining.” 

Bob pointed out that in California taxes can run as high as 57% -- a way of sounding out the professor on just how much is “enough.”   This gave the professor an opportunity to state what must be one of the major points of his book:  we don’t need more taxes heaped on top earners, we need more revenue.  He mentioned a Value Added Tax.

Bob held the reins loose and let the professor gallop ahead.  Seventy percent of transfer payments made by the government  go to the elderly and the number of elderly will double over the next 25 years, so revenues must go up.   He wants more money to go to the poor, so revenues must go up.   He channeled Paul Krugman saying that when government can borrow at 2-3%  “we’re leaving money on the table” by not borrowing more and spending more.  

Editorial comment from FrankJ:  This is when MoneyTalk regulars pounded the table and shouted “What happens when rates normalize, professor?”  

The professor launched into an outpouring of ideas and statements.  
  
·        We confuse “good politics” with free markets (he called it market triumphalism).  He characterized this as the Republican’s view and said it is “fundamentally immoral.”

·        Any interference with the market must be suspect.

·        There has been a “descent to narcissism.”  

·        Great luck helps us succeed.  He said, “We (the successful) have been lucky at every turn of our lives.”

·        Insurance is a principal role of government.

·        We don’t choose our parents.  (Presumably he meant some are lucky and some unlucky.”)
·        “Government should do something about that.” 
 
·        “Government can mitigate outcomes”  (it) can invest to make a wealthier and happier society.

·        We spend a disproportionate amount on the military. 
 
·        We have a screwed up healthcare system.  The ACA did not go far enough.  The economics of insurance means we must get everyone into the insurance pools.  

·        And the one you were waiting for:  Government needs to invest more in education.”  We need better equality of opportunity – we spend more on rich kids than on poor kids. 

There were only three callers.  Last week the first caller missed his turn, and this week the first caller, Gus, listening on KXL in Portland OR almost missed his.   Gus’s question was right in the professor’s wheelhouse:   “What about reducing tax expenditures?”    Starship Trekkies know that “tax expenditures” is fancy talk for tax deductions and tax credits.   The guest was off to the races after assuring us this call was not a set up.   Answer:  yes, the tax code should be revised – for example, the mortgage interest deduction allows people to buy a 4 bedroom house, when all they need is a 3 bedroom house.    Professor Kleinbard, better check with the National Assoc. of Realtors on this one, they’re a major political contributor and one might suspect the reason is to keep the mortgage interest deduction in place. 

Keith from Rochester called and rightfully pointed out that there was no mention of waste by the professor.  He said something else that caused Bob to hit the dump button so it did not go out on the air.

It was around here at 47 minutes into the third hour  that the professor said “what makes government great is that it exercises sovereign power via the tax code.”     I have tried to quote accurately, but the archive is not available on KSFO for me to check,  so if this is not accurate, I hope someone will jump in.  

Caller Bill took issue with the professor’s criticism of our health care system.  He said it may be expensive, but it is the best.  He said before Medicare came on line, we didn’t pay much, but the government’s involvement drove costs up.   The professor disagreed and among other things said that the US has the highest infant mortality rate of any developed country.   

Bob wrapped up the interview at about 3:50. 

JEFFCHRISTIE'S MONEYTALK FINAL EXAM QUESTION
Bob Brinker calls non traded REITS:

A) A shark attack.
B) A fraud.
C) A travesty.
D) A con game.

There are two correct answers.
ANSWER
ANSWER
Summary posted at 7:50pm PDT

67 comments:

Jeffchristie said...

Bob's first caller George was a nut job. He said he didn't graduate from college. After hearing him talk, I wondered if he graduated from grade school.

Honeybee said...

Last week we got some interesting comments from a Bob Brinker fan that had moved from Pebble Beach to Thailand.

