May 26, 2012....Bob Brinker recommends investing a portion of equity holdings in international mutual funds. Each of his Marketimer model portfolios have weightings of Vanguard International (VWIGX) and Vanguard All-World Funds (VFWIX).
In January 2012, Brinker raised the weighting on the Vanguard International Growth Fund by 5%. He sold all holdings (5%) in the Dodge and Cox International Fund. Since then, Vanguard's International Funds have done better than Dodge and Cox, but much worse than the total stock market fund.
Vanguard High Yield Bond Fund CLOSING TO MOST NEW INVESTORS:
Due to a sharp increase in cash flow into Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund—more than $2 billion in the last six months alone—we've closed the fund to most new investors.
While issuance of high-yield securities remains strong (the first quarter of 2012 saw the highest amount on record), we remain sensitive to the potential liquidity challenges that can arise in the market. Because of this potential, we've determined that limiting cash flow into the fund is in the best interest of its existing investors. This move will help the fund's advisor, Wellington Management Company, continue to execute its high-quality approach to high-yield investing.(SNIP)
Was it coincidence that Bob Brinker first added Vanguard High-Yield Fund to Marketimer fixed income portfolio on April 11, 2003 and $1.4 billion flooded into the fund in June 2003?
This isn't the first time Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund has closed because of high demand. In June 2003, the fund closed after it had a cash inflow of $1.4 billion during the first five months of the year. The fund reopened about six months later after cash flow slowed to a more manageable level.
I don't know for sure how Brinker handles a fund that he recommends when it is closed. As I recall, in the past, he has made a switch into a different but comparable fund. However, Brinker thinks that Vanguard High-Yield Fund is in a class by itself.
11 comments:
The money is pouring into High Yield right now. Just last month T.Rowe Price closed its High Yield fund on Apr. 27. Many top performers in this catagory are from "loaded" fund families so we know Brinker won't recommend those. JNK is an alternative but at least this year it hasn't done as well as Vanguard.
Since this is a holiday weekend I do not expect Brinker to do Moneytalk today, so we must wait at least another week to learn what Brinker has decided.
What would be the benefit of Vanguard High Yield Corporate now? I thought Bob was not recommending bond fund investments now.
Earlier comments on High Yield:
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blogspot.com/2012_04_01_archive.html
That provides the context for the holdings.
Jim, I agree that Bob Brinker probably won't be on the air today. Too bad because I'm sure many are interested to hear him comment on this closing.
When it happened in 2003, I was keeping track of Bob Brinker on Suite 101 on Kirk Lindstrom's forums.
After Kirk left Suite 101, all of the Brinker forums were vaporized without warning, so much of it was lost forever -- tens of thousands of posts by hundreds of people. It was a huge historical record of Brinker that began about 2000 and lasted for the next 7 or 8 years.
It was a really dirty thing for them to do. They had reassured Kirk, me and others that they would give ample warning so we could save anything we wanted. The good news is that we did save some of it and have it on permanent file.
We found out later that they were pressured by "someone" to remove any posts about Brinker and never again allow a Brinker thread on their site.
I was told personally that I could not ever write about Bob Brinker or my account would be terminated. When I complained, my account was terminated.
When Kirk was moderator on those forums, he was also threatened, but he told Bob Brinker to prove his claim that anything untrue was said about him or get lost.
Matt,
Why would you think that Bob Brinker is not recommending bond funds now?
He recently added DoubleLine Total Return Fund to his income portfolio. Still holds some Ginnie Maes and some short-term Treasurys, in addition to the high-yield fund.
Matt,
Here is the paragraph you are referring to:
Honey EC: Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio III (which is part of his "official performance record) has a 20% weighting in Ginnie Maes and no Vanguard's High Yield Fund. The only other fixed income mutual fund that is in this portfolio is a 10% weighting in Vanguard's Short Term Investment Grade (VFSTX).
Consequently, the portfolio is now closer to 70% in equities. The last time it became this heavily weighted in equities, the 2008 megabear market arrived. That quickly returned the balance because the portfolio lost over 23% that year.
Posted here
Ms Honey stated, as a FACT
I was told personally that I could not ever write about Bob Brinker or my account would be terminated. When I complained, my account was terminated.
OH MY GOODNESS! That doesn't sound very patriotic or American.
I'm sure that your best friend Allan stuck up for you, and for FREE SPEECH, and not for some type of foreign censorship...........didn't he?
Any guesses on who the "somebody (or noobody) that complained was", or am I TOTALLY STOOPID?