Truth is, this blog gets a sizable number of hits from there. Ukraine and Russia are second and third after the United States. Here is a list of the top countries around the world that visited this blog last week:

United States

Ukraine

Russia

Thailand

France

Italy

Greece

Germany

Indonesia

Ireland

Bob (not THAT Bob) said...

Honeybee,

If it is not a lot of trouble, could you please also delete my comment regarding the other poster's comment?

Thank you very much!

Anonymous said...

Brinker is delayed broadcast on Utah's Big Talker 860am KKAT from 6-9pm MDT

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Honeybee said...

Anonymous, you can get another station and listen online now. We are halfway into the second hour.

Honeybee said...

Bob Not That Bob.... I did as you asked.

Just so you know....I think you can delete your own posts on this blog. Look for the little garbage can at the bottom of your post. That should give you the option to delete.

John S. said...

Kudos to Bob's last hour guest and to Bob for having the courage & decency to have him on the show.
I will elaborate later.

Bob (not THAT Bob) said...

Honeybee,

Thank you for deleting my post.

I am a bit confused about the ability to delete my own posts, as I do not see the garbage can icon that you referenced.

I checked both Firefox and Explorer and I don't see the ability to delete on either one?

Maybe a pig discovered the garbage cans and (thinking they contained gently-used food scraps) ran off with them?

Anonymous said...

As a physician, I find that Prof. Kleinbard has it backwards. Bigger government is not the solution to healthcare. Government in fact created perverse incentives in the health care markets going back to WWII, and when people respond in a rational way to the now unfree markets, big government claims it is the solution to the problems it in fact caused, in a transparent attempt to push to their goal of single payer. Mr. Obama admitted this.
Regarding taxes: the fiscal situation in the US would be solved if the federal government were returned to performing only those activities that are constitutionally approved - i.e. powers that are limited and enumerated. We the People have had enough of big, unconstitutional government. And we don't need arrogant, know it all Professors like Kleinbard and Gruber forcing it down our throats.
I laughed out loud when he gave his solution to increased opportunity for education being increased funding. There is NO data that this does anything for kids; it certainly however helps the NEA, big Democrat party supporters. Your liberal social welfare policies have destroyed the black family in the inner city; how can you live with yourself, professor? How about vouchers so parents have freedom to choose better schools?
Then there was drivel about income inequality and "luck". Right out of the DNC/Obama talking point playbook. "You didn't build that, somebody else did", right Professor? Professor, our equality is our natural rights and equal justice under the law. Check your Declaration of Independence. There is no right to equality of outcome, nor should there be.
I was very disappointed that Bob did not challenge this guy enough.

Bluce said...

Kudos to The Doctor!

My thoughts exactly!

Anonymous said...

Very grateful to blog author for the coverage of Bob Brinkers Show , each week.Your summations and insights are very informative.

tfb said...

However the Doc is, my hat is off to you. Kudos...

tfb

tfb said...

suppose to be who ever...sigh...

tfb

Gawd said...

Honeybee, count me as another follower of your great blog and retired in Thailand. Like “Anonymous” from Thailand commented last week, I believe much credit for my happy retirement situation should go to Bob Brinker. And this is despite his having missed the right call for the 2008 debacle, like virtually everyone else, and mostly due to his rather stellar 2000-2003 market top/bottom calls, unlike most others. If I had not largely gotten out of the market and into a safe haven money market fund in mid 2000 and right back in the day after his Tuesday, March 11, 2003 “BUY!” call on the Marketimer subscriber bulletin, I would probably still be working in a job I hate in the USA and missing out on one fine and fun early retirement while I am still young, healthy and good-looking enough to enjoy it! Lol. Ok, that last characteristic isn’t exactly necessary to have a great time here in the Land of Smiles, but thought I’d throw it in anyway.

Brinker would likely say my retirement outcome was all on me because I made all the decisions myself, from the decision to listen to his show or not, which pieces of advice to follow, which ones to ignore or modify for my own peace of mind and so on. And, ultimately, he would be right about that I suppose.

Oh, and a political aside, but one related directly to stock market gains vs stock market crashes, property value gains vs property value plunges, private-sector U.S. jobs creation vs massive job losses, generation of U.S. household wealth vs catastrophic destruction of it, and all of our retirement futures; As long as the American electorate does not support and vote into critically important positions the usual revisionist history hucksters and hustlers who denigrate the “Democrat” party, falsely claim “liberal social welfare policies have destroyed the black family in the inner city”, insist on misrepresenting the clear context and specific elements President Obama was referring to in his “You didn’t build “that”” comment, and further insist on misrepresenting and trivializing the decisive issue of income inequality as if it were a call for everyone to be paid the same ("equality of outcome") when it never has been such, then we ought to see many more years of positive results in those mentioned economic factors instead of the shockingly consistent Great Depressions, Great Recessions and historic crashes on all fronts we typically get when those kinds of folks are at the helm and getting their way on policy.

John D. said...

Thanks to Doc Anonymous for spewing just about every wrong wing point on the subject.
Methinks he/she is just another Fox Noise fed shill.
And by the way...there is no party here named the "Democrat party" ..There is however a Democratic Party.

Anonymous said...

Internet denizen said:

Honeybee, regarding your list of countries "around the world" that visit your blog. I might make you aware that users who employ anonymizer software such as TOR etc. can spoof where they are actually logging in. For example, they could all be from the same person living right next door to you.

Honeybee said...

Internet Denizen....So you think that Google can be fooled about the country of origin of posters?

That is where the info came from -- straight from the stats they post on my blog.

Personally, I don't think so....

Honeybee said...

I second Bluce. KUDOS to the physician!!!

Honeybee said...

Gawk....thanks for sharing your opinions of Brinker and political views.

I have never been to Thailand, so please tell me why one would choose to leave the US and retire there.

Honeybee said...

It's okay, tfb we knew what you meant - and I agree.

Honeybee said...

NotThatBob.....I guess I was mistaken about posters being able to delete their own posts. As moderator, I can't view the blog from the same perspective.

Ghost of Bob said...

The stock market hit an all time record high on Thursday. I find it strange that nobody is talking about it. Not a word at the gym, the water cooler, barely a mention on CNBC, what gives? I would expect to see a lot more greed and excitement kicking in.

This bull market is something special. There have been only 2 bull markets that have lasted longer (since 1929).

This bull market has delivered a 315% gain since it started. That's the second best percentage gain ever.

Honeybee, will you help me celebrate another new all time high and 6 years of very large and very painless stock market gains? It seems nobody else cares.



Honeybee said...

John D......like so many words that have been confiscated to serve certain agendas, democrat is the right word. Democratic is a description that democrats like to be called.

Honeybee said...

Ghost of Bob.....Absolutely. We could have a party! Maybe a costume party with all the Bobs wearing masks - or in your case, a sheet.

Gawd said...

Honeybee, regarding your question about why someone would choose to leave the US and retire in Thailand, my overall answer would be because they can retire earlier due to the reduced cost of living and what one spends money on here from food to frolics delivers as high, higher or, most commonly, much higher a bang for the buck of any place I’ve lived or traveled in the US. I’ll even go so far as to say year ‘round the weather is better in Bangkok, where I live, than where I lived for several decades on or within half hour’s driving distance from the beach in Southern California.

Of course, it is not all upside. Ultimately, you are a stranger in a strange land. But then, some US citizen retirees in the good ol’ USA might feel the same way these days. Lol. But the downsides are definitely overwhelmed by the upsides, imo.

Rather than list the nitty-gritty details on this particular forum about all or most of the other upsides as they relate to me, it just happens that I read an article on a popular Thailand expat website yesterday that I will provide a link for here since it really struck a nerve for me on so many levels. Can’t say I agree with the author on everything. But, for the most part, he really nailed it for me in my experience and, coincidentally, his time spent living in Thailand is roughly the same amount of time I’ve lived here so far.