Honeybee wrote:
"After Kirk left Suite 101, all of the Brinker forums were vaporized without warning, so much of it was lost forever -- tens of thousands of posts by hundreds of people. It was a huge historical record of Brinker that began about 2000 and lasted for the next 7 or 8 years.
Not quite. My first Brinker discussion forum started in 1997, three years before you found us. At first, Brinker was so impressed with my "fan club" that he linked to it from his own web site. It was ONLY after I REFUSED to take down a question asking if he got money from UTEK for recommending the stock that he got mad at me and removed the link and the attacks began. Later Steve T asked Paul Kangas to ask Bob Brinker on National TV if UTEK paid him or his firm. Brinker said they got money for managing 401Ks or something... then Brinker refused all further invitations to appear on NBR as a "Friday Market Monitor."
Kirk,
Thank you for setting the record straight. I was not aware that you had begun your Suite101 Bob Brinker Fan Club in 1997 -- three years before I arrived.
Actually, it was just luck that I found you. I was posting on the Bob Brinker message boards when all the "stuff" started to happen between the Brinker's and Suite101. (Brinker Jr was the webmaster.)
People were talking about how many posters were leaving Bob Brinker's boards for this other "not-to-be-mentioned site." I was totally in the dark, but just before they stopped people from posting their emails, I posted mine -- hoping for the best.
You must have seen it before it was deleted because you sent me a note with an invitation to join your forums.
Much happened during that time and the Brinker's became brown shirt censor-bots and were banning people daily.
After my first post at Suite 101, saying that I disapproved of the Brinker censorship, I was banned from the Brinker threads.
Pig asked:
"I'm sure that your best friend Allan stuck up for you, and for FREE SPEECH, and not for some type of foreign censorship...........didn't he?
Any guesses on who the "somebody (or noobody) that complained was", or am I TOTALLY STOOPID?"
Pig,
You are asking about allan coleman. Nope, he celebrated Canadian Suite 101's decision to "burn the books."
If you are "stoopid" then so am I, because I think the same as you do about the "somebody" behind it.
And to clarify, I don't think little allancoleman had that much influence.
Here is a page about my Suite 101 Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz that Kirk has evidently archived. It reminds me that I need to include more of Will's great writing about Bob Brinker -- he was the best.
Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz 2
Discuss Moneytalk, Marketimer and Bob Brinker's investment advice
Feb 25, 2007
Kirk Lindstrom:
The original "Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz" had over 2000 posts in it. That caused the forum to load and update slowly so I made this new forum for posts 2001-4000.
Our member, "Honeyonoehone," moderates the discussion forum "Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz 2." She set the terms for participation in her first post in the original forum reprinted below.
We have another Bob Brinker forum here:
Bob Brinker FREE Forum: 61,408+ Posts and growing!
Please read both forums to get all sides of the issues from several perspectives.
From: February 20, 2006 9:58 AM -- posted by honeyoneohone:
Bob Brinker promotes himself to the public as a “market timer.” Many people who listen to his radio program trust him and make life-altering financial decisions based on what he recommends. Therefore, it is proper to question the validity of Brinker’s self-proclaimed market-timing abilities. It is fair, even desirable to ask: Where, when and how has Bob Brinker been duplicitous?
While Bob Brinker has many devoted fans, there are others who have honest complaints about his advice record. There are those who believe that Brinker's past record is less than exemplary. There are those who are aware that some of Brinker’s biggest blunders are not transparent to recent Bob Brinker’s Marketimer subscribers or radio listeners--there are those who believe that this is the result of deliberate cover-ups.
This thread will be an informal forum, designed to present much needed transparency to Bob Brinker’s record. It will tell “the rest of the story” which is not heard on the air or read in Brinker's Market Timer.
Some of our favorite subjects for discussion will be:
Anything Brinker talks about on his radio program.
His history of marketiming recommendations.
All of his past and present investment advice.
His past and present stock recommendations.
What he said when he posted as “donlane/mistertopes.”
His outlook for the future of the markets and the economy.
You can also look forward to the “Best of Will L.” I will be archiving many of his posts here for you. Will is one of the most knowledgeable and prolific Bob Brinker critics, and he is an entertaining and very informative writer.
All are welcome, even encouraged, to join in the discussions and try to poke holes in any arguments I post here (I want to be fair and balanced), but we must follow the Suite 101 TOS rules.
Links to other sites that do not allow me to post links back to quotes at this site will not be posted here.
DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but ME. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
February 20, 2006 9:58 AM -- posted by honeyoneohone
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