Bear in mind, this author is coming to his assessment from the point of view of a worker, an employee at a job in the US, not as a grand success in a career he loves or business owner who can't wait to get to the shop every day. If someone has such a life and career in the US, then the benefits of retiring in a developing country with a different language and dramatically different culture would not be so apparent and that person would probably be better off staying put, not retiring fully at all, and continue enjoying what he or she is doing.

Moreover, if someone (men, I'm talking about mostly) is beautifully integrated into a social life, a family life or even a one-on-one partnership or marriage in the US from which he derives immeasurable comfort and joy, then don’t waste your time thinking about walking away from all that and retiring in Thailand. Stay where you are, cherish what you have, count yourself a big winner in life after having done the work to make that happen.

The article I happened to read just yesterday:

After 3+ Years in Thailand, Reflections From Home
By Rich Archer
May, 2015
http://www.stickmanbangkok.com/ReadersSubmissions2015/reader9143.html

Pig said...

Ms HB.............Thanks for not deleting the post that I didn't make, and many posts from the last 10 years even though Anon asks for that and Juni doesn't think any are funny. (His fixed income results are hilarious, however).

AAR, I still see the trashcan at the bottom of my notes. I always thought it was for depositing Brinker's advice and recommendations. (((ROAR)))

Honeybee said...

Pig yah.....I've been accused of many things on this blog, being called a liberal is a first. LOL!

And as anyone who has been around for more than 15 minutes knows, I bend over way backwards to let all opinions be expressed - even the outrageous ones.

But if someone has a beef and I make a reasonable effort to work it out and get rewarded with more insults, I will draw the line.

Do not expect to hear from JM on this blog anymore. He refused to apologize for his ridiculous accusations and just sent more insults - which I did not publish.

Pig said...

Honeybee said.. Do not expect to hear from JM on this blog anymore.

I'm not sure that I'd notice since I skipped over his posts anyway....Borrrrrring.

AAR, he will be back just like Anon (impy), and Bob (x27) with a different ID.

gabe said...

Horse racing attendance has decreased over these many years except for the triple crown.

OTB and phone betting has taken over.

Nothing running today at my Barn. One second place finish in 3 races this weekend.

Surprised that Bob aired live yesterday.

Gabe

Honeybee said...

Nope, you didn't understand me, Pig.

I will not publish anything that JM says until he apologizes for his false accusations and name-calling.

Bluce said...

Honey: After reading the last few posts I went back and read the end of the previous thread, which I hadn't since yesterday.

It appears JM has gone off the proverbial deep end, although I didn't attempt to figure all of it out.

LOL, always something interesting here!

Jeffchristie said...

Bob Brinkers third hour guest claimed that people who were successful didn't achieve it on their own but were benefits of luck. Brinker himself may be an example of this. He has admitted that he owes his success to going to a great high school run by the Christian brothers because of money provided by his aunt and uncle. Where would Brinker be today if he was condemned to attending a public high school. My quess is he would be a struggling sports announcer for some two bit minor league baseball club.

And what about those thousands of people that call in and give Bob all the credit for reaching critical mass. They would probable be living paycheck to paychect like most American with poor prospects of retiring. Thank God for luck.

Honeybee said...

Jeffchristie...You are correct about Bob Brinker giving credit for a "life-altering" gift from an aunt and uncle that made it possible for him to attend an elite school.

Brinker talked about it on Sunday, but I didn't cover it because he has talked about it several times before and I have covered it.

For those who want to go to the archives and listen, he was doing one of his non-response responses to Joan in Minneapolis about 45-50 minutes into the second hour.

gabe said...

I would like to salute my fellow veterans on this most important day...Memorial Day!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

Gabe and all....I too, would like to sincerely thank all those who are veterans.

And my gratitude to all who served, which include my husband, my brother, and my father.

gabe said...

Market melt down! Surging dollar part of the problem? Profit taking. A correction in the making?

Gabe

Honeybee said...

Gabe....Why is it that Brinker used to say a high dollar was good for the stock market?

gabe said...

HB: I believe in "ordinary times" that would be the case. However, most recently, good news is bad for the stock market while bad news is good. Crazy eh!

Gabe

Jeffchristie said...

Bob's third hour guest said that health care in America is broken. I haven't found that to be the case with my provider. I go to Cleveland clinic Florida. People like the professor usually praise countries like Canada and England. If it is so great why is the Prince of Whales listed as a patient of the Cleveland clinic? Heads of state come from around the world to the Cleveland clinic for their health care needs.

Fortune.com:Cleveland Clinic

Kudos to Bob for having this space cadet as a guest on the starship.

Bluce said...

Jeffchristie: No doubt some forms of socialized, top-down government-run medicine are better than others.

Thanks to The Affordable Care Act (cough) my health expenses have about doubled. I'm self-employed so they were very high even before becoming "affordable."

And, IMO, in the past 10-20 years, as government has gotten more and more involved, the system has degraded.

Paperwork, paperwork, and more paperwork for everybody, doctor visits are less efficient, and despite all the hype about lawsuits, doctors and surgeons are becoming less accountable. Malpractice lawsuits are extremely difficult to win.

tfb said...

Gang,

I was finally able to speak to an actual Social Security actuary. And the results are what I suspected. This much touted benefit delaying Social Security is total nonsense actuarially.


The only way you benefit is if you have a very strong reason to suspect you will live longer than your average bear and then you do.

Stated differently if you live to your expected life expectancy when you elect to take social security is irrelevant; you will receive the same amount of money, adjusted for inflation no matter when you start (Note this does not consider taxation!!!)

Given this it might behoove you to consider why the sudden drumbeat to delay taking SS; I can think of many calculated political reasons, but at present I'll spare the forum my diatribe.

bob said...

I think the Prince of Whales probably goes to the Florida clinic because it's much more convenient than swimming all the way up to the Mayo Clinic.

Uncle Bo said...

Thank you, Honey_bee, for your usual superb Moneytalk summary.

I think George from New York's call may have given us a peek behind the curtain of what's currently going on at the Moneytalk broadcast. My conclusion is that not many people are calling in. Here's what I mean:

First, we know that George hadn't been waiting very long on the line since his question was about something Bob had mentioned in the opening monologue (the time frame involved on the $700 we're all saving from lower gasoline prices). So George was able to get right in just a few minutes before Bob took the call.

Second, Bob let this guy rant on and on about something Bob could have quickly cleared up by simply telling George that the time period was a year. George sounded like a spoiled kid taunting a parent as he kept badgering with ridiculous time periods ("a month? a week? a day? every 10 minutes?"). I was shocked that Bob was totally silent for a good period of time as George made a fool of himself. Eventually, of course, as you said, Bob began talking back as George continued spouting.

I just wonder if Bob felt he had no choice but to let George continue since maybe there were no other callers at that moment. Bob usually has no patience with people like that.

Just a thought.

Honeybee said...

Thanks to Uncle Bo for that great analysis of the first caller on Moneytalk.

Unfortunately, we know that some stations are not carrying the first hour of the program -- such as KSFO in San Francisco. I wonder if that affects the number of callers.

Honeybee said...

Mark Hulbert has an article in Marketwatch this morning. It's about the "Irrational Exuberance" of the stock market and how "timers" may react to yesterday's sell-off.

We know how Bob Brinker will react: "Ho-Hum! Wake me when it turns into a bear (20% decline) and I'll clam up until it's over." -- Or something very similar. :)

Here are some excerpts.

(SNIP)

It, therefore, will be crucial to see how the market timers react to the decline that began earlier this week. If they largely shrug it off as no big deal, as they have in recent weeks, then contrarians would suggest that an even deeper decline will be necessary to rebuild the so-called wall of worry that markets like to climb.

We would be spared this sobering fate if, in contrast, the market timers quickly become scared and, en masse, run for the exits. In that event, the bull market might be given another lease on life.

We will know soon enough. But, for now, contrarians are worried.

gabe said...

Market shenanigans!

Gabe

Jerrod Clarkson said...


gabe said...

"Market shenanigans!"


Jerrod Clarkson says:

Gabe, I wholeheartedly concur. I am not sure if "da boyz" even look at fundamentals and technicals these days.

Good is Bad. Bad is Good.

Risk-ON. Risk-OFF.

We no longer have a market of stocks. Unfortunately it has been supplanted with an algo-driven "reality show" (with all the nonsense and idiocy that engenders). Game theory (especially "the greater fool" theory) has governed the market for the past several years.

Eat or be eaten.

Jerrod Clarkson.

gabe said...

Jerrod: Well said!

Gabe

gabe said...

Back and forth!


Gabe

bob said...

Here's what HB's old friend Rande has to say about when to take Social Security benefits.

Don’t use your break-even age

Advisers sometimes suggest, as part of the process, that you ought to determine the age at which you would come out ahead if you delay Social Security. In other words, the experts want you to determine your break-even age.


Now the break-even age, according to an analysis by Rande Spiegelman, a vice president of financial planning at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, depends on the amount of your benefits and the assumptions you use to account for taxes and the opportunity cost of waiting.


In his analysis, Spiegelman calculated the break-even ages for a top wage earner turning 62 in 2013 with monthly benefits (in 2013 dollars) at ages 62 and one month of $1,923; 66, $2,591; and 70, $3,447. And what he found was this: The break-even age is between:

77 and 78 for the top wage earner deciding whether to take Social Security early at age 62 vs. at age 66, the full retirement age (FRA);

80 and 81 for those deciding whether to take Social Security early at age 62 or at age 70; and

83 and 84 for those deciding whether to take Social Security at FRA vs. at age 70.

Read When Should You Take Social Security?


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-strategies-to-get-the-most-social-security-2014-03-15?page=1

Honeybee said...

That's a great article, Bob. Good to read that my old friend, Rande Spegielman is being recognized as an expert financial advisor.

Wonder what color Brinker will turn when he reads that? He always hated Rande because he was such a class act.

Here's the link live: Marketwatch: Five Strategies to Get the Most Social Security

gabe said...

What a lousy market today!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

OOPS! Revised economy report shrunk to 0.7% in Q-1.....

Jerrod Clarkson said...

Ed Gilligan, R.I.P.
One of the truly good guys passes away at age 55.

The following letter is from Ken Chenault, American Express Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, to American Express employees today:

____________________________________________


TO: All American Express Employees and Contractors
FROM: Ken Chenault
SUBJECT: Ed Gilligan
DATE May 29, 2015

With the heaviest of hearts, I must share some devastating news. Ed Gilligan – President of our company and friend and inspiration to many inside and outside American Express – became seriously ill on a flight home to New York this morning and has passed away.

This is deeply painful and frankly unimaginable for all of us who had the great fortune to work with Ed, and benefit from his insights, leadership and enthusiasm. Our thoughts and prayers go out to his wife, Lisa, and their four children – Katie, Meaghan, Kevin and Shane. He was a proud husband and father, and his love for his family was evident in all that he did.

Ed also loved American Express. He devoted his entire career to this company, starting as an intern 35 years ago and moving steadily up all the way to Vice Chairman in 2007 and President in 2013. His contributions have left an indelible imprint on practically every area of our business, from Commercial Card and Travel to International, Consumer, Small Business, Merchant Services, Network Services and, most recently, the group forging our digital partnerships and driving payment innovations. Ed was a living embodiment of our values, embracing both our heritage of service, trust and integrity, as well as our entrepreneurial spirit that has helped continually transform this company through the years. For the time being, I have asked Ed’s direct leaders to report to me.

The mark of a true leader is followership, and Ed won the hearts and minds of many thousands. He was a champion of diversity and employee development, and his mentorship has helped create a legacy of strong leaders wherever he went. We mourn his loss, and we will have opportunities to share our memories of him more fully in the coming days. More details will be communicated next week.

In this moment, I know you will join me in personal remembrances of Ed.

___________________________________



Jerrod Clarkson

muddlehead said...

HB- Glad I rediscovered your blog. Great summaries of the shows and enjoyable comments. Interesting Rande jumped into the Soc Sec discussion. Big fan of Rande. I retired from Schwab 2001 after many years, and, probably that's about the time he started at Schwab. And prior to that he had his terrific Ask Rande thread - Was that on Bob's own site? I digress. Back to Soc Sec. I think I've got a good handle on the topic. Critical mass, wife and I early sixties, each of us 10 years retired etc...We do not need either of our Soc Sec payments. So what is a couple like us doing? Delaying as long as possible? No. Taking hers this month, she turned 62 two months ago (takes 2 months to get first check into our Schwab One account no less.)I turn 62 in two years. I will take mine the very first day also at age 62. After whatever taxes are due on the Soc Sec payments, money will be invested like the rest of our portfolios. So, love you Rande. Agree to disagree on this one. Take the money asap. Invest. Easy peasy.

gabe said...

Our Barn just had a horse cross the finish line first in a $25,000 claimer!

We have 2 going tomorrow!

Gabe

Honeybee said...

Hi Muddlehead....Welcome back.

It's nice to hear from someone who remembers Kirks' Suite 101 message boards....It was great while it lasted. I probably knew you as a different handle....

Yes, Rande was amazingly generous to give of his time for the readers of that site -- totally free, and never asked for anything or wanted to sell anything. Sure missed him when he went with Schwab and professionally could not post on message boards anymore.

frankj said...

Way to go Gabe! That'll buy 185 subscriptions to MarketTimer!

Mad as HELL said...

My thoughts on when to take S.S. benefits are far less complex.

Simply put, one should take Social Security benefits the date they become eligible (and while the SS trust fund is still solvent).

On an inflation-adjusted basis:

If your lifetime benefits equal the amount that you and your employer(s) contributed you have done well.

If your lifetime benefits exceed the amount that you and your employer(s) contributed you have done exceptionally well! Congratulations are in order!


http://www.nbcnews.com/business/retirement/social-security-may-be-worse-shape-we-thought-study-n355956

george aikens said...

If your lifetime benefits exceed the amount that you and your employer(s) contributed you have done exceptionally well! Congratulations are in order!"

Yea...you are now on old age government welfare handouts!

Bluce said...

Knowing when to take SS is easy.

If you know the day you will die, then it's just simple math.

Anonymous said...

This is the physician who made a comment early in this string.
Regarding Kleinbard's use of infant mortality to trash the quality of US healthcare: Baloney. Lots of things affect infant mortality that have nothing to do with the healthcare system (but has a lot to do with destruction of family structure by liberal social welfare policies). Why didn't Kleinbard cite cancer survival, which is dramatically better in the US than elsewhere?
There is a reason that people vote with their feet and come to the U.S. when they have major health issues.

gabe said...

The June swoon is upon us! Buckle up!

Gabe

frankj said...

Dr. Physician,

I'm glad you gave some insight into the infant mortality claim by last week's guest. My thought was there are some important variables that it is impossible to control for in ranking countries. Risks like smoking, drinking during pregnancy and risks after mother and baby go home for example.

Dan G said...

The odds favor a drop of the S&P 500 in June. In the last 10 years there have been 3 up years; 7 down years; ave. return = -1.40%. This doesn't mean a drop this year for sure, but those are the odds. So be prepared for a disappointing month, and be happy if it turns out to be ok.

- Dan G

Honeybee said...

Dan....I am going to copy your important comments into the latest (May 31st) Moneytalk summary comments....